Qualifying Recap: OCEANIA

Double Post today as I do some catch-up before games start. Injury reports are being built in to team previews which should start Monday. North and South America qualifying recaps tomorrow and Friday at the latest.

RUNDOWN

Teams Entered in Qualfiying: 11
Spots Allocated by FIFA: 0.5
Number of Rounds: 3
Number of Matches Played: 36
Goals Scored: 124
Top Goal-Scorer: 8 Goals; Georges Gope-Fenepej (NCL)

Oceanic Countries Previously in Cup Finals: 1
Most Appearances: New Zealand (2)
Best Finish: Group Stage (New Zealand 1982 and 2010)

INTRODUCTION

The weakest of all 6 confederations associated with the World Cup, Oceania is still trying to recover from Australia jumping to the Asian Confederation prior to 2010 qualifying.

The 11 teams in Oceania qualifying were seeded with the top 7 given byes directly to Round 2, which doubled as the 2012 OFC Nations Cup. The lowest four seeds took part in Round 1, with the group winner advancing to Round 2. Round 2 consisted of 2 groups of 4 teams, with the top 2 teams in each group advancing to Round 3. The group winner from Round 3 advanced to an intercontinental playoff against a North American representative for a chance to qualify.

ROUND 1 (November 2011)

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Samoa	2	0	1	5	3	2	7
Tonga	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
American Samoa	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
Cook Islands	0	2	1	4	6	-2	1

Held as a single round-robin with all games in Samoa, this round was instituted with the hopes of ensuring the best competition from the bottom of the ladder in Oceania would go against the top teams and avoid some of the blowouts that have historically occurred in the region.

American Samoa opened qualifying with a shock 2-1 victory over Tonga. This was American Samoa's first ever victory in a competitive match against a fellow FIFA member. Samoa twice surrendered a lead in their first match but an injury time goal from Albert Bell gave them a victory over Cook Islands in their opener.

A pair of draws in the second games set up an all-or-nothing game between Samoa and American Samoa. Holding the advantage in goals for, Samoa only needed a draw to advance at home to Round 2. A last-second goal by Silao Malo made a tiebreak unnecessary as Samoa won 1-0 and advanced to Round 2 as group winner.

Full Results

American Samoa 2-1 Tonga
Cook Islands 2-3 Samoa
American Samoa 1-1 Cook Islands
Samoa 1-1 Tonga
Tonga 2-1 Cook Islands
Samoa 1-0 American Samoa

ROUND 2 (June 2012)


Round 2 of qualifying occurred at the 2012 OFC Nations Cup, the same tournament that would determine Oceania's representative at the 2013 Confederations Cup. The tournament was held in Solomon Islands and the teams were divided in to groups of 4, playing a single round-robin. The top 2 teams from each group would advance to the semifinals of the tournament. While the semifinals and finals would be played to determine the cup champion, all semifinalists would advance to Round 3 of World Cup qualifying.





Group 1

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Tahiti	3	0	0	18	5	13	9
New Caledonia	2	1	0	17	6	11	6
Vanuatu	1	2	0	8	9	-1	3
Samoa	0	3	0	1	24	-23	0

The OFC's aim of preventing blowouts was ultimately unsuccessful as Samoa gave up 8 goals per game on average in this round. Tahiti and New Caledonia were the clear class in this group, topping third place Vanuatu in their games by 3 goals each and easily securing advancement. This round also introduced the world to the Tehau family, members of which scored 14 of Tahiti's 18 goals this round.

Full Results

Samoa 1-10 Tahiti
Vanuatu 2-5 New Caledonia
Vanuatu 5-0 Samoa
Tahiti 4-3 New Caledonia
New Caledonia 9-0 Samoa
Tahiti 4-1 Vanuatu

Group 2
 

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
New Zealand	2	0	1	4	2	2	7
Solomon Islands	1	0	2	2	1	1	5
Fiji	0	1	2	1	2	-1	2
Papua New Guinea	0	2	1	2	4	-2	1

Story in this group was the manner in which New Zealand struggled against far inferior competition, opening with a pair of 1-goal wins before tying Solomon Islands in the finale. Never a doubt that New Zealand would advance but close to the performance that carried them to South Africa in 2010.

Full Results

Fiji 0-1 New Zealand
Solomon Islands 1-0 Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea 1-2 New Zealand
Fiji 0-0 Solomon Islands
Papua New Guinea 1-1 Fiji
New Zealand 1-1 Solomon Islands
 
While the semifinals and finals aren't relevant to the World Cup, they stunned everyone watching. Tahiti knocked off Solomon Islands 1-0 off another Tehau goal. In the second match, New Zealand's struggles continued, leading to a 60th minute goal for New Caledonia's Bertrand Kai. Despite their efforts to tie, they were unsuccessful, and a second goal in injury time gave New Caledonia the stunning 2-0 victory. Tahiti scored early in the final and held on to beat New Caledonia 1-0 in the final, sending Tahiti as the surprise representative to the Confederations Cup last year.

