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Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Qualifying Recap - EUROPE

RUNDOWN

Teams Entered in Qualfiying: 53
Spots Allocated by FIFA: 13
Number of Rounds: 2
Number of Matches Played: 268
Goals Scored: 749
Top Goal-Scorer: 11 Goals; Robin van Persie (NED)

European Countries Previously in Cup Finals: 32
Most Appearances: Germany (Including West Germany) and Italy (18)
Best Finish: 10 World Titles amongst 5 Nations; Italy (4; 1934, '38, '82 and '06), Germany (3; 1954, '74, '90), England (1966), France (1998), Spain (2010)

INTRODUCTION

Far less complicated then my previous 2 write-ups, Europe's high number of allocated spots in the World Cup allows for a simplified qualifying procedure despite over 50 teams participating. For Round 1, teams were divided in to 9 groups. Group 9 would have 5 teams and the rest of the groups would have 6. Groups would play a double round-robin and group winners would qualify directly for Brazil. Of the 9 second-place teams in the groups, the top eight would advance to Round 2. Since the runner-up in Group 9 would have played 2 less games then everyone else, results against sixth-placed teams were discarded when looking at who the top second-place teams were.

In Round 2, the 8 remaining teams were seeded and drawn against an opponent for a 2-leg aggregate playoff. Playoff winners also qualified for the World Cup.

ROUND 1 (September 2012-October 2013)

Group 1


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Belgium
8
0
2
18
4
14
26
Croatia
5
3
2
12
9
3
17
Serbia
4
4
2
18
11
7
14
Scotland
3
5
2
8
12
-4
11
Wales
3
6
1
9
20
-11
10
Macedonia
2
7
1
7
16
-9
7

Touted as a battle for top spot between neighbours Croatia and Serbia, this group became the Belgium show as the steamrolled through their opponents. After tying Croatia at the beginning of qualifying, Belgium stunned Europe by traveling to Belgrade and knocking off Serbia 3-0. There was no looking back from there as they won their next 6 games and became one of the first European teams to clinch their spot in Brazil.

The anticipated Croatia/Serbia never materialized either. After the crushing Belgium loss, Serbia dropped their next game against Macedonia, falling 6 points behind Croatia for second spot. They travelled to Croatia for the next game needing a victory for any hope in the group. A pair of goals from Mario Mandzukic and Ivica Olic crushed those hopes though, and as clear as Belgium would win the group, Croatia at this time ran away with second position.

Croatia and Serbia tied their second game, giving Croatia the bragging rights in the so-called derby between the two former Yugoslav nations. While not impacting the group standings, a similar derby took place between Wales and Scotland, with Wales coming out victorious from both matches in crushing fashion. Scotland led in leg 1 in Cardiff for almost an hour before a Gareth Bale penalty equalized. Bale found the net again 7 minutes later, right before the whistle for the stunning comeback victory. It was a similar story in the 2nd leg in Glasgow. Scotland's 1-0 halftime lead was wiped out by a pair of Welsh goals in quick succession (again off a penalty), leaving Scotland empty-handed against their fellow British nation.

Full Results (Broken up by pairings since more games played in these groups)

Belgium/Croatia (1-1, 2-1)
Belgium/Macedonia (2-0, 1-0)
Belgium/Serbia (3-0, 2-1)
Belgium/Scotland (2-0, 2-0)
Belgium/Wales (2-0, 1-1)
Croatia/Macedonia (1-0, 2-1)
Croatia/Scotland (0-1, 0-2)
Croatia/Serbia (2-0, 1-1)
Croatia/Wales (2-0, 2-1)
Macedonia/Scotland (1-1, 1-2)
Macedonia/Serbia (1-0, 1-5)
Macedonia/Wales (2-1, 0-1)
Scotland/Serbia (0-0, 0-2)
Scotland/Wales (1-2, 1-2)
Serbia/Wales (6-1, 3-0)

Group 2


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Italy
6
0
4
19
9
10
22
Denmark
4
2
4
17
12
5
16
Czech Republic
4
3
3
13
9
4
15
Bulgaria
3
3
4
14
9
5
13
Armenia
4
5
1
12
13
-1
13
Malta
1
9
0
5
28
-23
3

The only group in Europe to feature 4 teams ranked in the top 50 at the time of the draw, this was expected to be Italy's to lose, but that they would face hiccups along the way. For the middle of the pack, the danger of this group was that assuming Italy would finish first, they had to separate themselves from the rest with enough points to not only take second place, but ensure they'd have enough to qualify as a top-8 team in the second place rankings.

The script for Italy went about as expected in this group. While the 4 draws may appear worrisome, half of those came after qualification had been secured, and they defeated all of the teams they tied throughout qualification in the other leg. It was a straight-forward campaign for the Italian team who had the luxury of no serious challengers to their lead as the group progressed.

