October 2011 Review: North America-Group 4

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Canada def. Saint Lucia 7-0 in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia on October 7, 2011

• Canada Goals-Simeon Jackson (18', 28', 40'), Olivier Occean (34', 51'), Iain Hume (72', 86')

Canada was once again able to exploit poor defensive zone awareness by Saint Lucia creating runs against the opposing goal all game on the way to a 7-goal outburst. Simeon Jackson led the way in scoring, picking up a hat trick in a 20-minute first-half span. Saint Lucia was officially eliminated with this loss, pointless through 3 games to the surprise of no one.

Game 6-Puerto Rico tied Saint Kitts/Nevis 1-1 in Bayamon, Puerto Rico on October 7, 2011

• Puerto Rico Goals-Andres Cabrero (37')
• Saint Kitts/Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (59')

The draw allowed Puerto Rico to keep their slim advancement hopes alive but was devastating for Saint Kitts/Nevis as they fell 4 points behind Canada for the group lead. Puerto Rico's goal was their first in the competition as they finally managed to convert one of the many chances they've had so far this campaign. Saint Kitts managed the equalizing goal but looked flat the whole game, outplayed by the Puerto Rican team.

Game 7-Canada tied Puerto Rico 0-0 in Toronto, Canada on October 11, 2011

One of the strangest results of CONCACAF qualifying so far, Canada put forward a very weak performance, tying Puerto Rico on home soil and failing to score a goal in the process. Canada dominated possession but could not find a way past Puerto Rican keeper Brandon Saldana. Surprisingly, the best scoring chance of the game came from Puerto Rico late in the second half when Andres Perez was just barely denied by Canadian goaltender Lars Hirschfeld.

Game 8-Saint Kitts/Nevis tied Saint Lucia 1-1 in Basseterre, Saint Kitts/Nevis on October 11, 2011

• Saint Lucia Goals-Cliff Valcin (74')
• Saint Kitts/Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (83')

Tying Puerto Rico, while inconvenient for Saint Kitts is understandable. The teams are about even in calibre. A late goal to tie Saint Lucia on the other hand is nothing less then embarrassing for Saint Kitts who had a great chance to close the point gap with Canada before playing them but will be forced to win twice against Canada in order to advance.

Thoughts

Canada-Drawing Puerto Rico was disappointing but thanks to a couple of blunders by Saint Kitts, Canada remains firmly in control of the group. All they need is to draw Saint Kitts in one of their 2 November matches in order to advance to Round 3. Biggest concern coming out of the Puerto Rico game is the return of a long existing one: finishing ability. Canada was held goalless despite a serious possession advantage, after scoring 14 goals in their first 3 group matches.

Puerto Rico-Given an outside shot at advancing at the beginning of qualifying, they showed the form people expected of them this month, picking up a pair of draws against the leaders of the group. 3 ties in 4 games are a testament to the strong defence of this team but with only 1 goal for in 4 games, this team probably was never going to be a serious threat in the group. Will definitely have a chance to improve their standing in November when they meet Saint Lucia.

Saint Kitts/Nevis-I don't want to be that guy but if they'd done what they were expected this month, they'd be tied with Canada on points and have a much more favourable shot at advancing then they do now. Saint Kitts seems to be lacking the killer instinct needed against weaker opponents. They allowed both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia an opportunity and both teams seized on it, forcing Saint Kitts to focus not on winning but just on surviving.

Saint Lucia-Rebounded nicely from a 7-0 pounding to take a lead against Saint Kitts late only to see it wiped away before the final whistle. Saint Lucia will have Puerto Rico in November, the opponent most closely matched to them skill-wise in the group. While already eliminated, these games could be the most important for Saint Lucia as they continue to try and build their program and evaluate the talent available for next campaign.

Going Forward

Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia meet in a 2-game series. Both teams are eliminated and will just gain experience from the games. Saint Kitts/Nevis and Canada meet in a 2-game series with the group on the line. Saint Kitts/Nevis must win both games in order to advance to Round 3. With no losses on their record, Canada doesn't appear likely to give those wins up to Saint Kitts.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Canada-12 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-8 pts
x-Puerto Rico-2 pts
x-Saint Lucia-0 pts

Actual:

Canada-10 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-6 pts
x-Puerto Rico-3 pts
x-Saint Lucia-1 pts

Both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia picked up surprise draws on the 11th, making for quite a boring day for the group.