November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 6

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Antigua/Barbuda-90th (Up 11), 10th N. America (Even)
Curacao-171st (Up 7), 28th N. America (Up 1)
Haiti-107th (Up 1), 15th N. America (Down 3)
U.S. Virgin Islands-169th (Down 18), 27th N. America (Down 4)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Curacao 2-5 Antigua/Barbuda
• U.S. Virgin Islands 0-6 Haiti

September 6, 2011

• Haiti 4-2 Curacao
• Antigua/Barbuda 8-1 U.S. Virgin Islands

October 7, 2011

• Haiti 7-0 U.S. Virgin Islands
• Antigua/Barbuda 1-0 Curacao

October 11, 2011

• Curacao 2-2 Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands 0-10 Antigua/Barbuda

November 11, 2011

• Haiti at Antigua/Barbuda
• Curacao at U.S. Virgin Islands

November 15, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda at Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Curacao

November Games:

Game 9
Curacao at U.S. Virgin Islands
November 11, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EST
Location: Paul E. Joseph Stadium, Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands

Game 10
Haiti at Antigua/Barbuda
November 11, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Location: Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda

Game 11
U.S. Virgin Islands at Curacao
November 15, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Location: Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad, Curacao

Game 12
Antigua/Barbuda at Haiti
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Location: Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Don't let the rankings up top fool you. Curacao-USVI will be just as ugly as every other game USVI has played this round. Curacao tied Haiti and barely lost to Antigua in October. Also that month, those same 2 teams defeated USVI by a combined 17-0. Curacao will surely pick up their first win(s) of qualifying this month.

But the real matchup is between Haiti-Antigua/Barbuda, who square off with the group on the line. Four groups are still to be decided in CONCACAF Round 2 but this one is likely to be the most evenly matched and entertaining. 2 points separate the teams and they've combined to score 43 goals in 8 games, while giving up just 7. Haiti-Antigua promises to be a high-scoring affair with both teams giving 100% to try and advance to Round 3.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Antigua/Barbuda-15 pts
xHaiti-13 pts
x-Curacao-7 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

Advantage going in to this month goes to Antigua. With a 2 point advantage, they only need to win 1 game whereas Haiti must grab a win and at least a draw in the other. Antigua can pour it on offensively and I think they'll find the back of the net enough to secure at least 1 win against Haiti. First game will be played in Antigua, and they would love to have the group wrapped up before heading to Port-au-Prince.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 6

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Haiti def. U.S. Virgin Islands 7-0 in Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands on October 7, 2011

• Haiti Goals-Jean-Eudes Maurice (5', 66', 82'), Kim Jaggy (11'), Kervens Belfort (57', 74'), Reginal Goreux (64')

Bad to worse for U.S. Virgin Islands who dropped this game 7-0 after falling 6-0 to Haiti in September. No solace to be taken from this game for USVI, other then holding Haiti to 2 goals in the first half. Sounds sad but small victories like that are meaningful for a team as overpowered as this one is.

Game 6-Antigua/Barbuda def. Curacao 1-0 in Willemstad, Curacao on October 7, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Tamarley Thomas (73')

The first real scare of the tournament for the contenders in this group as Curacao pushed Antigua/Barbuda well in to the second half before Antigua was able to get on the scoreboard. Antigua controlled the pace of the game but had difficulty breaking through the Curacao lines and did well to avoid a draw in this game.

Game 7-Curacao tied Haiti 2-2 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti on October 11, 2011

• Curacao Goals-Rocky Siberie (7'), Sendley Bito (14')
• Haiti Goals-Jean-Eudes Maurice (25'), Kervens Belfort (60')

What was a scare for Antigua/Barbuda became a nightmare for Haiti. Needing to win to keep pace with Antigua, Haiti found themselves down 2-0 in the blink of an eye at home to an all of a sudden dangerous Curacao team. With advancement out of the picture, Curacao was willing to play a more aggressive offensive style, which gave them the shocking 2-0 cushion early on. Haiti was able to compose themselves and draw back even at 2-2 but that's as far as they could get, settling for a draw and giving Curacao their first point of qualifying.

