Qualifying Recap: SOUTH AMERICA

RUNDOWN

Teams Entered in Qualfiying: 9 (Brazil qualified automatically as host)
Spots Allocated by FIFA: 4.5 + Host
Number of Rounds:1 + Intercontinental Playoff
Number of Matches Played: 74
Goals Scored: 206
Top Goal-Scorer: 11 Goals; Luis Suarez (URU)

South American Countries Previously in Cup Finals: 9
Most Appearances: Brazil (20; Only team to appear in every World Cup)
Best Finish: 9 World Titles amongst 3 nations: Brazil (5; 1958, '62, '70, '94 and '02), Argentina (2; 1978 and '86), Uruguay (2; 1930 and '50)

INTRODUCTION

The most straight-forward of all continents, the 9 teams entered in qualifying were placed in a single 9-team group. The group played a double round-robin, with the top 4 teams qualifying directly for the World Cup. The 5th-placed team advanced to an intercontinental playoff against the 5th-placed team in Asian qualifying.


ROUND 1 (October 2011-October 2013)


The format of South American qualifying makes my typical format completely impractical, unless people want me to summarize 72 games at once. The final standings are at the bottom of this section. I've broken this breakdown up though to make things easier to understand and to maintain my sanity. Intermediate standings have been made along the way.

October-November 2011 (16 of 72 games played)

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Uruguay	2	0	1	9	3	6	7
Argentina	2	1	1	7	4	3	7
Venezuela	2	1	1	3	3	0	7
Ecuador	2	1	0	5	2	3	6
Chile	2	2	0	7	10	-3	6
Colombia	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
Paraguay	1	2	1	3	6	-3	4
Peru	1	2	0	4	6	-2	3
Bolivia	0	3	1	4	8	-4	1

After 4 of 18 match days, the favourites on the continent found themselves tied on points at the top, joined by Venezuela, the lone team in South America to never qualify for a World Cup. Venezuela managed to find themselves in this position through a bizarre but ultimately successful squad selection process. Opening qualifying on the road in Ecuador, with a home tilt against Argentina looming days later, Venezuela essentially called up 2 squads of players. The first group played in Ecuador, but a second squad stayed at home preparing for Argentina, and were joined after by a core of players from the Ecuador game. The result was a fresh Venezuela squad, who rode a second-half goal by Fernando Amorebieta to a victory over the 2-time World champions.

While early in the competition, Bolivia's 1 point in 4 games showed very early that they were unlikely to be a factor in the group. The other big surprise was Paraguay with just 4 points in 4 games. Fresh off a quarterfinal berth in 2010 where they lost to a late David Villa goal for Spain, Paraguay was expected to challenge for the group lead, but found themselves trailing and having played more games then some of those they were chasing.

One other trend that was exhibited earlier and always factors in to CONMEBOL qualifying was road wins. Winning away from home is harder in South America then anywhere else in the world. Only 2 of the 16 games saw a victor away from home.

Results: Match Days 1-4

Uruguay 4-2 Bolivia
Ecuador 2-0 Venezuela
Argentina 4-1 Chile
Peru 2-0 Paraguay
Bolivia 1-2 Colombia
Chile 4-2 Peru
Paraguay 1-1 Uruguay
Venezuela 1-0 Argentina
Argentina 1-1 Bolivia
Uruguay 4-0 Chile
Colombia 1-1 Venezuela
Paraguay 2-1 Ecuador
Colombia 1-2 Argentina
Ecuador 2-0 Peru
Chile 2-0 Paraguay
Venezuela 1-0 Bolivia

June-September 2012 (32 of 72 games)

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Argentina	4	1	2	15	6	9	14
Colombia	4	2	1	12	6	6	13
Ecuador	4	2	1	8	7	1	13
Uruguay	3	1	3	15	11	4	12
Chile	4	3	0	12	13	-1	12
Venezuela	3	3	2	7	8	-1	11
Peru	2	4	1	9	13	-4	7
Bolivia	1	5	1	7	12	-5	4
Paraguay	1	5	1	5	14	-9	4

Nearly halfway through qualifying, still bunched at the top but a clear separation between the top 6 and the bottom 3 teams. Unsurprising in the case of Peru and Bolivia but Paraguay still the huge surprise. Playing 3 games in this section, Paraguay lost every game by more than 1 goal, dropping them to last place in the group. A pair of losses harmed Venezuela's efforts in this section, but they remained in touch with the front-runners of the group, but with an extra game having been played at this point.

Colombia and Ecuador were the big climbers, leaping from 6th and 4th previously to 2nd and 3rd, with both teams picking up a pair of wins in these games, both of Colombia's victories coming on the road. These gains were mostly at Uruguay's expense, grabbing just 5 of 12 points in 4 games. Chile continued with their reputation of being one of the most exciting teams in the region. In 7 games, each of their games had at least 2 goals, four of them featuring at least 4 goals.

Results: Match Days 5-8

Uruguay 1-1 Venezuela
Bolivia 0-2 Chile
Argentina 4-0 Ecuador
Peru 0-1 Colombia
Bolivia 3-1 Paraguay
Venezuela 0-2 Chile
Uruguay 4-2 Peru
Ecuador 1-0 Colombia
Colombia 4-0 Uruguay
Ecuador 1-0 Bolivia
Argentina 3-1 Paraguay
Peru 2-1 Venezuela
Chile 1-3 Colombia
Uruguay 1-1 Ecuador
Paraguay 0-2 Venezuela
Peru 1-1 Argentina

October 2012-March 2013 (48 of 72 games)

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Argentina	7	1	3	24	8	16	24
Ecuador	6	2	2	16	10	6	20
Colombia	6	3	1	19	7	12	19
Chile	5	6	0	16	19	-3	15
Venezuela	4	4	3	9	12	-3	15
Uruguay	3	4	4	17	21	-4	13
Peru	3	5	2	11	15	-4	11
Bolivia	2	6	3	13	20	-7	9
Paraguay	2	7	2	8	21	-13	8

The third section of games saw the beginning of 3 teams pulling away at the top, and a 3 team pileup for only 1 qualifying spot and 1 playoff spot. Peru was still in contention for the optimists but their recent qualifying history said odds were not on their side to make it through.

Different subplots followed each of the teams in the middle pack. Chile, in the fashion that has become typical for them would play an extremely aggressive style, trying to outscore their opponents regardless of what chances they might give up. Not a bad tactic in wide-open South American style of play, but the one harming their results in the long run. Venezuela was holding serve so to speak, winning or drawing their games against even or weaker competition and staying in the pack.

Uruguay on the other had was in freefall. This session for them meant 3 road losses, with their only points coming at home in a draw with Paraguay. The end of this session meant a 6-game winless streak for Uruguay. More concerning was that they had only scored 3 goals in that 6-game span. For a team that boasts attacking options like Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan, this was unheard of.

Results: Match Days 9-12

Bolivia 1-1 Peru
Colombia 2-0 Paraguay
Ecuador 3-1 Chile
Argentina 3-0 Uruguay
Bolivia 4-1 Uruguay
Venezuela 1-1 Ecuador
Paraguay 1-0 Peru
Chile 1-2 Argentina
Colombia 5-0 Bolivia
Uruguay 1-1 Paraguay
Argentina 3-0 Venezuela
Peru 1-0 Chile
Bolivia 1-1 Argentina
Ecuador 4-1 Paraguay
Chile 2-0 Uruguay
Venezuela 1-0 Colombia

June 2013-September 2013 (64 of 72 games)

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Argentina	8	1	5	30	11	19	29
Colombia	8	4	2	22	9	13	26
Chile	8	6	0	24	21	3	24
Ecuador	6	4	4	18	14	4	22
Uruguay	6	4	4	22	22	0	22
Venezuela	5	6	4	13	19	-6	19
Peru	4	8	2	15	22	-7	14
Bolivia	2	8	5	16	29	-13	11
Paraguay	3	9	2	15	28	-13	11

With 16 of 18 match days, the group picture became clear. Too far behind Uruguay to catch the playoff spot, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay found themselves eliminated from qualifying. 7 points clear of Uruguay, Argentina became the first team to qualify from the round, joining host and rival Brazil in the World Cup. A far cry from the struggles they experienced in 2010, led by Lionel Messi and Gonzalo Higuain, Argentina established themselves as a favourite for obtaining their 3rd world title in Brazil. Not far ahead of 5th place were Colombia and a resurgent Chile who had won 3 of 4 games this session. They had a bit of room to breathe though as Ecuador and Uruguay still had a head-to-head matchup remaining.

