Game 64 Preview: Germany vs. Argentina

GERMANY vs. ARGENTINA
World Cup Final

 Date: July 31, 2014

Time: 3:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Estadio do Maracana, Rio de Janeiro

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 9-6-5 Argentina

Last Match: 2012 Friendly. Argentina def Germany 3-1.

Line: Germany +115

Group G Preview here.
Group F Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Germany (2nd), Argentina (5th)

Managers: Joachim Low (GER), Alejandro Sabella (ARG)

Captains: Philipp Lahm (GER), Lionel Messi (ARG)

World Cup Appearances: 18 (GER), 16 (ARG)

Best Finish: Germany (3x Champions, Last in 1990), Argentina (2x Champions, Last in 1986)

Qualifying Records: Germany (9-0-1, GF: 36, GA: 10), Argentina (9-2-5, GF: 35, GA: 15)

Previous Game Results

Germany

June 16th - Germany def. Portugal 4-0
June 21st - Germany tied Ghana 2-2

June 26th - Germany def. USA 1-0 

June 30th - Germany def. Algeria 2-1 in Extra Time (Round of 16) 

July 4th - Germany def. France 1-0 (Quarterfinals)

July 8th - Germany def. Brazil 7-1 (Semifinals)

Argentina

June 15th - Argentina def. Bosnia 2-1
June 21st - Argentina def. Iran 1-0  

June 25th - Argentina def. Nigeria 3-2 

July 1st - Argentina def. Switzerland 1-0 in extra time (Round of 16)

July 5th - Argentina def. Belgium 1-0 (Quarterfinals)

July 9th - Argentina tied Netherlands 0-0 (4-2 in Penalty Kicks) (Semifinals)

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Germany: Shkodran Mustafi (Out - Hamstring)
Algeria: Angel Di Maria (Doubtful - Thigh)

Projected Lineups

Overview

The 20th World Cup Champion will be determined today as Germany and Argentina square off in the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Neither team is a stranger to this spotlight. Argentina have won the World Cup twice and appeared in the final game on 2 other occasions. Germany have 3 World Cup titles to their credit and have made 4 other appearances in the championship. Between the two, fully one-third of all championship game appearances have been made by these two foes.

 

This is also not the first championship fought between the two. The same teams appeared in the 1990 World Cup final in Italy as West Germany went on to defeat Argentina 1-0. Argentina has not been back to the final game since. Germany fell 2-0 to Brazil in the 2002 final in Japan.

 

Stylistically, this expected to be a close game. Both teams employ variations of a 4-3-3 system and like playing keep-away with the ball through the middle of the field. Germany have more balance throughout the field in attack but Argentina have the more potent scorers with players like Lionel Messi. Defensively, Germany not the fastest team but make up for that with great awareness and positional play. Argentina have speed but some mental lapses throughout the centre of the field and their own penalty area.

 

Germany have made limited personnel changes throughout the tournament but their question marks are on defence and at striker. Per Mertesacker started through the group stage but was sidelined by flu and hasn't made his way back in yet. He may make a reappearance today as Mats Hummels has been dealing with tendonitis in his knees. At striker, Miroslav Klose has started the last couple games. Doesn't have the pace to go a full 90+ minutes though so Joachim Low has to decide if he wants to use him as a sub or continue in a starting role. Mario Gotze is the likely replacement if Klose sits.

 

Argentina have a pair of selection issues as well although one is a luxury choice. Sergio Aguero is fully healthy after an injury and available to start today instead of Ezequiel Lavezzi. Sabella will need to decide if that's a switch worth making after Lavezzi has played all knockout round games, not to mention Aguero's poor form before being injured. Defensively, either Federico Fernandez or Martin Demichelis will start next to Ezequiel Garay. This is a crucial decision for Argentina to make depending on how they think Germany will hurt them most. Demichelis the more intelligent defender but lacks top end pace or speed. Fernandez more mobile but susceptible to defensive lapses.

Personnel

In the German Third: I would be surprised if Lionel Messi doesn't line up at right wing today. The chance to have him matched up against Howedes is too good for Argentina to pass up. Outside of that, it's not a great situation for Argentina. Higuain and Aguero/Lavezzi can be neutralized by the rest of this German defence and they still have to find a way past Neuer. Barring a miracle recovery, they also won't have Angel Di Maria to make plays in the midfield. It's Advantage: Germany with the caveat that Lionel Messi has the potential to wreak havoc if matched up one on one with Howedes. I'd personally put Mertesacker in the centre and move Boateng out to cover Messi but doubt that will happen.

In the Midfield: Both teams like to play possession and here and minimize the number of turnovers they commit. Can break down the personnel but simple matter is this. Both teams do the same thing, but Germany better at both and better able to counter-attack off of mistakes. Oh, and strictly based on personnel, they have an advantage as well. Advantage: Germany.

In the Argentine Third: Becoming a broken record but another bad matchup for Argentina. Germany love to attack the centre of the defence with speed and passing. Argentina either goes with intelligence and little speed or speed with mental errors. In either case, Germany can take advantage. Also would be very concerned about Rojo and Zabaleta being caught upfield on counter-attacks. Ask Brazil how that worked against this team. Advantage: Germany.

Goalkeeping: I questioned his #1 in the world status before the tournament. I think there's a couple guys that still have a claim but not doubting any more. Manuel Neuer is an x-factor on a team that really didn't need one. His ability to play sweeper in defence as well is going underrated. Forces the opponent back on their heels having that extra defender type player back. Advantage: Germany

Germany will win if:

Won't have as much possession as they usually do, need to be patient about that. Ghana is the only team they've faced that were able to get sustained midfield possession and Germany panicked when it happened. Keep in control, keep Argentina and Messi away from the scoring area and counter-attack quick when they gain possession. Offensively, they can afford to hang on to the ball as well, but always need to look at getting in to scoring position. Stagnated in games in the group stage because they were content to just sit on the ball. Need to look at attacking the centre of the field from different angles.

Argentina will win if:

Great players are able to take over games such as this one. And Argentina have the best in the world lining up for them in this game. The only knock on Messi's career has been a lack of titles at the international level. If Messi can take over this game the way greats such as Pele and Maradona have before him, his legacy will be cemented amongst them as the greatest players ever. Argentina absolutely need a legendary game out of him today. I do not see a way for them to win if he doesn'tt ake the game over on a personal level.

Prediction

If Lionel Messi weren't playing, this would be a very mismatched contest. Still is in my opinion but Messi can keep Argentina in the game. Germany the victor of their 4th championship and score at least 2 goals. Whether Argentina score depends on Messi's game.

Germany 2-1 Argentina.

Game 62 Starting Lineups (Netherlands vs. Argentina)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups Below:

Netherlands

de Jong and van Persie both good to go. Cannot stress enough how big a benefit it is that de Jong in particular is healthy. That's the difference maker in this game. I predicted Argentina would win this game, de Jong's presence is enough for me to flip that to Netherlands winning.

 

Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Tim Krul (#23), Michel Vorm (#22)

Defenders: Daryl Janmaat (#7), Terence Kongolo (#14), Joel Veltman (#13), Paul Verhaegh (#12)

Midfielders: Jordy Clasie (#16), Leroy Fer (#18), Jonathan de Guzman (#8)

Forwards: Memphis Depay(#21), Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (#19), Jeremain Lens (#17)


Argentina

Biglia gets the call in di Maria's case.



