Next Day's Games

Final

Germany 1-0 (ET) Argentina (Gotze 113')

Thursday, September 22, 2011

September Awards Wrapup

So I wanted to do something to wrap up each set of matchdays. I had a few ideas but kept coming back to one. I attempted to think of ways to personalize it but it's just done so well by the original author I'm going to use his format for my blog.

So presenting the September 2011 World Cup Qualifying Awards in the style of Yahoo! Sports Tom Dienhart. Link below if you're curious to see his version of it for college football (please click the link, it won't bite and hopefully Yahoo won't in turn take issue with me doing this)

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1266878

COACHES

Wish I were him: Holger Osieck, Australia
Glad I'm not him: Mike Adams, Grenada
Lucky guy: Alberto Zaccheroni, Japan
Poor guy: Vadim Abramov, Uzbekistan
Desperately seeking a clue: Frank Rijkaard, Saudi Arabia
Desperately seeking a P.R. man: Hugo Almeida, Guatemala
Desperately seeking sunglasses and a fake beard: Srecko Katanec, U.A.E.
Desperately seeking ... anything: Terrence Jones, U.S. Virgin Islands

TEAMS
Thought you'd kick butt, you did: Haiti
Thought you'd kick butt, you didn't: Oman
Thought you'd get your butt kicked, you did: U.S. Virgin Islands
Thought you'd get your butt kicked, you didn't: Thailand
Dang, they're good: Jordan
Dang, they're bad: Saint Lucia
Did qualifying start? Grenada
Can qualifying end? U.A.E.
Can qualifying never end? Guatemala

GAMES
Play this again: Japan 1-1 Uzbekistan
Never play this again: Antigua/Barbuda 8-1 U.S. Virgin Islands
What? Suriname 1-1 Dominican Republic
Huh? Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica
Are you kidding me? Lebanon 3-1 U.A.E.
Oh ? my ? God: Thailand 3-0 Oman
Told you so: Belize 3-0 Grenada

NEXT MONTH
Ticket to die for: Chile at Argentina
Best marquee matchup: Iraq at China
Best non-marquee matchup: Panama at Nicaragua
Upset alert: Peru at Chile
Must win: Belize at Guatemala
Great game no one is talking about: Uruguay at Paraguay
Who's bringing the body bags? Tajikistan at Japan

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

South America Round 1 Primer

World Ranking

Argentina-10th (3rd South America)
Bolivia-81st (10th South America)
Chile-14th (4th South America)
Colombia-32nd (6th South America)
Ecuador-69th (9th South America)
Paraguay-24th (5th South America)
Peru-35th (7th South America)
Uruguay-4th (1st South America)
Venezuela-47th (8th South America)

Schedule (long...a theme for this preview)

October 7, 2011
  • Bolivia vs. Uruguay
  • Venezuela vs. Ecuador
  • Chile vs. Argentina
  • Paraguay vs. Peru
October 11, 2011
  • Colombia vs. Bolivia
  • Peru vs. Chile
  • Uruguay vs. Paraguay
  • Argentina vs. Venezuela
November 11, 2011
  • Bolivia vs. Argentina
  • Ecuador vs. Paraguay
  • Venezuela vs. Colombia
  • Chile vs. Uruguay
November 15, 2011
  • Argentina vs. Colombia
  • Bolivia vs. Venezuela
  • Paraguay vs. Chile
  • Peru vs. Ecuador
June 2, 2012
  • Ecuador vs. Argentina
  • Chile vs. Bolivia
  • Colombia vs. Peru
  • Venezuela vs. Uruguay
June 9, 2012
  • Paraguay vs. Bolivia
  • Chile vs. Venezuela
  • Peru vs. Uruguay
  • Colombia vs. Ecuador
September 7, 2012
  • Uruguay vs. Colombia
  • Bolivia vs. Ecuador
  • Paraguay vs. Argentina
  • Venezuela vs. Peru
September 11, 2012
  • Argentina vs. Peru
  • Ecuador vs. Uruguay
  • Colombia vs. Chile
  • Venezuela vs. Paraguay
October 12, 2012
  • Uruguay vs. Argentina
  • Paraguay vs. Colombia
  • Chile vs. Ecuador
  • Peru vs. Bolivia
October 16, 2012
  • Uruguay vs. Bolivia
  • Peru vs. Paraguay
  • Argentina vs. Chile
  • Ecuador vs. Venezuela
March 22, 2013
  • Venezuela vs. Argentina
  • Paraguay vs. Uruguay
  • Chile vs. Peru
  • Bolivia vs. Colombia
March 26, 2013
  • Argentina vs. Bolivia
  • Paraguay vs. Ecuador
  • Uruguay vs. Chile
  • Colombia vs. Venezuela
June 7, 2013
  • Colombia vs. Argentina
  • Venezuela vs. Bolivia
  • Chile vs. Paraguay
  • Ecuador vs. Peru
June 11, 2013
  • Argentina vs. Ecuador
  • Bolivia vs. Chile
  • Peru vs. Colombia
  • Uruguay vs. Venezuela
September 6, 2013
  • Bolivia vs. Paraguay
  • Venezuela vs. Chile
  • Uruguay vs. Peru
  • Ecuador vs. Colombia
September 10, 2013
  • Colombia vs. Uruguay
  • Ecuador vs. Bolivia
  • Argentina vs, Paraguay
  • Peru vs. Venezuela
October 11, 2013
  • Peru vs. Argentina
  • Uruguay vs. Ecuador
  • Chile vs. Colombia
  • Paraguay vs. Venezuela
October 15, 2013
  • Argentina vs. Uruguay
  • Colombia vs. Paraguay
  • Ecuador vs. Chile
  • Bolivia vs. Peru
Past International Records