The middle of the pack failed to separate themselves in any way from each other. Most games amongst them either finished in ties or a team would follow up a win with a momentum-killing loss. Going in to the final matchday, all teams but Malta had a shot at securing second-place in the group. Bulgaria and Denmark were in the driver's seat with 13 points each, with Czech Republic and Armenia behind on 12 each. Denmark made easy work of Malta, winning 6-0 and eliminating the Czechs and Armenia. The Czechs still got to play spoiler though, knocking off Bulgaria on the road and eliminating their shot at advancing. Denmark still had to wait and see how the other groups finished before knowing if they would be in Round 2.

Full Results

Armenia/Bulgaria (0-1, 2-1)
Armenia/Czech Rep. (0-3, 2-1)
Armenia/Denmark (4-0, 0-1)
Armenia/Italy (1-3, 2-2)
Armenia/Malta (1-0, 0-1)
Bulgaria/Czech Rep. (0-0, 0-1)
Bulgaria/Denmark (1-1, 1-1)
Bulgaria/Italy (2-2, 0-1)
Bulgaria/Malta (6-0, 2-1)
Czech Rep./Denmark (0-0, 0-3)
Czech Rep./Italy (0-0, 1-2)
Czech Rep./Malta (3-1, 4-1)
Denmark/Italy (1-3, 2-2)
Denmark/Malta (2-1, 6-0)
Italy/Malta (2-0, 2-0)

Group 3


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Germany
9
0
1
36
10
26
28
Sweden
6
2
2
19
14
5
20
Austria
5
3
2
20
10
10
17
Ireland
4
4
2
16
17
-1
14
Kazakhstan
1
7
2
6
21
-15
5
Faroe Islands
0
9
1
4
29
-25
1

A straightforward result with little surprises. Germany is one of the true powerhouses in world soccer and only setbacks were in a pair of wild games against Sweden.

Ireland effectively took themselves out of the 3-horse race for second, managing to take just 2 of 12 potential points against Sweden and Austria. The decider between those two came on the second last day of competition. Trailing Sweden by 3 points in the standings, Austria traveled to Sweden needing a victory but they could settle for a draw with Germany left for Sweden to face. A 1-0 halftime lead for Austria was erased by Martin Olsson in the 56th minute, and the dagger was delivered by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, minutes before injury time. The comeback win locked up second place for Sweden and eliminated upstart Austria.

The highlights of the group were the two Sweden-Germany games. The teams combined for a whopping 16 goals in their 2 group matches. The first leg, in Berlin saw Germany open with an onslaught at the Swedish goal. 3 first-half markers were followed by a fourth for Germany in the 55th minute. When most teams would have folded though, Sweden finally woke up. Sweden notched a pair of goals off Kim Kallstrom crosses in 3 minutes, and managed to find the next twice more, the 4th in the last seconds of injury time, to complete an improbable 4-goal, 30-minute comeback for the draw.

Leg 2 took place on the final day of the round. With no impact on the standings, both teams varied their lineups but that didn't decrease the action. Sweden picked up from their last outing against Germany, scoring in the 6th minute and adding to their total just before half. A Mesut Ozil goal at half cut the lead to 1, and then Germany exploded in the second, scoring 3 goals in 15 minutes, the latter two from Andre Schurrle. Sweden pulled back to 4-3, but in the 76th minute, Schurrle completed the hat trick and gave Germany a 5-3 victory. 2 incredibly entertaining matches and why Sweden is always an exciting team to watch.

Full Results

Austria/Faroe Is. (6-0, 3-0)
Austria/Germany (1-2, 0-3)
Austria/Ireland (2-2, 1-0)
Austria/Kazakhstan (0-0, 4-0)
Austria/Sweden (2-1, 1-2)
Faroe Is./Germany (0-3, 0-3)
Faroe Is./Ireland (1-4, 0-3)
Faroe Is./Kazakhstan (1-2, 1-1)
Faroe Is./Sweden (1-2, 0-2)
Germany/Ireland (6-1, 3-0)
Germany/Kazakhstan (3-0, 4-1)
Germany/Sweden (4-4, 5-3)
Ireland/Kazakhstan (2-1, 3-1)
Ireland/Sweden (0-0, 1-2)
Kazakhstan/Sweden (0-2, 0-1)

Group 4


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Netherlands
9
0
1
34
5
29
28
Romania
6
3
1
19
12
7
19
Hungary
5
3
2
21
20
1
17
Turkey
5
4
1
16
9
7
16
Estonia
2
7
1
6
20
-14
7
Andorra
0
10
0
0
30
-30
0

The runners-up in 2010 must have had smiles on their faces when they saw this group at the draw. The only other team in the group ranked in the top 40 ended up finishing 4th, and the Netherlands looked on pace to finish qualifying perfect, the only hiccup coming in a surprise 2-2 draw with Estonia.

Turkey, the expected runner-up struggled mightily out of the gate, losing 3 of their first 4 games, including losses to both Romania and Hungary. A 3-0 victory for Romania over Hungary gave them the advantage between the two teams, having drawn in their first leg. Having won 3 straight leading to the final matches, Turkey found themselves tied with Romania on 16 points, with Hungary trailing on 14 points. But with the Netherlands left to face, Turkey's hopes for advancing were grim, and a 2-0 loss to the Dutch sealed their fate.