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Mariano Andujar (#21), Agustin Orion (#12)

Defenders: Jose Maria Basanta (#23), Hugo Campagnaro (#3), Federico Fernandez (#17)

Midfielders: Ricardo Alvarez (#19), Augusto Fernandez (#13), Fernando Gago (#5),Maxi Rodriguez (#11)

Forwards: Sergio Aguero (#20), Rodrigo Palacio (#18)

Game 62 Preview: Netherlands vs. Argentina

NETHERLANDS vs. ARGENTINA
Semifinals - Game 2

 Date: July 9, 2014

Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 4-1-3 Netherlands

Last Match: 2006 World Cup (Group Stage). Netherlands tied Argentina 0-0.

Line: Argentina +130

Group B Preview here.
Group F Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Netherlands (15th), Argentina (5th)

Managers: Louis van Gaal (NED), Alejandro Sabella (ARG)

Captains: Robin van Persie (NED), Lionel Messi (ARG)

World Cup Appearances: 10 (NED), 16 (ARG)

Best Finish: Netherlands (3x Runners-up, Last in 2010), Argentina (2x Champions, Last in 1986)

Qualifying Records: Netherlands (9-0-1, GF: 34, GA: 5), Argentina (9-2-5, GF: 35, GA: 15)

Previous Game Results

Netherlands

June 13th - Netherlands def. Spain 5-1
June 18th - Netherlands def. Australia 3-2

June 23rd - Netherlands def. Chile 2-0 

June 29th - Netherlands def. Mexico 2-1

July 5th - Netherlands tied Costa Rica 0-0 (Won 4-3 on Penalty Kicks)

Argentina

June 15th - Argentina def. Bosnia 2-1
June 21st - Argentina def. Iran 1-0  

June 25th - Argentina def. Nigeria 3-2 

July 1st - Argentina def. Switzerland 1-0 in extra time

July 5th - Argentina def. Belgium 1-0

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Netherlands: Nigel de Jong (Doubtful - Back), Leroy Fer (Questionable - Injury), Robin van Persie (Questionable - Illness), Ron Vlaar (Questionable - Injury)

Argentina: Sergio Aguero (Probable - Thigh), Angel di Maria (Out - Thigh)

Projected Lineups

There's a lingering element of mystery in what both squads might look like today. Both sides are dealing with multiple injury concerns to key players which likely has both managers tinkering with different options and fitness reports this morning.

Big questions for Netherlands are regarding van Persie, Vlaar and de Jong. de Jong is likely out as he deals with a lingering leg issue. van Persie is the biggest concern though. Louis van Gaal revealed yesterday van Persie was dealing with an intestinal problem. and was doubtful for today's game. I have to think RVP would play if he was at all capable but his match fitness my ultimately be what keeps him out if he is that ill. Ron Vlaar is also carrying a knock and is a question in this game. If van Persie can't go, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar should step in as a same style replacement. Things may get tricky if Vlaar can't play though. van Gaal may opt for Kongolo as a centre back replacement, or look to Fer or de Guzman in the midfield as a sub and drop Blind and Kuyt back to true full back positions.

Argentina may have Sergio Aguero back from a thigh injury. His starting place is in doubt though after a poor run of games earlier in the tournament and being capably replaced by Ezequiel Lavezzi. The big loss for Argentina is Angel di Maria in the midfield who will not play due to a thigh injury of his own. di Maria has been Argentina's best player in this tournament (Yes, that includes Messi) and will be difficult to replace in the Argentine midfield. The entire Argentine midfield is a bit of a guess at this point. Mascherano appears the only lock as 6 players have claims to a starting role in this game with di Maria out.

Overview

Here's your interesting stat of the day. In 8 previous meetings between these teams, Argentina have never managed to defeat the Netherlands in 90 minutes. For their only victory over the Dutch, you have to go back to the 1978 World Cup final when a pair of extra time goals handed Argentina their first ever World Cup title.

The last meeting between these two teams occurred 8 years ago in the 2006 World Cup. This game promises more offensive fireworks then that scoreless draw did though with the likes of Lionel Messi and Arjen Robben on the field today.

A bit of a stylistic contrast between the two teams today. The Dutch are playing an adapted version of the total football they are known for, and will use speed and long ball movement to attack defences  vertically and create mismatches in the offensive third. Argentina are a bit more methodical in attack, working their way up field and constantly moving their back line up to shrink the field and overwhelm their opponents.

Netherlands have varied their formation slightly throughout the tournament but the 5-3-2 type formation has worked wonders this tournament. Daley Blind and Dirk Kuyt will likely take up the critical wing back positions that have been the driving key to Dutch success so far this tournament. Up front, the Dutch attacking trio is one of the most dangerous in the world, although they may be without Robin van Persie in this contest.

Argentina have switched personnel as necessary but should continue with their 4-3-3 attacking formation in this contest. Argentina allow their front 3 to roam in attack with support from their midfielders and full backs. The midfield is a question mark for Argentina as they are without top player Angel di Maria due to injury.

Personnel

In the Dutch Third: Whether it's Aguero or Lavezzi facing them, this is a big area of concern facing the Dutch. Messi/Higuain/Whoever form an attacking trio that's just as potently dangerous to the Dutch goal as their attackers are. My biggest concern for the Dutch is Messi's ability to operate in the middle of the field. This is a young back line and they can drop too deep relative to their central midfield, especially with de Jong out. They continually expose space in the centre of the field just above their penalty area and Messi will rain goals in from that area. Advantage: Argentina

In the Midfield: Would be advantage Argentina if di Maria were available. Both sides missing key players (de Jong) which take away from the luster of the midfield battle in this game. I like the Dutch ability to counter-attack and expose Argentina on the flanks defensively. I don't like their ability to defend the Argentine possession and keep them from controlling the middle of the field. I anticipate a relatively free-flowing game through the midfield as neither side adept at defending this area and both teams like getting forward quick and in numbers. Advantage: Even

In the Argentine Third: A lot hangs on whether or not van Persie can go at 100%. I think if he can't then Huntelaar has to play no matter what. Huntelaar not the same class as van Persie with his control and finishing though and this game will hinge on Robben and Sneijder for the Dutch. I think Robben and Sneijder amongst the rest of the Dutch players can expose some holes in the Argentine lines, particularly on Robben's flank. Advantage: Netherlands. By how much depends on RVP's health though.

Goalkeeping: Cillessen with a bit more overall quality to his game. Romero has stepped up this tournament though. I would give the Dutch a slight edge except I have to question Cillessen's mental state after being yanked for the shootout against Costa Rica. Been a goaltender in hockey personally my whole life and situations like that can mess with you. Advantage: Even

Netherlands will win if:

Goes without saying for everyone facing Argentina but need to bottle up Messi. Will need Depay/Wijnaldum in the midfield to play defensive soccer today and limit the space Messi has to move through the middle of the field. Dangerous everywhere but far less bite if he is forced to go wide around Martins Indi. Offensively, let Robben get the ball in attack and do what he's been doing all tournament. Has been as dangerous as Messi this tournament and should open up some attacking lanes on the ball.

Argentina will win if:

Aggression through the midfield and in the Dutch half. This is a young Dutch team outside of a few players and they have been reckless on the ball throughout the tournament. Force pressure in their own half and they should end up with some juicy chances and space to operate in. Defensively, special attention needs to be paid to Robben. Can't allow him to fly down the field with pace and either shoot on goal or find wide-open teammates.

Prediction

Should be a closer game than yesterday (or at least we can all hope it is). There isn't much separating these two teams. Both have incredible attacking talent playing in top form facing some suspect defensive lines. Both have some key injuries they're trying to recover from. My gut is saying it's the Dutch, but looking through all of the above, my head doesn't see it. My guess is this game's decided late and Argentina's quality up front wins out.

Argentina 2-1 Netherlands

Quarterfinal Bullets

Lack of posts today, got busy with other stuff. Will have some point-form breakdowns of the teams eliminated in the group stage tomorrow. Wanted to give some brief thoughts on each quarterfinal game though.

Brazil vs. Colombia

• I picked Colombia to win this game and I'm sticking by that. Whether that is wise remains to be seen.
• There were concerns on the weekend about Neymar's health after he picked up a knee injury against Chile but he is apparently training fully again. Neymar would have to be immobile not to play for Brazil in this tournament
• Most exciting battle of the game won't be amongst players facing each other every play but between the number 10's Neymar and James Rodriguez. If I had to pick best player in the tournament right now it would be Rodriguez and not the host's star.
• If I had to make any tough personnel decisions, I'd sit Fred for Brazil. They won't but they probably should. Neymar has spent half his time as a centre forward anyway, put him in the middle and Bernard on the wing in my opinion. 
• Brazil have a forced change to make in the midfield as Luiz Gustavo is suspended. That is a blow for Brazil because that's the best option on the roster for shutting Rodriguez down.

France vs. Germany

•  Game looked much more exciting before the Round of 16 games were played as both limped through their matches. Still about a 13 out of 10 on the excitement factor.
• Probably meeting earlier then they should, I have both teams in my top 5 in terms of a power ranking in this tournament.
• I picked Germany to win this game. Not quite ready to change that pick yet but leaning towards France at this point.
• Biggest concern I have for Germany is the lack of initiative offensively. France isn't going to let them pass the ball around forever in midfield and have kept their own penalty area shut tight. Without a striker, big concerns for Germany.
• Defensively for Germany, you have speed on the wings and scoring from everywhere to be concerned with. If I were Joachim Low, I'd have both Schweinsteiger and Khedira in midfield so Lahm can go back to right back and Boateng can flip to left. This gives you your best chance at containing the French wingers and keeping things in the centre of the field where they'd prefer it.

 Netherlands vs. Costa Rica

•  No one told Costa Rica that this was the quarterfinals of the World Cup. A complete shock name to see amongst the giants of soccer.
• Regardless of whether this was Costa Rica or Greece as an opponent, this is a step down in competition for Netherlands. Always have to question their mental strength but that doesn't seem to be an issue and I fully expect them to control and win this game.
• Costa Rica are without two starting players due to suspension (Tejeda and Duarte).
• Netherlands will be without Nigel de Jong for the remainder of the World Cup. de Jong suffered an injury in the first half of the Mexico game. That is an issue for Louis van Gaal. He used Daley Blind as a holding midfielder after de Jong left and it led directly to a Mexico goal. Blind may take up that role again or we could see Jonathan de Guzman reinserted in to the lineup.
• Netherlands have rotated between a 5-3-2 and a 4-3-3 this tournament. Fully expect a 4-3-3 this game as they should have 60+% of possession and the ball will spend majority of the time in the Costa Rican half.

Argentina vs. Belgium

• Felt it would be the toughest quarterfinal to predict and it hasn't gotten any easier. Comparing Belgium with Switzerland, they don't have the same defensive organization but they aren't slouches. Much more dangerous on the attack though. Like to control possession in the midfield but they do so to work toward a chance on goal, as opposed to a Spain or Germany who pass for the sake of passing.
• Argentina should have a tiny but more space in the offensive third but Belgium the biggest attacking threat they've faced so far.
• Argentina are really missing Aguero. Had a poor tournament so far but draws defenders off of Messi in a way Lavezzi cannot replicate. That's a big part of why Switzerland could keep Messi out of the game and don't believe there's a solution for that.
• Loved the Belgium lineup against the USA. Were confident in defence and used their size to their advantage. Deadly efficient on the counter-attack and finally got offence from their striker spot, both with Origi starting and with Lukaku off the bench. Lukaku the better player but is impact off the bench late in the game will probably keep Origi in the starting lineup. 

Game 55 Recap: Argentina 1-0 Switzerland

ARGENTINA 1-0 (ET) SWITZERLAND

For the second time in this tournament, Argentina pulled out a late (lucky?) victory in the closing stages and overcame a monstrous defensive effort by Switzerland to reach the quarterfinals.

Switzerland will be devastated with the final outcome but can take solace in their performance, easily their best of the World Cup.

It was clear from the start of this game this would be a tough outing for both sides offensively. Argentina could find no way through the crowded Swiss penalty area. The Swiss tried to counter-attack but their defensive commitment left them little in the way of attacking options in this contest.

Oddly, Switzerland did have the better of the scoring opportunities in the first half. A short corner kick in the 27th minute led to a Granit Xhaka shot from the top of the penalty area. The low shot was straight at Sergio Romero though who did well to kick the ball away. Josip Drmic was played on a breakaway in the 39th but his attempt to chip over Romero resulted in a straight pass to the Argentine goalkeeper and a blooper reel faceplant for Drmic.

Argentina could get non closer then Ezequiel Garay flashing a header across goal off of a corner kick in the half.

At around the 60 minute mark, Argentina turned up the heat on the Swiss defence. Diego Benaglio awkwardly saved a shot from Marcos Rojo before the ball was cleared. That was followed minutes later by a leaping tip over the bar off of a Gonzalo Higuain header. Benaglio almost repeated the save just after as Lionel Messi sent a dipping volley just over the Swiss crossbar.

Argentina's pressure continued but was not enough to break down the Swiss lines who held strong and forced the game to extra time. More of the same in the first half of extra time as Argentina dominated possession but had no way through to Benaglio's goal.

The chances got going again in the second half though leading to a crazy finish. Angel di Maria, the one Argentina player able to create consistent space and chances in the game hit a shot from distance that was only tipped wide by a full stretch from Benaglio. In the 118th minute, he would score from almost the same spot.

With Switzerland advancing, Stephan Lichtsteiner gave up the ball in midfield leading to an odd-man rush for Argentina. Lionel Messi played di Maria through and from nearly the same position as his last chance, di Maria slid the ball just past Benaglio and in to the far side of the net. It was the breakthrough Argentina had sought all game and which Switzerland had been determined all day to prevent.

Forced in to offence, Switzerland were inches away from equalizing in injury time. A Xherdan Shaqiri cross hit substitute Blerim Dzemaili at goal front. His headed effort went off the far post, and rebounded back in to Dzemaili but his second attempt was just wide. A very late free kick from close range was smacked in to the Argentina wall by Shaqiri in the last play of the game.

Goals

Argentina: Angel di Maria (118')

Switzerland: N/A

Discipline

Argentina: Marcos Rojo (Yellow 90' - Misses Next Match), Angel di Maria (Yellow 120'), Ezequiel Garay (Yellow 120+4')

Switzerland: Granit Xhaka (Yellow 36'), Gelson Fernandes (Yellow 73')

Man of the Match

Fans voted Lionel Messi Man of the Match. They're wrong. Had an awful game by his standards and was merely gifted an assist by Lichtsteiner late. Can argue for Di Maria who was the best Argentine player out there today but I'm giving it to Fabian Schar. Was tasked with man-marking Lionel Messi around the penalty area and completely took him out of the game. Great performance by the young central defender.

Key Moment

Late in the extra time period, Stephan Lichtsteiner coughed the ball up at midfield. A careless turnover with penalties looming and it led to a darting Lionel Messi run up the midfield. Messi wisely slid the ball outside to Angel di Maria whose one-time shot was just beyond the fingertips of Diego Benaglio on goal. Switzerland nearly pulled out a miracle come back after but no moment in the match more important than this one.

What we learned from Argentina

They're running out of ways to pull out victories. Granted they were up against a stellar defensive performance but never got the flow going offensively and Switzerland looked threatening when they did get out on attack. Commentators were mentioning how people see Argentina as a favourite to win the tournament. I don't see it. Not going to win 3 more games if they keep playing how they have.

What we learned from Switzerland

That's why they're the sixth-ranked team in the world. Best display of defensive soccer in the tournament. Were able to remove Messi from the game for 117 minutes without surrendering too many chances on the outside. If they had any capable striker up front, I think they would have won this game.

Going Forward

Switzerland finally put together a complete performance but head home regardless in brutal fashion. Argentina will face the winner of Belgium-USA later today. They'll be favoured against either team but I would be hesitant to say they can definitively beat either right now.

Game 55 Starting Lineups (Argentina vs. Switzerland)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups below:

Argentina

No surprise from Argentina as Lavezzi the only new starter for the injured Aguero.



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Mariano Andujar (#21), Agustin Orion (#12)

Defenders: Jose Maria Basanta (#23), Hugo Campagnaro (#3), Martin Demichelis (#15)

Midfielders: Ricardo Alvarez (#19), Lucas Biglia (#6), Augusto Fernandez (#13), Enzo Perez (#8), Maxi Rodriguez (#11)

Forwards: Rodrigo Palacio (#18)


Switzerland

No change for Switzerland from the team that beat up Honduras.

 

 
Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Roman Burki (#21), Yann Sommer (#12)

Defenders: Michael Lang (#6), Philippe Senderos (#4), Reto Ziegler (#3)

Midfielders: Tranquillo Barnetta (#7), Blerim Dzemaili (#15), Gelson Fernandes (#16), Valentin Stocker (#14)

Forwards: Mario Gavranovic (#17), Haris Seferovic (#9)

Game 55 Preview: Argentina vs. Switzerland

ARGENTINA vs. SWITZERLAND
Round of 16 - Game 7

 Date: July 1, 2014

Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 4-0-2 Argentina

Last Match: 2012 Friendly. Argentina def. Switzerland 3-1.

Line: Argentina -220

Group E Preview here.
Group F Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Argentina (5th), Switzerland (6th)

Managers: Alejandro Sabella (ARG), Ottmar Hitzfeld (SUI)

Captains: Lionel Messi (ARG), Gokhan Inler (SUI)

World Cup Appearances: 16 (ARG), 10 (SUI)

Best Finish: Argentina (2x Champions, Last in 1986), Switzerland (3x Quarterfinals, Last in 1950)

Qualifying Records: Argentina (7-1-4, GF: 24, GA: 8), Switzerland (7-0-3, GF: 17, GA: 6)

Previous Game Results

Argentina

June 15th - Argentina def. Bosnia 2-1
June 21st - Argentina def. Iran 1-0  

June 25th - Argentina def. Nigeria 3-2

Switzerland

June 15th - Switzerland def. Ecuador 2-1
June 20th - France def. Switzerland 5-2 

June 25th - Switzerland def. Honduras 3-0

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Argentina: Sergio Aguero (Out - Leg), Marcos Rojo (Yellow Card)
Switzerland: Johan Djourou (Yellow Card), Steve von Bergen (Out-Cheek)

Overview

Possibly the most anticipated day of the Round of 16 kicks off at noon Eastern time as Argentina take on Switzerland in Sao Paulo. While the other quarters of the bracket had clear favourites in them, this match and the one following appear wide open and should make for some compelling soccer.

Argentina looked a little shaky despite winning all 3 group stage matches so far. Switzerland took a while to get in to the tournament, decisively winning their last match despite having been blown out by France earlier in Group E play. Switzerland will not be excited to see Lionel Messi lining up across from them though. These two teams met in a 2012 friendly and Messi torched the Swiss defence for a hat trick in Bern.

Neither side have made drastic personnel changes in this tournament but both sides are missing key players. Switzerland are still without centre back Steve von Bergen who suffered a facial fracture against France. Both Philippe Senderos and Fabian Schar have filled in for him. Argentina will be missing forward Sergio Aguero, possibly for the rest of the tournament after he suffered a muscle strain in their final group match. He is expected to be replaced by Ezequiel Lavezzi.

Expecting Switzerland to come out in the 4-2-3-1 formation they have used throughout with Josip Drmic again in the lone striker role. Desired to be a source of goals in this tournament, Drmic created havoc against Honduras with his ability to latch on to long balls and then find midfielders for chances on goal. Switzerland will look to replicate that against an Argentine central defence that hasn't impressed so far in Brazil.

Argentina should stick with the 4-3-3 they have been using. Biggest question will be the alignment of forwards up front and whether they continue to use Messi as a centre forward or put Gonzalo Higuain in the middle. Messi provides the biggest goal threat in the centre but both players are better suited to Messi being on the wing instead.

Personnel

In the Argentine Third: An interesting matchup. Switzerland not expected to be a goal-scoring machine in this tournament but they managed 7 in 3 group games. Don't know how much success they'll have on the wings but that's not really their game anyway. Expect them to create a lot of movement on the ball through the centre of the pitch and try to draw Fernandez and Garay out of position. Drmic and Shaqiri worked wonders through the centre last game and I think they have a chance to do that again today. Advantage: Switzerland.

In the Midfield: Argentina the dynamic offensive team against a Swiss team that likes to be physical defensively. Switzerland more methodical on the ball against a passive Argentine midfield. The Swiss tend to turn the ball over though. That all seems a wash and while tempted to go with the higher quality players, not sure there's necessarily an advantage either way there. Very close contest here. Advantage: Even.

In the Swiss Third: Not sure the loss of Aguero is a bad thing for Argentina as he was a non-factor in all the time he was on the field in Group F. The Swiss bread-and-butter is supposed to be their defence but they were carved up all the group stages. And they won't forget that Messi did score 3 goals against them last game and had ample time to operate on the rush. Messi is a BIG (figuratively) problem for Switzerland that I don't believe they have an answer for. Advantage: Argentina.

Goalkeeping: Benaglio the better profile but also surrendered 6 goals in group play. Both keepers have looked good, not great so far. Advantage: Even.

Argentina will win if:

Not concerned about them offensively, I think they'll find space to get to goal and have the best player in the world leading the way. Defensively, have to clog the middle of the field and force the Swiss outside. Drmic's speed as a striker and the big shots from their midfielders are the concern today for Argentina. Force the Swiss wide and they're stuck with crosses with are generally ineffective for the small Swiss attackers. Allow them space to cut inside and get shots away and this will be a long day for Argentina.