Game 8-Antigua/Barbuda def. U.S. Virgin Islands 10-0 in St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda on October 11, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Tamarley Thomas (7', 41', 78'), Peter Byers (24', 31', 40'), Randolph Burton (55', 65'), Jamie Thomas (86'), Kieran Murtagh (90+2')

It gets painful to watch a team struggle in the manner that USVI is. There isn't much they can do either, they don't have the personnel to match up with teams like Antigua/Barbuda and Haiti. And unfortunately, with goal differential being a tiebreaker, neither of those teams can afford to let up against USVI, meaning you get results like this one.

Thoughts

Antigua/Barbuda-There are entire groups in qualifying with less goals scored the Antigua has to its credit. Remaining question is can they continue their offensive burst against a quality opponent such as Haiti. No disrespect to Curacao or USVI but they don't represent nearly the same challenge that Haiti will. Yes, Antigua has performed better then Haiti against those same opponents, but head-to-head is all that will matter in November.

Curacao-I think getting eliminated ticked this team off because they were an entirely different animal against Haiti. While they can't advance, they've done what a lot of teams struggle to do which is constantly improve throughout qualifying. For many teams, that is all you can ask and Curacao has done exactly that. If they can continue that trend, they could pose a bigger threat next qualifying campaign.

Haiti-I was waiting to see if either Haiti or Antigua would falter before meeting in November and Haiti did on their last game of October. While they were able to salvage something with the draw, they're in a real bad position now as they prepare to take on Antigua. Lose either of their 2 November games and they're out. Antigua can take a loss and still advance, a big advantage as these teams prepare to face off.

U.S. Virgin Islands-2 more games. 2 more games and they can end the agony of this round. Curacao should be a more fair fight for them although they'll still face an uphill climb just to get a point.

Going Forward

Curacao and USVI will play a pair of games to finish up their qualifying campaign. Both were eliminated October 7th. Haiti and Antigua will play a pair of games with the group on the line an Antigua/Barbuda holding a 2 point margin. Haiti will need to take 4 points minimum from those 2 games in order to advance.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-12 pts
x-Curacao-0 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

Actual:

Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-10 pts
x-Curacao-1 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

We'll see in November whether or not that draw with Curacao will come back to burn Haiti.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 6

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Antigua/Barbuda-101st (Up 5), 10th N. America (Up 1)
Curacao-178th (Down 12), 29th N.America (Down 3)
Haiti-108th (Up 8), 12th N. America (Up 3)
U.S. Virgin Islands-151st (Down 2), 23rd N. America (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Curacao 2-5 Antigua/Barbuda
• U.S. Virgin Islands 0-6 Haiti

September 6, 2011

• Haiti 4-2 Curacao
• Antigua/Barbuda 8-1 U.S. Virgin Islands

October 7, 2011

• Haiti at U.S. Virgin Islands
• Antigua/Barbuda at Curacao

October 11, 2011

• Curacao at Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Antigua/Barbuda

November 11, 2011

• Haiti at Antigua/Barbuda
• Curacao at U.S. Virgin Islands

November 15, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda at Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Curacao

October Games:

Game 5
Haiti at U.S. Virgin Islands
October 7, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Paul E. Joseph Stadium, Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands

Game 6
Antigua/Barbuda at Curacao
October 7, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad, Curacao

Game 7
Curacao at Haiti
October 11, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Game 8
U.S. Virgin Islands at Antigua/Barbuda
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda

Antigua/Barbuda and Haiti combined for 23 goals for in 4 September games against the very same opponents they'll face in October. The slimmest margin of victory in September was 2 goals in a game where the scoreline should have been wider. September's games were ugly, October might be even uglier.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-12 pts
x-Curacao-0 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

September Review: North America-Group 6

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Haiti def. U.S. Virgin Islands 6-0 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti on September 2, 2011