Argen
tina
  • 2011 to date: 7-2-5
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 12-7-4
  • vs. Group opponents: 249-67-101
Bolivia
  • 2011 to date: 0-5-5
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-11-3
  • vs. Group opponents: 68-151-73
Chile
  • 2011 to date: 4-3-5
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 12-7-3
  • vs. Group opponents: 158-162-95
Colombia
  • 2011 to date: 5-3-1
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-7-5
  • vs. Group opponents: 98-102-82
Ecuador
  • 2011 to date: 3-3-7
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-7-5
  • vs. Group opponents: 69-139-68
Paraguay
  • 2011 to date: 5-3-7
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 11-6-6
  • vs. Group opponents: 169-144-95
Peru
  • 2011 to date: 4-2-6
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-11-4
  • vs. Group opponents: 117-169-85
Uruguay
  • 2011 to date: 6-2-4
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 9-8-8
  • vs. Group opponents: 213-128-105
Venezuela
  • 2011 to date: 5-6-5
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-8-4
  • vs. Group opponents: 39-120-38
Main thing you should take away from this; these teams play each other a lot. And because this comprises all of CONMEBOL except Brazil there's a lot of games over a lot of years to account for. Saying these teams are familiar with each other would definitely be an understatement. Only 3 of the 9 teams listed have winning records, primarily a result of Argentina's dominance over everyone else. Colombia has the most respectable record against Argentina with only 8 more losses then wins.

A few other interesting statistics:

Series with most games played: Argentina/Uruguay. 101 games played.
Series with fewest games played: Argentina/Venezuela. 18 games played.
Series with most wins/losses: Argentina/Chile. Argentina leads 51-6-21.
Series with most ties: Argentina/Paraguay and Argentina/Uruguay. Both series have 26 ties.
Series with highest/lowest winning percentage: Argentina/Venezuela. Argentina has won all 18 matches the teams played in history.
Series closest to .500: Ecuador/Venezuela (11-10-1 Venezuela) and Colombia/Peru (15-14-18 Peru).

Team Glimpses

Argentina

Argentina has the best overall record, Most Finals appearances and most World Cup championships (tied with Uruguay) of all the teams in CONMEBOL qualifying. And yet a lot of questions float around this team. Are they mentally focused? Are they wasting all the talent they have? Are they too old? Very few nations have the passion for international soccer as Argentina and much is demanded from the national team. 2 focuses for Argentina in qualifying. Can they find some kind of attacking option that makes use of all the great options available to them (Messi, Tevez, Di Maria, Higuain, Aguero, etc.)? Argentina has no dearth of attacking options, but finding combos that work for them has been a struggle. And can their defence hold up? Argentina's goal differential in 2010 qualifying was a mere +3 in 18 games and they were booted from the 2010 World Cup on the back of a 4-0 defeat to Germany who ran circles around the Argentina back line. Argentina should have the luxury of using qualifying to work out some of these problems but should they fall in to a rut at any point in qualifying, don't be surprised if their fans turn on them and the team falls in to a panic mode.

