September Review: North America-Group 4

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Canada def. Saint Lucia 4-1 in Toronto, Canada on September 2, 2011

• Canada Goals-Josh Simpson (6',61'), Dwayne De Rosario (50'), Will Johnson (90+1')
• Saint Lucia Goals-Tremain Paul (7')

Nothing unexpected in this result. Being Canadian, this is one of the few games I get to watch with a decent feed rather then scrambling to find something online so I can provide some rudimentary analysis here. In a nutshell, nice job by Canada of breaking down the opposing defence but need to find a way to notch more goals, a long-standing problem they've possessed. For Saint Lucia, they faced a clear dearth of talent but were very undisciplined on defence, often losing track of where the Canadian wingers were on the field leading to a number of fast breaks on goal for Canada. Lack of talent can be mediated by intelligent on-field play. Saint Lucia was unable to do that in this game, looking overwhelmed as soon as they hit the field.

Game 2-Puerto Rico tied Saint Kitts and Nevis 0-0 in Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis on September 2, 2011

Saint Kitts needed a win this game to keep pace with Canada. Unfortunately, results don't come to those who aren't willing to work for it. Neither side looked comfortable in this game and not a single goal could be managed by either side despite serious deficiencies on the defensive sides of the ball. In a group where both teams need a ton of wins, this is the worst result imaginable.

Game 3-Saint Kitts and Nevis def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia on September 6, 2011

• Saint Kitts and Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (7'), Jevon Francis (12'), Orlando Mitchum (15'), Devaughn Elliott (44')
• Saint Lucia Goals-Zaine Pierre (65'), Cliff Valcin (84')

4 first-half goals by Saint Kitts put this one in the bag at half. Credit to Saint Lucia though for not folding when it would have been very easy to do so. Instead they were able to recover and record a 2-0 second-half scoreline. 2 things to take away from this result. Firstly, Saint Kitts is a dangerous team in this group. Puerto Rico result notwithstanding, they showed incessant pressure in the first half and were rewarded with a flurry of goals, scoring the same amount as Canada did on Saint Lucia in their game. And secondly, Saint Lucia has some fight in it. Not going to advance from the group but they have the potential to maybe grab a surprise win somewhere down the road.

Game 4-Canada def. Puerto Rico 3-0 in Bayamon, Puerto Rico on September 6, 2011

• Canada Goals-Iain Hume (42'), Simeon Jackson (84'), Tosaint Ricketts (90+3')

Another solid win for Canada although they had to fight for this one. Struggling with oppressive heat and a poor playing surface, they kept their composure and finished the game with a 3-0 victory even though the braces came very late in the game. Of most concern for Canada will be their breakdowns on defence which allowed Puerto Rico some probing runs in to the Canadian penalty area. If Canada had been playing a team with some actual scoring touch, this result could have been far different.

Thoughts

Canada-A couple kinks they need to iron out but this is the time to do it. With repeat matches against Saint Lucia and Puerto Rico coming up, Canada should be able to grab another pair of wins without having to over-exert itself. Defensive zone responsibility and (as always) finishing ability will be the areas of improvement for the Canadian side in those games.

Puerto Rico-Had some high hopes coming in to this group but a loss and a draw early on have them on the brink of elimination already. Puerto Rico will be exceptionally disappointed with their lack of offensive burst so far in qualfiying. With zero goals scored in 2 qualifying matches, they are one of two teams in CONCACAF qualifying with no goals for in 180 minutes.

Saint Kitts and Nevis-I'm curious to see how they'll match up with Canada. If it's the team that drew with Puerto Rico, they'll get blow out. If it's the team that went 4-0 in a half against Saint Lucia then it will be interesting. Without question though, they need 2 wins in October. Being within 3 points of Canada before they meet is a must for this team if they want to advance and 2 wins is likely the only way they'll achieve that mark.

Saint Lucia-I really like the heart and determination they've shown in their 2 games. Obviously, they're outmatched in this group but the difference between this team and others in that situation is the effort they display. Many teams would simply fold and run out the clock in games but not Saint Lucia. They appear to be treating these games as learning experiences which is would they need to do. Playing stronger teams will make you better if you're willing to acknowledge that fact and play 100%. Saint Lucia is doing that.

Going Forward

On October 7th, Canada is traveling to Saint Lucia while Puerto Rico hosts Saint Kitts and Nevis. On October 11th, Puerto Rico travels to Canada while Saint Kitts will host Saint Lucia. Important game of note is the PR-Saint Kitts game on the 7th. Saint Lucia is likely looking at a pair of losses and Canada should handle Puerto Rico at home. For Saint Kitts, that game on the 7th is of the utmost importance. Win and they stay within a game of Canada. Lose, and it's a probably 5-point deficit with just 3 games to play. Not good.

Both Saint Lucia and Puerto Rico can be mathematically eliminated on the 7th. Saint Lucia will be eliminated with a LOSS to Canada while Puerto Rico would be eliminated with a LOSS and a Canada WIN.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts

Actual:

Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts