November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 2

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Barbados-148th (Up 2), 23rd N. America (Down 1)
Bermuda-132nd (Up 57), 19th N. America (Up 12)
Guyana-97th (Up 19), 11th N. America (Up 4)
Trinidad and Tobago-79th (Up 1), 7th N. America (Even)

Yes, the numbers are accurate for Bermuda and Guyana. Shows how ineffective the ranking system is, especially in the lower half of the standings. A win and a draw this past month were enough to shoot Bermuda past roughly 30% of teams in the entire world.

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados 0-2 Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Barbados
• Bermuda 1-2 Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Bermuda
• Guyana 2-0 Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados 0-4 Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana 1-1 Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 14, 2011

• Bermuda at Barbados

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago

November Games:

Game 9
Barbados at Bermuda
November 11, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Game 10
Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Location: Providence Stadium, Providence, Guyana

Game 11
Bermuda at Barbados
November 14, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda*

Game 12
Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
November 15, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

*-Barbados and Bermuda will play both games in Hamilton, Bermuda, even though Barbados is supposed to be playing Game 11 at home. Haven't found an official release as to why that is although with both teams eliminated already, it might just be logistically easier for both teams to play in the same location twice rather then have to arrange extra travel for no reason. I believe this is the case as Puerto Rico-Saint Lucia are doing the same thing in Group 4. If I find anything to the contrary, I will clarify this.

With Barbados and Bermuda eliminated, this group rests solely on the results of Guyana and Trinidad. If Guyana wins either game, they will advance to Round 3. And if Trinidad doesn't get 4 points out of the games, Guyana will also advance. Even though Guyana only needs a win or 2 draws to advance, that task will be easier said then done. In 13 career matches between these teams, Guyana has NEVER beaten Trinidad. They have drawn 3 times, with 2 of those draws coming within the past 3 years. If ever there was an opportune time to pick up their first win against Trinidad, now is it for Guyana.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Trinidad and Tobago-13 pts
x-Guyana-11 pts
x-Bermuda-10 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Guyana has impressed in their first 4 games but Trinidad will be their toughest opponent so far and they have never lost to Guyana. Trinidad needs 4 points and I think they'll get it, but just by the skin of their teeth. Combined scoreline in the last 3 games between these two has been 4-3 in favour of Trinidad. It's going to be low-scoring and it's going to be some even matches.

November 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 2

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Kuwait-96th (Up 3), 10th Asia (Down 1)
Lebanon-146th (Even), 25th Asia (Up 1)
South Korea-31st (Down 2), 3rd Asia (Even)
U.A.E.-113th (Down 1), 15th Asia (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Lebanon 0-6 South Korea
• Kuwait 3-2 U.A.E.

September 6, 2011

• U.A.E. 1-3 Lebanon
• South Korea 1-1 Kuwait

October 11, 2011

• U.A.E. 1-2 South Korea
  
• Kuwait 2-2 Lebanon

November 11, 2011

• Lebanon at Kuwait
• South Korea at U.A.E.

November 15, 2011

• U.A.E. at Kuwait
• South Korea at Lebanon

February 29, 2012

• Kuwait at South Korea
• Lebanon at U.A.E.

November Games:

Game 7
South Korea at U.A.E.
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:45 am EST
Location: Al-Rashid Stadium, Dubai, U.A.E.

Game 8
Lebanon at Kuwait
November 11, 2011
Time: 9:30 am EST
Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Kuwait City, Kuwait

Game 9
South Korea at Lebanon
November 15, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EST
Location: Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Beirut, Lebanon

Game 10
U.A.E. at Kuwait
November 15, 2011
Time: 9:30 am EST
Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Kuwait City, Kuwait

Make or break month for Lebanon and U.A.E. who both have 2 games against the teams on track to advance (Kuwait and South Korea). U.A.E. appears to have rebounded under new coach Abdullah Masfar but is still well out of position to advance. They need 2 wins this month, end of story. Lebanon has played far beyond their anticipated capabilities so far and will need to again this month. Can afford losing to South Korea (a likely outcome) on the 15th provided they can defeat Kuwait on the 11th.