Switzerland will win if:

The Swiss midfield has to step up and win that section of the field. Argentina will want to control this section of the field so they can control the tempo of that match however they please. If you watched the friendly between these teams, they did that and more concerningly, had all day to find space and chances on the rush through the middle of the field in to the Swiss third. Switzerland have to plug those holes and impose their will in the centre of the field. It will disrupt the flow for Argentina offensively and keep Messi from getting the free runs that will end with the ball in the Swiss net.

Prediction

It's a much closer matchup then I think people give it credit for. Part of that may be that Switzerland looked dreadful for much of the group stage. And while I still don't think they're in form, I have to assume they will be for this crucial game.

What it comes down to for me is this. Much of the game is a wash but each team has a chance to take an advantage in the attacking third. I think Argentina's attacking players are far more threatening then Switzerland's despite 7 Swiss goals in the group stage. Argentina takes this one late, and odds are Messi's involved somehow.

Argentina 2-1 Switzerland

Knockout Round Predictions: Version II

You may remember that two weeks ago I posted my pre-tournament knockout round predictions. Here's what I had come up with:



That's compared with the actual bracket in the header.

Final tally on teams:

• 10 of 16 correct
• 8 of 16 in the correct slot

Dreadful in my opinion. Costa Rica, and the Iberian peninsula messed me up.

Anyway that's not the point of this post. Want to give an overview of the knockout round now that we actually know where everyone is slotted in. Have broken the bracket down in to 4 quarters and will then look at the semifinals/finals. REMINDER AS ALWAYS: I RESERVE JUDGMENT TO CHANGE THIS WHEN I DO GAME PREVIEWS. Without further ado:

Quarter 1

Yes, it appears that a CONMEBOL tournament has broken out in the midst of the World Cup. South American fans have to be thrilled to have 5 teams in the Round of 16. But with 4 in the same quarter, there's no more then 2 that can make the semifinals.

There are 2 constants in CONMEBOL soccer that I have observed. 1) Home field advantage means everything. Brazil would figure to have that advantage but there are plenty of visiting supporters from neighbouring countries at this tournament. 2) Expect the unexpected. On any given day, any of these four teams can beat the other.

In regard to BRAZIL-CHILE, I'm expecting goals and plenty of them. Both teams play fast-paced, sometimes irresponsible soccer but both love to attack. I'm tipping Brazil though due to how they match up personnel wise with Chile. Chile play a 3-man back line which can leave plenty of space in which opponents can operate. That's something Neymar, Oscar and co will surely be looking to take advantage of. I have BRAZIL winning that match.

It's a different COLOMBIA-URUGUAY contest now that Luis Suarez won't be involved. Only thing to go off of is Uruguay's outing against Costa Rica which was poor to say the least. This is a Uruguay team that needs Suarez in order to win games, plain and simple. Facing Colombia won't help either. Colombia has been scary good this tournament. Strong defensively and they punish you for any little mistake on the defensive end. COLOMBIA my pick out of this game. Likely would have taken them even if Suarez was available.

That leaves a BRAZIL-COLOMBIA quarterfinal and I'm completely torn on this. Brazil don't lose games on home soil but I'm just not convinced they're a strong enough team. Reliant heavily on Neymar's individual talent and lose track of players defensively too easily. Colombia work their star players in to their squad's strategy which is why they're so successful. Going with my gut in this game and will say COLOMBIA emerge as the victor in this contest.

Advancing: Colombia
Also have a chance: Brazil

Quarter 2

Unlike the above grouping, there should be little in the way of surprises here.

France have arguably been the best team in the tournament in the group stages. Their shooting fell apart a bit against Ecuador but their defensive line has been a rock and Karim Benzema should probably be alone in the scoring lead this tournament. Nigeria have stretched teams vertically with their speed and power up front but won't have that luxury against this French team. Enyeama will have to be spectacular in the Nigerian goal for them to have a shot in this one. FRANCE to beat Nigeria.

Similar situation in the other game, Algeria go up against a German side that has yet to play to their potential in this tournament. Algeria use their speed up high to get offensive chances and while Germany can be exploited defensively by quickness, their organization and shape will be tough to overcome for Algeria. More concerningly for the Africans though is Germany's ability to pick teams apart in the offensive third. The USA was the only team to hold up well against the German attack and Algeria isn't them. GERMANY in a comfortable win.

That sets up a gigantic clash between France and Germany in the quarterfinals. I think there's only one potential game that can match the hype and intrigue of this game and that would be a Brazil-Argentina final. If/when this match occurs it will likely be the longest game preview I've written. Won't look too closely at it here as it deserves proper attention. I would still take Germany in this match but that could change in a heartbeat.

Advancing: Germany
Also have a chance: France

Quarter 3

Certainly looks different from what I had predicted. I only had one of these 4 teams in the right slot and I didn't have either Costa Rica or Greece in the picture at all.

Right off the bat, Netherlands could not have asked for a better group of teams in this quarter. This is about as easy as a knockout round can get for a team. Granted it's the Netherlands and history tells me they may find a way to mess this up but this is a relative walk in to the semifinals for them.

Biggest concern for the Dutch has to be their first game. Mexico gave up just 1 goal in the group stages and that came in garbage time of their final match against Costa Rica. Mexico area phenomenal defensive team but they'll be put to the test against these Dutch strikers. van Persie and Robben are the top scoring duo in this tournament with 6 goals in 5 man-games (van Persie was suspended against Chile). When you have two players in form that are averaging over a goal per game EACH, you have a great chance of winning any game you play in. I see it being close and I see it being low-scoring but I don't see Mexico being on top at the end. NETHERLANDS to win.

It's always nice to see underdogs succeed and one of Costa Rica and Greece will find themselves in the quarterfinals. As a fan of quality soccer though, my face fell when Giorgos Samaras hit that penalty kick and ensured this match would become a thing. Greece are near intolerable to watch play. Game inevitably gets bogged down and slow frustrates opponents in to trying wild chances on goal that are never going to succeed. Costa Rica started the tournament on a tear before coming back to Earth in their match with England. I still believe their attacking initiative is superior and their defence near equal to that of Greece's. Combine that with better goalkeeping and COSTA RICA should advance from this match.

I sort of gave it away in my preface but I have NETHERLANDS winning in the quarterfinals. Same 2-3-5 formation as Costa Rica but Netherlands simply have better players and better execution in all aspects of the game. No need to overthink this one. FWIW, I would take Mexico over both Costa Rica and Greece should that be the quarterfinal match.

Advancing: Netherlands
Also have a chance: Mexico

Quarter 4

Outside of the CONMEBOL derby happening above, this is the most fascinating of the quarters to me because it's the only one where I see a scenario in which all 4 teams can get out of here.

Argentina-Switzerland is an interesting stylistic matchup. Argentina with the dynamic attacking offence and a really shaky central defence. Switzerland sort of an enigma this tournament, good at everything but not great in anything. If Argentina can step up defensively then I think they're in the driver's seat but I'm not ready to count Switzerland out just yet. My pick for now is ARGENTINA, but I may revisit that come game preview time.

Belgium and USA are incredibly similar style-wise which will either make it a fascinating tactical battle or 90+ minutes of drudgery. Personnel-wise, Belgium have the advantage in every facet of the game. But they just haven't looked very strong this tournament. Not the quick passing and runs that we expected from them and shaky in the back, particularly out wide. The U.S. aren't flashy but they trust their system and most importantly for them it works. Of all the Round of 16 games, this one screams PENALTY KICKS to me. I think whether it gets to that or not, BELGIUM wins but they aren't looking like the potential champion the way they were pegged prior to the tournament.

FWIW, I would likely take ARGENTINA over either Belgium or the USA in the quarterfinals. Things will get interesting though if Switzerland manage to beat Argentina. Regardless of whether their opponent is Belgium or the USA, I think any of those 3 teams could beat the other on any day.

Advancing: Argentina
Also have a chance: Everyone

FINALS

In my little exercise here, this is what I have come up with for semifinals.

The top matchup will be as big a test to Germany's formational strength and organization as anything. Germany have committed more turnovers then usual in this tournament and I feel no other team can better take advantage of that then Colombia. Colombia have been the best counter-attacking team in this tournament and are good enough defensively to hold up Germany. Being played on the home continent, I'm going away from my pre-tournament pick and saying COLOMBIA will emerge from this game.

The home advantage is to be considered in the second game as well (No European team has ever won in the Americas) but frankly I think Argentina will be a bit lucky to make it this far. Weak on defence and Messi has been completely shouldering the load in the goal-scoring department. Netherlands were expected to be in rebuild mode this tournament but they are more then capable of neutralizing Argentina's offence and have the best scoring tandem in the tournament. NETHERLANDS to advance to their second straight final.

Predicting third-place games is always a crapshoot. In my scenario, I'll take Germany, who have finished top 3 in each of the last 3 World Cups.

This leads me to my NETHERLANDS-COLOMBIA final. Personnel-wise, it's a wash in midfield and goal. Netherlands forwards I would give an advantage to against Colombia's defence, but I feel the Dutch can hold up against James Rodriguez and company with their defensive discipline. Yes, that's right folks. I have the NETHERLANDS finally getting over the hump and winning their first World Cup, having lost in 3 previous finals.

Below is my complete prediction:

Questions? Comments? Want to call me a raging lunatic because <insert team> <went too far/didn't go far enough>? Let me know!

All-Group Teams: Group F

Here's my pick for best XI in Group F. As always, let me know if you feel I overlooked anything.

All-Group F XI

 

Also Considered:

Argentina: Mascherano
Bosnia: Dzeko, Begovic, Hajrovic
Iran: Ghoochannejhad, Dejagah, A. Haghighi
Nigeria: Onazi, Ambrose

Game 41 Recap: Nigeria 2-3 Argentina

NIGERIA 2-3 ARGENTINA

Well that was fun. Argentina and Nigeria alone equalled the goal tally for the entire group entering today, and Argentina came out the victor in an entertaining game that was enough for both sides to advance to the knockout round.

Lionel Messi opened the scoring for Argentina before everyone was even settled in their seats. A long lobbed pass found Angel di Maria whose shot caught the post twice as well as Vincent Enyeama's back before caroming out in to the penalty area. Nigeria had collapsed on to their line though and it was a straightforward finish for Messi who hammered it in to the top of goal for the early lead.

Nigeria weren't waiting around to respond though. Just a minute later, Ahmed Musa was played down the left wing and beat Pablo Zabaleta to the inside before curling a shot around Sergio Romero and inside the far post. It was great run by Musa and a fantastic shot to put Nigeria right back in the game.

Argentina continued to attack at high-tempo in what was their best game of the tournament so far. Higuain nearly found the lead again in the 9th minute as he beat Enyeama outside his goal but left himself little angle to shoot and put his strike in to the outer netting. Marcos Rojo later in the half was able to get a head to a cross in front of goal but deflected just wide.

Just before halftime, the Messi show started again. Denied in the 44th minute by Enyeama on a free kick, Messi found himself with another spot kick from similar range in injury time. He made no mistake on this one, floating the ball over the wall and in to the top corner as a bemused Enyeama could only watch and dig the ball out of his goal.

Nigeria came out of halftime determined not to be denied in this game. Emmanuel Emenike held up  a long ball enough to flick it off to Musa on a fast break. Musa calmly put the ball away as Sergio Romero guessed wrong and it was 2-2 on the strength of braces from both Messi and Musa.

Not unlike Nigeria in the opening minutes though, Argentina were quick to respond. Enyeama did well to punch away a long Angel di Maria shot, but the ensuing corner kick fell on to the knee of Rojo and flicked home despite Rojo not being prepared to make the finish.

Nigeria found themselves short on chances the balance of the match but came close to tying for a third time on two occasions. John Obi Mikel found himself on the ball goalside in the penalty area but tried to chip across for a teammate and the play was wasted. Had room to shoot on the play.

And late in the game, Musa again went flying downfield on a break but could not beat Zabaleta on this occasion and shot was blocked and cleared away.

Nigeria needed a point to secure advancement in this game but Iran's loss to Bosnia assured they will go through regardless. Both sides will carry injury concerns forward from this game. Sergio Aguero limped off to injury midway through the first half and Michel Babatunde appeared to break his arm after it was struck by a shot from teammate Ogenyi Onazi.

Goals

Nigeria: Ahmed Musa (4', 47')
Argentina: Lionel Messi (3', 45+1'), Marcos Rojo (50')

Discipline

Nigeria: Kenneth Omeruo (Yellow 48'), Juwon Oshaniwa (Yellow 51')
Argentina: N/A

Man of the Match

Easily Lionel Messi. Has somehow had a quiet tournament despite 4 goals in 3 matches and being tied for the scoring lead with Barcelona teammate Neymar. Scored two first-half goals in leading the way for Argentina. Easy cleanup on the first goal but it was a brilliant free kick for the second which had Vincent Enyeama completely fooled in goal.

Key Moment

Up 3-2 and holding on to the slim lead in the second half, Argentina found themselves in a bad position on another Ahmed Musa break in the 79th minute. Completely turned around by Musa, Pablo Zabaleta was able to recover his run and made a magnificent stretched block to prevent Musa from what likely would have been a hat trick and a 3-3 tie.

What we learned from Nigeria

Gave up too many free runs defensively. With a France date looming that is something they have to address. Used their speed well up front though and have an absolute gem of a centre forward in Emenike. Didn't score in this game but time and again was able to hold the ball up and create chances for his teammates. Strong offensive showing but have many questions to answer in their own end.

What we learned from Argentina

That's what people expect from them around the opponent penalty area. 13 shots on goal in the game and created offence from all over the field with a number of different players. Zabaleta and Rojo strong on the wings but Garay and Fernandez did nothing to assuage fears about their defending. Tons of time and space for Nigeria to operate in the middle of the field and that's a weakness other teams will look to exploit in the knockout round.

Going Forward 

Bosnia's win against Iran rendered this game somewhat meaningless as both teams advance to the Round of 16. Argentina's win gave them the group and also allowed them to escape what looks to be the tougher side of the knockout round bracket. Argentina will likely find themselves up against Ecuador or Switzerland in their next match. Nigeria will be satisfied to get out of the group for the first time since 1998. Their joy and run in this tournament may be ending soon though. They're looking at France in their next match.

Game 41 Starting Lineups (Nigeria vs. Argentina)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups below:

No change from either team since last match.

Nigeria

 

Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Chigozie Agbim (#21), Austin Ejide (#16)

Defenders: Azubuike Egwuekwe(#6), Godfrey Oboabona (#14), Kunle Odunlami (#12)

Midfielders: Ramon Azeez (#15), Reuben Gabriel (#4), Ejike Uzoenyi (#3)

Forwards: Shola Ameobi (#23), Victor Moses (#15), Uche Nwofor (#19), Michael Uchebo (#20)


Argentina



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Mariano Andujar (#21), Agustin Orion (#12)

Defenders: Jose Maria Basanta (#23), Hugo Campagnaro (#3), Martin Demichelis (#15)

Midfielders: Ricardo Alvarez (#19), Lucas Biglia (#6), Augusto Fernandez (#13), Enzo Perez (#8), Maxi Rodriguez (#11)

Forwards: Ezequiel Lavezzi (#22), Rodrigo Palacio (#18)

Game 41 Preview: Nigeria vs. Argentina

NIGERIA vs. ARGENTINA

 Date: June 25, 2014

Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 4-1-1 Argentina

Last Match: 2011 Friendly. Argentina def. Nigeria 3-1.

Line: Argentina -200

Group F Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Nigeria (44th), Argentina (5th)

Managers: Stephen Keshi (NGA), Alejandro Sabella (ARG)

Captains: Vincent Enyeama (NGA), Lionel Messi (ARG)

World Cup Appearances: 5 (NGA), 16 (ARG)

Best Finish: Nigeria (2x Round of 16, Last in 1998), Argentina (2x Champions, Last in 1986)

Qualifying Records: Nigeria (5-0-3, GF: 11, GA: 4), Argentina (9-2-5, GF: 35, GA: 15)

Previous Game Results

Nigeria

June 16th - Nigeria tied Iran 0-0

June 21st - Nigeria def. Bosnia 1-0

Argentina

June 15th - Argentina def. Bosnia 2-1
June 21st - Argentina def. Iran 1-0 

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Nigeria: John Obi Mikel (Yellow Card), Godfrey Oboabona (Probable - Ankle)
Argentina: Marcos Rojo (Yellow Card)

Overview

Nigeria and Argentina meet in their final group match in Porto Alegre. The closest host city to the Argentine border, it promises to be raucous pro-Argentina crowd as they look to top Group F with a perfect 9 point record.

While Argentina are already through, Nigeria have not yet locked up their spot in the Round of 16. Needing at least a point in this match to guarantee advancement, watch for Nigeria to try and take the action to an Argentina team that hasn't been overly convincing with their play so far this tournament.

Nigeria turned in their best performance in recent memory in a 1-0 victory over Bosnia. It was a coming out party internationally for striker Emmanuel Emenike. His size and speed was too much for the Bosnian defence to handle and Nigeria's success today may be dependent on his ability to cause the same trouble for Argentina's central defenders.

Argentina meanwhile will be hoping they can get some contributions from their strikers that aren't named Lionel Messi. No goals have been scored this tournament from the likes of Higuain, Aguero or di Maria, and Messi has had to bail out Argentina with second-half goals in both group games so far.

In the bizarre world of FIFA advancement scenarios, there is an extant possibility in this match and the Iran/Bosnia one happening concurrently that a draw of lots will be required to determine second-place in this group. If Nigeria are to lose by 1 goal, while Iran defeats Bosnia by 1 and scores 1 more goal then Nigeria, the two teams will tie for second and be even on every tiebreaker. Keep an eye on that when watching.

Personnel

In the Nigerian Third: Advantage certainly goes to Argentina but how big an advantage depends entirely on how they want to attack this team. Iran got chances by penetrating the central defence with Ghoochannejhad. Bosnia stayed on the periphery mostly and rained shots from distance. Neither scored but Iran certainly looked the more dangerous. Argentina can maximize success by trying to get the ball deep in the penalty area. They haven't so far this tournament though. Advantage: Argentina.

In the Midfield: Some uncharacteristic giveaways in the Midfield by Argentina this tournament and they'll face a Nigerian team that is able to create pressure in the midfield with their size and skill of their holding midfielders. Argentina haven't been terribly enterprising going forward and will be interesting to see how they react to Nigeria closing them down quickly. Advantage: Argentina, slightly.

In the Argentine Third: Argentina are always good for at least one horrendous blunder in every game. I also think that Nigeria have some young forwards that are able to punish Argentina for their mistakes. Emenike will be a handful for them in the back. Better play from Romero in goal is helping them this tournament though. Advantage: Even.

Goalkeeping: Nigeria is the only squad remaining with a clean sheet for the tournament. That's no accident either. Vincent Enyeama has great instincts and reflexes to go with excellent positioning. Has hands full with Argentina's strikers but keeps Nigeria in every game. Advantage: Nigeria.

Nigeria will win if:

Keep Argentina on the outside of your penalty area, get the ball to Emenike on the fast break and do not let Messi go left on the ball. Nigeria won't win possession or field position battle and that's ok provided they keep Argentina as far from their goal as possible. And when Messi has the ball, you have to close him down or at least prevent him from creating space to his left. Ermin Bicakcic and Reza Ghoochannejhad did and ask them how that worked out. Emenike is the biggest threat to score and if he gets a head of steam, no defender on Argentina will be able to stop him.

Argentina will win if:

Put more pressure on the Nigerian goal. They were too comfortable passing the ball around and sending in long crosses against Iran when they collapsed defensively. Nigeria won't have quite as tight a lid on their penalty area but Argentina can't beat them if they don't try to penetrate and attack them. Already through to the knockout round, no better time to create more quality scoring chances, even if you have to loosen things up defensively.

Prediction

Nigeria get enough pressure with their speed and power to get a few chances and pick up a goal. Messi again bails out Argentina late for the winner.

Argentina 2-1 Nigeria

Game 27 Recap: Argentina 1-0 Iran

ARGENTINA 1-0 IRAN

On the verge of possibly their greatest result in soccer history, Iran had a tie against Argentina snatched away at the close by the left foot of Lionel Messi.

A stellar defensive performance throughout that had Argentina shaking their heads and throwing their hands in the air for much of the game, Iran left the best player in the world a fraction too much room outside their penalty area and Messi made them pay.

As expected, this was a game dominated in possession by Argentina (77%) as Iran often put all players behind the ball in a furious effort to defend their own penalty area from the dangerous Argentine strikers.

First real chance for Argentina came in the 22nd minute. One of the rare forays they were able to make through Iran's lines, Sergio Aguero's shot curled around Gonzalo Higuain but was saved and knocked away by a leaping Alireza Haghighi in goal. Haghighi saw his goal threatened further off of set pieces in the first half but multiple uncontested headers shot high and wide of his goal leading to a 0-0 halftime line.

Focused on defending, it was Iran that was the closer to scoring as the second half progressed. Pejman Montazeri sent a long cross in to Reza Ghoochannejhad who had a free header on goal but sent the chance directly at Sergio Romero who turned it away. Minutes later, Ashkan Dejagah found the end of yet another Montazeri cross but Romero was able to jump and get enough of a hand on the ball to tip it over the bar.

Argentina seemed to deflate as the half went on, clearly frustrated at their inability to get shots on goal as well as another Iran rush that nearly led to a Ghoochannejhad goal. But when they needed him the most, their captain stepped up in a big way.

1-on-1 with Ghoochannejhad outside the Iran penalty area, Messi made a slick move to his left and freed up just enough room to send a curling left-foot shot at the far post. The ball flew past the diving Haghighi and bulged the net to give Argentina the win and hand a crushing loss to an Iran team that had done enough to earn a tie.

Goals

Argentina: Lionel Messi (90+1')

Iran: N/A

Discipline

Argentina: N/A

Iran: Javad Nekounam (Yellow 53'), Masoud Shojaei (Yellow 72')

Man of the Match

Lionel Messi named Man of the Match and hard to argue when the best player in the world scores the winner in injury time. I felt Messi was a bit disconnected from this game. Started on the wing and didn't get much going. Switched with Higuain eventually and was in the centre but had even less room to operate in the Iran defence. Sergio Romero made a few key saves when called upon and was probably Argentina's most important player in this game.

Key Moment

In injury time and with Argentina staring a devastating result in the face, Lionel Messi freed up some room towards the middle of the field and is curling shot got outside Reza Ghoochannejhad defending and inside the far post to give Argentina the late victory. Honourable mention to Sergio Romero for a great leaping save on Ashkan Dejagah in the 67th minute to prevent Iran from taking a 1-0 lead.

What we learned from Argentina

Torn between dismay at how poor their finishing was and reminding myself they were faced with an entire team parked in front of their goal. 2 biggest concerns: Still far too fancy in front of goal. Wasted a lot of shooting chances looking for the perfect play which absolutely isn't going to come with so many defenders back. And can anyone time a header on this squad? Time after time, Argentina sent balls in on set pieces only to see uncontested headers wasted.

What we learned from Iran

We knew their defence was good but there was a quesiton of how they would hold up against the pressure of a team like Argentina. It took a full-out defensive effort but they more then held their own and stifled Argentina for 90 minutes until Messi unleashed his strike. Will have to win their last game and can't park the bus like they did today but they'll be encouraged by the play of Dejagah and Ghoochannejhad again up front.

Going Forward 

Argentina's victory at the end puts them through to the knockout round and they've almost clinched first place in the group already. Iran waits to see the result of the next group game but they will absolutely have to win against Bosnia in order to escape the group.

Game 27 Starting Lineups (Argentina vs. Iran)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups below:

Argentina

2 changers for Argentina. Higuain and Gago are in for Rodriguez and Campagnaro



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Mariano Andujar (#21), Agustin Orion (#12)

Defenders: Jose Maria Basanta (#23), Hugo Campagnaro (#3), Martin Demichelis (#15)

Midfielders: Ricardo Alvarez (#19), Lucas Biglia (#6), Augusto Fernandez (#13), Enzo Perez (#8), Maxi Rodriguez (#11)

Forwards: Ezequiel Lavezzi (#22), Rodrigo Palacio (#18)

Iran

Shojaei for Heydari the only change.

 

Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Rahman Ahmadi (#1), Daniel Davari (#22)

Defenders: Ahmad Alenemeh (#17), Hashem Beikzadeh (#19), Steven Beitashour (#20), Hossein Mahini (#13)

Midfielders: Ghasem Haddadifar (#11), Reza Haghighi (#8), Khosro Heydari (#2),  Bakhtiar Rahmani (#18)

Forwards: Karim Ansarifard (#10), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (#9)

Game 27 Preview: Argentina vs. Iran

ARGENTINA vs. IRAN

 Date: June 21, 2014

Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 0-0-1

Last Match: 1977 Friendly. Argentina tied Iran 1-1 (ARG won 4-3 in PK's).

Line: Argentina -900

Group F Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Argentina (5th), Iran (43rd)

Managers: Alejandro Sabella (ARG), Carlos Queiroz (IRN)

Captains: Lionel Messi (ARG), Javad Nekounam (IRN)

World Cup Appearances: 16 (ARG), 4 (IRN)

Best Finish: Argentina (2x Champions, Last in 1986), Iran (Group Stage, Last in 2006)

Qualifying Records: Argentina (9-2-5, GF: 35, GA: 15), Iran (10-2-4, GF: 30, GA: 7)

Previous Game Results

Argentina

June 15th - Argentina def. Bosnia 2-1

Iran

June 16th - Iran tied Nigeria 0-0

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Argentina: Marcos Rojo (Yellow Card)

Iran: Andranik Teymourian (Yellow Card)

Overview

With their toughest group match out of the way, Argentina will look to secure a knockout round position and inch closer to locking first place up as they take on Iran in Belo Horizonte. Still in contention for the second position in the group, Iran may have to settle for escaping with their dignity intact against a vastly superior Argentine side.

Argentina started in an unconventional 5-3-2/3-5-2 hybrid in their first game against Bosnia and it executed poorly at best. They switched to a 4-3-3 formation at halftime and it seemed to work wonders for their offence. It also allowed Argentina to get their best players on the field as Gonzalo Higuain inexplicably started the game on the bench. Look for Argentina to go with their big three of Higuain, Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero up front an find the goal early and often against this Iranian team.

Iran brings a defence-first approach to the game and boasts one of the top defensive records in Asia. But no team in Asia poses the offensive threat that Argentina does. No Iranian defender saw action last time they were in the World Cup and for a back line composed primarily of domestic club players in Iran, they could end up shell-shocked against the depth and strength of Argentina.

Would anticipate seeing a similar lineup from both teams with Argentina's squad looking more like the second-half version from the Bosnia game.

Personnel

In the Argentine Third: Reza Ghoochannejhad in particular posed a problem for the Nigerian back line in particular but far too much quality in this game for Iran to handle on attack. Advantage: Argentina.

In the Midfield: Bosnia clogged the middle of the field and made life difficult for Argentina to control this section of the pitch. Argentina should move to their traditional 4-3-3 as opposed to the 5-3-2 they employed against Bosnia and have some more success working the midfield against a passive Iran squad. Advantage: Argentina.

In the Iranian Third: It was tough sledding for Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero against Bosnia. The game opened up for them in the second half though once Higuain was inserted in the game. Regardless of how they line up, the Iranian defenders have never seen a lineup like this before. Advantage: Argentina.

Goalkeeping: Sergio Romero looked improved against Bosnia despite surrendering a rather cheap goal. Alireza Haghighi had some control issues in his penalty area did get the clean sheet against Nigeria. Romero on experience alone. Advantage: Argentina

Argentina will win if:

Shoot early and as often as possible. I felt Argentina were trying to be a bit too cute in the offensive third against Bosnia and wasted scoring chances as a result. They should be able to carve up the Iran central defence and get all sorts of shots at the Iranian goal. It's a relatively inexperienced goalkeeper in front of them, take you shots on the scoring chances and you'll have time to do the fancy stuff when you're up 3 goals.

Iran will win if:

Argentina show up to the wrong stadium and have to forfeit? Best hope for Iran is what I fully expect them to do. 9 guys behind the ball around their penalty area and hope they can repel everything Argentina can throw at them. Long balls to Ghoochannejhad up top when they can and see if he and Ashkan Dejagah can get something going or get some long shots on the shaky Romero in Argentina's net.

Prediction

Too good offensively not to be successful in this match. Only question for me is how many goals Argentina will win by.

Argentina 4-0 Iran