OCEANIA (OFC) QUALIFYING
Looking back at 2010
2010 was the first tournament in which Australia, far and away the class of the Oceania Football Confederation would compete in the Asian Zone. A weak zone to begin with, Oceania was and remains now the weakest confederation in world football. Only New Zealand is ranked in the top 100 in the world, and no other team is in the top 150 in the world.
Because of New Zealand's relative dominance over the rest of Oceania, they were given a bye to Round 2 in 2010, with all other teams taking part in Round 1, the football tournament at the 2007 South Pacific Games. The medallists from that tournament would advance to join New Zealand in Round 2, and they were Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Zealand would go on to coast through Round 2 and was able to defeat Bahrain in an inter-confederation playoff to gain the lone spot for Oceania in the 2010 World Cup.
Structure for 2014
The OFC's qualifying for 2014 has undergone some major changes from 2010. In a nutshell, qualification is longer and gone are the South Pacific Games as part of qualifying. The South Pacific Games were originally intended to be involved however FIFA refused to allow the OFC to use those Games for qualifying as Guam (a member of the Asian Football Confederation) would be participating. Having the results of the Oceania Zone impacted by a non-OFC member would be unfair as ruled by FIFA, so that was a no-go.
The OFC has instead opted for a 3-round qualifying tournament, with the eventual winner advancing to an inter-confederational playoff against the 4th-placed team from the North American zone to see who will qualify for the finals in Brazil.
The 11 teams were ranked prior to the preliminary draw based on the current FIFA World Ranking and what were deemed as "sporting considerations". FIFA hasn't been clear what those "sporting considerations" are but read that as the teams at the bottom don't stand a chance of competing with New Zealand and the other top OFC teams, regardless of ranking.
The bottom 4 teams will compete in Round 1, scheduled to be contested in November 2011. They will play a single round-robin tournament at a central location, anticipated to be in Samoa. The group winner will advance to Round 2 while the others will be eliminated.
The Round 1 Winner and the top 7 teams in the OFC's seeding will contest Round 2, which will double as the 2012 OFC Nations Cup. The 8 teams will be divided in to 2 groups of 4, playing a single round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing to the semifinals. The semifinals, and finals are relevant as to who the 2012 OFC Nations Cup champion is, as well as which OFC team will participate in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup. All the semifinalists will advance to Round 3 though, with the third and fourth-place teams in each group being eliminated. Round 2 will take place in Fiji in June 2012.
The 4 remaining teams will contest Round 3 in a single group, playing a double round-robin to be contested between September 2012 and March 2013. The group winner will advance to the inter-confederational playoff, while the other 3 teams will be eliminated. If the Round 3 Winner is successful in that playoff, they will qualify for the World Cup. If not, the OFC will be the only confederation with no participant in Brazil in 2014.
The Seeding
1. New Zealand
2. Fiji
3. New Caledonia
4. Vanuatu
5. Solomon Islands
6. Tahiti
7. Papua New Guinea
8. Samoa
9. Tonga
10. Cook Islands
11. American Samoa
Round 1
Analysis: Ugh. When the highest ranked team in the group is 189th in the world (out of 208), there isn't much you can say about the group. These teams are the bottom of the worst zone in football. Samoa and American Samoa haven't played since 2007. The only games Cook Islands and Tonga have played since then were a pair of exhibition games against each other in 2009 (1:1 and 2:1 in favour of Cook Islands). This group will be a crapshoot and the winner will be very hard-pressed to make it out of Round 2.
Prediction: Samoa. Advantages have to be had where available and if Samoa does host Round 1 as is anticipated, they will the edge of a home crowd. That may be enough to put them over the top. The results of the 2011 South Pacific Games in a month could provide more insight as to which of these teams have made strides since last qualifying campaign.
Round 2
Group A
Analysis: The easier of the two groups as neither New Zealand or Fiji, the top two teams in the OFC are involved. Should be a three-horse race between New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Tahiti. Both New Caledonia and Vanuatu took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Tahiti finished 3rd in their 2010 Round 1 Group, losing 1-0 to New Caledonia along the way. Tahiti and New Caledonia have played 4 exhibition games since then, each winning twice. New Caledonia took 4 points from Vanuatu in two games in 2010 qualifying, and they've since tied in an exhibition game.
Prediction: New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Caledonia has shown over the past 5 years that they are in contention for the 2nd or 3rd best team in OFC, and should finish atop this group. Vanuatu might have a bit tougher road but they've shown some solid form recently and have been to the final stage of OFC qualifying recently, an advantage not afforded to Tahiti.
Group 2
Analysis: If New Zealand drops a single point, it will be a surprise. They've dominated this continent since Australia left and that shouldn't change. Fiji took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Solomon Islands just missed out on the last round in 2010, dropping their semifinal and bronze medal games at the 2007 South Pacific Games after sweeping through their group. Papua New Guinea has not played in years and is a wildcard at this point, with no one knowing what they'll bring to the table in June 2012.
Prediction: New Zealand and Fiji. The two top-ranked teams in the confederation move on. New Zealand will be fine, Fiji will have to be careful with both Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea though. A loss or tie to either could eliminate them quickly.
SUMMARY
It's a weak zone with one powerhouse and I expect New Zealand to advance and win Round 3 easily. They're fortunate to have drawn CONCACAF as their continental playoff, as that will likely afford them the easiest playoff opponent possible. Provided that opponent isn't USA or Mexico, I feel New Zealand has a decent chance of ending up in the World Cup Finals for a second consecutive time. For the sake of the OFC's organizers, they better hope New Zealand are the champion, Any other team they put up against CONCACAF will get blown out of the water.
Teams Participating: 11
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 0.5
2010 Finals Participants: New Zealand (3rd Group F, 0-0-3, 2 GF, 2GA)
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 0.5
2010 Finals Participants: New Zealand (3rd Group F, 0-0-3, 2 GF, 2GA)
Looking back at 2010
2010 was the first tournament in which Australia, far and away the class of the Oceania Football Confederation would compete in the Asian Zone. A weak zone to begin with, Oceania was and remains now the weakest confederation in world football. Only New Zealand is ranked in the top 100 in the world, and no other team is in the top 150 in the world.
Because of New Zealand's relative dominance over the rest of Oceania, they were given a bye to Round 2 in 2010, with all other teams taking part in Round 1, the football tournament at the 2007 South Pacific Games. The medallists from that tournament would advance to join New Zealand in Round 2, and they were Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Zealand would go on to coast through Round 2 and was able to defeat Bahrain in an inter-confederation playoff to gain the lone spot for Oceania in the 2010 World Cup.
Structure for 2014
The OFC's qualifying for 2014 has undergone some major changes from 2010. In a nutshell, qualification is longer and gone are the South Pacific Games as part of qualifying. The South Pacific Games were originally intended to be involved however FIFA refused to allow the OFC to use those Games for qualifying as Guam (a member of the Asian Football Confederation) would be participating. Having the results of the Oceania Zone impacted by a non-OFC member would be unfair as ruled by FIFA, so that was a no-go.
The OFC has instead opted for a 3-round qualifying tournament, with the eventual winner advancing to an inter-confederational playoff against the 4th-placed team from the North American zone to see who will qualify for the finals in Brazil.
The 11 teams were ranked prior to the preliminary draw based on the current FIFA World Ranking and what were deemed as "sporting considerations". FIFA hasn't been clear what those "sporting considerations" are but read that as the teams at the bottom don't stand a chance of competing with New Zealand and the other top OFC teams, regardless of ranking.
The bottom 4 teams will compete in Round 1, scheduled to be contested in November 2011. They will play a single round-robin tournament at a central location, anticipated to be in Samoa. The group winner will advance to Round 2 while the others will be eliminated.
The Round 1 Winner and the top 7 teams in the OFC's seeding will contest Round 2, which will double as the 2012 OFC Nations Cup. The 8 teams will be divided in to 2 groups of 4, playing a single round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing to the semifinals. The semifinals, and finals are relevant as to who the 2012 OFC Nations Cup champion is, as well as which OFC team will participate in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup. All the semifinalists will advance to Round 3 though, with the third and fourth-place teams in each group being eliminated. Round 2 will take place in Fiji in June 2012.
The 4 remaining teams will contest Round 3 in a single group, playing a double round-robin to be contested between September 2012 and March 2013. The group winner will advance to the inter-confederational playoff, while the other 3 teams will be eliminated. If the Round 3 Winner is successful in that playoff, they will qualify for the World Cup. If not, the OFC will be the only confederation with no participant in Brazil in 2014.
The Seeding
1. New Zealand
2. Fiji
3. New Caledonia
4. Vanuatu
5. Solomon Islands
6. Tahiti
7. Papua New Guinea
8. Samoa
9. Tonga
10. Cook Islands
11. American Samoa
Round 1
Analysis: Ugh. When the highest ranked team in the group is 189th in the world (out of 208), there isn't much you can say about the group. These teams are the bottom of the worst zone in football. Samoa and American Samoa haven't played since 2007. The only games Cook Islands and Tonga have played since then were a pair of exhibition games against each other in 2009 (1:1 and 2:1 in favour of Cook Islands). This group will be a crapshoot and the winner will be very hard-pressed to make it out of Round 2.
Prediction: Samoa. Advantages have to be had where available and if Samoa does host Round 1 as is anticipated, they will the edge of a home crowd. That may be enough to put them over the top. The results of the 2011 South Pacific Games in a month could provide more insight as to which of these teams have made strides since last qualifying campaign.
Round 2
Group A
Analysis: The easier of the two groups as neither New Zealand or Fiji, the top two teams in the OFC are involved. Should be a three-horse race between New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Tahiti. Both New Caledonia and Vanuatu took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Tahiti finished 3rd in their 2010 Round 1 Group, losing 1-0 to New Caledonia along the way. Tahiti and New Caledonia have played 4 exhibition games since then, each winning twice. New Caledonia took 4 points from Vanuatu in two games in 2010 qualifying, and they've since tied in an exhibition game.
Prediction: New Caledonia and Vanuatu. New Caledonia has shown over the past 5 years that they are in contention for the 2nd or 3rd best team in OFC, and should finish atop this group. Vanuatu might have a bit tougher road but they've shown some solid form recently and have been to the final stage of OFC qualifying recently, an advantage not afforded to Tahiti.
Group 2
Analysis: If New Zealand drops a single point, it will be a surprise. They've dominated this continent since Australia left and that shouldn't change. Fiji took part in Round 2 in 2010, while Solomon Islands just missed out on the last round in 2010, dropping their semifinal and bronze medal games at the 2007 South Pacific Games after sweeping through their group. Papua New Guinea has not played in years and is a wildcard at this point, with no one knowing what they'll bring to the table in June 2012.
Prediction: New Zealand and Fiji. The two top-ranked teams in the confederation move on. New Zealand will be fine, Fiji will have to be careful with both Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea though. A loss or tie to either could eliminate them quickly.
SUMMARY
It's a weak zone with one powerhouse and I expect New Zealand to advance and win Round 3 easily. They're fortunate to have drawn CONCACAF as their continental playoff, as that will likely afford them the easiest playoff opponent possible. Provided that opponent isn't USA or Mexico, I feel New Zealand has a decent chance of ending up in the World Cup Finals for a second consecutive time. For the sake of the OFC's organizers, they better hope New Zealand are the champion, Any other team they put up against CONCACAF will get blown out of the water.
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