ROUND 3 (September 2012-March 2013)


Round 3 consisted of the 2012 Nations Cup semifinalists. All 4 teams were in 1 group playing a double round-robin. The group winner would advance to an intercontinental playoff against North America.

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
New Zealand	6	0	0	17	2	15	18
New Caledonia	4	2	0	17	6	11	12
Tahiti	1	5	0	2	12	-10	3
Solomon Islands	1	5	0	5	21	-16	3

Whatever was wrong with New Zealand in Round 2 got fixed awfully quick in the 3 months between rounds. New Zealand breezed thru the round, surrendering only 2 goals in the process, and regaining the form people expected from them in Round 2. On the back of their Nations Cup success, people expected Tahiti to contend for second place in the group at least. Their scoring touch was lost though as they failed to score in 5 of their 6 games, including the first 4 games.

Despite dropping the opener to New Zealand, New Caledonia won their next 3, and entered their return match against New Zealand down just 3 points. Able to survive with a draw, New Caledonia knew they would likely have to grab a win in Dunedin, New Zealand. Down 1-0 at halftime, Cesar Lolohea was able to find the back of the net in the second half to tie the game at 1. Just when it appeared New Caledonia would remain alive in qualifying, Tommy Smith scored deep in injury time for New Zealand, handing them the win and the group.

Full Results

Solomon Islands 2-0 Tahiti
New Caledonia 0-2 New Zealand
New Zealand 6-1 Solomon Islands
Tahiti 0-4 New Caledonia
Solomon Islands 2-6 New Caledonia
Tahiti 0-2 New Zealand
New Zealand 3-0 Tahiti
New Caledonia 5-0 Solomon Islands
New Zealand 2-1 New Caledonia
Tahiti 2-0 Solomon Islands
Solomon Islands 0-2 New Zealand
New Caledonia 1-0 Tahiti

Will recap New Zealand's intercontinental playoff tomorrow when I do the North America recap.

Matchday: November 26, 2011

Round 1 for Oceania ends tonight and it's down to 1 game. Samoa and American Samoa play at 10:30 pm and one of them will advance to Round 2. If Samoa wins or the game ends in a draw, Samoa will advance. If American Samoa wins, they're through to Round 2.

Schedule:

Cook Islands 1-2 Tonga
American Samoa 0-1 Samoa

Matchday: November 24, 2011

2 more games on the 24th as Samoa looks to follow up their win with a victory over Tonga while American Samoa is searching for their second ever victory as they face Cook Islands. Group can't be decided on this day but both Tonga and Cook Islands will be eliminated in the event that to do not win their respective games. Schedule below:

All games Eastern Standard Time (UTC -5)

Games:

Cook Islands 1-1 American Samoa
Tonga 1-1 Samoa

Scenarios:

Cook Islands has been eliminated.
Tonga has been eliminated.

Matchday: November 22, 2011

Sorry for lack of posting. Started a new job so blog going to take a hit. Happily it coincides with a huge gap in action. I'll still have regular posts although not as frequently as I have been.

Anyways, November isn't over yet as Oceania Round 1 will take place from November 22-26. It is a 4-team single round robin played entirely in Samoa with the group winner advancing to Round 2. Games on the 22nd are as follows:

Games are listed as Eastern Standard Time (UTC -5).

Results:

Tonga 1-2 American Samoa*
Samoa 3-2 Cook Islands

*-First ever victory in a FIFA-sanctioned 'A' level international match (31 games played).

Oceania Round 1 Primer

World Ranking

American Samoa-t-203rd, t-10th Oceania
Cook Islands-196th, 8th Oceania
Samoa-t-203rd, t-10th Oceania
Tonga-201st, 9th Oceania

Schedule

November 22, 2011

• Tonga vs. American Samoa
• Samoa vs. Cook Islands

November 24, 2011

• Cook Islands vs. American Samoa
• Tonga vs. Samoa

November 26, 2011

• American Samoa vs. Samoa
• Cook Islands vs. Tonga

Past International Records

American Samoa

• 2011 to date: 0-4-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-4-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-15-0
  

Cook Islands

• 2011 to date: 0-3-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-3-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 6-3-3

Samoa

• 2011 to date: 0-2-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-2-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 12-4-2

Tonga

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-3-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 10-6-3
  

Team Glimpses

American Samoa

I tend to use hyperbole a lot but I think I'm well within my rights in saying that they are the worst national team in the world, period. Forget the 0-15 record against group opponents lifetime, American Samoa are still searching for their first win against anyone. EVER. In 30 games in their history, they have 30 losses and have given up 229 goals in the process, good for nearly an 8 goals allowed per game average. Preliminary rounds exist in Oceania qualifying because of a 31-0 win Australia posted over American Samoa 10 years ago in a 2002 World Cup Qualifier. I could go on but I think the point is clear.In the worst confederation in the world, American Samoa find themselves squarely at the bottom of the ladder.