Bolivia

Bolivia holds the dubious honour of being the only CONMEBOL team without a victory in 2011, a bad sign heading in to a stretch of 4 qualifying matches in 5 weeks. Surprisingly, their best result of 2011 came in the Copa America when Bolivia tied Argentina 1-1. Rather then use that as a momentum boost, Bolivia promptly dropped a pair of 2-0 losses to Colombia and Costa Rica. Bolivia doesn't have the talent to compete with most of the other CONMEBOL teams, and they lack the depth to be able to grind out points in a long qualifying campaign. Long way to go until qualifying ends but Bolivia is already a longshot to qualify out of South America.

Chile

In a bit of a surprise, Chile finished 2010 qualifying just one point out of 1st place. A big reason for that is their prolific offence which scored 32 goals in 18 games last campaign, second only to Brazil. South America is known for fast-paced attacking soccer but Chile is a team that tries to take that to a whole new level. They are a team that can pile on goals when in a rhythm but can also be susceptible to counter-attacks as a result. Chile might want to consider reeling in their offence a bit this time around to ensure more defensive zone responsibility (22 goals allowed in 18 games in 2010 qualifying). Chile will benefit more then most teams this campaign from Brazil's non-participation. 2 of their 5 losses last campaign came to Brazil, who also knocked Chile out in the 2010 Finals.

Colombia

Colombia is looking to return to the World Cup Finals having failed to qualify for the last 3 tournaments after featuring in all 3 Finals in the 1990s. Biggest thing for Colombia is consistency, they're a team that doesn't always show up 100% and if you do that against anyone in CONMEBOL, odds are you're going to lose. Colombia is in good form right now having gone 2-1-1 at the Copa America which included a draw with Argentina. Since then they've picked up a pair of victories in friendlies versus Jamaica and Honduras. Colombia has one of the easiest 2011 schedules of a CONMEBOL team (away to Bolivia, home to Venezuela and Argentina) and needs to take advantage of that and jump out to an early lead. Colombia has the strength to qualify for the Finals, but they need to show up every game, something they aren't known for.

Ecuador

Good news for Ecuador; they enter qualifying on a 3-game win streak. Bad news; they didn't record a win in 10 games prior to that and those 3 wins were in meaningless games against inferior competition. Ranked 9th (of 10) in CONMEBOL, Ecuador has fallen a long way from the team that advanced to the Round of 16 in the 2006 World Cup. If you need to see where the downturn really occurred, look no further then 2010 qualifying. Ecuador finished 6th, 1 spot out of a playoff berth with CONCACAF and just 1 point behind Uruguay. Needing just 1 win in their final 2 matches, Ecuador could not close things out losing to Uruguay and Chile in the final month of qualifying ensuring they would not go to South Africa. Losses like those can be devastating and Ecuador does not appear to have recovered from those defeats. A new qualifying period provides an opportunity to recover but it's possible that the will and determination of this team has been irreparably damaged.

Paraguay

I
don't know if any team on the world stage is consistently overlooked as much as Paraguay is. Paraguay is coming off of 4 straight World Cup Final appearances, a quarterfinal berth in 2010 and a 2nd place finish in the Copa America this year. And yet when people talk about the powers in South America, it's usually limited to Brazil, Argentina and recently, Uruguay. I can't see Paraguay complaining about flying under the radar but they deserve to be in the same conversation with those other teams. Like Chile, Paraguay finished 10-5-3 in 2010 qualifying and only a last day loss to Colombia prevented them from finishing first in the group. Unlike Chile is Paraguay's strategy and approach to the game. Paraguay is much more of a defensive-minded team surrendering less then 1 goal per game through the 2010 World Cup. Paraguay won't score as many goals as other South American teams but they are very sound in their own end and can win games with their defence.

Peru

I'm a little skeptical of Peru's success so far in 2011. Peru has just 2 losses on the year and is coming off a shock 3rd-place finish at the Copa America. But this is also a team that hasn't qualified for the finals since 1982, finished last in 2010 qualifying and was nearly kicked out of that campaign for governmental interference. Maybe I just haven't seen enough of them; maybe they've made a huge turnaround in the past couple years. But until I see a few games in this campaign, I remain cautious. Peru scored the fewest goals last campaign (11) and surrendered second most (34, (Bolivia, 36)). Both of those numbers need to change drastically if Peru wants any shot at qualifying.

Uruguay

Made true by virture of their winning the Copa America, Uruguay is the best team in South America right now. And yes, that includes Brazil and Argentina. Despite a shaky qualifying run which barely got Uruguay to South Africa, this team finished in 4th place and has been on a tear ever since. Biggest hurdle for Uruguay will be in replacing aging stars. Star player Diego Forlan is 32, and 7 other players on their most recent roster will be in their 30's come 2014. Whether or not Uruguay can usher in a new generation of players that can maintain their current level of play may be the biggest obstacle to challenging for the World Cup in 2014.

Venezuela

Holds the dubious honour of the fewest wins against all group opponents (39). Venezuela has historically had the least success of any team in CONMEBOL having never qualified for a World Cup Final before. One hindrance to Venezuelan success is that unlike most South American nations, most of their national team players play their club soccer domestically. Brazil and Argentina can pull this off as their leagues are almost on par with the top European leagues. Venezuela however is not of that calibre and the players are unable to develop to the same level as other teams can. Keeping players at home is beneficial if your league is of an elite calibre. If it is not, as is the case with Venezuela, you're actually hindering development, which is the case for Venezuela and a partial explanation as to why they've never been to a World Cup Final.

October Games

Game 1
Bolivia at Uruguay
October 7, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, Uruguay

Game 2
Venezuela at Ecuador
October 7, 2011
Time: 5:05 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa, Quito, Ecuador

Game 3
Chile at Argentina
October 7, 2011
Time: 7:10 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Game 4
Paraguay at Peru
October 7, 2011
Time: 9:15 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Jose Diaz, Lima, Peru

Game 5
Colombia at Bolivia
October 11, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz, Bolivia

Game 6
Peru at Chile
October 11, 2011
Time: 6:45 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Santiago, Chile

Game 7
Uruguay at Paraguay
October 11, 2011
Time: 6:45 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco, Asuncion, Paraguay

Game 8
Argentina at Venezuela
October 11, 2011
Time: 8:50 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Jose Antonio Anzoategui, Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela

8 games to preview so I'll run through each one.

Game 1: Worst team in South America on the road against the best team in South America. No game is a gimmie in CONMEBOL but this game is almost an exhibition match for Uruguay.

Game 2: Not much separating these 2 teams. Last played in July and Venezuela picked up a 1-0 win on a second half goal. Automatic advantage needs to be given to the home side in CONMEBOL and I would say Ecuador is a very slight favourite to win this game.

Game 3: Probably the most high-profile match of 2014 qualifying to date. Argentina and Chile are ranked 10th and 14th in the world respectively and this should be a phenomenal opener to their qualifying campaign. Definitely the must-watch game on October 7th.

Game 4: A trap game for Paraguay to open qualifying. Paraguay is coming off a successful qualifying campaign and quarterfinals appearance in South Africa. Peru finished last in 2010 qualifying but surprised everyone with a 3rd place finish at the 2011 Copa America in July. On the road, Paraguay has to be wary of an upset from an up and coming team.

Game 5: First game of qualifying for Colombia who rest on the 7th against a Bolivian team that will probably be looking to rebound from an early loss. Colombia is the better team but Bolivia has the greatest equalizer in the world when playing at home, as their stadium rests almost 12,000 feet ASL. Anyone playing Bolivia in Bolivia, better be in the best condition of their life.

Game 6: Very tough opening stretch of games for both teams coming off games against Paraguay (Peru) and Argentina (Chile). I'm curious to see what happens with Peru in this game; it should be illuminating in regards to whether or not their performance this summer was a fluke or not. Peru could challenge Chile or they could flop miserably on the road, we'll have to wait and find out which it is.

Game 7: A game that is really flying under the radar in qualifying, as it's overshadowed by the Chile-Argentina game 4 days prior. Uruguay is the best team currently in South America but Paraguay is nipping at their heels and gets this game at home. Another must-see game in South American qualifying.