Post-November Standing Predictions:

a-South Korea-13 pts
a-Kuwait-9 pts
x-Lebanon-4 pts
x-U.A.E.-1 pts

I don't think U.A.E. can possibly win 2 games against their opposition although I'll give them some credit and give them a draw with Kuwait. I also think this is the month Lebanon comes crashing back to Earth, losing both games and eliminating themselves. South Korea and Kuwait to clinch advancement on the 15th.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Guyana def. Barbados 2-0 in Bridgetown, Barbados on October 7, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Anthony Abrams (73'), Chris Nurse (87')

A pair of late goals saved Guyana in their first road game of qualifying as they picked up their 3rd win in as many games. Guyana struggled to get things going on the road but kept plugging in the offensive zone and had the game in hand once they scored their first. For Barbados, this was their 3rd consecutive goalless outing in qualifying.

Game 6-Bermuda def. Trinidad/Tobago 2-1 in Hamilton, Bermuda on October 7, 2011

• Bermuda Goals-Antwan Russell (52'), Nahki Wells (63')
• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Kevin Molino (82')

Just like in last qualifying campaign, Bermuda has made itself a thorn in the side of a superior Trinidad team, picking up an upset at home and severely hindering Trinidad's odds of advancing. The game appeared over with 10 minutes remaining but Trinidad was able to cut the deficit in half and created havoc around the Bermuda goal for the remainder of the game but was unable to pick up a draw.

Game 7-Trinidad/Tobago def. Barbados 4-0 in Port of Spain, Trinidad/Tobago on October 11, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Lester Peltier (6', 55', 63'), Hughton Hector (90')

Lester Peltier led the way with a hat trick as Trinidad coasted to a win at home against Barbados. Trinidad's 4 goals matched their offensive output from their first 3 games and should give them a confidence boost after a devastating loss to Bermuda.

Game 8-Bermuda tied Guyana 1-1 in Hamilton, Bermuda on October 11, 2011

• Bermuda Goals-John Barry Nusum (71'), Ricky Shakes (81')

Bermuda continued their reign of terror against the top of this group, drawing with Guyana in a game they were minutes away from winning. Unfortunately for Bermuda, Ricky Shakes scored for Guyana late in the second half, giving Guyana a single point and eliminating Bermuda in the process. Had Bermuda won, they could have conceivably come back to win this group, but will instead be watching Round 3 from home.

Thoughts

Barbados-Eliminated and have zero goals to their credit in qualifying. Wasn't expected to challenge in this group and haven't managed to be a threat in any of their games so far. Has a pair of games remaining against Bermuda which gives them a chance to get some points from qualifying but Bermuda might be too tough a challenge for this team at this point.

Bermuda-Predicted they would have some success this month playing both games at home and sure enough, that was the case. Drawing Guyana hurts as it eliminated them but they can still emerge with a .500 record or better pending their November results against Barbados.

Guyana-Haven't lost a game in 4 qualifying matches yet but that has been against a pair of weaker teams and they haven't always looked impressive in knocking off those teams. They'll have a shot to advance to Round 3 and eliminated 2010 Round 4 participant Trinidad next month. A win in one of their 2 matches will be enough to achieve that milestone.

Trinidad/Tobago-It's yet to be seen what effect the Bermuda loss will have on their chances of advancement but it isn't helpful to say the least. Fortunately for them, Bermuda also prevented Guyana from taking full points in October so there is a shot for this team to make up the gap in points. Should be very evenly matched with Guyana in their upcoming series.

Going Forward

Bermuda and Barbados will meet for a pair of games with no effect on group advancement. Bermuda has a chance to actually climb to second place in the group while Barbados will need to win both games just to avoid finishing last in the group. Guyana and Trinidad will meet as well for a pair of games which will decide the group winner. Magic number to look for in those two games is 4. That is the number of points Trinidad needs to grab from the two games in order to advance to Round 3.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Trinidad and Tobago-10 pts
Guyana-10 pts
x-Bermuda-2 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Actual:

Guyana-10 pts
Trinidad and Tobago-9 pts
x-Bermuda-4 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Bermuda wreaked even more chaos on the group then I suspected, defeating Trinidad outright before tying Guyana.

October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-South Korea def. United Arab Emirates 2-1 in Suwon, South Korea on October 11, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (55')
• U.A.E. Goals-Hamdan Al Kamali (OG 64'), Ismail Matar (90+2')

A marked difference in play from U.A.E. was unsurprisingly not enough to overcome South Korea on the road, but U.A.E can take solace in the drastically improved performance they showed under new coach Abdullah Masfar. U.A.E. looked lost in their first few qualifying matches but against South Korea they were defending well, challenging for possession and creating scoring chances against a superior opponent. The own goal ensured South Korea of the victory but had it not happened, things could have been very different in this game.

Game 6-Kuwait tied Lebanon 2-2 in Beirut, Lebanon on October 11, 2011

• Kuwait Goals-Musaed Neda (51')
• Lebanon Goals-Hassan Maatouk (15',86'), Mahmoud Younes (OG 89')

Not the most technically impressive match in qualifying but certainly one of the more entertaining ones. A heavy underdog going in, Lebanon scored quickly at home and held a lead in to halftime before Musaed Neda of Kuwait slotted home an equalizer. The game went back and forth until late in the second half when Hassan Maatouk scored on a penalty kick which appeared to be the winner for Lebanon, securing a stunning victory. But a defensive zone lapse just minutes later led to a Lebanese own goal, silencing the crowd and ending the game in a draw.

Thoughts

Kuwait-Just barely escaped from Beirut with a draw and they have reason to be concerned going forward in qualifying. You're always looking for your team to be improving throughout qualifying. After defeating U.A.E. and tying South Korea, barely tying Lebanon is a huge step backwards for this team. Moreover, the 2 teams beneath Kuwait in the standings have both made significant improvements over a short period of time. Holding on to a tenuous lead against a pair of surging teams is a tough chore, made more difficult when Kuwait is not playing near its best.

Lebanon-Against all odds, Lebanon is hanging around in this group but they still have a long way to go if they wish to advance. That advancement is even a consideration for this team halfway through group play is a feat for a team ranked lowest of all Round 3 teams in Asian qualifying. With a game remaining against South Korea, Lebanon probably needs wins against Kuwait and U.A.E. in their remaining games, an unenviable task but one slightly more possible then it would have appeared a couple months ago.

South Korea-No reason for concern right now as even on an off-day they are better then any team in this group. But the last couple games have been less then impressive for the Koreans and their play in this round might not cut it when they get to Round 4. It's possible that South Korea was merely struggling with an improved U.A.E. side but off the heels of a tie with Kuwait, this is hardly the world-beating team people expected of South Korea coming in to this round.

U.A.E.-Good news is they looked better by leaps and bounds against South Korea over any other performance so far this year. Bad news is that with 3 games to go, U.A.E. still has no points and is at least 6 points shy of the threshold they'll need to reach in order to advance. U.A.E.'s improved performance turned some heads this month, but it doesn't look as if they have the games left to make up the deficit they've placed themselves in.

Going Forward

November 11th is going to feature a pair of rematches from October as South Korea visits U.A.E. and Lebanon travels to Kuwait. Both games carry intrigue as U.A.E. needs an upset win if they want a shot at advancing while the winner of Lebanon-Kuwait will find themselves in solidly in 2nd (or 1st) place. On November 15th, South Korea will visit Lebanon while U.A.E. travels to Kuwait. What is at stake that day will depend entirely on the results of the 11th.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

South Korea-7 pts
Kuwait-7 pts
Lebanon-3 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

Actual:

South Korea-7 pts
Kuwait-5 pts
Lebanon-4 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

October 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 2

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Kuwait-99th (Down 4), 9th Asia (Up 1)
Lebanon-146th (Up 13), 26th Asia (Up 3)
South Korea-29th (Down 1), 3rd Asia (Even)
U.A.E.-112th (Down 3), 15th Asia (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Lebanon 0-6 South Korea
• Kuwait 3-2 U.A.E.

