October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 4

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Canada-87th (Up 15), 8th N.America (Up 2)
Puerto Rico-145th (Down 1), 20th N.America (Even)
Saint Kitts & Nevis-123rd (Down 1), 17th N.America (Even)
Saint Lucia-185th (Down 1), 30th N.America (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Saint Lucia 1-4 Canada
• Puerto Rico 0-0 Saint Kitts and Nevis

September 6, 2011

• Saint Kitts and Nevis 4-2 Saint Lucia
• Canada 3-0 Puerto Rico

October 7, 2011

• Canada at Saint Lucia
• Saint Kitts and Nevis at Puerto Rico

October 11, 2011

• Puerto Rico at Canada
• Saint Lucia at Saint Kitts and Nevis

November 11, 2011

• Canada at Saint Kitts and Nevis
• Puerto Rico at Saint Lucia

November 15, 2011

• Saint Kitts and Nevis at Canada
• Saint Lucia at Puerto Rico

October Games:

Game 5
Canada at Saint Lucia
October 7, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Beausejour Stadium, Gros Islet, Saint Lucia

Game 6
Saint Kitts and Nevis at Puerto Rico
October 7, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Juan Ramon Loubriel, Bayamon, Puerto Rico

Game 7
Puerto Rico at Canada
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Game 8
Saint Lucia at Saint Kitts and Nevis
October 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Warner Park, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis

I think Saint Lucia has demonstrated enough to show that they won't challenge for any points in this group and Canada's road demolition of Puerto Rico in September makes me think they'll do the same at home. Which makes the Saint Kitts/Puerto Rico game the big one in this set of games. Puerto Rico needs a win to (temporarily) stave off elimination and Saint Kitts would love to be within 3 points of Canada at the end of October. Both teams have a lot to play for and it should be an intriguing game, assuming either team shows up to play which wasn't the case in their 0-0 draw September 2nd.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Canada-12 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-8 pts
x-Puerto Rico-2 pts
x-Saint Lucia-0 pts

I think Saint Kitts/Puerto Rico pick up another draw. Saint Kitts is a slightly better team and has a bit more to play for long-term but Puerto Rico will want to save face in this group and at home should be ready to play. Bad news for Saint Kitts if this is the result as they would need to win both sides of a doubleheader against Canada in November.