Game 8: I'm a little skeptical of Argentina only because of how badly they struggled in qualifying last campaign. If I give them the benefit of the doubt, they should win this game despite being on the road. But it wouldn't be the first time Argentina's burned me by picking them.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

I try not to take this too seriously but in a 9-team group it's imperative for my sanity to merely observe. If I'm even close on this, that's just perfect. Also important to point out, since each team plays 16 points, put no stock in what happens this round. Qualifying will end almost two years to the week from when these games start. Yes the games are important, but in the grand scheme of things a loss or two is far less important then in other confederations. Last time around, Brazil was the only team to lose less then 5 (of 18) games and Uruguay qualified with 6 losses. It's a grind in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Anyway, here goes:

Argentina-4 pts
Chile-4 pts
Uruguay-4 pts
Ecuador-3 pts
Paraguay-2 pts
Bolivia-1 pts
Colombia-1 pts
Peru-1 pts
Venezuela-0 pts

September Review: North America-Group 6

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Haiti def. U.S. Virgin Islands 6-0 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti on September 2, 2011
  • Haiti Goals-James Marcelin (18'), Jean-Eudes Maurice (27'), Listner Pierre-Louis (44'), Jean Monuma (61'), Jean Marc Alexandre (65', 78')
Game 2-Antigua/Barbuda def. Curacao 5-2 in St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda on September 2, 2011
  • Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Marc Joseph (42'), Quinton Griffith (45+2'), Tamarley Thomas (54'), Peter Byers (75', 80')
  • Curacao Goals-Rihairo Meulens (9'), Rocky Siberie (74')
Game 3-Antigua/Barbuda def. U.S. Virgin Islands 8-1 in Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands on September 6, 2011
  • Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Ranjae Christian (18'), Peter Byers (38', 51', 57'), Justin Cochrane (47'), George Dublin (54'), Randolph Burton (68', 74')
  • U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Jaime Browne (49')
Game 4-Haiti def. Curacao 4-2 in Willemstad, Curacao on September 6, 2011
  • Haiti Goals-Kevin Lafrance (37'), James Marcelin (58'), Donald Guerrier (61')
  • Curacao Goals-Orin De Waard (12'), Angelo Zimmerman (43', OG 75')
A little perspective here. In 4 games, these teams scored 28 goals. In 2010 qualifying, there were 24 different groups across all continents and rounds that featured 4-team groups playing double round-robins. In the entire duration of the group, 10 of those groups scored 28 or fewer goals.

So. Group 6 of CONCACAF Qualifying. Offensive juggernaut, or just a few really bad teams? Obviously the answer has to lie somewhere in the middle (or in my humble opinion towards the latter). I'm forgoing individual game recaps because what's the point? I can't tell you anything that the 4 blowouts (Haiti/Curacao wasn't very close) and 7 goals per game average doesn't. Haiti And Antigua/Barbuda = good-ish, and Curacao and U.S. Virgin Islands are just really bad. Like, really, really bad...

Thoughts

Antigua/Barbuda-Very positive sign that they're averaging 6.5 goals for a game, despite weaker competition. More telling perhaps is the 1.5 goals allowed per game against the same weak competition. This group is going to come down to the Antigua/Haiti series. Goal-scoring helps, even against a strong team like Haiti but Antigua needs to be mindful that Haiti is just as much of a threat offensively as they are. In a group so far dictated by offence, defence is going to be the likely factor in determining who advances. Advantage so far in that category: Haiti.

Haiti-Was a little concerned about them coming in but they appear in fine shape. Scoreline of the Curacao game looks closer then it was, Haiti recovered nicely from a bit of a stumble out of the gate. Like Antigua, Haiti has 2 more games in October to prepare for their meeting in November. Important not to let down but also for Haiti to score a few more goals. Should they split the series in November goal differential is the first tiebreak, currently held by Antigua/Barbuda by 2 goals.

Curacao/U.S. Virgin Islands-Well...At least they're trying...In seriousness though, neither team really stood a shot in this group and are getting blown out as a result. It's cases like this where I miss the old CONCACAF qualifying format. Round 2 used to be a 2 game home-and-home series which gave less room for error but spared some serious embarassment for teams like U.S. Virgin Islands. I'm a proponent of weak teams playing strong ones to gain experience but there's a limit to that. U.S. Virgin Islands is on pace for 6 losses and 42 goals against this round. Not fun.

Going Forward

If either Haiti or Antigua lose a game in October, some thing is seriously wrong. Wrong as in asteroids are targeting the Earth and life as we know it is about to perish. Hit the snooze button on this group until November.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

Actual:

Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

I feel guilty taking credit for this. Seems too much like taking candy from a baby. Not that I know what that feels like...