September 6, 2011

• U.A.E. 1-3 Lebanon
• South Korea 1-1 Kuwait

October 11, 2011

• U.A.E. at South Korea
  
• Kuwait at Lebanon

November 11, 2011

• Lebanon at Kuwait
• South Korea at U.A.E.

November 15, 2011

• U.A.E. at Kuwait
• South Korea at Lebanon

February 29, 2012

• Kuwait at South Korea
• Lebanon at U.A.E.

October Games:

Game 5
U.A.E. at South Korea
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EDT
Location: Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon, South Korea

Game 6
Kuwait at Lebanon
October 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Beirut, Lebanon

South Korea and Kuwait enter the lone October games for this group as favourites and with a sizeable group lead at stake. Victories for these two would give them a 4 point cushion in front of 3rd place and a chance to clinch advancement in their next matches, which happen to be the return legs against these same opponents. While Lebanon and U.A.E. cannot be mathematically eliminated in October, they will find themselves in a near-insurmountable deficit if they cannot pick up points from these games.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

South Korea-7 pts
Kuwait-7 pts
Lebanon-3 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

I'd like South Korea's chances against U.A.E. even if they were at their best which a 3-1 loss to Lebanon clearly shows they aren't. Despite Lebanon's victory they will still be the underdog against Kuwait but that game does have the potential to be closer then the game in Suwon. I think both South Korea and Kuwait win and start to pull away in the group but won't count out Lebanon just yet.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 2

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Barbados-150th (Down 5), 22nd N. America (Down 1).
Bermuda-189th (Down 4), 31st N. America (No Change).
Guyana-116th (Down 2), 15th N. America (Down 2).
Trinidad and Tobago-80th (Up 8), 7th N. America (Up 1).

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados 0-2 Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Barbados
• Bermuda 1-2 Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
• Guyana at Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana at Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
• Bermuda at Barbados

October Games:

Game 5
Guyana at Barbados
October 7, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados

Game 6
Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
October 7, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Game 7
Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
October 11, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Game 8
Guyana at Bermuda
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Reverse legs of September which saw Guyana and Trinidad pick up an expected pair of victories. 6 more points apiece should be the expectation again in October however there will be obstacles to face. Trinidad opens October against Bermuda, a team that has been a thorn in their sides the past few years and nearly eliminated them in 2010 qualifying. And Guyana must play 2 consecutive road legs after playing both September matches at home. Barbados and Bermuda are both in all likelihood eliminated at this point but both have the potential to be spoilers for the two front-runners in the group.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Trinidad and Tobago-10 pts
Guyana-10 pts
x-Bermuda-2 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Going out on a limb here and I think Bermuda had the capability to cause some potential upsets playing 2 home legs in succession.

September Review: North America-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Trinidad/Tobago def. Bermuda 1-0 in Port of Spain, Trinidad/Tobago on September 2, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago-Kenwyne Jones (45')

Really shaky opening performance from the 2006 Finals participant. A lack of finishing touch and some very shaky goalkeeping are just some of the problems facing Trinidad after this game. Those problems won't cripple them against teams like Bermuda, but when they face Guyana in November or if they advance to the next round, they won't be able to get by on performances like this one.

Game 2-Guyana def. Barbados 2-0 in Georgetown, Guyana on September 2, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Shawn Beveney (26'), Charles Pollard (73')

Strong opener from Guyana who held a noticeable advantage in speed and fitness in this match. Guyana was able to control the ball for most of the game and wore down the Barbados defence on their way to a 2-goal victory. With a number of other quality scoring chances including a disallowed goal for a questionable offsides call, Guyana could not have asked for a better start to qualifying. Key for Guyana has to be managing to repeat this performance consistently, especially when it comes time to face Trinidad.

Game 3-Trinidad/Tobago def. Barbados 2-0 in Bridgetown, Barbados on September 6, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Keon Daniel (17'), Darryl Roberts (67')

Better showing by Trinidad who like Guyana were able to exploit a sluggish Barbados team and wear them down on the way to an easy victory. Positive sign for Trinidad is that they were getting goals from people other then English Premier League striker Kenwyne Jones, a necessity if they wish to advance through qualifying.