• Haiti Goals-James Marcelin (18'), Jean-Eudes Maurice (27'), Listner Pierre-Louis (44'), Jean Monuma (61'), Jean Marc Alexandre (65', 78')

Game 2-Antigua/Barbuda def. Curacao 5-2 in St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda on September 2, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Marc Joseph (42'), Quinton Griffith (45+2'), Tamarley Thomas (54'), Peter Byers (75', 80')
• Curacao Goals-Rihairo Meulens (9'), Rocky Siberie (74')

Game 3-Antigua/Barbuda def. U.S. Virgin Islands 8-1 in Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands on September 6, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Ranjae Christian (18'), Peter Byers (38', 51', 57'), Justin Cochrane (47'), George Dublin (54'), Randolph Burton (68', 74')
• U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Jaime Browne (49')

Game 4-Haiti def. Curacao 4-2 in Willemstad, Curacao on September 6, 2011

• Haiti Goals-Kevin Lafrance (37'), James Marcelin (58'), Donald Guerrier (61')
• Curacao Goals-Orin De Waard (12'), Angelo Zimmerman (43', OG 75')

A little perspective here. In 4 games, these teams scored 28 goals. In 2010 qualifying, there were 24 different groups across all continents and rounds that featured 4-team groups playing double round-robins. In the entire duration of the group, 10 of those groups scored 28 or fewer goals.

So. Group 6 of CONCACAF Qualifying. Offensive juggernaut, or just a few really bad teams? Obviously the answer has to lie somewhere in the middle (or in my humble opinion towards the latter). I'm forgoing individual game recaps because what's the point? I can't tell you anything that the 4 blowouts (Haiti/Curacao wasn't very close) and 7 goals per game average doesn't. Haiti And Antigua/Barbuda = good-ish, and Curacao and U.S. Virgin Islands are just really bad. Like, really, really bad...

Thoughts

Antigua/Barbuda-Very positive sign that they're averaging 6.5 goals for a game, despite weaker competition. More telling perhaps is the 1.5 goals allowed per game against the same weak competition. This group is going to come down to the Antigua/Haiti series. Goal-scoring helps, even against a strong team like Haiti but Antigua needs to be mindful that Haiti is just as much of a threat offensively as they are. In a group so far dictated by offence, defence is going to be the likely factor in determining who advances. Advantage so far in that category: Haiti.

Haiti-Was a little concerned about them coming in but they appear in fine shape. Scoreline of the Curacao game looks closer then it was, Haiti recovered nicely from a bit of a stumble out of the gate. Like Antigua, Haiti has 2 more games in October to prepare for their meeting in November. Important not to let down but also for Haiti to score a few more goals. Should they split the series in November goal differential is the first tiebreak, currently held by Antigua/Barbuda by 2 goals.

Curacao/U.S. Virgin Islands-Well...At least they're trying...In seriousness though, neither team really stood a shot in this group and are getting blown out as a result. It's cases like this where I miss the old CONCACAF qualifying format. Round 2 used to be a 2 game home-and-home series which gave less room for error but spared some serious embarassment for teams like U.S. Virgin Islands. I'm a proponent of weak teams playing strong ones to gain experience but there's a limit to that. U.S. Virgin Islands is on pace for 6 losses and 42 goals against this round. Not fun.

Going Forward

If either Haiti or Antigua lose a game in October, some thing is seriously wrong. Wrong as in asteroids are targeting the Earth and life as we know it is about to perish. Hit the snooze button on this group until November.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

Actual:

Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts

I feel guilty taking credit for this. Seems too much like taking candy from a baby. Not that I know what that feels like...