For Ecuador, it was not the finish to qualifying they were looking for. A pair of road losses coupled with 2 draws, left them scrambling to secure the final automatic qualification spot that looked to be a lock earlier in qualifying. Having won all 3 games played in this period, Uruguay had turned its campaign around and could now threaten both Ecuador and Chile on their road to avoid going to a playoff. Also to consider was Venezuela, who was still in striking distance of the playoff spot, albeit with 1 game left and 3 points behind, they would need help to get there.

Results: Match Days 13-16

Bolivia 1-1 Venezuela
Argentina 0-0 Colombia
Paraguay 1-2 Chile
Peru 1-0 Ecuador
Colombia 2-0 Peru
Ecuador 1-1 Argentina
Venezuela 0-1 Uruguay
Chile 3-1 Bolivia
Colombia 1-0 Ecuador
Paraguay 4-0 Bolivia
Chile 3-0 Venezuela
Peru 1-2 Uruguay
Bolivia 1-1 Ecuador
Uruguay 2-0 Colombia
Venezuela 3-2 Peru
Paraguay 2-5 Argentina

Final Standings

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Points
Argentina	9	2	5	35	15	20	32
Colombia	9	4	3	27	13	14	30
Chile	9	6	1	29	25	4	28
Ecuador	7	5	4	20	16	4	25
Uruguay	7	5	4	25	25	0	25
Venezuela	5	6	5	14	20	-6	20
Peru	4	9	3	17	26	-9	15
Bolivia	2	8	6	17	30	-13	12
Paraguay	3	11	2	17	31	-14	12

 
Day 17 of competition put 3 games under the microscope with huge implications on the standings. The only team not sitting in a qualification/advancement position was Venezuela, who needed to win at home against Paraguay to have any chance at qualifying for the first time. Venezuela's surprising run ran out though. Paraguay, forced in to a spoiler role scored midway through the first half and despite giving up a late goal, held on to force a draw and eliminated Venezuela.

Chile's all-out attack paid dividends early against Colombia, as they raced out to a 3-0 lead at halftime. But Colombia kept working at the Chile defence, eventually causing it to crumble, scoring 3 goals themselves in the second half, including a pair of penalty kicks from Radamel Falcao. The 3-3 draw clinched qualification for Colombia, while Chile would be left to see what happened elsewhere. Ecuador/Uruguay was the feature game though, with the winner putting themselves in position to qualify directly. Playing at home in Quito, it was Ecuador who were able to withstand the dangerous Uruguayan front line and pull a 1-0 lead to take a 3-point lead on Uruguay, still in the playoff spot.

The final day, was ultimately uneventful. Uruguay fended off 2 comebacks from Argentina to pull out a 3-2 home victory and draw even on points with Chile and Ecuador. With a +0 goal differential though, Uruguay would need a blowout in their game to avoid the playoffs. A 2-0 halftime lead for Chile still had Uruguay 3 goals behind Ecuador and a Felipe Caicedo goal in the 66th minute ensured qualification for Ecuador, despite the 2-1 loss.

ASIA-SOUTH AMERICA PLAYOFF (November 2013)

5th-place finisher Uruguay advanced to the intercontinental playoff against Jordan, who finished 5th in Asian qualifying. The two teams played a 2-leg aggregate playoff, with the winner qualifying for the World Cup.

Jordan 0-5 Uruguay (0-5, 0-0)

Forced in to a playoff, Uruguay found themselves in a similar spot as Mexico, matched with a vastly overmatched opponent to get through to the World Cup. The first leg was all Uruguay, as 5 different players found the back of the net in Jordan to give the South Americans an insurmountable lead. The return leg was academic, Uruguay not willing to surrender any comeback opportunities, and qualifying comfortably in the playoff after a roller-coaster group stage for the 2010 semifinalist.

Qualifiers


Argentina: 16th Finals Appearance (11th consecutive). Champions in 1978 and '86. Runners-up in 1930 and '90. 4 other quarterfinal appearances, including '06 and '10. World Ranking: 7th
Brazil: 20th Finals Appearance (20th consecutive). Champions in '58, '62, '70, '94 and '02. Runners-up in '50 and '98. 3 other semifinal appearances. World Ranking: 4th
Chile: 9th Finals Appearance (2nd consecutive). Third place finish in 1962. Round of 16 in '98 and '10. World Ranking: 13th
Colombia: 5th Finals Appearance (Last appearance in 1998). Round of 16 in 1990 the only time advanced from Group Stage. World Ranking: 5th
Ecuador: 3rd Finals Appearance (Last appearance in 2006). Round of 16 in 2006 and Group Stage in 2002. World Ranking: 28th
Uruguay: 12th Finals Appearance (2nd consecutive). Champions in 1930 and '50. 3 other semifinal appearances, last in 2010. World Ranking: 6th

Standings Update: November 16, 2011

AFRICA

Round 1 is over and we now have the exact groups for Round 2, begininng next June. Groups are as follows:

Group 1



Probably a 2-horse race with Botswana and South Africa.

Group 2



Cape Verde was a surprise team in 2010 qualifying but Tunisia is the clear favourite to advance from Group 2.

Group 3



I still maintain that it's a crime Morocco and Ivory Coast had to meet this early on in the competition. Only one will advance and it will likely be Ivory Coast, but Morocco will give them all they can handle on the journey.

Group 4



Ghana the huge favourite.

Group 5



Going to be one of the more interesting groups. Burkina Faso the top seed but any one of the other teams could knock them off on any given day. Keep an eye on Gabon in particular who could spring a surprise like last campaign.

Group 6



A very tame handful of teams to go up against Nigeria. They should have little trouble advancing.

Group 7



Similar to Group 5 in that it doesn't take a huge leap to envision the top seed Egypt losing some games. Difference is though that I can't see any other team being able to make a big run in this group. More likely the bottom 3 teams trade results with each other and allow Egypt to escape with enough points.

Group 8



Algeria was a surprise qualifier for 2010 and questions remain about how good they actually are. If they can maintain the form they should last time, this group should be a breeze, If not, it's completely open.

Group 9



Cameroon still the favourite but this is probably the most high-profile group in this round. 3 teams have previously been to the World Cup Finals and the 4th (Libya) is currently having its best run of success in the past couple decades.

Group 10



The most wide open group of qualifying. Senegal is not deserving of a top seed and any team in the group could go on a run and advance from this stage.

ASIA

One Matchday remains in Round 3 and it will come in February 2012. 4 spots in Round 4 are still to be decided. One each from groups 4 and 5 and both spots in group 2, which features South Korea, attempting to qualify for a 8th-straight time.

Group 1



China unceremoniously exited the competition yesterday securing that Iraq and Jordan will advance to Round 4. Iraq plays Singapore while Jordan meets China on the final day and Iraq could have a chance to win the group should Jordan falter against China.

Group 2



A South Korea loss to Lebanon along with a Kuwait comeback against U.A.E. have put this group in to chaos. With just 2 games remaining, no one is safe amongst the top 3, which includes a long-time World Cup Finals contender and the worst ranked team in this round. Kuwait has to travel to South Korea while Lebanon visits U.A.E. Scenarios are as follows:

Kuwait will advance with a WIN.
Lebanon will advance with a WIN/DRAW, or a Kuwait DRAW/LOSS.
South Korea will advance with a WIN/DRAW, or a Lebanon LOSS.

There's also some goal differential scenarios involving Korea and Lebanon but given the existing difference, I doubt they'll both lose and have that be a factor. Kuwait appears to be the odd man out here. They must beat South Korea on the road in order to advance. Should they do that, it will be a wild game later in the day for Lebanon, who would have to secure a draw to advance, eliminating South Korea in the process.

Group 3



Japan and Uzbekistan jumped out front early and were never going to relinquish control. Both had clinched advancement with 2 games to spare.

Group 4



More chaos. Saudi Arabia had a chance to clinch yesterday if they could beat Oman at home. But they didn't and all of a sudden find themselves in a very bad position despite currently sitting 2nd. Saudi Arabia travels to Australia in February while Oman hosts Thailand. Saudi Arabia was thoroughly beaten by Australia last encounter. And while Australia is already through, I can guarantee they'll put out their best roster in February. They don't want to see Saudi Arabia in the next round and they'll be looking to end their road here. Even if Saudi Arabia draws, that lets b0th of the other teams have a chance to advance. Here are the scenarios:

Oman will advance with a WIN combined with a Saudi Arabia DRAW/LOSS, or a DRAW combined with a Saudi Arabia LOSS provided the goal differential favours Oman (Not likely).
Saudi Arabia will advance with a WIN, or a DRAW combined with either an Oman DRAW or an Oman LOSS provided Saudi Arabia has a better goal differential than Thailand, or a LOSS combined with an Oman DRAW.
Thailand will advance with a WIN combined with either a Saudi Arabia LOSS or a Saudi Arabia DRAW provided Thailand has a better goal differential.

I personally don't know what to predict here, because the bottom of this group has been so inconsistent. Because the Saudi game is being played in Australia, we should know the result before the Oman game even starts which will clear things up a bit. If Saudi Arabia wins, they're through. If they draw or lose, then it will probably take an Oman win or a Thailand win (by 3 goals if Saudi Arabia draws) to knock them off. Should Saudi Arabia lose, Oman would be even on points with a draw but they'd also need Saudi Arabia to have lostby 6 which isn't likely. It sounds confusing right now, and it is, but it will be a lot clearer on game day.

Group 5



Iran was again unimpressive on the road against Bahrain but has done enough to advance. Other spot will go to either Qatar or Bahrain. Qatar travels to Iran in February while Bahrain hosts Indonesia. In order for Bahrain to advance, they must beat Indonesia and Qatar must lose to Iran. But even that isn't enough. The combined goal differential in the 2 games must be at least 10 for Bahrain to win the tiebreak outright against Qatar, or 9 goals provided Bahrain has more goals for than Qatar. In short, Bahrain is not mathematically eliminated, but they need a miracle in order to pass Qatar at this point.

NORTH AMERICA

Round 2

These are the final Round 2 standings now that all games have been completed.

Group 1



Easy go of things for El Salvador who finish with a perfect record.

Group 2



Ended up being a lot closer than it ever seemed to be with Bermuda grabbing a pair of wins late against Barbados. Would have liked to have seen the schedule altered so that Bermuda's schedule wasn't so front-loaded. Might have made the race a bit more interesting down the stretch.

Group 3



You can now turn off your snooze button. Panama breezed easily as expected.

Group 4



Canada faltered a bit down the stretch but was never in danger of losing the group.

Group 5



Great job by Guatemala but this is what I was referring to above in Africa Group 7. Guatemala did great, but even a mediocre performance would be enough when everyone else is beating each other. Guatemala finished as the only team in the group above .500 as well as the only team with a positive goal differential.

Group 6



The biggest surprise of the round, Antigua/Barbuda have come seemingly out of nowhere, to finish with 26 goals in 6 games, and knocking off group favourite Haiti on the second last day. I'm curious to see how they do against the likes of the U.S. and Jamaica next round. Could be in over their head or will give opposing defences nightmares.

Round 3

Standings with a bit of analysis were posted here but I'll show the groups again.

Group 1



Group 2



Group 3



SOUTH AMERICA



No surprise who the top 2 are although Argentina has been less than spectacular in getting there. No real surprises from Ecuador through the bottom given the schedules of the teams listed. Venezuela is the big stunner though, with 7 points in 4 games. They'll have a rough stretch coming up though with Uruguay, Chile and Paraguay all in their next 4 games. If they're in a similar spot after that gauntlet, we can talk about them as possible qualifiers.