Game 4-Guyana def. Bermuda 2-1 in Georgetown, Guyana on September 6, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Vurlon Mills (50',60')
• Bermuda Goals-Khano Smith (90')

Another day and another comfortable victory for Guyana who again were able to control possession and create opportunities offensively with their speed. Guyana missed some opportunities which would have put the game away and will not be pleased that they allowed Bermuda an opportunity to tie so late in the game but they have played remarkably well in two performances so far.

Thoughts

Barbados/Bermuda-I'm pairing these teams together because I'm just going to end up saying the same thing for both. In a nutshell, they're done. Down 6 points with 4 games to play, they really need a miracle to advance from this group and I haven't seen anything from either that leads me to believe they're capable of doing that. Maybe there's a slight glimmer of hope for Bermuda since they get 2 home games in October but I doubt it.

Guyana-Much better team than I was expecting coming in and I see no reason why they can't top Trinidad and advance to Round 3. Strong team offensively with a lot of speed and if they can refine their offence slightly and eliminate the number of offsides calls they take, they'll give opposing defences fits. Haven't seen a lot from their defence which could be a little suspect. We won't know that until November when they play Trinidad though.

Trinidad/Tobago-They improved from Game 1 to Game 2, now they need to make sure they continue to do so. Based on what they displayed in September, I don't think they can be the favourite to advance in this group. That can certainly change though depending on what steps they take to improve as a team, particularly in the offensive end. Too many scoring chances wasted against lower-calibre teams which will kill you as you move forward. Look for game 2 starting goalkeeper Marvin Phillip to get the nod through qualifying over game 1 starter Anthony Warner. Warner was very shaky in net, unable to confidently handle simple passes back from his defenders.

Going Forward

On October 7th, Bermuda will host Trinidad while Barbados hosts Guyana. On the 11th Barbados will travel to Trinidad while Guyana is at Bermuda.

Barring any major surprises, Guyana and Trinidad should finish October both with 12 points setting up a November showdown to advance. Both Barbados and Bermuda will officially be eliminated on the 7th if they LOSE their games or if one DRAWS and the other LOSES. Only wins from here on out will save them.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts

Actual:

Guyana-6 pts
Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Bermuda-0 pts
Barbados-0 pts

I was really unconfident in picking this group in August. Apparently that was unjustified. It's a 2-team group, plain and simple.

September Review: Asia-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-South Korea def. Lebanon 6-0 in Goyang, South Korea on September 2, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (8',45+1',67'), Ji Dong-Won (66',85'), Kim Jung-Woo (82')

Exactly as thorough of a beating you'd expect from a game featuring a top 3 team in Asia and the lowest ranked Round 3 participant. As exhibited by the final scoreline, Lebanon never put up a fight in this game and a flurry of 2nd half goals for South Korea only padded their stats going forward. As we'll see in a second though, results can be meaningless for predicting future matches.

Game 2-Kuwait def. United Arab Emirates 3-2 in Al Ain, U.A.E. on September 2, 2011

• Kuwait Goals-Yousef Nasser (7',65'), Bader Al-Mutwa (51')
• U.A.E. Goals-Ismail Al Hammadi (84'), Ahmad Khalil (89')

A pair of late goals by U.A.E. made this game appear closer then it was. In actuality, Kuwait had this in the bag around halftime. Having thoroughly dominated possession and chances in the first half, Kuwait put the game out of reach with a pair of goals in the 51st and 65th minutes to seal the victory. U.A.E. found their game in the last 10 minutes but it was too little too late at that point.

Game 3-Lebanon def. United Arab Emirates 3-1 in Beirut, Lebanon on September 6, 2011

• Lebanon Goals-Mohammed Ghaddar (37'), Akram Moghrabi (53'), Roda Antar (83')
• U.A.E. Goals-Mahmoud Khamees (15')

Say what? Dude, someone has to be fired for this one. Oh good, U.A.E.'s way ahead of me. Embarrassing is the only word that can come to mind for U.A.E. losing to unequivocably the worst team remaining in Asian qualifying. A team that not even 2 months ago, U.A.E. blew out of the water to the tune of a 6-2 victory. Embarrassing. U.A.E. is now 4 points back of second place with 2 games to play against South Korea. Vultures are starting to circle over the country...Now to take time to congratulate Lebanon. I've been back-handedly insulting you prett much this whole post but there's no arguing with results. I still think you have no shot at getting out of this group but here's hoping you prove me wrong.

Game 4-South Korea tied Kuwait 1-1 in Kuwait City, Kuwait on September 6, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (8')
• Kuwait Goals-Hussain Fadel (53')

I'd love to claim omniscience having cautioned in my preview against a South Korean letdown this game but I also predicted they'd win so I can't exactly do that. An early Korean goal made it look like they were going to run away with another game but that was not the case. It was surprisingly a very even game with Kuwait often finding itself the aggressor. Kuwait's strategy of peppering the Korean goals with shots whenever they could paid off in the 53rd minute with an equalizer that turned out to be the final tally of the match. Both sides would have liked a win this game but a draw combined with a U.A.E loss works just as well for both teams.

Thoughts

Kuwait-Could not have asked for a better start to this group. Defeated U.A.E on the road and managed a surprising draw against South Korea. Moreover, they are 4 points clear of U.A.E. in second place and are now afforded some breathing room in the group with Lebanon to play twice still.

Lebanon-Goes without saying but you can't advance without winning games. Lebanon has given themselves a glimmer of hope in qualifying with the victory over U.A.E. I'm still skeptical of how far they can actually go though. U.A.E. may have been a fluke, especially from a team that was demolished 6-0 4 days earlier.

South Korea-Still the best team in this group, despite the draw in Kuwait. Can't see anyone in the group knocking them off in Korea, and I imagine the return trip to Lebanon will be just as big a beating as the first game was. Would take a colossal surprise for Korea to not advance from this group.

U.A.E.-



Too dramatic? Or not dramatic enough?

Going Forward

October games have Kuwait visiting Lebanon and U.A.E. making the long trip to South Korea. Barring any upsets Kuwait and South Korea should be victorious. Lebanon needs this victory but as the projected 4th-place finisher in the group you can't expect a lot from them. U.A.E. is in must-win territory now and having to do that on the road against Korea is a Herculean task. I'm hoping they can to keep things interesting but don't be surprised if Kuwait and Korea find themselves on 7 points following October.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

South Korea-6 pts
U.A.E.-4 pts
Kuwait-1 pts
Lebanon-0 pts

Actual:

South Korea-4 pts
Kuwait-4 pts
Lebanon-3 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

Well...One of the teams is in the right position. That counts for something right? Right?...

North America: Round 2-Group 2 Primer

World Ranking

Barbados-145th (21st North America)
Bermuda-185th (31st North America)
Guyana-114th (13th North America)
Trinidad and Tobago-88th (8th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados at Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
• Bermuda at Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
• Guyana at Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana at Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
• Bermuda at Barbados

Past International Records

Barbados

• 2011 to date: 0-2-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
• vs. Group opponents: 10-18-11

Bermuda

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-1-1
• vs. Group opponents: 6-7-4

Guyana

• 2011 to date: 2-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
• vs. Group opponents: 4-16-8

Trinidad and Tobago

• 2011 to date: 1-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 5-8-5
• vs. Group opponents: 26-5-9

Team Glimpses

Barbados

All hope is not lost for Barbados in this group. They played a trio of games against groupmate Guyana in May of this year, picking up a draw and a pair of 1 goal losses. Not exactly going to intimidate their opponents in this group but it might give them a bit of confidence that they can compete with them. Barbados will be a thorn in the side of all of their opponents in this group. They don't hold any recent marquee wins but neither do they have any horrendous losses on their record since last qualifying campaign when they flamed out in a Round 2 pairing against the U.S. Without question they need to raise their game; almost every team does and Barbados is definitely a longshot in this group. But it isn't an impossibility for the Caribbean nation. Their first four games are against Guyana and Trinidad. They don't need to take every game but if Barbados can manage 1 victory against each team, they might be poised to have a shot at the group.

Bermuda

Good news for Bermuda. Top-seeded Trinidad & Tobago was the team they met up with in Round 2 in 2010 qualifying. They split the results and lost 3-2 on aggregate. Bad news for Bermuda. They haven't played since August 2008 and that win was their last in an international game. I'm having a hard time reconciling Bermuda's 2010 qualifying results with present form. By all accounts, a Round 1 win and a near Round 2 upset of an eventual CONCACAF finalist is a great result for Bermuda. But then they just stopped playing and their ranking has plummeted (because they haven't played). Conventional wisdom says they're at the bottom of the pile in Group 2, but then again the last results I have to go off of suggest otherwise. This will subsequently be one of the teams I'm watching very closely in the first couple games, more out of curiosity then anything. If they can pull an early upset, then this group is truly wide open. If not then might I suggest to Bermuda to play a few more games. Because they definitely had some momentum last campaign.

Guyana

Along with Suriname, the other South American nation that is a member of CONCACAF. Barring any major surprises, Guyana should be the primary threat facing Trinidad and Tobago at the top of the group. They've met twice in the past year, drawing in a friendly in Guyana and losing 2-1 to Trinidad in Trinidad at the 2010 Caribbean Championship. They'll some time to sit and ponder their rematches though, as they won't occur until November. It's imperative for Guyana to go in to those games with 3 or 4 wins. They can't afford to be dropping games against a pair of pesky teams in Barbados and Bermuda. Sights will be on Trinidad throughout the group but any slipup before that will be devastating.

Trinidad and Tobago

The top seed in the group, they post a formidable record against their group opponents, with 26 wins and just 5 losses in 40 games. Trinidad haven't been at their best since 2010 qualifying ended. They picked up 3 losses in their next 4 losses and haven't come close to their qualfiying form since 2009. A 3-0 win against India recently in a tune-up shows that they're still a dangerous team in the Caribbean. One advantage afforded to Trinidad is their new head coaching hire Otto Pfister. Pfister led a surprising Togo team at the 2006 World Cup Finals and then led Cameroon to a final in the 2008 African Cup of Nations. He's known for having an oft-tumultuous relationship with his players but there is no denying is pedigree coaching on the international stage. Trinidad also benefits from having a number of players playing abroad in major professional leagues, most notably: Kenwyne Jones, first-choice striker for Stoke City in the English Premier League.

September Games:

Game 1
Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Game 2
Barbados at Guyana
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:30 pm EDT
Location: Providence Stadium, Georgetown, Guyana

Game 3
Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
September 6, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados

Game 4
Guyana at Bermuda
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

My gut tells me Guyana and Trinidad pick up a pair of victories this go-around but for some reason I'm really not confident in either one right now. There are any number of permutations as to how this group will look September 7th which is exciting as an observer, this early in qualifying. Biggest upset potential: Barbados at home against Trinidad.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

.....???

Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts

Asia: Round 3-Group 2 Primer

World Ranking

Kuwait-95th (10th Asia)
Lebanon-159th (29th Asia)
South Korea-28th (3rd Asia)
U.A.E.-109th (15th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Lebanon at South Korea
• Kuwait at U.A.E.

September 6, 2011

• U.A.E. at Lebanon
• South Korea at Kuwait

October 11, 2011

• U.A.E. at South Korea
  
• Kuwait at Lebanon

November 11, 2011

• Lebanon at Kuwait
• South Korea at U.A.E.

November 15, 2011

• U.A.E. at Kuwait
• South Korea at Lebanon

February 29, 2012

• Kuwait at South Korea
• Lebanon at U.A.E.

Past International Records

Kuwait

• 2011 to date: 6-3-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-4-1
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 33-27-14
  

Lebanon

• 2011 to date: 1-4-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-6-1
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 4-20-9
  

South Korea

• 2011 to date: 7-1-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-2-8
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 22-10-9
  

U.A.E.