Cook Islands

Bombed out of the recent 2011 South Pacific Games, overwhelmed by the upper echelon of OFC members. Before those games in September, you must go back to June 2009 to when they last played, picking up a win and a draw over Tonga. Not an elite team by any stretch but they can hold their own against the calibre of opponent they'll face in this group. Holds a .500 or better record against every other member of the group.

Samoa

Tied at the bottom of the FIFA ranking after having played just 2 games in the past 4 years, both of them losses to Fiji. Samoa is better than their ranking, but with so little information regarding their current form, it is unknown just how much better they can be. Last major competition was in 2010 qualifying where they matched a pair of losses to Vanuatu and Solomon Islands with a pair of wins over groupmates American Samoa and Tonga. Samoa has the benefit of being the host nation for Round 1, a factor that should play to their advantage in this group.

Tonga

Like Samoa, have played just two games since last qualifying campaign, winning neither. American Samoa was their lone win in 2010 qualifying but by the slimmest margin of any other team in that group. Not that it necessarily means anything when you only win 4-0, but Tonga does not have the strongest record against either Samoa or Cook Islands and appears to be the clear-cut 3rd place team in the group.

November Games:

*-Round 1 follows a single round-robin format at a central location in Samoa. All games will be played in Apia, Samoa.

Game 1
Tonga vs. American Samoa
November 22, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

Game 2
Samoa vs. Cook Islands
November 22, 2011
Time: 8:30 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

Game 3
Cook Islands vs. American Samoa
November 24, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

Game 4
Tonga vs. Samoa
November 24, 2011
Time: 8:30 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

Game 5
American Samoa vs. Samoa
November 26, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

Game 6
Cook Islands vs. Tonga
November 26, 2011
Time: 8:30 pm EST
Location: Toleafoa J.S. Blatter Complex, Apia, Samoa

It's a 4-team group and while I won't yet discount Tonga, I would wager that the winner of the Samoa-Cook Islands game on Day 1 will go on to win the group. They have the two best records against the rest of the group, and Samoa also carries home field advantage.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Samoa-9 pts
x-Cook Islands-6 pts
x-Tonga-3 pts
x-American Samoa-0 pts

Entirely guesswork with the exception of the American Samoa games who I'm confident will lose every one. Samoa and Cook Islands are historically better then Tonga but playing so few games recently makes it impossible to gauge who is better right now. Gave the group to Samoa in large part because they host the round, but any of the top three teams could realistically win the group. Winner of the group will advance to Group 1 of the 2012 OFC Nations Cup to join New Caledonia, Tahiti and Vanuatu. The Nations Cup will double as Round 2 of OFC qualifying.

Oceania Qualifying Update-August 16, 2011

Dates have been confirmed for the OFC Nations Cup which also doubles as Rounds 1 and 2 of Oceania qualifying:

Round 1-November 22-26, 2011 in Samoa

Round 2-June 3-7, 2012 in Fiji

Full breakdown of Oceania qualifying can be found here.

Oceania Qualifying Structure

OCEANIA (OFC) QUALIFYING

Teams Participating: 11
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 0.5
2010 Finals Participants: New Zealand (3rd Group F, 0-0-3, 2 GF, 2GA)

Looking back at 2010

2010 was the first tournament in which Australia, far and away the class of the Oceania Football Confederation would compete in the Asian Zone. A weak zone to begin with, Oceania was and remains now the weakest confederation in world football. Only New Zealand is ranked in the top 100 in the world, and no other team is in the top 150 in the world.

Because of New Zealand's relative dominance over the rest of Oceania, they were given a bye to Round 2 in 2010, with all other teams taking part in Round 1, the football tournament at the 2007 South Pacific Games. The medallists from that tournament would advance to join New Zealand in Round 2, and they were Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Zealand would go on to coast through Round 2 and was able to defeat Bahrain in an inter-confederation playoff to gain the lone spot for Oceania in the 2010 World Cup.

Structure for 2014

The OFC's qualifying for 2014 has undergone some major changes from 2010. In a nutshell, qualification is longer and gone are the South Pacific Games as part of qualifying. The South Pacific Games were originally intended to be involved however FIFA refused to allow the OFC to use those Games for qualifying as Guam (a member of the Asian Football Confederation) would be participating. Having the results of the Oceania Zone impacted by a non-OFC member would be unfair as ruled by FIFA, so that was a no-go.

The OFC has instead opted for a 3-round qualifying tournament, with the eventual winner advancing to an inter-confederational playoff against the 4th-placed team from the North American zone to see who will qualify for the finals in Brazil.

The 11 teams were ranked prior to the preliminary draw based on the current FIFA World Ranking and what were deemed as "sporting considerations". FIFA hasn't been clear what those "sporting considerations" are but read that as the teams at the bottom don't stand a chance of competing with New Zealand and the other top OFC teams, regardless of ranking.

The bottom 4 teams will compete in Round 1, scheduled to be contested in November 2011. They will play a single round-robin tournament at a central location, anticipated to be in Samoa. The group winner will advance to Round 2 while the others will be eliminated.

The Round 1 Winner and the top 7 teams in the OFC's seeding will contest Round 2, which will double as the 2012 OFC Nations Cup. The 8 teams will be divided in to 2 groups of 4, playing a single round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing to the semifinals. The semifinals, and finals are relevant as to who the 2012 OFC Nations Cup champion is, as well as which OFC team will participate in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup. All the semifinalists will advance to Round 3 though, with the third and fourth-place teams in each group being eliminated. Round 2 will take place in Fiji in June 2012.

The 4 remaining teams will contest Round 3 in a single group, playing a double round-robin to be contested between September 2012 and March 2013. The group winner will advance to the inter-confederational playoff, while the other 3 teams will be eliminated. If the Round 3 Winner is successful in that playoff, they will qualify for the World Cup. If not, the OFC will be the only confederation with no participant in Brazil in 2014.

The Seeding

1. New Zealand
2. Fiji
3. New Caledonia
4. Vanuatu
5. Solomon Islands
6. Tahiti
7. Papua New Guinea
8. Samoa
9. Tonga
10. Cook Islands
11. American Samoa

Round 1



Analysis: Ugh. When the highest ranked team in the group is 189th in the world (out of 208), there isn't much you can say about the group. These teams are the bottom of the worst zone in football. Samoa and American Samoa haven't played since 2007. The only games Cook Islands and Tonga have played since then were a pair of exhibition games against each other in 2009 (1:1 and 2:1 in favour of Cook Islands). This group will be a crapshoot and the winner will be very hard-pressed to make it out of Round 2.

Prediction: Samoa. Advantages have to be had where available and if Samoa does host Round 1 as is anticipated, they will the edge of a home crowd. That may be enough to put them over the top. The results of the 2011 South Pacific Games in a month could provide more insight as to which of these teams have made strides since last qualifying campaign.

Round 2

Group A



Analysis: The easier of the two groups as neither New Zealand or Fiji, the top two teams in the OFC are involved. Should be a three-horse race between New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Tahiti. Both New Caledonia and Vanuatu took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Tahiti finished 3rd in their 2010 Round 1 Group, losing 1-0 to New Caledonia along the way. Tahiti and New Caledonia have played 4 exhibition games since then, each winning twice. New Caledonia took 4 points from Vanuatu in two games in 2010 qualifying, and they've since tied in an exhibition game.

Prediction: New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Caledonia has shown over the past 5 years that they are in contention for the 2nd or 3rd best team in OFC, and should finish atop this group. Vanuatu might have a bit tougher road but they've shown some solid form recently and have been to the final stage of OFC qualifying recently, an advantage not afforded to Tahiti.

Group 2



Analysis: If New Zealand drops a single point, it will be a surprise. They've dominated this continent since Australia left and that shouldn't change. Fiji took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Solomon Islands just missed out on the last round in 2010, dropping their semifinal and bronze medal games at the 2007 South Pacific Games after sweeping through their group. Papua New Guinea has not played in years and is a wildcard at this point, with no one knowing what they'll bring to the table in June 2012.

Prediction: New Zealand and Fiji. The two top-ranked teams in the confederation move on. New Zealand will be fine, Fiji will have to be careful with both Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea though. A loss or tie to either could eliminate them quickly.

SUMMARY

It's a weak zone with one powerhouse and I expect New Zealand to advance and win Round 3 easily. They're fortunate to have drawn CONCACAF as their continental playoff, as that will likely afford them the easiest playoff opponent possible. Provided that opponent isn't USA or Mexico, I feel New Zealand has a decent chance of ending up in the World Cup Finals for a second consecutive time. For the sake of the OFC's organizers, they better hope New Zealand are the champion, Any other team they put up against CONCACAF will get blown out of the water.