Round 1 is over and we now have the exact groups for Round 2, begininng next June. Groups are as follows:
Group 1
Probably a 2-horse race with Botswana and South Africa.
Group 2
Cape Verde was a surprise team in 2010 qualifying but Tunisia is the clear favourite to advance from Group 2.
Group 3
I still maintain that it's a crime Morocco and Ivory Coast had to meet this early on in the competition. Only one will advance and it will likely be Ivory Coast, but Morocco will give them all they can handle on the journey.
Group 4
Ghana the huge favourite.
Group 5
Going to be one of the more interesting groups. Burkina Faso the top seed but any one of the other teams could knock them off on any given day. Keep an eye on Gabon in particular who could spring a surprise like last campaign.
Group 6
A very tame handful of teams to go up against Nigeria. They should have little trouble advancing.
Group 7
Similar to Group 5 in that it doesn't take a huge leap to envision the top seed Egypt losing some games. Difference is though that I can't see any other team being able to make a big run in this group. More likely the bottom 3 teams trade results with each other and allow Egypt to escape with enough points.
Group 8
Algeria was a surprise qualifier for 2010 and questions remain about how good they actually are. If they can maintain the form they should last time, this group should be a breeze, If not, it's completely open.
Group 9
Cameroon still the favourite but this is probably the most high-profile group in this round. 3 teams have previously been to the World Cup Finals and the 4th (Libya) is currently having its best run of success in the past couple decades.
Group 10
The most wide open group of qualifying. Senegal is not deserving of a top seed and any team in the group could go on a run and advance from this stage.
ASIA
One Matchday remains in Round 3 and it will come in February 2012. 4 spots in Round 4 are still to be decided. One each from groups 4 and 5 and both spots in group 2, which features South Korea, attempting to qualify for a 8th-straight time.
Group 1
China unceremoniously exited the competition yesterday securing that Iraq and Jordan will advance to Round 4. Iraq plays Singapore while Jordan meets China on the final day and Iraq could have a chance to win the group should Jordan falter against China.
Group 2
A South Korea loss to Lebanon along with a Kuwait comeback against U.A.E. have put this group in to chaos. With just 2 games remaining, no one is safe amongst the top 3, which includes a long-time World Cup Finals contender and the worst ranked team in this round. Kuwait has to travel to South Korea while Lebanon visits U.A.E. Scenarios are as follows:
Kuwait will advance with a WIN.
Lebanon will advance with a WIN/DRAW, or a Kuwait DRAW/LOSS.
South Korea will advance with a WIN/DRAW, or a Lebanon LOSS.
There's also some goal differential scenarios involving Korea and Lebanon but given the existing difference, I doubt they'll both lose and have that be a factor. Kuwait appears to be the odd man out here. They must beat South Korea on the road in order to advance. Should they do that, it will be a wild game later in the day for Lebanon, who would have to secure a draw to advance, eliminating South Korea in the process.
Group 3
Japan and Uzbekistan jumped out front early and were never going to relinquish control. Both had clinched advancement with 2 games to spare.
Group 4
More chaos. Saudi Arabia had a chance to clinch yesterday if they could beat Oman at home. But they didn't and all of a sudden find themselves in a very bad position despite currently sitting 2nd. Saudi Arabia travels to Australia in February while Oman hosts Thailand. Saudi Arabia was thoroughly beaten by Australia last encounter. And while Australia is already through, I can guarantee they'll put out their best roster in February. They don't want to see Saudi Arabia in the next round and they'll be looking to end their road here. Even if Saudi Arabia draws, that lets b0th of the other teams have a chance to advance. Here are the scenarios:
Oman will advance with a WIN combined with a Saudi Arabia DRAW/LOSS, or a DRAW combined with a Saudi Arabia LOSS provided the goal differential favours Oman (Not likely).
Saudi Arabia will advance with a WIN, or a DRAW combined with either an Oman DRAW or an Oman LOSS provided Saudi Arabia has a better goal differential than Thailand, or a LOSS combined with an Oman DRAW.
Thailand will advance with a WIN combined with either a Saudi Arabia LOSS or a Saudi Arabia DRAW provided Thailand has a better goal differential.
I personally don't know what to predict here, because the bottom of this group has been so inconsistent. Because the Saudi game is being played in Australia, we should know the result before the Oman game even starts which will clear things up a bit. If Saudi Arabia wins, they're through. If they draw or lose, then it will probably take an Oman win or a Thailand win (by 3 goals if Saudi Arabia draws) to knock them off. Should Saudi Arabia lose, Oman would be even on points with a draw but they'd also need Saudi Arabia to have lostby 6 which isn't likely. It sounds confusing right now, and it is, but it will be a lot clearer on game day.
Group 5
Iran was again unimpressive on the road against Bahrain but has done enough to advance. Other spot will go to either Qatar or Bahrain. Qatar travels to Iran in February while Bahrain hosts Indonesia. In order for Bahrain to advance, they must beat Indonesia and Qatar must lose to Iran. But even that isn't enough. The combined goal differential in the 2 games must be at least 10 for Bahrain to win the tiebreak outright against Qatar, or 9 goals provided Bahrain has more goals for than Qatar. In short, Bahrain is not mathematically eliminated, but they need a miracle in order to pass Qatar at this point.
NORTH AMERICA
Round 2
These are the final Round 2 standings now that all games have been completed.
Group 1
Easy go of things for El Salvador who finish with a perfect record.
Group 2
Ended up being a lot closer than it ever seemed to be with Bermuda grabbing a pair of wins late against Barbados. Would have liked to have seen the schedule altered so that Bermuda's schedule wasn't so front-loaded. Might have made the race a bit more interesting down the stretch.
Group 3
You can now turn off your snooze button. Panama breezed easily as expected.
Group 4
Canada faltered a bit down the stretch but was never in danger of losing the group.
Group 5
Great job by Guatemala but this is what I was referring to above in Africa Group 7. Guatemala did great, but even a mediocre performance would be enough when everyone else is beating each other. Guatemala finished as the only team in the group above .500 as well as the only team with a positive goal differential.
Group 6
The biggest surprise of the round, Antigua/Barbuda have come seemingly out of nowhere, to finish with 26 goals in 6 games, and knocking off group favourite Haiti on the second last day. I'm curious to see how they do against the likes of the U.S. and Jamaica next round. Could be in over their head or will give opposing defences nightmares.
Round 3
Standings with a bit of analysis were posted here but I'll show the groups again.
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
SOUTH AMERICA
No surprise who the top 2 are although Argentina has been less than spectacular in getting there. No real surprises from Ecuador through the bottom given the schedules of the teams listed. Venezuela is the big stunner though, with 7 points in 4 games. They'll have a rough stretch coming up though with Uruguay, Chile and Paraguay all in their next 4 games. If they're in a similar spot after that gauntlet, we can talk about them as possible qualifiers.
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