September Review: North America-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Belize def. Grenada 3-0 in St. George's, Grenada on September 2, 2011
  • Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (11'), Harrison Roches (35'), Elroy Smith (79')
Sufficed to say, any lingering questions about what form top-seed Grenada are in were answered in this game. Grenada was a wreck in this match and were thoroughly dominated by the lowest-seeded team. Belize on the other hand is in top form and proved they have a shot at winning this group.

Game 2-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 4-0 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on September 2, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Marco Pappa (15'), Yony Flores (31'), Mario Rodriguez (53'), Fredy Garcia (71')
St. Vincent was just no match for the favourites from Guatemala who were on the attack relentlessly throughout the game. Guatemala cemented themselves as the best team in the group with this big win and Grenada's collapse against Belize.

Game 3-Guatemala def. Belize 2-1 in Belmopan, Belize on September 6, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Gustavo Cabrera (4'), Minor Lopez (75')
  • Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (77')
A late goal by McCaulay was not enough for Belize as they fell 2-1 to Guatemala at home. No shame in this result for Belize as Guatemala was a much higher-rated opponent and Belize controlled the play of this game for the majority. A win in the return game will be crucial but Belize has quickly risen from Round 1 participant to having a great shot at winning this group.

Game 4-St. Vincent/Grenadines def. Grenada 2-1 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on September 18, 2011
  • St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (27'), Cornelius Stewart (71')
  • Grenada Goals-Cassim Langaigne (76')
Barring a miracle, Grenada has pretty much exited the competition with this result. The top seed in the group, Grenada lost to a very weak St. Vincent team who was blown out by Guatemala just 2 weeks prior to this game. Now 6 points back of Guatemala in the group, Grenada needs to find itself immediately and start winning games if they want to avoid an early exit.

Thoughts

Belize-Very impressive. My primary complaint about CONCACAF is that the talent pool isn't deep enough to support a long qualifying campaign. Belize is in the process of proving me wrong. This team has been competing with teams considerably better than them and shooting up the rankings in the process. A win against Guatemala on the road is a must if they want to advance, but if they can keep up their play from qualifying so far, it is not as arduous a task as it might have appeared a few months ago.

Grenada-



[ed.]-I reuse videos some times when I deem it appropriate. In this case, it would be inappropriate for me NOT to post this...

Guatemala-With Grenada still wondering when qualifying begins, Guatemala has a slight lead on the rest of the group with a pair of victories in September. Guatemala can't become complacent though. A rematch against neighbour Belize still looms and they have a Grenada team to face in November who might at some point before then regain their teeth and provide a stiff test. It's a simple adage but one Guatemala needs to remain focused on: just win.

St. Vincent/Grenadines-Not really sure what to make of this team based on September results although I think the blowout loss to Guatemala means more. Grenada is a mess right now and wouldn't put up much of a fight against anyone. Guatemala on the other hand has been beating solid teams all year and dismantled St. Vincent. Don't shut the door on this team yet but they appear to be way out of their depth in this group.

Going Forward

Four more games to be played in October. Grenada and St. Vincent will again not play on the same matchday as everyone else. On the 7th, Guatemala travels to St. Vincent in what will likely be a 3rd straight win for Guatemala. Grenada will also travel to Belize in a must-win game for both teams (Grenada to avoid probable elimination and Belize to keep pace with Guatemala).

On October 11th, Belize and Guatemala have their rematch in Guatemala City. Winner of that game could very well put themselves in the driver's seat to win the group heading in to November. And on the 15th, Grenada hosts St. Vincent and will look to avenge a terrible loss on the road in September.

No teams are eligible for elimination on the 7th. Certainly there will be some facing it on the 11th/15th though.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts

Actual:

Guatemala-6 pts
Belize-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-3 pts
Grenada-0 pts

Not my best effort. Still can't get over how pitiful Grenada has been. Rewarded with a top seed and can't accomplish anything on the field.

Monday, September 19, 2011

September Review: North America-Group 4

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Canada def. Saint Lucia 4-1 in Toronto, Canada on September 2, 2011
  • Canada Goals-Josh Simpson (6',61'), Dwayne De Rosario (50'), Will Johnson (90+1')
  • Saint Lucia Goals-Tremain Paul (7')
Nothing unexpected in this result. Being Canadian, this is one of the few games I get to watch with a decent feed rather then scrambling to find something online so I can provide some rudimentary analysis here. In a nutshell, nice job by Canada of breaking down the opposing defence but need to find a way to notch more goals, a long-standing problem they've possessed. For Saint Lucia, they faced a clear dearth of talent but were very undisciplined on defence, often losing track of where the Canadian wingers were on the field leading to a number of fast breaks on goal for Canada. Lack of talent can be mediated by intelligent on-field play. Saint Lucia was unable to do that in this game, looking overwhelmed as soon as they hit the field.

Game 2-Puerto Rico tied Saint Kitts and Nevis 0-0 in Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis on September 2, 2011

Saint Kitts needed a win this game to keep pace with Canada. Unfortunately, results don't come to those who aren't willing to work for it. Neither side looked comfortable in this game and not a single goal could be managed by either side despite serious deficiencies on the defensive sides of the ball. In a group where both teams need a ton of wins, this is the worst result imaginable.

Game 3-Saint Kitts and Nevis def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia on September 6, 2011
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (7'), Jevon Francis (12'), Orlando Mitchum (15'), Devaughn Elliott (44')
  • Saint Lucia Goals-Zaine Pierre (65'), Cliff Valcin (84')
4 first-half goals by Saint Kitts put this one in the bag at half. Credit to Saint Lucia though for not folding when it would have been very easy to do so. Instead they were able to recover and record a 2-0 second-half scoreline. 2 things to take away from this result. Firstly, Saint Kitts is a dangerous team in this group. Puerto Rico result notwithstanding, they showed incessant pressure in the first half and were rewarded with a flurry of goals, scoring the same amount as Canada did on Saint Lucia in their game. And secondly, Saint Lucia has some fight in it. Not going to advance from the group but they have the potential to maybe grab a surprise win somewhere down the road.

Game 4-Canada def. Puerto Rico 3-0 in Bayamon, Puerto Rico on September 6, 2011
  • Canada Goals-Iain Hume (42'), Simeon Jackson (84'), Tosaint Ricketts (90+3')
Another solid win for Canada although they had to fight for this one. Struggling with oppressive heat and a poor playing surface, they kept their composure and finished the game with a 3-0 victory even though the braces came very late in the game. Of most concern for Canada will be their breakdowns on defence which allowed Puerto Rico some probing runs in to the Canadian penalty area. If Canada had been playing a team with some actual scoring touch, this result could have been far different.

Thoughts

Canada-A couple kinks they need to iron out but this is the time to do it. With repeat matches against Saint Lucia and Puerto Rico coming up, Canada should be able to grab another pair of wins without having to over-exert itself. Defensive zone responsibility and (as always) finishing ability will be the areas of improvement for the Canadian side in those games.

Puerto Rico-Had some high hopes coming in to this group but a loss and a draw early on have them on the brink of elimination already. Puerto Rico will be exceptionally disappointed with their lack of offensive burst so far in qualfiying. With zero goals scored in 2 qualifying matches, they are one of two teams in CONCACAF qualifying with no goals for in 180 minutes.

Saint Kitts and Nevis-I'm curious to see how they'll match up with Canada. If it's the team that drew with Puerto Rico, they'll get blow out. If it's the team that went 4-0 in a half against Saint Lucia then it will be interesting. Without question though, they need 2 wins in October. Being within 3 points of Canada before they meet is a must for this team if they want to advance and 2 wins is likely the only way they'll achieve that mark.

Saint Lucia-I really like the heart and determination they've shown in their 2 games. Obviously, they're outmatched in this group but the difference between this team and others in that situation is the effort they display. Many teams would simply fold and run out the clock in games but not Saint Lucia. They appear to be treating these games as learning experiences which is would they need to do. Playing stronger teams will make you better if you're willing to acknowledge that fact and play 100%. Saint Lucia is doing that.

Going Forward

On October 7th, Canada is traveling to Saint Lucia while Puerto Rico hosts Saint Kitts and Nevis. On October 11th, Puerto Rico travels to Canada while Saint Kitts will host Saint Lucia. Important game of note is the PR-Saint Kitts game on the 7th. Saint Lucia is likely looking at a pair of losses and Canada should handle Puerto Rico at home. For Saint Kitts, that game on the 7th is of the utmost importance. Win and they stay within a game of Canada. Lose, and it's a probably 5-point deficit with just 3 games to play. Not good.

Both Saint Lucia and Puerto Rico can be mathematically eliminated on the 7th. Saint Lucia will be eliminated with a LOSS to Canada while Puerto Rico would be eliminated with a LOSS and a Canada WIN.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts

Actual:

Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts