September Review: Asia-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-South Korea def. Lebanon 6-0 in Goyang, South Korea on September 2, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (8',45+1',67'), Ji Dong-Won (66',85'), Kim Jung-Woo (82')

Exactly as thorough of a beating you'd expect from a game featuring a top 3 team in Asia and the lowest ranked Round 3 participant. As exhibited by the final scoreline, Lebanon never put up a fight in this game and a flurry of 2nd half goals for South Korea only padded their stats going forward. As we'll see in a second though, results can be meaningless for predicting future matches.

Game 2-Kuwait def. United Arab Emirates 3-2 in Al Ain, U.A.E. on September 2, 2011

• Kuwait Goals-Yousef Nasser (7',65'), Bader Al-Mutwa (51')
• U.A.E. Goals-Ismail Al Hammadi (84'), Ahmad Khalil (89')

A pair of late goals by U.A.E. made this game appear closer then it was. In actuality, Kuwait had this in the bag around halftime. Having thoroughly dominated possession and chances in the first half, Kuwait put the game out of reach with a pair of goals in the 51st and 65th minutes to seal the victory. U.A.E. found their game in the last 10 minutes but it was too little too late at that point.

Game 3-Lebanon def. United Arab Emirates 3-1 in Beirut, Lebanon on September 6, 2011

• Lebanon Goals-Mohammed Ghaddar (37'), Akram Moghrabi (53'), Roda Antar (83')
• U.A.E. Goals-Mahmoud Khamees (15')

Say what? Dude, someone has to be fired for this one. Oh good, U.A.E.'s way ahead of me. Embarrassing is the only word that can come to mind for U.A.E. losing to unequivocably the worst team remaining in Asian qualifying. A team that not even 2 months ago, U.A.E. blew out of the water to the tune of a 6-2 victory. Embarrassing. U.A.E. is now 4 points back of second place with 2 games to play against South Korea. Vultures are starting to circle over the country...Now to take time to congratulate Lebanon. I've been back-handedly insulting you prett much this whole post but there's no arguing with results. I still think you have no shot at getting out of this group but here's hoping you prove me wrong.

Game 4-South Korea tied Kuwait 1-1 in Kuwait City, Kuwait on September 6, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (8')
• Kuwait Goals-Hussain Fadel (53')

I'd love to claim omniscience having cautioned in my preview against a South Korean letdown this game but I also predicted they'd win so I can't exactly do that. An early Korean goal made it look like they were going to run away with another game but that was not the case. It was surprisingly a very even game with Kuwait often finding itself the aggressor. Kuwait's strategy of peppering the Korean goals with shots whenever they could paid off in the 53rd minute with an equalizer that turned out to be the final tally of the match. Both sides would have liked a win this game but a draw combined with a U.A.E loss works just as well for both teams.

Thoughts

Kuwait-Could not have asked for a better start to this group. Defeated U.A.E on the road and managed a surprising draw against South Korea. Moreover, they are 4 points clear of U.A.E. in second place and are now afforded some breathing room in the group with Lebanon to play twice still.

Lebanon-Goes without saying but you can't advance without winning games. Lebanon has given themselves a glimmer of hope in qualifying with the victory over U.A.E. I'm still skeptical of how far they can actually go though. U.A.E. may have been a fluke, especially from a team that was demolished 6-0 4 days earlier.

South Korea-Still the best team in this group, despite the draw in Kuwait. Can't see anyone in the group knocking them off in Korea, and I imagine the return trip to Lebanon will be just as big a beating as the first game was. Would take a colossal surprise for Korea to not advance from this group.

U.A.E.-



Too dramatic? Or not dramatic enough?

Going Forward

October games have Kuwait visiting Lebanon and U.A.E. making the long trip to South Korea. Barring any upsets Kuwait and South Korea should be victorious. Lebanon needs this victory but as the projected 4th-place finisher in the group you can't expect a lot from them. U.A.E. is in must-win territory now and having to do that on the road against Korea is a Herculean task. I'm hoping they can to keep things interesting but don't be surprised if Kuwait and Korea find themselves on 7 points following October.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

South Korea-6 pts
U.A.E.-4 pts
Kuwait-1 pts
Lebanon-0 pts

Actual:

South Korea-4 pts
Kuwait-4 pts
Lebanon-3 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

Well...One of the teams is in the right position. That counts for something right? Right?...