As expected, Hungary defeated Andorra in their final game, to move to 17 points and secure a winless, drawless and goalless campaign for Andorra. They would need an Estonian win against Romania to advance though. Those hopes dwindled quickly as Romania took a 1-0 halftime lead, then locked up second-place with a second goal from Ciprian Marica ten minutes from the finish.

Full Results

Andorra/Estonia (0-1, 0-2)
Andorra/Hungary (0-5, 0-2)
Andorra/Netherlands (0-3, 0-2)
Andorra/Romania (0-4, 0-4)
Andorra/Turkey (0-2, 0-5)
Estonia/Hungary (0-1, 1-5)
Estonia/Netherlands (0-3, 2-2)
Estonia/Romania (0-2, 0-2)
Estonia/Turkey (0-3, 0-2)
Hungary/Netherlands (1-4, 1-8)
Hungary/Romania (2-2, 0-3)
Hungary/Turkey (3-1, 1-1)
Netherlands/Romania (4-1, 4-0)
Netherlands/Turkey (2-0, 2-0)
Romania/Turkey (1-0, 0-2)

Group 5


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Switzerland
7
0
3
17
6
11
24
Iceland
5
3
2
17
15
2
17
Slovenia
5
5
0
14
11
3
15
Norway
3
4
3
10
13
-3
12
Albania
3
5
2
9
11
-2
11
Cyprus
1
7
2
4
15
-11
5

A wide-open group from the start, that saw the 2 top seeds both fail to even advance to Round 2. Halfway through the group,four teams were separated at the top by just 4 points. This did not include one of the favourites Slovenia, who had turned in a dismal qualifying campaign to that point with 4 losses in 5 games.

The end of September 2013's games finally led to some separation, as a win over Norway and draw with Iceland put Switzerland 5 points clear of second with 2 games to go. Separated by just 2 points though, Iceland, Slovenia and Norway could all attain second in the group. A victory over Albania sent Switzerland to Brazil, and a blowout loss to Slovenia eliminated Norway.

Slovenia's loss on the final day clinched second for Iceland, who impressed nonetheless by earning a draw in Oslo on their final day. Iceland, who have never qualified for the World Cup or Euro Championship entered qualifying as the worst seed in the group, ranked 121st in the world. Their impressive run saw them ranked 46th after the Norway draw.

Full Results

Albania/Cyprus (3-1, 0-0)
Albania/Iceland (1-2, 1-2)
Albania/Norway (1-0, 1-1)
Albania/Slovenia (1-0, 0-1)
Albania/Switzerland (0-2, 1-2)
Cyprus/Iceland (1-0, 0-2)
Cyprus/Norway (1-3, 0-2
Cyprus/Slovenia (1-2, 0-2)
Cyprus/Switzerland (0-0, 0-1)
Iceland/Norway (2-0, 1-1)
Iceland/Slovenia (2-1, 2-4)
Iceland/Switzerland (0-2, 4-4)
Norway/Slovenia (2-1, 0-3)
Norway/Switzerland (1-1, 0-2)
Slovenia/Switzerland (0-2, 0-1)

Group 6


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Russia
7
2
1
20
5
15
22
Portugal
6
1
3
20
9
11
21
Israel
3
2
5
19
14
5
14
Azerbaijan
1
3
6
7
11
-4
9
Northern Ireland
1
5
4
9
17
-8
7
Luxembourg
1
6
3
7
26
-19
6

The second most anticipated pairing of this stage (see Group 9) saw 2018 host Russia drawn against Portugal and global star Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite a valiant effort by Israel to contend, this group was always a matter of what order Russia and Portugal were able to finish in. As anticipated, both teams entered their first leg against each other with perfect 2-0-0 records. It was a perfect start for Russia, who scored in the opening minutes off a strike from Alexander Kerzhakov. They were then able to hang on to the 1-0 victory, despite Portugal holding two-thirds of the possession and forcing Russian keeper Igor Akinfeev in to making 7 saves.

Some of the lustre of the group disappeared after, as Portugal tied their next two games against Northern Ireland and Israel, both times notching the equalizing goals late. But Russia managed to falter too, dropping the return leg against Portugal, and then falling to Northern Ireland in a game postponed 5 months from March to August 2013 due to snow accumulation on the pitch in Belfast.

The postponement and the losses briefly gave Portugal the group lead with Russia having games in hand though. The teams finally caught up in games with 2 to play each and Russia holding a 1 point edge on Portugal. A late goal from Eden Ben Basat continued Israel's spoiler role as they tied Portugal for a second time, and allowed Russia to take the group with a last-day draw with Azerbaijan.

For Ronaldo, it was a very quiet round, the exception being their road victory over Northern Ireland. Trailing 2-1 in the second half, Ronaldo put the game on his shoulders, notching a hat trick in 15 minutes. A loss in this game would have put Portugal in danger of falling to third place.

Full Results

Azerbaijan/Israel (1-1, 1-1)
Azerbaijan/Luxembourg (0-0, 1-1)
Azerbaijan/N. Ireland (1-1, 2-0)
Azerbaijan/Portugal (0-3, 0-2)
Azerbaijan/Russia (0-1, 1-1)
Israel/Luxembourg (6-0, 3-0)
Israel/N. Ireland (2-0, 1-1)
Israel/Portugal (3-3, 1-1)
Israel/Russia (0-4, 1-3)
Luxembourg/N. Ireland (1-1, 3-2)
Luxembourg/Portugal (1-2, 0-3)
Luxembourg/Russia (1-4, 0-4)
N. Ireland/Portugal (1-1, 2-4)
N. Ireland/Russia (0-2, 1-0)
Portugal/Russia (0-1, 1-0)

Group 7


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8
1
1
30
6
24
25
Greece
8
1
1
12
4
8
25
Slovakia
3
3
4
11
10
1
13
Lithuania
3
5
2
9
11
-2
11
Latvia
2
6
2
10
20
-10
8
Liechtenstein
0
8
2
4
25
-21
2

Not the most exciting group in terms of star power or style of play but the group did feature a pair of 2010 Cup teams in Greece and Slovakia, and one of the top upcoming teams Bosnia, who missed out on 2010 and Euro 2012 by just one game. As expected, those 3 teams established themselves as the class of the group, each with 7 points after 3 games, including a scoreless draw between Bosnia and Greece.

Slovakia was the first team to fail, losing 1-0 to Greece and drawing their next 2 against weaker competition, leaving it a battle between Greece and Bosnia. The second meeting between the two was  a total contrast from their first matchup, as Bosnia scored early and never relinquished control en route to a 3-1 victory. Bosnia dropped a game to Slovakia late in qualifying but otherwise both teams won out and finished tied on 25 points.

This would always favour Bosnia though with goal differential as the tiebreaker. Greece simply did not (and does not; more on that in group previews) have the scoring power to match the likes of Edin Dzeko and co. for Bosnia. Dzeko alone scored just 2 goals less than Greece in the round, and 3 other Bosnians found the back of the net at least 3 times.

Full Results

Bosnia/Greece (0-0, 3-1)
Bosnia/Latvia (4-1, 5-0)
Bosnia/Liechtenstein (8-1, 4-1)
Bosnia/Lithuania (3-0, 1-0)
Bosnia/Slovakia (0-1, 2-1)
Greece/Latvia (2-1, 1-0)
Greece/Liechtenstein (1-0, 2-0)
Greece/Lithuania (2-0, 1-0)
Greece/Slovakia (1-0, 1-0)
Latvia/Liechtenstein (2-0, 1-1)
Latvia/Lithuania (2-1, 0-2)
Latvia/Slovakia (1-2, 2-2)
Liechtenstein/Lithuania (0-2, 0-2)
Liechtenstein/Slovakia (0-2, 1-1)
Lithuania/Slovakia (1-1, 1-1)

Group 8


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
England
6
0
4
31
4
27
22
Ukraine
6
1
3
28
4
24
21
Montenegro
4
3
3
18
17
1
15
Poland
3
3
4
18
12
6
13
Moldova
3
5
2
12
17
-5
11
San Marino
0
10
0
1
54
-53
0

Similar to Group 5, this one was all over the map until the very end. Unlike Group 5, there was a clear favourite in this one. England turned in a very unconvincing campaign that saw them somewhat fortunate to qualify directly without a playoff.

After 6 games, it was Montenegro on top with 14 points and England trailing with 12. Montenegro had been grouped with England for Euro 2012 qualifying and gave them problems there as well. Poland and Ukraine were trailing, both having stumbled out of the gate. It was at this point that the wheels began falling off for Montenegro, who could only manage a tie against Poland before losing 4-1 to England on the second last day.

England was finally clear of Montenegro but still had to worry about a resurgent Ukraine team. After failing to win in their first 3 group games, Ukraine took 16 of 18 points from their next 6 games to vault to 2nd place in the group. The only mistake in that run was a 0-0 draw to England which would prove costly. Unable to control their own destiny, they saw England finish with a 2-0 defeat of Poland, leaving Ukraine 1 point behind in second.

Full Results

England/Moldova (5-0, 4-0)
England/Montenegro (1-1, 4-1)
England/Poland (1-1, 2-0)
England/San Marino (5-0, 8-0)
England/Ukraine (1-1, 0-0)
Moldova/Montenegro (0-1, 5-2)
Moldova/Poland (0-2, 1-1)
Moldova/San Marino (2-0, 3-0)
Moldova/Ukraine (0-0, 1-2
Montenegro/Poland (2-2, 1-1)
Montenegro/San Marino (6-0, 3-0)
Montenegro/Ukraine (1-0, 0-4)
Poland/San Marino (5-0, 5-1)
Poland/Ukraine (1-3, 0-1)
San Marino/Ukraine (0-9, 0-8)

Group 9

Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Spain
6
0
2
14
3
11
20
France
5
1
2
15
6
9
17
Finland
2
3
3
5
9
-4
9
Georgia
1
5
2
3
10
-7
5
Belarus
1
6
1
7
16
-9
4

The marquee matchup in all of qualifying, regardless of continent or stage. A poor string of results in the lead up to the draw had dropped France to 10th ranked on the continent, and out of the first pot of teams. As soon as the pots were announced, France became the team every top team in Europe wanted to avoid. At the draw, Groups 8 and 9 were the only ones left to draw from Pot 2, leaving France paired with either England or France. Montenegro was drawn for Group 8, leaving France in a group with defending World champion and neighbour Spain.

This was expected to be and was a two-horse race. Both teams did falter along the way though, with Spain surrendering a late goal at home to Finland for a 1-1 draw. France returned the favour later in qualifying, with a scoreless draw at Georgia. The group was determined by the two head-to-head matches between the teams. The beginning of the first leg was all Spain, who got on the scoreboard with a Sergio Ramos goal and came close again but Cesc Fabregas had a penalty kick saved. Spain surprisingly started losing control of the game, continually sending wayward passes and losing possession. At the end of injury time, Olivier Giroud managed to get his head to a Franck Ribery cross to tie the game. The whistle blew immediately after the ensuing kickoff.

France held a 2-point group lead entering the second leg, and despite getting the better of the scoring chances, it was Pedro who snuck the ball past France's Hugo Lloris early in the second half that made the difference. Pedro's goal gave Spain a 1-0 victory and restored their group lead which they never abandoned.

Full Results

Belarus/Finland (0-1, 1-1)
Belarus/France (1-3, 2-4)
Belarus/Georgia (0-1, 2-0)
Belarus/Spain (0-4, 1-2)
Finland/France (0-1, 0-3)
Finland/Georgia (1-1, 1-0)
Finland/Spain (1-1, 0-2)
France/Georgia (3-1, 0-0)
France/Spain (1-1, 0-1)
Georgia/Spain (0-1, 0-2)

Second-Place Ranking

As explained above, the worst second-place team would not advance to Round 2. Because Group 9 has fewer teams then the rest, results against sixth-placed teams in Groups 1-8 were discarded. The below table reflects the amended standings.


Team
W
L
T
GF
GA
+/-
Points
Greece
6
1
1
9
4
5
19
France
5
1
2
15
6
9
17
Portugal
4
1
3
15
8
7
15
Ukraine
4
1
3
11
4
7
15
Sweden
4
2
2
15
13
2
14
Iceland
4
2
2
15
14
1
14
Romania
4
3
1
11
12
-1
13
Croatia
3
3
2
9
8
1
11
Denmark
2
2
4
9
11
-2
10

Unsurprisingly, Denmark out of Group 2 is the odd man out and does not advance to Round 2. With the fewest points of any second-place finisher before the calculation was done, it was always grim for Denmark. Taking their Malta results away took 6 points and +7 in goal differential away from them, and only Croatia was close to them for last.

Excluding France which kept their exact record, Iceland is the only team that did not lose 6 points in the calculation. Their Cyprus results got thrown out which actually helped them as they were able to remove a 1-0 loss from their record.

ROUND 2 (November 2013)

The 8 teams that advanced from Round 1 were re-seeded based on the October 2013 FIFA World Rankings. The top 4 teams (Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Ukraine) were placed in Pot 1 and were drawn against one of the remaining opponents for a 2-leg aggregate playoff. Playoff winners qualified for the World Cup

Pairings

Portugal 4-2 Sweden (1-0, 3-2)

The pairing otherwise known as the Cristian Ronaldo Show. The first game in Lisbon was a slugfest with neither side able to break through until the end when Ronaldo was able to head a goal in the 82nd minute and give Portugal a 1-0 lead going to the second leg. Ronaldo's goal to open the 2nd half in Sweden gave Portugal a 2-0 aggregate lead and they looked to be clear to Brazil. Sweden's own star Zlatan Ibrahimovic wasn't ready to be knocked out yet though. A header in the 68th minute, followed minutes later by a driven free kick gave Ibrahimovic his 7th and 8th goals of qualifying and tied the playoff at 2-2, but with Portugal holding the away goal tiebreaker. Ibra's heroics were not enough though, as not to be outdone, Ronaldo picked up his hat trick in a 3-minute span, to give Portugal the win in the game and send them to the World Cup. The second half of the second leg was in my opinion the highlight of qualifying, watching 2 of the best players in the world score 4 times in 11 minutes.

Ukraine 2-3 France (2-0, 0-3)

It was a sluggish start in Kiev for leg 1, as neither team could get a foothold in the game. Roman Zozulya broke the deadlock in the 62nd, giving Ukraine a 1-0 lead, which doubled off of a late penalty from Andriy Yarmolenko. France's performance was widely panned and given the momentum both teams had taken in to leg 1, it looked a certainty that France would be at home for the World Cup. A different French team showed up in Paris. With 5 new starters in the lineup, France exploded out of the gate, overwhelming the Ukrainian defence. By halftime, the aggregate score was 2-2, a problem compounded by a red card to Ukraine at the start of the second half. Ukraine held on as long as possible but the inevitable 3rd goal came with 20 minutes remaining from Mamadou Sakho. Unable to surrender an away goal to Ukraine, France survived a determined attack despite the man disadvantage and secured an improbable berth in Brazil.

Greece 4-2 Romania (3-1, 1-1)

The least compelling of the playoffs, Greece jumped out to a 2-1 lead in the first leg. A second-half goal from Dimitris Salpingidis and a Kostas Mitroglou goal to open the second leg gave Greece an insurmountable lead and sent them through to Brazil with ease.

Croatia 2-0 Iceland (0-0, 2-0)

The Cinderella team of European qualifying, Iceland continued their impressive run, holding on to a scoreless draw in leg 1 despite playing almost the entire second half down a man. The run came to an end in leg 2 in Zagreb though. Mario Mandzukic broke the deadlock in the 27th minute, but his sending off before halftime gave Iceland hope of advancing as a 1-1 draw would be enough to send them through. Those hopes died quickly. Just after halftime, Darijo Srna found himself free in the penalty area and struck the ball home for a 2-0 lead. Iceland was never able to seriously threaten after that, ending their bid to become the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup.

Qualifiers


Belgium: 12th Finals Appearance (Last appearance in 2002). Fourth Place Finish in 1986. Reached the Round of 16 four other times from 1982-2002. World Ranking: 12th
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Finals Appearance (Previously appeared as Yugoslavia, but those results are attributed to Serbia). Lost in a playoff to Portugal in 2010 qualifying. World Ranking: 25th
Croatia: 4th Finals Appearance (Last appearance in 2006; See above note re: Yugoslavia). Third Place in 1998, Group Stage in '02 and '06. World Ranking: 20th
England: 14th Finals Appearance (5th consecutive). Champions in 1966, Fourth Place in 1990. Six other quarterfinal appearances. World Ranking: 11th
France: 14th Finals Appearance (5th consecutive). Champions in 1998. Runners-up in 2006. Third Place in '58 and '86. Fourth Place in '82. World Ranking: 16th
Germany: 18th Finals Appearance (16th consecutive; Includes West Germany results). Champions in '54, '74 and '90. Runners-up in '66, '82, '86 and '02. 5 other semifinal appearances, including '06 and '10. World Ranking: 2nd
Greece: 3rd Finals Appearance (2nd consecutive). Have never advanced past Group Stage. World Ranking: 10th
Italy: 18th Finals Appearance (14th consecutive). Champions in '34, '38, '82 and '06. Runners-up in '70 and '94. 2 other semifinal appearances in '78 and '90. World Ranking: 9th
Netherlands: 10th Finals Appearance (3rd consecutive). Runners-up in '74, '78 and '10. Fourth Place in '98. Regarded as best team to never win a World Cup. World Ranking: 15th
Portugal: 6th Finals Appearance (4th consecutive). Third Place in 1966. Fourth Place in 2006. Round of 16 in 2010. World Ranking: 3rd
Russia: 10th Finals Appearance (Last appearance in 2002; Includes Soviet Union results). 4 consecutive quarterfinals, including a Fourth Place finish from 1958-1970. 2 other Round of 16 appearances in '82 and '86. World Ranking: 18th
Spain: 14th Finals Appearance (10th consecutive). Defending Champion from 2010. Fourth Place in 1950. 4 other Quarterfinal appearances, the last in 2002. World Ranking: 1st
Switzerland: 10th Finals Appearance (3rd consecutive). 3 Quarterfinal appearances from 1934-1954. Round of 16 in 1994. World Ranking: 8th

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Europe Qualifying Structure

EUROPE (UEFA) QUALIFYING

Teams Participating: 53
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 13
2010 Finals Participants:

Denmark (3rd Group E, 1-2-0, 3 GF, 6 GA)
England (Round of 16 (2nd Group C), 1-1-2, 3 GF, 5 GA)
France (4
th Group A, 0-2-1, 1 GF, 4 GA)
Germany (3rd Place (1st Group D), 5-2-0, 16 GF, 5 GA)
Greece (3rd Group B, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 5 GA)
Italy (4
th Group F, 0-1-2, 4 GF, 5 GA)
Netherlands (2nd Place (1st Group E), 6-1-0, 12 GF, 6 GA)
Portugal (Round of 16 (2nd Group G), 1-1-2, 7 GF, 1 GA)
Serbia (4
th Group D, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 3 GA)
Slovakia (Round of 16 (2nd Group F), 1-2-1, 5 GF, 7 GA)
Slovenia (3rd Group C, 1-1-1, 3 GF, 3 GA)
Spain (Champion (1s
t Group H), 6-1-0, 8 GF, 2 GA)
Switzerland (3rd Group H, 1-1-1, 1 GF, 1 GA)

Looking Back at 2010

Europe is largely considered
to be the crown jewel of world football, providing the best competition and 2010 was no different. UEFA is the largest confederation with 53 members, and the calibre is reflected in the spot allocation for UEFA. 13 of 32 World Cup spots, almost half of the entire finals field is European. That calibre was also reflected on the podium in 2010, as the top 3 teams all came from Europe.

