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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Game 39 Preview: Japan vs. Colombia

JAPAN vs. COLOMBIA


 Date: June 24, 2014
Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 1-0-1 Colombia
Last Match: 2007 Friendly. Japan tied Colombia 0-0.
Line: Colombia +120
Group C Preview here.
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Japan (46th), Colombia (8th)
Managers: Alberto Zaccheroni (JPN), Jose Pekerman (COL)
Captains: Makoto Hasebe (JPN), Mario Yepes (COL)
World Cup Appearances: 5 (JPN), 5 (COL)
Best Finish: Japan (2x Round of 16, Last in 2010), Colombia (Round of 16, 1990)
Qualifying Records: Japan (8-3-3, GF: 30, GA: 8), Colombia (9-4-3, GF: 27, GA: 13)

Previous Game Results

Japan

Colombia

June 14th - Colombia def. Greece 3-0
June 19th - Colombia def. Ivory Coast 2-1

Rosters
































Injuries/Discipline

Japan: Makoto Hasebe (Yellow Card), Masato Morishige (Yellow Card), Maya Yoshida (Yellow Card)
Colombia: Carlos Bacca (Doubtful - Leg), Carlos Sanchez (Yellow Card)

Overview

Japan face a must-win game in their group finale as they take on group leaders Colombia in Cuiaba. And even a victory in what should be a very pro-Colombian environment may not be enough to send the Blue Samurai through to the knockout round.

Japan started their tournament with great promise, opening with a 1-0 first half against Ivory Coast. They've derailed since though, allowing Ivory Coast to come back and win that match before a devastating scoreless draw with Greece that may have doomed both teams to an early exit. Japan will have to find a way to get back to what works quickly against a team that is a darkhorse to win the tournament.

Colombia have already clinched advancement from this group and barring a pair of shock results today have already locked up first place in the group. They're expected to rest a few players but should keep a similar lineup to the one that has put them atop the group so far in this tournament.

Japan have gone with a 4-2-3-1 formation this tournament and should keep that today. They'll be counting on better striker play though to provide outlets for their midfielders in attack. Colombia have gone with a 4-4-2 but may vary that depending on what personnel they decide to employ today.

Colombia could also make World Cup history by starting Faryd Mondragon in goal. If Mondragon does get the call at age 43, he will be the oldest person to play at a World Cup ever.

Personnel

In the Japanese Third: Japan should be in full attack mode which is a problem for their back line. Handled Greece and Ivory Coast (minus 5 minutes) well but have yet to deal with a team that has the speed and creativity of Colombia. Last major tournament was the 2013 Confederations Cup and this defensive line got lit up by 3 fast offences to a tune of 3 goals per game. Advantage: Colombia

In the Midfield: Japan have mixed periods of good ball control with horrendous turnovers this tournament. Colombia a team poised to take advantage of turnovers but may dial back the midfield pressure a bit considering they're already through to the knockout round. Advantage: Even.

In the Colombian Third: No one has figured this back line out yet in this tournament. Japan have had unreliable striker play but have a load of talent in the attacking midfield, particularly with Keisuke Honda. That may play to their strength as Colombia's central defenders won't be pursuing too far out of their line so they could have room to operate in the central midfield. Can't count on an offensive explosion from your midfield alone though. Advantage: Even.

Goalkeeping: Rumour is Ospina may sit while Faryd Mondragon starts for Colombia. If Mondragon plays, he will set the record for oldest player to see action at a World Cup (age 43). Kawashima hasn't been sharp but I can only assume he's up to the task against Mondragon. If Ospina plays, Advantage: Colombia. If Mondragon plays, Advantage: Japan.

Japan will win if:

Flood the Colombian penalty area with their attacking midfielders. Colombia have speed everywhere except for central defence. Japan are loaded with guys that can attack with pace on and off the ball. In a must-win game, they have to turn the pressure up and exploit what they can. In this game, that is by attacking the heart of the Colombian back line.

Colombia will win if:

Control the centre of the field, in both ends of the pitch. Japan don't pose a true aerial threat to Colombia's goal so forcing them outside in your own end is the recipe to prevent them from scoring. Colombia will have their run of the game on the flanks against a Japanese team but need to be able to get where they want in the middle of the pitch to ensure they can finish off the chances afforded to them by their wingers.

Prediction

Japan should be in full attack mode while I expect Colombia to sit back a bit and weather the storm. Japan get enough pressure to score but extend themselves too far for the win and pay the price against the lightning-quick Colombian counter-attack.

Colombia 2-1 Japan

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