October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Uzbekistan def. North Korea 1-0 in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 11th

• Uzbekistan Goals-Aleksandr Geynrikh (15')

North Korea again struggled to find the back of the net and an early goal surrendered to Uzbekistan's Aleksandr Geynrikh was enough to give Uzbekistan the win and a 4-point advantage over the Koreans for second place in the group.

Game 6-Japan def. Tajikistan 8-0 in Osaka, Japan on October 11th

• Japan Goals-Mike Havenaar (11', 47'), Shinji Okazaki (19', 74'), Yuichi Komano (35'), Shinji Kagawa (41', 68'), Kengo Nakamura (56')

Prior to this game, goals were hard to come by in this group with only 6 having been notched in the first 5 games. Japan more the doubled that group output with an 8-0 thrashing of Tajikistan. 57% of goals scored in this group came from Japan in this game. Japan also holds over 70% of all the goals for in group play.

Thoughts

Japan-Any concerns people had about Japan after their first 2 games were quashed right around halftime on the 11th when they held a 4-0 lead. Japan reaffirmed in that game that they are the best in the group and they should be able to clinch advancement in November.

North Korea-North Korea scraped through the last qualifying period on defence alone. Unsurprisingly, that formula is the one they're using to try and get through qualifying again. And also unsurprisingly, that formula is failing. Thing about gimmicky teams is that after a while, opposing teams will get wise to the gimmick and be able to gameplan around it. North Korea is in a very precarious position now and if they don't abandon their all-defensive strategy, they won't have a hope of qualifying again.

Tajikistan-For their sake, I'm hoping they don't fold after having been humiliated at the hands of Japan this month. 8-0 losses at this stage of qualifying can eat away at a team and considering this team did not earn their way in to this stage, their morale has to be at an all-time low.

Uzbekistan-Uzbekistan's victory over North Korea was crucial for their chances of advancing. With 3 games to go, Uzbekistan now has a 4-point advantage over the Koreans and can afford to drop a game at some point in the future. Uzbekistan will face North Korea again next month and can secure advancement at that time. If they can repeat this performance, they'll be clear in to Round 4.

Going Forward

On November 11th, Japan will travel to Tajikistan while Uzbekistan hosts North Korea. Both Japan and Uzbekistan can clinch advancement that day, Uzbekistan if they win, Japan if both teams win. A Japan win seems destined to occur and unless North Korea can make a turnaround on the road, Uzbekistan should also be looking at a win.

On the 15th, North Korea will host Japan while Uzbekistan hosts Tajikistan. Always need to wait for the results but Japan and Uzbekistan look poised to be locked in to 1st and 2nd place after this month.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 5 pts
North Korea: 4 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

Actual:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 7 pts
North Korea: 3 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts