FRANCE vs. GERMANY
Quarterfinals - Game 1
Quarterfinals - Game 1
Date: July 4, 2014
Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Estadio do Maracana, Rio de Janeiro
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 11-8-6 France
Last Match: 2013 Friendly. Germany def. France 2-1.
Line: Germany +130
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.
Team Profiles
World Ranking: France (17th), Germany (2nd)
Managers: Didier Deschamps (FRA), Joachim Low (GER)
Captains: Hugo Lloris (FRA), Philipp Lahm (GER)
World Cup Appearances: 14 (FRA), 18 (GER)
Best Finish: France (Champions, 1998), Germany (3x Champions, Last in 1990)
Qualifying Records: France (5-2-3, GF: 18, GA: 8), Germany (9-0-1, GF: 36, GA: 10)
Previous Game Results
France
Germany
June 16th - Germany def. Portugal 4-0
June 21st - Germany tied Ghana 2-2
Rosters
Injuries/Discipline
Germany: Benedikt Howedes (Yellow Card), Philipp Lahm (Yellow Card), Shkodran Mustafi (Out - Hamstring)
Overview
A matchup I personally wanted to see along with about every other soccer fan in the world. The neighbours square off again in their first competitive match since the 1986 World Cup. The victor will earn a place in the semifinals, and if history repeats itself, the rights to Alsace-Lorraine.
It's a surprisingly infrequent rivalry between the two European rivals. Just 25 meetings in their history. They have played just 5 games since 2000, although 2 of those have come in the past 2 years with both sides earning 2-1 road wins.
Both sides enter the game surprisingly fit considering they've had to deal with injury woes throughout the tournament. Shkodran Mustafi is the only casualty for Germany although the return of Mats Hummels from flu would have put him on the bench regardless. France still have questions about Mamadou Sakho's knee and an illness for Raphael Varane but both centre backs are expected to play in this game. Will be interesting to see their fitness in this game though.
Germany have gone a false nine formation throughout this tournament and barring a major surprise will continue with that. I expect to see 4 or 5 German players take shots at being the striker in this game and sticking with what works best against a France back line that has given up little in the way of shots at Hugo Lloris this tournament. Germany's biggest concern this game will be their full backs matched up with Griezmann and Valbuena on the wings. There's a big speed advantage for France out there and the always dangerous Benzema in the centre of the field.
France have stuck with primarily the same lineup this tournament and shouldn't have any drastic changes today. The only questions are regarding Giroud and their centre backs. Olivier Giroud started against Nigeria last game but was in poor form and France picked their game up when Griezmann entered. Would anticipate Giroud is on the bench for this game with Benzema back in as the centre forward. Should 1 of the centre backs not be able to play, Laurent Koscielny has filled in admirably this tournament. Should they both be out then France have a huge problem.
Personnel
In the French Third: Written assuming Sakho/Varane play. Germany blew out Portugal in their opening match but in the 3 following games, have scored just 3 goals in regulation. This is a team that is hurting without a natural striker, despite Thomas Muller having 4 goals to his credit. Germany have spent far too much time operating outside opponents penalty areas and trying to set up the perfect goal opportunities rather then putting their heads down and just going at goal. France will be happy if they want to stay out of their area but France also won't allow Germany all day to move around. I expect Germany to have a slog trying to penetrate the French lines and barring some miracle strikes from distance, goals will be tough to find today. Advantage: France.
In the Midfield: Some fantastic individual matchups here as Cabaye/Matuidi/Pogba take on Schweinsteiger/Kroos/Lahm. Strictly on personnel, advantage has to go to Germany due to both quality and experience together. The French midfield are no slouches though. They're careful with the ball, they distribute well and they can pressure teams defensively. Germany a bit more organized both offensively and defensively though which may pose issues for the French. Advantage: Germany.
In the German Third: Time for some questions to be asked of the German defenders and also of the French tactics. France have a tendency to funnel balls towards the centre of the field on attack. Part of this is philosophy, part of it is that you have Karim Benzema in a shooting position. I feel that would be a mistake today. Germany's strength defensively lies in the middle with Lahm/Mertesacker/Hummels. Attacking them head-on is a recipe for failure. France need to take this game wide with Valbuena and Griezmann and go after Boateng and Howedes. Howedes lacks the pace to stay with Valbuena and I feel Griezmann can take advantage of some poor defensive awareness by Boateng. France attacks the wing and they should be fine. Attack the middle and they'll get trounced. Advantage: Even.
Goalkeeping: Not even going to attempt to pick these 2 apart for differences. Advantage: Even.
It's a surprisingly infrequent rivalry between the two European rivals. Just 25 meetings in their history. They have played just 5 games since 2000, although 2 of those have come in the past 2 years with both sides earning 2-1 road wins.
Both sides enter the game surprisingly fit considering they've had to deal with injury woes throughout the tournament. Shkodran Mustafi is the only casualty for Germany although the return of Mats Hummels from flu would have put him on the bench regardless. France still have questions about Mamadou Sakho's knee and an illness for Raphael Varane but both centre backs are expected to play in this game. Will be interesting to see their fitness in this game though.
Germany have gone a false nine formation throughout this tournament and barring a major surprise will continue with that. I expect to see 4 or 5 German players take shots at being the striker in this game and sticking with what works best against a France back line that has given up little in the way of shots at Hugo Lloris this tournament. Germany's biggest concern this game will be their full backs matched up with Griezmann and Valbuena on the wings. There's a big speed advantage for France out there and the always dangerous Benzema in the centre of the field.
France have stuck with primarily the same lineup this tournament and shouldn't have any drastic changes today. The only questions are regarding Giroud and their centre backs. Olivier Giroud started against Nigeria last game but was in poor form and France picked their game up when Griezmann entered. Would anticipate Giroud is on the bench for this game with Benzema back in as the centre forward. Should 1 of the centre backs not be able to play, Laurent Koscielny has filled in admirably this tournament. Should they both be out then France have a huge problem.
Personnel
In the French Third: Written assuming Sakho/Varane play. Germany blew out Portugal in their opening match but in the 3 following games, have scored just 3 goals in regulation. This is a team that is hurting without a natural striker, despite Thomas Muller having 4 goals to his credit. Germany have spent far too much time operating outside opponents penalty areas and trying to set up the perfect goal opportunities rather then putting their heads down and just going at goal. France will be happy if they want to stay out of their area but France also won't allow Germany all day to move around. I expect Germany to have a slog trying to penetrate the French lines and barring some miracle strikes from distance, goals will be tough to find today. Advantage: France.
In the Midfield: Some fantastic individual matchups here as Cabaye/Matuidi/Pogba take on Schweinsteiger/Kroos/Lahm. Strictly on personnel, advantage has to go to Germany due to both quality and experience together. The French midfield are no slouches though. They're careful with the ball, they distribute well and they can pressure teams defensively. Germany a bit more organized both offensively and defensively though which may pose issues for the French. Advantage: Germany.
In the German Third: Time for some questions to be asked of the German defenders and also of the French tactics. France have a tendency to funnel balls towards the centre of the field on attack. Part of this is philosophy, part of it is that you have Karim Benzema in a shooting position. I feel that would be a mistake today. Germany's strength defensively lies in the middle with Lahm/Mertesacker/Hummels. Attacking them head-on is a recipe for failure. France need to take this game wide with Valbuena and Griezmann and go after Boateng and Howedes. Howedes lacks the pace to stay with Valbuena and I feel Griezmann can take advantage of some poor defensive awareness by Boateng. France attacks the wing and they should be fine. Attack the middle and they'll get trounced. Advantage: Even.
Goalkeeping: Not even going to attempt to pick these 2 apart for differences. Advantage: Even.
France will win if:
Defensively Algeria provided a key for France to emulate. Have to be able to harry Germany on the ball and get them out of their comfort zone while maintaining your defensive shape. Too passive and Germany will take their time and pick France apart. Too aggressive and you're taking your chances as Germany punish small mistakes as good as anyone. Aggressive when the ball is in your zone to force turnovers but don't allow yourself individually to get drawn from your assignment. Offensively, work away at the wings and then look for Benzema/Pogba, etc. once the ball is deep.
Germany will win if:
Please attack. I mean that both objectively and subjectively. The midfield passing around is not going to get Germany anywhere against a surprisingly disciplined French team. Have to work their way through midfield with a specific goal in mind and that goal should have Hugo Lloris in front of it. Defensively, I personally feel Philipp Lahm should be in the back four with Howedes on the bench but Joachim Low doesn't appear to be taking suggestions. Need to keep their full backs further back today so they are in a position to defend against the French counter-attack and keep their wingers in front of them.
Have gone back and forth on this about half a dozen times. Trying to reconcile fact that I feel France's defence is up to the task and they can exploit Germany's with speed, with the fact that France were a laughing stock not so long ago and are facing a team that hasn't exited from this stage in this millennium.
Current form wins out.
France 2-1 Germany
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