Because of
the high calibre of football, Europe is a continent which always features some surprises regarding which teams were excluded. Ireland, Russia, Sweden, Czech Republic, Turkey, Croatia and Norway were just some of the names of teams that failed to qualify in 2010, a testament to the true strength of UEFA.

The thing mos
t will remember about 2010 European qualifying came from the playoff round and it was the epic playoff matchup between France and Ireland. After dropping the first leg to France 1-0 at home, Ireland had to beat France on the road to have a shot at qualifying. A 1-0 score at the end of regulation sent the game to extra time. In extra time a blatant hand ball by French forward Thierry Henry went unseen by the referee and let to a French goal, which would seal their place in the tournament. Fans went as far as petitioning FIFA to allow Ireland a spot in South Africa but it was to no avail. This goal is one of the driving forces behind the push for goal line referees in international competition.

Structure for 2014

The qualifying structure is
the exact same for 2014 as it was for 2010. The teams were seeded and drawn in to 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin with the group winners automatically qualifying for the World Cup. The 8 best 2nd-place finishers will advance to Round 2 and play a 2-leg playoff against one of the other opponents. The winners of those 4 2-leg playoffs will also qualify for the World Cup.

Because
the 2nd-place finisher from the 5-team group will have played two fewer games then the others, results against 6th-place teams in the other 8 groups will be discounted in determining the best 2nd-place teams. That way, all 2nd-place teams are being judged by their performance against the top 5 in their respective groups.

The Seeding

Teams were seeded based on
their world ranking at the time of the preliminary draw. They were separated in to 6 pots based on their seeding, with only 1 team per pot in any given group. The seeding was as follows:

Po
t A:

1. Spain
2. Ne
therlands
3. Germany
4. England
5. Por
tugal
6. Italy
7. Croatia
8. Norway
9. Greece

Po
t B:

10. France
11. Mon
tenegro
12. Russia
13. Sweden
14. Denmark
15. Slovenia
16. Turkey
17. Serbia
18. Slovakia

Po
t C:

19. Swi
tzerland
20. Israel
21. Ireland
22. Belgium
23. Czech Republic
24. Bosnia and Herzegovina
25. Belarus
26. Ukraine
27. Hungary

Po
t D:

28. Bulgaria
29. Romania
30. Georgia
31. Li
thuania
32. Albania
33. Sco
tland
34. Northern Ireland
35. Austria
36. Poland

Po
t E:

37. Armenia
38. Finland
39. Es
tonia
40. Cyprus
41. La
tvia
42. Moldova
43. Macedonia
44. Azerbaijan
45. Faroe Islands

Po
t F:

46. Wales
47. Liech
tenstein
48. Iceland
49. Kazakhs
tan
50. Luxembourg
51. Mal
ta
52. Andorra
53. San Marino

Round 1

Round 1 fea
tures 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Games will be played from August 2012 through October 2013. All teams will participate. The groups are as follows:

Group 1



Analysis: First thing that jumps out about this group is that there are some very interesting regional matchups in the British Isles (Scotland, Wales) and in the Balkans (Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia). This group should be open for the taking; Croatia is the top seed but is one of two teams from Pot A that was not a 2010 Finals participant. The only member of this group that was in South Africa is Serbia, and those two countries are the likely favourites to finish in the top 2. Don't sleep on Belgium or Scotland though particularly Belgium. Both have had a tough go of it in the past decade but have the talent to play with some of the top teams in Europe. This is a fairly soft group and any one of those teams could pull a surprise.

Prediction: I like Serbia
to win the group. I don't know if they're necessarily more talented then Croatia are but they're more cohesive as a team and have that experience of being in the last World Cup. A raucous home crowd doesn't hurt them either (except when they force matches to be abandoned resulting in a Serbia loss like happened in Euro 2012 qualifying). Second-place should go to Croatia. I don't know if Belgium or Scotland (or anyone else for that matter) will be able to grab enough points to unseat them.

Group 2



Analysis: The first of several groups featuring a pair of 2010 Finals participants. Barring an upset, either Italy or Denmark should take this group and secure another Finals berth. On paper, Italy would be favoured but Denmark has continually overachieved in these qualifying campaigns and will pose a challenge for Italy (they topped favoured Portugal in Group 1 in 2010 qualifying). Also in the mix for the top two spots will be Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Bulgaria has fallen on some hard times and could struggle but the Czechs were not so long ago a major force in European football. At the top of their game, they can defeat anyone in this group.

Prediction: I like Denmark but Italy is in a rhythm right now. They've lost just 1 game in the past year and just defeated world champion Spain in a friendly. If they can continue that roll, they'll be tough to top in the group. It will be a battle for 2nd place, fought primarily between Denmark and Czech Republic. They played last November resulting in a scoreless draw so there isn't much between the two teams. Bulgaria might try and sneak in the mix if possible as well, but I'll stick with Denmark in 2nd for now.

Group 3



Analysis: There were three teams in Pot A that no one wanted to draw in qualifying. Germany is the first. Germany has been nearly unstoppable in the past decade and have been cleaning up in their qualifying groups. This will be no exception, they will take 1st in this group. The real battle will be for second place and Sweden and Ireland look like the prime candidates to challenge for it. In any other group, both would be contenders for the top spot and their games against each other will be crucial in deciding who can grab the playoff spot in this group.

Prediction: Germany in 1st is a given. I'm torn on second place though. At their best, I think Sweden is a better team, but I think Ireland is more consistent from game to game. I'm trusting that Sweden will have a strong qualifying run and will take second by the narrowest of margins.

Group 4



Analysis: The second member of that trio is Netherlands who were perfect in 2010 qualifying, and have also been perfect in Euro 2012 qualifying. They will not be challenged for first place in this group. There's a massive drop in talent behind Netherlands, as this is probably the weakest qualifying group in Europe this campaign. Turkey checks in at an overrated 24th in the world, and then you go all the way down to 47th in the world to find Hungary, barely ahead of Romania. If either Hungary or Romania step up they can challenge Turkey for second place but this is a very poor group from Turkey on downward.

Prediction: Netherlands and Turkey in that order. Should be a sizeable gap between 2nd and 3rd place.

Group 5



Analysis: If you've read all my previews, you know I'm a fan of groups where there will be competition instead of a dominant team. This is that kind of group. It features two teams from 2010 Finals (Slovenia, Switzerland), neither of which is the top seed in the group (Norway). What's likely to result is a 3-way battle for 1 automatic spot and 1 playoff spot and I'm looking forward to it. Albania might be able to put up enough fight to stay in contention but keep an eye on those three teams during qualifying, as they're the ones that will be there until the end.

Prediction: Momentum is important in soccer and the team with the least momentum in my opinion is Slovenia. I think if any team is going to fall off, it will be them leaving Switzerland and Norway at the top, I believe in that order. Make no mistake though, this group will be a dogfight, and probably the last one to be settled.

Group 6



Analysis: Portugal or Russia, who do you like to win it? That's essentially what Group 6 boils down to. Israel and Northern Ireland are the 3rd and 4th seeds in the group but neither will really be able to contend with the two top dogs in the group.

Prediction: Hard to predict the order in which Russia and Portugal will finish in because both teams are known to take games off. If one team can show up in both games between the two, they'll take the group, with the other finishing second. My guess; Russia 1st, Portugal 2nd. Don't be surprised to see a younger Russian squad through qualifying. They'll be wanting to gain experience ahead of 2018 when they'll be hosting the World Cup.

Group 7



Analysis: Forget about the L's in this group, this is going to be a battle of 3 teams with Greece, Slovakia and Bosnia/Herzegovina. Slovakia and Bosnia are two teams on the upswing, Slovakia having appeared at the 2010 Finals and Bosnia coming surprisingly close to qualifying, only to be thwarted in a playoff with Portugal. Greece is the top seed and no team in the world perhaps has overachieved as much as Greece has in the past decade. No matter what team they put on the field, opponents have to be wary as Greece has consistently won games when people counted them out.

Prediction: I'm admittedly surprised at how well Greece does because frankly I don't their team is actually that good. I've learned not to bet against them however and I expect them to win this group. Slovakia and Bosnia should be fighting tooth and nail for the playoff spot but I think Slovakia has a bit more big game experience then Bosnia and I think they'll grab second by a very slight margin.

Group 8



Analysis: About as good a draw as England could have hoped for. They're far and away the top team in the group but have a habit of making things difficult on themselves in qualifying. The other 3 teams in contention for the top 2 are Ukraine and Poland (co-hosts of Euro 2012) and Montenegro, the surprise 2nd seed in this group who are currently tied with England in their Euro qualifying group.

Prediction: England won't be perfect but they'll grab enough points and benefit from the Montenegro/Poland/Ukraine matchups splitting points amongst themselves to win the group. I like Ukraine in 2nd, they're underrated in the 3rd pot in my opinion and should be able to knock off Montenegro and Poland for 2nd place. England in 1st and Ukraine in 2nd would be the same result as their 2010 qualifying group. Ukraine went on to lose to Greece in a playoff that campaign.

Group 9



Analysis: Oddly enough, the third member of that trio of teams I mentioned everyone wanted to avoid from Pot A, was drawn with the team from Pot B everyone wanted to avoid. If you only watch 2 games of the 800+ in qualifying, make it the 2 games between Spain and France. Spain is the defending World and European champion, and were unfortunate enough to draw France, one of the best teams in the world who only fell to Pot B because of a string of poor results in 2010. Those poor results are behind them and this will be a war for first-place in this group. Also feel free to pity Belarus, Finland and Georgia. They could not hand-pick a worse draw for themselves.

Prediction: Spain is a slightly better team then France, even when they're at their best. Spain should win, with France second, but it will be really fun to watch them go at it twice in qualifying.

Summary

One thing I need to stress about my predictions is that games will not start until over a year from now, once Euro 2012 has finished. A lot of things can and will happen between now and then. Great storylines will emerge as qualifying happens so make sure to stay tuned to UEFA qualifying, both for great football, but also some great excitement.