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Germany 1-0 (ET) Argentina (Gotze 113')

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Game 61 Preview: Brazil vs. Germany



BRAZIL vs. GERMANY
Semifinals - Game 1



 Date: July 8, 2014
Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 12-4-5 Brazil
Last Match: 2011 Friendly. Germany def. Brazil 3-2.
Line: Brazil and Germany +170

Group A Preview here.
Group G Preview here.
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Brazil (3rd), Germany (2nd)
Managers: Luiz Felipe Scolari (BRA), Joachim Low (GER)
Captains: Thiago Silva (BRA), Philipp Lahm (GER)
World Cup Appearances: 20 (BRA), 18 (GER)
Best Finish: Brazil (5x Champions, Last in 2002), Germany (3x Champions, Last in 1990)
Qualifying Records: Brazil (N/A), Germany (9-0-1, GF: 36, GA: 10)

Previous Game Results

Brazil

Germany

June 16th - Germany def. Portugal 4-0
June 21st - Germany tied Ghana 2-2
July 4th - Germany def. France 1-0

Rosters


















Injuries/Discipline

Brazil: Neymar (Out - Back), Thiago Silva (Suspended - Card Accumulation)
Germany: Shkodran Mustafi (Out - Hamstring)

Projected Lineups

Brazil football formationGermany football formation

A new feature I wanted to include now that there's just one game a day. Based on internet reports and what they've done so far, these are my projected lineups in this game. There's selection questions for both sides though.

Without Neymar and Thiago Silva, Brazil have a few glaring issues. Dante is favoured to partner David Luiz in the central defence which has to be giving Luiz Felipe Scolari some concern. Neither player is the most defensively sound. Then there's the issue of replacing Neymar. The 2 choices appear to be the one above, putting Ramires in and shifting Hulk to the left wing; or to do a like for like swap with Willian on the left wing. Ramires' experience and Hulk's should win out in that battle. Brazil will have Luiz Gustavo back from suspension which should send Paulinho back to the bench.

Germany have a couple decisions as well. Miroslav Klose started the France game in place of Mario Gotze and I anticipate he will again today. Klose has more value starting today as Germany will likely want to score early and then slow the game down. Defensively, Per Mertesacker is still shaking off a flu apparently. If he starts, Germany should be best suited to dropping Howedes and moving Boateng out wide. They move move Lahm back to midfield though and drop either Khedira or Schweinsteiger.

Overview

Brazil's 12-year home unbeaten streak will face its stiffest test in that run today in Belo Horizonte. Brazil will take on the only team they'll face in the World Cup with a higher ranking and will do so without their captain and their best player.

Neymar fractured a vertebra in his back late in the quarterfinal against Colombia and is out for the remainder of the tournament. And Thiago Silva, who has been a godsend for the Brazilian defence this tournament is suspended after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament in the same game. Brazil attempted to appeal the card issuance to Silva but FIFA rejected that.

Germany won't have any complaints about the missing Brazilian players. Having struggled with a flu bug that has gone through their camp, Germany should come in to this game at near full-strength and will look to clinically dispatch of Brazil the way they did with a game France opponent in the quarterfinals.

Germany play a variant of a 4-5-1 formation often without a true striker. Even if they go without a striker, they are plenty dangerous in attack. Thomas Muller leads all European players with 4 goals in the tournament and should he play, Miroslav Klose is still seeking his elusive second goal of the tournament which would give him the all-time scoring record in the World Cup.

Brazil should still go with their 4-3-3 formation with Dante and Ramires the likely candidates to replace the two missing stars for Brazil. Hulk and Oscar still form a dynamic attacking pair to go with the poor finishing touch of Fred up front. Brazil will be relying heavily on their full backs and defensive midfield pairing of Luiz Gustavo and Fernandinho to bring balance to this game in both ends of the field.

Personnel

In the Brazilian Third: A lot of ball movement on its way from Germany against a back line that is missing its top player and the only one that truly plays defence first at all times. Germany will be expected to create plenty of scoring chances against this Brazil lineup. Advantage: Germany

In the Midfield: Matchup-wise, the best section of the field for Brazil. Luiz Gustavo is back which frees up Fernandinho to play off of Oscar offensively. Don't know how effective they can be against Schweinsteiger and Khedira though. Defensively, everyone has problems with the German midfield, no amount of injuries would have changed that for Brazil. Advantage: Germany

In the German Third: What a difference a player makes. With Neymar on the mend, Brazil have no reliable scoring option on the field. They still have some creativity and play-making potential with Hulk and Oscar but need the dynamic flare Neymar brings to the table. Up against this consistently strong German defence, Brazil will find quality chances few and far between. Advantage: Germany

Goalkeeping: Julio Cesar surprisingly good this World Cup, Neuer expected to be but he has even outshone his lofty expectations. Slight edge to Germany in overall quality for Manuel Neuer. Advantage: Germany

Brazil will win if:

Brazil aren't likely to change their style of play despite the opponent so they'll have to win this game in the offensive zone. If ever there was a time for Fred to get the naysayers off his back, today is that day. It's not just a recommendation, Fred needs to shine in Neymar's absence if Brazil are going to win. Hulk and Oscar are likely to be swarmed on the ball as they're the dangerous threats that any team would identify in this lineup. Fred needs to win some individual battles in the German penalty area and be the target man Brazil believe he can be, if only just to take pressure off everyone else.

Germany will win if:

I could probably just copy and paste this from every other preview. Patient on the ball offensively but work towards goal. Can't be left toying with the ball in midfield against Brazil who can counter-attack in a heartbeat. Make penetrating runs early and test out the holes in the new central defence pairing. Defensively, prevent Brazil from getting the ball in the centre of the field on attack. Germany can deal with the crosses in from the wings all day, keep the ball outside.

Prediction

Brazil's chances in this game faded drastically as Neymar was stretchered off the field in the quarterfinals. Brazil can get by without Neymar. They can get by without Thiago Silva. Against Germany though, they can't get by without both of them. Brazil has lost both their offensive flare and defensive rock for this game. Too much to overcome against Germany. The Germans score in the first half and pick up a late insurance goal as Brazil overextend themselves.

Germany 2-0 Brazil

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