November 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 1

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

China-70th (Up 3), 5th Asia (Even)
Iraq-91st (Up 16), 8th Asia (Up 5)
Jordan-81st (Up 4), 7th Asia (Even)
Singapore-139th (Down 3), 20th Asia (Up 1)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Singapore 1-2 China
• Jordan 2-0 Iraq

September 6, 2011

• Iraq 2-0 Singapore
• China 1-2 Jordan

October 11, 2011

• Iraq 1-0 China
• Jordan 3-0 Singapore

November 11, 2011

• Singapore at Jordan
• China at Iraq

November 15, 2011

• Iraq at Jordan
• China at Singapore

February 29, 2012

• Jordan at China
• Singapore at Iraq

November Games:

Game 7
China at Iraq
November 11, 2011
Time: 9:15 am EST
Location: Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar*

Game 8
Singapore at Jordan
November 11, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Amman International Stadium, Amman, Jordan

Game 9
China at Singapore
November 15, 2011
Time: 5:30 am EST
Location: Jalan Besar Stadium, Jalan Besar, Singapore

Game 10
Iraq at Jordan
November 15, 2011
Time: 11:00 EST
Location: Amman International Stadium, Amman, Jordan

*-Game being played in Qatar as a result of FIFA'S current ban on matches being hosted in Iraq. Details here.

4 games for Asian groups this month and like most of them, this group could very well be decided based on these results. Game 7 will see a rematch of one of the most highly anticipated games from last month, which saw Iraq upset China on the road. This game is critical for China's hopes of advancement. If they win then are even with Iraq on points and control their own destiny. Lose or draw and they'll need Iraq to falter somewhere in the future. Jordan hosts Singapore in Game 8 fresh off a 3-0 victory last month. Jordan looks poised to grab their 4th win in 4 games this round and widen their lead over the group.

Game 9 will see China traveling to Singapore and getting what could be a welcome repreive with an opponent they should readily defeat. Game remains a must-win for China regardless of the Iraq result to keep pace in the group. In Game 10, Iraq will visit Jordan for the second battle of neighbours in this group. At the very worst, Iraq will be tied on points with China this game and while a win would preferred, Iraq could probably settle for a draw and be alright with Singapore still to play.

Post-November Standing Predictions:

a-Jordan-13 pts
Iraq-8 pts
China-7 pts
x-Singapore-0 pts

I think Jordan and China will easily pick up their wins against Singapore, eliminating Singapore and advancing Jordan in the process. Iraq has a pair of tough games to play but with a quasi-home field against China and facing a Jordan team who might let off a bit after advancing, Iraq should be able to manage a draw in both games, keeping themselves ahead of China in the standings.

October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Jordan def. Singapore 3-0 in Jalan Besar, Singapore on October 11, 2011

• Jordan Goals-Abdullah Deeb (11'), Anas Bani Yaseen (54'), Ahmad Hayel (64')

Another win for Jordan who is appearing to get more comfortable in qualifying with every game that passes. A header by Deeb in the 11th minute gave Jordan the advantage and they put the game away early in the second-half with a pair of goals from close range. Singapore actually played one of their better games in qualifying so far but Jordan in their current form is a tough challenge for anyone in Asia.

Game 6-Iraq def. China 1-0 in Shenzhen, China on October 11, 2011

• Iraq Goals-Younis Mahmoud (45')

In my October Awards, I named Iraqi Coach Zico as the Lucky Guy of the month. Reflecting upon this game, I'm still not sure exactly how Iraq managed to pick up 3 points in this game. Chinwas all over Iraq the entire match with countless chances and a wide margin of victory in terms of possession. China also had the luxury of a 25-minute period of 11-on-10 play when Iraq's Bassim Abbas was red-carded. And yet, a long cross off of a Chinese mistake led to the only goal of the game, netted for Iraq. Based on quality of play, China should have won the game. But results don't always go the way of the better team in sport and that was the case in this game.

Thoughts

China-I said last month that China's biggest problem plaguing them was finishing touch. Everything else was solid but they just needed to be more clinical in the opposing penalty area. Yeah, that hasn't happened yet. Granted, Iraqi goalkeeper Mohammed Gassid is the best in the group and made some fine saves but there is no excuse for losing at home to an undermanned team in a game you dominated. Results like that will cripple a team in qualifying, and no surprise, China is currently not in a position to advance as of now. China has just 3 goals for in 3 games, not good enough in a group with teams like Iraq and Jordan.

Iraq-Best course of action after a game like they had this month? Just move on. Iraq was not at their best and was frankly lucky to emerge a winner. But they did get a win and at the end of the day, that's what matters. The win was doubly important though because Iraq has forfeited away the ability to host their 2 remaining home games in Iraq. Every game will be a road game for them but a neutral site venue is still preferable to a hostile road venue. Picking up 3 points from China in China is a huge boost to Iraqi qualifying hopes. Iraq has China again next month and this win has given them some breathing room for that match, scheduled to be played in Qatar.

Jordan-Jordan is very close to clinching a Round 4 berth in Asia, a remarkable feat for a nation many pegged as being a surefire 3rd-place finisher in this group. Not only has Jordan been winning games they weren't expected to, they have been dominating their opponents both this round and last. In 5 qualifying matches for 2014 so far, Jordan has scored 17 goals and allowed just 2. Regardless of the opposition, those numbers are indicative of a very good team. Advancement to Round 4 seems a foregone conclusion now and I'm looking forward to seeing how they fare against the cream of the crop in Asia that round.

Singapore-With no points in 3 games, Singapore is on the verge of elimination and with just 1 goal in those matches, doesn't appear able to put up the fight necessary to stick around in this group. It's a tough situation for Singapore to be in, they're clearly the worst team in the group and while they would love to advance to the next round, realistic expectations for this team had to be low coming in to qualifying. Best case scenario for Singapore is to maybe play the role of spoiler going forward and possibly interfere with another team's hopes of advancing while redeeming some pride for Singapore.

Going Forward

Full 4-game slate for Asia in November. On November 11th, China has Iraq in a rematch in Doha, Qatar while Jordan will be looking to possibly clinch advancement when they host Singapore. China then travels to Singapore on November 15th while Jordan hosts Iraq. Biggest game on that schedule is the Iraq-China rematch. A Chinese victory puts them level with Iraq with 2 games to play while an Iraqi victory would put them 6 points ahead of China with Singapore still to play. Crucial game for both but a death sentence for China should they lose.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Jordan-9 pts
China-6 pts
Iraq-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Actual:

Jordan-9 pts
Iraq-6 pts
China-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Huge upset by Iraq in China. If China fails to advance, they'll be looking back and kicking themselves for that loss.

October 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 1

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

China-73rd (Even), 5th Asia (Even)
Iraq-107th (Up 1), 13th Asia (Up 1)
Jordan-85th (Up 6), 7th Asia (Up 1)
Singapore-136th (Down 5), 21st Asia (Down 3)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Singapore 1-2 China
• Jordan 2-0 Iraq

September 6, 2011

• Iraq 2-0 Singapore
• China 1-2 Jordan

October 11, 2011

• Iraq at China
• Jordan at Singapore

November 11, 2011

• Singapore at Jordan
• China at Iraq

November 15, 2011

• Iraq at Jordan
• China at Singapore

February 29, 2012

• Jordan at China
• Singapore at Iraq

October Games:

Game 5
Jordan at Singapore
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Jalan Besar Stadium, Jalan Besar, Singapore

Game 6
Iraq at China
October 11, 2011
Time: 8:15 am EDT
Location: Shenzhen Bay Sports Center, Shenzhen, China

Jordan travels to Singapore in the first game. Jordan is the clear favourite and will be looking for their 3rd win in as many games in this round of qualifying. Singapore has no points to show so far and desperately needs something to stay in contention to advance.

Iraq-China will pit the 2 second-place teams together and will provide the victor with a bit of breathing room halfway through group play.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Jordan-9 pts
China-6 pts
Iraq-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

September Review: Asia-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-China def. Singapore 2-1 in Kunming, China on September 2, 2011

• China Goals-Zheng Zhi (69'), Hai Yu (73')
• Singapore Goals-Aleksandar Duric (33')

A wake up call for the Chinese team if ever there was one. Opening against the lowest-ranked team in the group at home. China was behind with just 20 minutes to play before Zheng Zhi converted a penalty kick. China has to take better advantage of scoring opportunities that present themselves. Prior to Zheng's goal, China missed a penalty kick and found 2 goalposts. Convert 1 or 2 of those chances and they're running away with this game rather then scrambling to find a victory.

Game 2-Jordan def. Iraq 2-0 in Arbil, Iraq on September 2, 2011

• Jordan Goals-Hassan Abdel Fattah (43'), Abdullah Deeb (47')

Pre-September odds suggested only one of these teams would advance in Group 1. I stand by that at this point and Jordan did a great job of grabbing 3 points on the road against Iraq, sending themselves on the road to first place in the group. Jordan dominated this game from start to finish and was rewarded with a pair of goals on either side of the halftime whistle.

Game 3-Iraq def. Singapore 2-0 in Jalan Besar, Singapore on September 6, 2011

• Iraq Goals-Alaa Abdul-Zahra (49'), Younis Mahmoud (86')

Cross-continent travel with a quick turnaround can be deadly in international soccer but Iraq passed this test with flying colours, posting a 2-0 victory in a game where the scoreline could easily have been larger. It's tough to rebound from a big loss and come back to face a tough opponent in a few days but Iraq handled Singapore with little trouble to keep up with the other top teams in the group.

Game 4-Jordan def. China 2-1 in Amman, Jordan on September 6, 2011

• Jordan Goals-Baha'a Abdul-Rahman (49'), Amer Deeb (55')
• China Goals-Hao Junmin (57')

I made a point of mentioning it in their first game because it becomes more apparent now. China needs to work on finding a finishing touch. China was the better team on the field in Amman yesterday, as they were in Kunming last week, but all they have to show for that are 3 points and a +0 goal differential. Jordan can score; we saw that last round when they put up 9 on Nepal in a game. China has to be able to match that output and with the amount of chances they had, 1 goal just isn't going to cut it.

Thoughts

China-Put the ball in the net and you'll be fine. It's that simple. They came in to this group as the top-ranked team and I believe they still are. But you have to show on the field that you are the best team and the ultimate measuring stick of that is getting more goals then your opponent. I think they'll be fine as long as they can recover their scoring touch in the near future.

Iraq-Not what they would have hoped for in the Jordan game but they can take solace in a very positive performance against Singapore, and in newly appointed coach Zico. Zico was appointed right before games started and hasn't really had an opportunity to work with his new team yet. Iraq will only get better under his tutelage and I doubt we'll see many more lapses at home like they showed against Jordan.

Jordan-Every qualifying campaign, teams come out of nowhere to shock everyone (Gabon comes to mind in 2010 qualifying). Jordan is putting itself in position to be that team this time around. One of just 2 teams in Asia with 6 points after 2 games (Australia the other), Jordan is firmly on top of Group 1 standings. More incredible; they've accomplished this without having played 4th-place Singapore yet. Obviously, they can't suffer a lapse at this point but if they continue the streak of play they showed in September, a berth in Round 4 seems a given for Jordan.

Singapore-Full credit to Singapore for their fight and tenacity; they had China on the ropes in Kunming before fate caught up to them. A more disappointing display against Iraq at home though as they never challenged the visitors and could muster little offence. Finding wins was always going to be a challenge for Singapore and with 2 games against Jordan as well as a home game against China left, they appear to be longshots to advance right now.

Going Forward

Only one October matchday for the AFC and it falls on October 11, 2011. Jordan will play at Singapore while Iraq will play at China. Barring a major upset, Jordan should walk out of Singapore with 3 more points which makes China-Iraq the premier game for this group. A win for either team would put them 3 points clear of the other for second place halfway through the group. China will have the home advantage in that game although they'll need to resolve their scoring woes prior to it. Zico will have had time to prepare his team as much as is necessary prior to that game and it should be a fascinating one.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

China-4 pts
Iraq-4 pts
Jordan-2 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Actual:

Jordan-6 pts
China-3 pts
Iraq-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Didn't foresee Jordan being as strong as they were. Figured both their games would be draws so kudos to the Jordanian players for pulling out wins in both games. Singapore with a firm grasp on the back of the group as expected.

Asia: Round 3-Group 1 Primer

World Ranking

China-73rd (5th Asia)
Iraq-108th (14th Asia)
Jordan-91st (8th Asia)
Singapore-131st (18th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Singapore at China
• Jordan at Iraq

September 6, 2011

• Iraq at Singapore
• China at Jordan

October 11, 2011

• Iraq at China
• Jordan at Singapore

November 11, 2011

• Singapore at Jordan
• China at Iraq

November 15, 2011

• Iraq at Jordan
• China at Singapore

February 29, 2012

• Jordan at China
• Singapore at Iraq

Past International Records

China

• 2011 to date: 7-1-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-2-3
  
• vs. Group opponents: 17-5-7
  

Iraq

• 2011 to date: 4-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-2
  
• vs. Group opponents: 26-12-10
  

Jordan

• 2011 to date: 4-2-7
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-4-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 8-24-11
  

Singapore

• 2011 to date: 3-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-4-0*
  
• vs. Group opponents: 2-12-2
  

*-Singapore were given 3-0 defeats in two qualifying matches for fielding an ineligible player.

Team Glimpses

China

Chinese football fell off after their 2002 Finals appearance. Despite a strong side, they failed to make the final group stages of qualifying in both subsequent campaigns. They seem to have found their rhythm though this year and find themselves ranked in the top 5 on the continent. Key players through qualifying will be Qu Bo, emotional leader and one of the only remaining holdovers from the 2002 World Cup team and Xu Yang, who netted 4 goals in Round 2 of 2014 qualifying.

Iraq

Political turmoil over the past decades has made it difficult for Iraq to compete on a consistent basis at the World stage but when they find their groove, they are a very difficult team to play against. Look no further than their run from 2007-2009. In 2007, they were the upset winners of the Asian Cup, knocking off Australia, South Korea and Saudi Arabia in the process. That win sent them to South Africa in 2009 for the Confederations Cup, where they drew with 2010 World Cup participants South Africa and New Zealand. Dangerous squad and now that they are able to play at home again, they will be a huge threat in this group. Best player is captain Younis Mahmoud, who has 34 goals in his near 100 games with the national team.

Jordan

A team that has flown under the radar in Asia, they are actually the 2nd seed in this group behind only China. An abysmal record against group opponents is not indicative of their current form, as most of those losses came to neighbour Iraq in previous decades. Jordan's 9-0 defeat of Nepal in Round 2 of qualifying will make this entire group wary. No matter the opponent, the ability to explode offensively that Jordan has will concern any opponent. Two names to keep an eye on: Hassan Abdel Fattah who scored 4 goals in 1 game in Round 2 and Odai Al-Saify, a mainstay up front for Jordan and one of the few Jordanian players plying their trade in Europe.

Singapore

The minnow of the group, Singapore boasts just 2 all-time victories against group opponents, 1 each against Iraq and Jordan. Bit of a different strategy employed by Singapore in personnel selection; where most countries embrace home-grown talent, many Singaporean players have immigrated to the country. Perfect example of this is star forward Aleksandar Duric, born in Bosnia. This strategy, while criticized in practice by other nations (Germany, for example) has allowed Singapore the opportunity to compete at a higher level by not relying solely on a small Singaporean talent base. Duric is the man to watch with this team not only because of his scoring ability but because of his age. At 41, he is one of the oldest members of a national team in the world. More impressive: He only started playing internationally 4 years ago...

September Games

Game 1
Singapore at China
September 2, 2011
Time: TBD
Location: Tuodong Stadium, Kunming, China

Game 2
Jordan at Iraq
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil, Iraq

Game 3
Iraq at Singapore
September 6, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Jalan Besar Stadium, Jalan Besar, Singapore

Game 4
China at Jordan
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EDT
Location: Amman International Stadium, Amman, Jordan

The first round of games will be played within a week and in my opinion the first series of games in any group are the most important. You need to get off to a fast start in order to take some of the pressure off. Each team has to play 6 games and odds are everyone will lose at some point in the campaign. You absolutely want to give yourself some breathing room off the start so you don't spend the rest of qualifying trying to play catch-up.

One thing to also watch when 2 games are being played in short succession are travel effects. Jordan has a great opening section, visiting neighbour Iraq before getting China at home. Both China and Iraq have long-distance trips to make before their second game and we'll see if that has a toll on their performance.

Most exciting game should be the Jordan-Iraq matchup which is a regional rivalry. Should both China and Jordan win on the 2nd, that matchup in Amman could potentially vault one or the other to the front of the pack in this group for good. Singapore will need to focus on the Iraq matchup. Beating a fresh China squad in China will be a daunting task but they could catch Iraq napping on the road, especially if Iraq does not get the result it wants out of its Jordan game.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

China-4 pts
Iraq-4 pts
Jordan-2 pts
Singapore-0 pts