• 2011 to date: 3-2-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-9-3
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 21-23-16

Team Glimpses

Kuwait

One of likely two teams vying to join South Korea in Round , Kuwait have been on a tremendous roll of late. All 3 losses this year came at the beginning of January to top 7 teams in the region. Since, they have gone undefeated in 10 straight games, including draws with Bahrain and Jorda, a win over Saudi Arabia and a 6-0 beatdown of group-mate Lebanon in July. Kuwait's sights should be set squarely on U.A.E. in Group 2. In all likelihood, one and only one of those teams will advance and they are literally an evenly matched pair. All-time record between the two sides? 14-14-7. Kuwait is a young team with few big name standouts but one of the most experienced team members is goalkeeper Nawaf Al-Khaldi. Kuwait have only surrendered 3 goals in their 10 game unbeaten streak. If Al-Khaldi can help maintain that pace, they will be in good hands.

Lebanon

I said in my Asian qualifying breakdown that Lebanon had as good a chance as Kuwait and U.A.E. at advancing. I would officially like to retract that statement right now. Plain and simple: they are severely overmatched in this group. Lebanon played exhibition games against both Kuwait and U.A.E. in July, losing both games by a combined score of 12-2. They have never defeated either of South Korea or U.A.E. in a senior level match, having played 13 games against the two teams. Lebanon is going to struggle, and struggle greatly in this group. They also have the unfortunate task of a road game against South Korea to open the group. A trial by fire if there ever was one.

South Korea

Far and away the best team in the group, South Korea will be looking to make its 8th consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals in 2014. South Korea has one of the largest talent bases to pull from in Asia with players being called up from the domestic league, Japan's J-League and from some of the major European leagues. South Korea could struggle due to the international retirement of Manchester United star Park Ji-Sung, but the sheer volume of young players they have in their system should make up for his absence. Best player in the side now that Park has moved on is Park Chu-Young, a striker who plays for Monaco in the French Ligue 1. Park is also the new captain of the South Korean side.

U.A.E.

Despite a 4-9-3 record in 2010 qualifying, it could actually be considered a successful campaign for the Emirates. Handily defeating Vietnam in Round 1, they were just able to squeak past Syria in Round 3. Once in the final Round 4, the lost 7 of 8 games, only managing a surprise draw with Iran in the middle of that campaign. They might not admit it but they were overmatched in that group. The experience gained from those losses will be invaluable going forward however. U.A.E. now knows what it needs to do, and what level it needs to achieve in order to get all the way to the end of Asian qualifying. A relatively young squad, only 4 consistent members of the national team have over 50 appearances with the team. Almost their entire roster plays in the domestic league which does not get much press so the team is always a bit of a mystery to opponents. One area that must be improved on is goalkeeping, as they gave up over 2 goals a game to opponents in Round 4 of the 2010 campaign. Expect newcomer Ali Khasif to be tasked with that chore.

September Games

Game 1
Lebanon at South Korea
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EDT
Location: Goyang Stadium, Goyang, South Korea

Game 2
Kuwait at U.A.E.
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Al Qatara Stadium, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

Game 3
U.A.E. at Lebanon
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Beirut, Lebanon

Game 4
South Korea at Kuwait
September 6, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Kuwait City, Kuwait

One big marquee matchup and that is the opening day game between Kuwait and U.A.E. In my opinion, it's more important for Kuwait to get the win at this juncture, simply because they'll have South Korea to face 4 days later. Losing to U.A.E. on the 2nd could put Kuwait at 0-2 after 2 games, a mark they'll be desperate to avoid.

As was mentioned earlier, trial by fire for Lebanon who has to visit South Korea, then immediately turn around and come home to play a U.A.E. team that demolished them not even two months prior. Speaking of travel, look for a possible letdown from South Korea when they visit Kuwait on the 6th. Long trips in short succession between games are never conducive to a team's best performance.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

South Korea-6 pts
U.A.E.-4 pts
Kuwait-1 pts
Lebanon-0 pts