North America: Round 2-Group 6 Primer

World Ranking

Antigua/Barbuda-106th (11th North America)
Curacao-166th (26th North America)
Haiti-116th (15th North America)
U.S. Virgin Islands-149th (23rd North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Curacao at Antigua/Barbuda
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Haiti

September 6, 2011

• Haiti at Curacao
• Antigua/Barbuda at U.S. Virgin Islands

October 7, 2011

• Haiti at U.S. Virgin Islands
• Antigua/Barbuda at Curacao

October 11, 2011

• Curacao at Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Antigua/Barbuda

November 11, 2011

• Haiti at Antigua/Barbuda
• Curacao at U.S. Virgin Islands

November 15, 2011

• Antigua/Barbuda at Haiti
• U.S. Virgin Islands at Curacao
  

Past International Records

Antigua/Barbuda

• 2011 to date: 0-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-2-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 3-8-3
  

Curacao

• 2011 to date: 0-2-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-1-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 4-11-5
  

Haiti

• 2011 to date: 0-1-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-3-4
  
• vs. Group opponents: 16-2-4
  

U.S. Virgin Islands

• 2011 to date: 2-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-2-0

Team Glimpses

Antigua/Barbuda

Antigua/Barbuda is the 2nd seed in this group and is presently the highest-ranked squad of the four teams. Good news for Antigua/Barbuda, bad news for the quality of the group. Group 6 is probably the weakest group from head to toe in CONCACAF, with no top 10 teams on the continent in the group. Antigua's record in the past 12 months has not been world-beating, ending with a pair of losses in the Caribbean Championship to Jamaica and Guadeloupe. The only result they've put up in 2011 was a draw against an overrated Grenada squad in a friendly in May. Luckily for Antigua/Barbuda, they find themselves in a group with only one true competitor for the top spot in Haiti, who they will not meet until November. Games against Curacao and U.S. Virgin Islands need to be taken advantage of not only to ensure points are not lost but to improve all facets of their game prior to the decisive series with Haiti.

Curacao

Having formerly competed as Netherlands Antilles, this will be their first qualifying campaign as Curacao. Curacao was a surprise in 2010 qualifying, advancing to Round 2 and falling to 2014 groupmate Haiti 1-0 on aggregate. Unfortunately for Curacao, their only positive result since those games were a victory over weakling Aruba in 2010. That result against Haiti is about all Curacao has going for it as it enters qualifying for 2014. And unfortunately for them the teams have gone in opposite directions since as Haiti has only improved while Curacao has plummeted. They showed last time around the potential to compete at this stage of qualifying but if they perform as they have in all games since, they will be facing a long road in the next few months.

Haiti

Haiti is another team that has struggled of late along with their fellow group members. Difference between Haiti and other teams is the calibre of opponent in which they face. 6 games since the start of 2010, they've faced the likes of El Salvador and Argentina (losses) along with highly-rated Asian side Qatar (win). In my opinion, Haiti makes the right decision in regard to the opponents they seek out. You might not win your games but you will only get better by facing strong competition. Winning games has not been a problem historically for this team however, as evidenced by their 2 losses in 22 career games against this group. Another benefit for Haiti was the recent announcement that upgrades to stadiums within Haiti are completed and they will be allowed to play games at home, something that was up in the air for weeks leading up to these games. If Haiti can continue their air of dominance over their groupmates in the next few months then they could have one of the easiest roads of a top seed in this round.

U.S. Virgin Islands

They are definitely a minnow in this group. They've played 3 games in 2011, and those are the only 3 games they've played since last qualifying campaign. In Round 1, U.S. Virgin Islands won out over neighbour and rival British Virgin Islands to advance to this stage. But 2 victories over BVI and a draw with Anguilla is a far cry below the competition they're going to meet in this group. With no results to go off of since a 10-0 loss to Grenada in 2010 qualifying, it's safe to say that USVI will not be a force in Group 6.

September Games:

Game 1
Curacao at Antigua/Barbuda
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:30 pm EDT
Location: Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda

Game 2
U.S. Virgin Islands at Haiti
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Game 3
Haiti at Curacao
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad, Curacao

Game 4
Antigua/Barbuda at U.S. Virgin Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Paul E. Joseph Stadium, Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands

Barring a major upset, this group will be decided entirely in November when Antigua/Barbuda and Haiti meet. I'd be surprised if either team does not grab 6 points this month.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts