Game 51 Recap: Netherlands 2-1 Mexico

NETHERLANDS 2-1 MEXICO

For the second straight day, the early Round of 16 game has failed to disappoint and sent one team home in just the worst possible fashion.

In a game played in near-unbearable heat, it was the Netherlands who managed a stunning late comeback against Mexico to advance to the quarterfinals for the second straight tournament.

CBC reported mid-broadcast that the temperature on the field in the shade was 39 degrees Celsius or 102 degrees Fahrenheit. That wasn't taking in to account humidity, sunlight or players running for miles during the game. It was also the first match in Brazil where pre-determined cooling breaks occurred around the 30th and 75th minutes of the match.

Mexico came out in their usual 5-3-2 look but it was a bizarre tactical change for the Dutch. Having played a 5-3-2 formation predominantly themselves, the Dutch opted for a 4-3-3 look in this game. That backfired in a big way when holding midfielder Nigel de Jong was forced to leave 9 minutes in with an injury.

This was a first half dominated by Mexico. Time and again they found ways to get through the Dutch defenders, using their speed to stretch the field in all directions. Hector Herrera had the first good chance in the 17th minute but could not settle the ball in the penalty area and tapped it just wide.

Carlos Salcido, playing in place of the suspended Jose Vazquez unleashed a wicked moving strike from 30+ yards away but Jasper Cillessen managed to awkwardly deflect it wide of the target. Giovani dos Santos got his own chance near halftime but Cillessen bravely challenged and was able to kick the ball away from goal.

All Mexico to start the second half as well and they were quickly rewarded. Giovani dos Santos got his foot on an errant Dutch clearance and his curling shot across his body from 30 yards eluded Cillessen and snuck inside the post. It was the nightmare scenario for the Netherlands as Daley Blind, filling in for de Jong in central midfield could not contain dos Santos. Cannot fathom that goal occurring with the veteran de Jong in that spot.

The Mexican goal woke up the Netherlands. They turned up the pressure offensively and were denied an equalizer on yet another fantastic Ochoa save. Arjen Robben's corner kick fell to Stefan de Vrij in the 6 yard box but his redirection went off a perfectly positioned Ochoa and out off the post. No reaction but just ideal placement in the goal led to another highlight for Ochoa in this tournament.

No let up for the Dutch though. Wesley Sneijder's shot from the top of the area was deflected just wide and Robben's shot from the side of goal was smartly turned away by Ochoa as well. Netherlands got past the Mexican defence in the 85th minute but again Ochoa was there to deny Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's flick although the offside flag was up.

Minutes away from the quarterfinals, disaster struck for Mexico. Another Robben delivery fell to Huntelaar who headed entirely away from goal, but fortunately for the Dutch, it fell straight to Sneijder. Maligned by Dutch supporters for his performance this tournament, Sneijder made no mistake launching the ball inside the post to give the Dutch the tie and crush the hopes of Mexican supporters in the stadium.

The late drama wasn't done there though. 4 minutes later in injury time, Robben streaked down the wing for the umpteenth time in this game. Almost past the end line, Robben cut back and was hauled down by Rafael Marquez in the penalty area. Mexico questioned the decision but it looked a legitimate foul and may have been a make-up call after a questionable foul on Robben went Mexico's way in the first half.

Given a penalty kick in the closing stages, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar was given the task of winning the game for Netherlands. Only in as a late substitute for Robin van Persie, Huntelaar finished things off perfectly, tucking the ball inside the post to give Netherlands the 2-1 lead and the victory.

Goals

Netherlands: Wesley Sneijder (88'), Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (90+4')

Mexico: Giovani dos Santos (48')

Discipline

Netherlands: N/A

Mexico: Paul Aguilar (Yellow 69'), Rafael Marquez (Yellow 90+2'), Andres Guardado (90+4')

Man of the Match

A losing effort but fans voted Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa Man of the Match again. Part of that is he was deserving but part of that also may have been no time to change votes with the Dutch comeback. I'm fine with Ochoa getting it, I'm fine with Robben getting it, I'm fine with Huntelaar or Sneijder getting it. Ochoa's positioning in this game was superb again denying de Vrij and Robben from close range. Little he could do on either Dutch goals.

Key Moment

Mexico went defensive in the last third of the game looking to protect their lead. It almost worked until Wesley Sneijder volleyed home an errant header from Huntelaar. It was all Netherlands from that goal on and Mexico's substitutions gave them little in the way of an attacking presence to counter it. The winning Dutch goal came before extra time but no doubt they would win once Sneijder tied things up.

What we learned from Netherlands

Felt they overthought their strategy in this one. Tried to go 4-3-3 and paid the price when de Jong went out injured. Hamstrung in to playing Blind in midfield and Kuyt as a left back. Need to get back to what got them here. 5-3-2 is their bread and butter right now. Never quit on the game despite the oppressive heat and don't think many teams can match the Dutch heart. This team wasn't ready to leave Brazil yet and that is ultimately what won out for them today.

What we learned from Mexico

Did everything right for about 75 minutes. Pressured the Dutch in midfield, kept them away from goal and took advantage of attacking opportunities. Then it all fell apart. Absolutely hated that they fell back in to a passive shell defensively. Chile did the same and Netherlands completely dismantled it. Can't afford to give the Dutch time on the ball and Mexico did. As a result they're heading home early again.

Going Forward

I said in my knockout round predictions, this was the key game in this quarter of the bracket. Regardless of opponent, Netherlands will have an easier time in the quarterfinals then they did today. Gave me a huge scare after I picked them to win it all but won't back down from that now. Gamely challenged a good Mexican team and pulled it out in the end.

Crushing defeat for Mexico. Paul Carr of ESPN tweeted that Mexico have been eliminated from the World Cup knockout round now 4 times after having a lead in the elimination game. Don't know how to cope with that if you're a Mexican fan........Tequila.

Game 51 Starting Lineups (Netherlands vs. Mexico)

Game Preview here.
Starting lineups below:

Netherlands

Bit of a wrinkle in personnel as neither Martins Indi or Janmaat in the lineup. Best approximation of formation below.



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Tim Krul (#23), Michel Vorm (#22)

Defenders: Terence Kongolo (#14), Bruno Martins Indi (#4), Daryl Janmaat (#7), Joel Veltman (#13)

Midfielders: Jordy Clasie (#16), Memphis Depay (#21), Leroy Fer (#18), Jonathan de Guzman (#8)

Forwards: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (#19), Jeremain Lens (#17)


Mexico

Salcido replaces the suspended Vazquez in only Mexican change.

 

Substitutes:


Goalkeepers: Jose de Jesus Corona (#1), Alfredo Talavera (#13)

Defenders: Miguel Angel Ponce (#16), Diego Reyes (#5)

Midfielders: Javier Aquino (#20), Isaac Brizuela (#17), Marco Fabian (#8), Carlos Pena (#21)

Forwards: Javier Hernandez (#14), Raul Jimenez (#9), Alan Pulido (#11)

Game 51 Preview: Netherlands vs. Mexico

NETHERLANDS vs. MEXICO
Round of 16 - Game 3

 Date: June 29, 2014

Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Estadio Castelao, Fortaleza

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 3-2-1 Netherlands

Last Match: 2010 Friendly. Netherlands def. Mexico 2-1.

Line: Netherlands EVEN

Group A Preview here.
Group B Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Netherlands (15th), Mexico (20th)

Managers: Louis van Gaal (NED), Miguel Herrera (MEX)

Captains: Robin van Persie (NED), Rafael Marquez (MEX)

World Cup Appearances: 10 (NED), 15 (MEX)

Best Finish: Netherlands (3x Runners-Up, Last in 2010), Mexico (2x Quarterfinals, Last in 1986)

Qualifying Records: Netherlands (9-0-1, GF: 34, GA: 5), Mexico (10-3-5, GF: 31, GA: 14)

Previous Game Results

Netherlands

June 13th - Netherlands def. Spain 5-1
June 18th - Netherlands def. Australia 3-2

June 23rd - Netherlands def. Chile 2-0

Mexico

June 13th - Mexico def. Cameroon 1-0
June 17th - Mexico tied Brazil 0-0
June 23rd - Mexico def. Croatia 3-1

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Netherlands: Daley Blind (Yellow Card), Jonathan de Guzman (Yellow Card), Stefan de Vrij (Yellow Card), Bruno Martins Indi (Probable - Head)
Mexico: Paul Aguilar (Yellow Card), Rafael Marquez (Yellow Card), Hector Moreno (Yellow Card), Jose Juan Vazquez (Suspended - Card Accumulation)

Overview

A pair of surprising teams so far at the 2014 World Cup take to the field in Fortaleza with a spot in the quarterfinals and perhaps further on the line.

One of the last teams to qualify for this tournament, Mexico have made waves with their group stage performance. Their defence has been nothing short of exceptional and has been bolstered by excellent goalkeeping from Guillermo Ochoa behind them. They will need those performances to continue today though. No team in the World Cup scored more goals in the group stage (10) than Netherlands did.

With a completely revamped back line, and having failed to get a point in Euro 2012, Netherlands was seen as a bit of a mystery in this tournament. Some didn't see them even escaping their group with Spain and Chile in the midst. But the Netherlands defence has been a bright spot and their attacking combo of Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie has been the most dangerous strike duo in the tournament. They will have their hands full against the Mexican defence that conceded 1 goal in the group stage, but no team is better equipped to break down Mexico then this one.

Both teams play a variation of the 3-5-2/5-3-2 formation that everyone loves this tournament. Both teams also tend to play their wing backs as attacking wingers when they're going forward.

Mexico have one selection concern going in to this match. Holding midfielder Jose Juan Vazquez is suspended for this game due to an accumulation of yellow cards in the group stage. The 26 year old has been a revelation this tournament in that role and whoever Mexico replaces him with will be a downgrade defensively as they will likely have to check Wesley Sneijder.

Netherlands come in to this game with their typical starting XI available. Robin van Persie has returned from his suspension and Bruno Martins Indi is likely to play after suffering a concussion in Netherlands' second group match.

Personnel

In the Dutch Third:The 3 central Dutch defenders of Vlaar, de Vrij and Martins Indi were expected to be a weak point this tournament but have been stellar at the back. They get a lot of support from their wing backs and Nigel de Jong but that trio has been a rock at the back. Mexico finally got their scoring going late in the Croatia game but that was largely due to Croatia abandoning defensive zone coverage. Reality is, Mexico have not been able to get consistent runs on the ball towards goal and have lacked finishing touch from top scorer in qualifying Oribe Peralta. They'll get balls in to this part of the field, but finishing them off is a much different story. Advantage: Netherlands.

In the Midfield: A bit of a wash in the central midfield, neither team overly aggressive defensively and both with playmakers. Mexico maybe a bit more dynamic offensively with Herrera and Guardado, Netherlands the better defensive team with Nigel de Jong. Think the key battle here is with the wing backs. Layun vs. Janmaat and Blind vs. Aguilar will determine where this part of the pitch is won. I like the Dutch backs offensive ability but they are also more susceptible to defensive lapses and allowing players behind them. Advantage: Even

In the Mexican Third: Don't know if Mexico is as capable here as they appear in this game. 3 great central defenders but not the speed to necessarily keep pace with Robben and van Persie. I think the Brazil game is key here. Mexico surrendered plenty of chances on goal to Neymar in particular but bad finishing and great goalkeeping held them in. That was once in a lifetime performance by Ochoa and don't know if that can be repeated against all the attacking options the Dutch have. Advantage: Netherlands.

Goalkeeping: Ochoa has been the goalkeeper of the tournament so far. Nothing wrong with Cillessen either although the way he handles the ball must be terrifying to Dutch fans. Advantage: Mexico.

Netherlands will win if:

Close down the attacking midfielders in the space above the penalty area and get the ball to Robben/van Persie on the break. One area that does concern me for the Dutch is the area above their own penalty area. Have found they do allow a gap there with space to operate and Mexico are great at  firing long-range shots from there. Have to close that down unless Cillessen wants to be in a shooting gallery. Offensively, Robben in particular is best with the ball at a full sprint. Look to the wings for Robben in particular on a counter-attack and they'll have plenty of room to work on the Mexican defence.

Mexico will win if:

Have to win the battle of the wing backs on either side of the field and find a way to mark all of Robben/van Persie/Sneijder. Mexico isn't likely to get offence going up the centre of the field today against de Jong and the back 3. But they will likely be able to get Layun and Aguilar behind Blind and Janmaat wide and can really stretch the field that way and create scoring chances. Defensively, there are 3 Dutch players that can all burn you in attack and need very little space to operate. Easier said then done but they all need to be marked at all times in your half. Shut down those 3 and this Dutch attack becomes non-existent.

Prediction

Mexico with too little teeth in attack to seriously harm the Dutch. My guess is they sit back defensively and force the Dutch to probe and keep them out of the penalty area. That didn't work for Chile though and that was without van Persie. Netherlands take this one in the second half.

Netherlands 2-0 Mexico

Knockout Round Predictions: Version II

You may remember that two weeks ago I posted my pre-tournament knockout round predictions. Here's what I had come up with:



That's compared with the actual bracket in the header.

Final tally on teams:

• 10 of 16 correct
• 8 of 16 in the correct slot

Dreadful in my opinion. Costa Rica, and the Iberian peninsula messed me up.

Anyway that's not the point of this post. Want to give an overview of the knockout round now that we actually know where everyone is slotted in. Have broken the bracket down in to 4 quarters and will then look at the semifinals/finals. REMINDER AS ALWAYS: I RESERVE JUDGMENT TO CHANGE THIS WHEN I DO GAME PREVIEWS. Without further ado:

Quarter 1

Yes, it appears that a CONMEBOL tournament has broken out in the midst of the World Cup. South American fans have to be thrilled to have 5 teams in the Round of 16. But with 4 in the same quarter, there's no more then 2 that can make the semifinals.

There are 2 constants in CONMEBOL soccer that I have observed. 1) Home field advantage means everything. Brazil would figure to have that advantage but there are plenty of visiting supporters from neighbouring countries at this tournament. 2) Expect the unexpected. On any given day, any of these four teams can beat the other.

In regard to BRAZIL-CHILE, I'm expecting goals and plenty of them. Both teams play fast-paced, sometimes irresponsible soccer but both love to attack. I'm tipping Brazil though due to how they match up personnel wise with Chile. Chile play a 3-man back line which can leave plenty of space in which opponents can operate. That's something Neymar, Oscar and co will surely be looking to take advantage of. I have BRAZIL winning that match.

It's a different COLOMBIA-URUGUAY contest now that Luis Suarez won't be involved. Only thing to go off of is Uruguay's outing against Costa Rica which was poor to say the least. This is a Uruguay team that needs Suarez in order to win games, plain and simple. Facing Colombia won't help either. Colombia has been scary good this tournament. Strong defensively and they punish you for any little mistake on the defensive end. COLOMBIA my pick out of this game. Likely would have taken them even if Suarez was available.

That leaves a BRAZIL-COLOMBIA quarterfinal and I'm completely torn on this. Brazil don't lose games on home soil but I'm just not convinced they're a strong enough team. Reliant heavily on Neymar's individual talent and lose track of players defensively too easily. Colombia work their star players in to their squad's strategy which is why they're so successful. Going with my gut in this game and will say COLOMBIA emerge as the victor in this contest.

Advancing: Colombia
Also have a chance: Brazil

Quarter 2

Unlike the above grouping, there should be little in the way of surprises here.

France have arguably been the best team in the tournament in the group stages. Their shooting fell apart a bit against Ecuador but their defensive line has been a rock and Karim Benzema should probably be alone in the scoring lead this tournament. Nigeria have stretched teams vertically with their speed and power up front but won't have that luxury against this French team. Enyeama will have to be spectacular in the Nigerian goal for them to have a shot in this one. FRANCE to beat Nigeria.

Similar situation in the other game, Algeria go up against a German side that has yet to play to their potential in this tournament. Algeria use their speed up high to get offensive chances and while Germany can be exploited defensively by quickness, their organization and shape will be tough to overcome for Algeria. More concerningly for the Africans though is Germany's ability to pick teams apart in the offensive third. The USA was the only team to hold up well against the German attack and Algeria isn't them. GERMANY in a comfortable win.

That sets up a gigantic clash between France and Germany in the quarterfinals. I think there's only one potential game that can match the hype and intrigue of this game and that would be a Brazil-Argentina final. If/when this match occurs it will likely be the longest game preview I've written. Won't look too closely at it here as it deserves proper attention. I would still take Germany in this match but that could change in a heartbeat.

Advancing: Germany
Also have a chance: France

Quarter 3

Certainly looks different from what I had predicted. I only had one of these 4 teams in the right slot and I didn't have either Costa Rica or Greece in the picture at all.

Right off the bat, Netherlands could not have asked for a better group of teams in this quarter. This is about as easy as a knockout round can get for a team. Granted it's the Netherlands and history tells me they may find a way to mess this up but this is a relative walk in to the semifinals for them.

Biggest concern for the Dutch has to be their first game. Mexico gave up just 1 goal in the group stages and that came in garbage time of their final match against Costa Rica. Mexico area phenomenal defensive team but they'll be put to the test against these Dutch strikers. van Persie and Robben are the top scoring duo in this tournament with 6 goals in 5 man-games (van Persie was suspended against Chile). When you have two players in form that are averaging over a goal per game EACH, you have a great chance of winning any game you play in. I see it being close and I see it being low-scoring but I don't see Mexico being on top at the end. NETHERLANDS to win.

It's always nice to see underdogs succeed and one of Costa Rica and Greece will find themselves in the quarterfinals. As a fan of quality soccer though, my face fell when Giorgos Samaras hit that penalty kick and ensured this match would become a thing. Greece are near intolerable to watch play. Game inevitably gets bogged down and slow frustrates opponents in to trying wild chances on goal that are never going to succeed. Costa Rica started the tournament on a tear before coming back to Earth in their match with England. I still believe their attacking initiative is superior and their defence near equal to that of Greece's. Combine that with better goalkeeping and COSTA RICA should advance from this match.

I sort of gave it away in my preface but I have NETHERLANDS winning in the quarterfinals. Same 2-3-5 formation as Costa Rica but Netherlands simply have better players and better execution in all aspects of the game. No need to overthink this one. FWIW, I would take Mexico over both Costa Rica and Greece should that be the quarterfinal match.

Advancing: Netherlands
Also have a chance: Mexico

Quarter 4

Outside of the CONMEBOL derby happening above, this is the most fascinating of the quarters to me because it's the only one where I see a scenario in which all 4 teams can get out of here.

Argentina-Switzerland is an interesting stylistic matchup. Argentina with the dynamic attacking offence and a really shaky central defence. Switzerland sort of an enigma this tournament, good at everything but not great in anything. If Argentina can step up defensively then I think they're in the driver's seat but I'm not ready to count Switzerland out just yet. My pick for now is ARGENTINA, but I may revisit that come game preview time.

Belgium and USA are incredibly similar style-wise which will either make it a fascinating tactical battle or 90+ minutes of drudgery. Personnel-wise, Belgium have the advantage in every facet of the game. But they just haven't looked very strong this tournament. Not the quick passing and runs that we expected from them and shaky in the back, particularly out wide. The U.S. aren't flashy but they trust their system and most importantly for them it works. Of all the Round of 16 games, this one screams PENALTY KICKS to me. I think whether it gets to that or not, BELGIUM wins but they aren't looking like the potential champion the way they were pegged prior to the tournament.

FWIW, I would likely take ARGENTINA over either Belgium or the USA in the quarterfinals. Things will get interesting though if Switzerland manage to beat Argentina. Regardless of whether their opponent is Belgium or the USA, I think any of those 3 teams could beat the other on any day.

Advancing: Argentina
Also have a chance: Everyone

FINALS

In my little exercise here, this is what I have come up with for semifinals.

The top matchup will be as big a test to Germany's formational strength and organization as anything. Germany have committed more turnovers then usual in this tournament and I feel no other team can better take advantage of that then Colombia. Colombia have been the best counter-attacking team in this tournament and are good enough defensively to hold up Germany. Being played on the home continent, I'm going away from my pre-tournament pick and saying COLOMBIA will emerge from this game.

The home advantage is to be considered in the second game as well (No European team has ever won in the Americas) but frankly I think Argentina will be a bit lucky to make it this far. Weak on defence and Messi has been completely shouldering the load in the goal-scoring department. Netherlands were expected to be in rebuild mode this tournament but they are more then capable of neutralizing Argentina's offence and have the best scoring tandem in the tournament. NETHERLANDS to advance to their second straight final.

Predicting third-place games is always a crapshoot. In my scenario, I'll take Germany, who have finished top 3 in each of the last 3 World Cups.

This leads me to my NETHERLANDS-COLOMBIA final. Personnel-wise, it's a wash in midfield and goal. Netherlands forwards I would give an advantage to against Colombia's defence, but I feel the Dutch can hold up against James Rodriguez and company with their defensive discipline. Yes, that's right folks. I have the NETHERLANDS finally getting over the hump and winning their first World Cup, having lost in 3 previous finals.

Below is my complete prediction:

Questions? Comments? Want to call me a raging lunatic because <insert team> <went too far/didn't go far enough>? Let me know!

Game 36 Recap: Croatia 1-3 Mexico

CROATIA 1-3 MEXICO

A scoreline that belies how this match truly played out, Mexico came out a decisive victor and secured advancement to the knockout round. Croatia meanwhile will go home empty-handed despite being arguably the better team on the field today.

Unsurprisingly it was a slow match as Mexico's defence asserted it's dominance on the match. Croatia held the advantage in possession throughout the game but time and again found themselves turned away from scoring chances by a team that nearly went through the entire group without surrendering a goal.

A pair of Croatia chances went wayward early in the game and Mexico nearly found its way on to the scoreboard in the 16th minute. The ball was laid in the midfield to Hector Herrera. Herrera's laser of a shot eluded Stipe Pletikosa in Croatia's goal but curled in to the corner of the crossbar and post and out.

As the game progressed, Mexico fell further back in to a defensive shell, eager to protect the tie that would see them on to the Round of 16. They refused to stop attacking in possession though and were finally rewarded for their efforts. Captain Rafael Marquez, who was the anchor of the Mexican defence all through the group stage got above his defender on a corner kick and headed home the goal that would crush Croatia's hopes of advancing.

Pushing forward in a desperate attempt to score and get back in the game, Croatia left themselves exposed at the back and were punished for it. Andres Guardado slotted the ball home carefully on an odd-man rush and then Javier Hernandez finished things off by heading home off a corner kick.

Ivan Perisic was able to pull one back for Croatia but it was far too little, too late and Mexico ran Croatia out of time in this game. That was not before Ante Rebic got his studs up on Carlos Pena and drew a straight red card that could bring further suspension for 2018 World Cup qualifying.

Goals

Croatia: Ivan Perisic (87')
Mexico: Rafael Marquez (72'), Andres Guardado (75'), Javier Hernandez (82')

Discipline

Croatia: Ivan Rakitic (Yellow 9'), Ante Rebic (Red 89')
Mexico: Rafael Marquez (Yellow 39'), Jose Vazquez (Yellow 65' - Misses Round of 16)

Man of the Match

Rafael Marquez was named Man of the Match. Marquez was a rock in central defence for the third straight game and also chipped in the opening goal for Mexico with 18 minutes left on the clock.

Key Moment

With Croatia getting some sustained pressure and needing a win to advance, Mexico won a corner kick with 20 minutes to play. Rafael Marquez rose above his defender and directed his header between the back post and Stipe Pletikosa. The goal gave Mexico a much-needed cushion and they were able to pour goals on from there as Croatia went in to full attack mode.

What we learned from Croatia

Don't think they have anything to be ashamed of here, you could argue they were the better team for the first 70 minutes. Got too aggressive after Marquez scored but when you need 2 goals in 20 minutes then you have to take chances. Some young players that can return and make a run at the next World Cup. Need to look elsewhere in goal though, Pletikosa was a weak point for them throughout the tournament.

What we learned from Mexico

They finally surrendered a goal late but for the third straight game, Mexico won with their defence. Croatia were able to get little in the way of quality scoring chances despite spending considerable time on the ball in the Mexican half. Need to find a way to get more offensive pressure on a consistent basis, and will have to figure out how to control the midfield without Vazquez who will be suspended in their next match.

Going Forward 

Croatia will take some promise from this performance in to Euro 2016 qualifying. Mexico have a date with Netherlands in the Round of 16 which should test their defence greatly. Netherlands have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.

Game 36 Starting Lineups (Croatia vs. Mexico)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups below:

Croatia

Just one switch for Croatia from last match but it's a big one. Vrsaljko comes in at right back and Darijo Srna takes Sammir's place in the midfield.

 

Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Danijel Subasic (#23), Oliver Zelenika (#12)

Defenders: Gordon Schildenfeld (#13), Domagoj Vida (#21)

Midfielders: Milan Badelj (#15), Marcelo Brozovic (#14), Mateo Kovacic (#20), Sammir (#19), Ognjen Vukojevic (#8)

Forwards: Eduardo (#22), Nikica Jelavic (#9), Ante Rebic (#16)


Mexico

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. 3rd straight game this XI takes the field for Mexico.

 

 
Substitutes:


Goalkeepers: Jose de Jesus Corona (#1), Alfredo Talavera (#13)

Defenders: Miguel Angel Ponce (#16), Diego Reyes (#5), Carlos Salcido (#3)

Midfielders: Javier Aquino (#20), Isaac Brizuela (#17), Marco Fabian (#8), Carlos Pena (#21)

Forwards: Javier Hernandez (#14), Raul Jimenez (#9), Alan Pulido (#11)

Game 36 Preview: Croatia vs. Mexico

CROATIA vs. MEXICO

 Date: June 23, 2014

Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Arena Pernambuco, Recife

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 2-1-0 Croatia

Last Match: 2002 World Cup (Group Stage). Mexico def. Croatia 1-0.

Line: Croatia and Mexico +160

Group A Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Croatia (18th), Mexico (20th)

Managers: Niko Kovac (CRO), Miguel Herrera (MEX)

Captains: Darijo Srna (CRO), Rafael Marquez (MEX)

World Cup Appearances: 4 (CRO), 15 (MEX)

Best Finish: Croatia (Third Place, 1998), Mexico (2x Quarterfinals, Last in 1986)

Qualifying Records: Croatia (6-3-3, GF: 14, GA: 9), Mexico (10-3-5, GF: 31, GA: 14)

Previous Game Results

Croatia

June 12th - Brazil def. Croatia 3-1
June 18th - Croatia def. Cameroon 4-0

Mexico

June 13th - Mexico def. Cameroon 1-0
June 17th - Mexico tied Brazil 0-0

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

Croatia: Vedran Corluka (Yellow Card), Dejan Lovren (Yellow Card)
Mexico: Paul Aguilar (Yellow Card), Hector Moreno (Yellow Card)

Overview

The most compelling of the four games today, as a probable Brazil win at the same time means just one of these 2 teams will join them in the knockout round. Oddsmakers see no separation between the teams although Mexico hold the edge in the standings based on their surprising tie against Brazil last week.

Mexico have gotten by so far on the strength of their defence in this tournament. Employing a variation of a 5-3-2 formation, Mexico have yet to concede a goal in Brazil, bolstered by fantastic goalkeeping from Guillermo Ochoa in goal.

Croatia struggled without Mario Mandzukic in their opener but were on fire offensively last game against Cameroon and will pose just as a big a threat to Ochoa's goal as Brazil did.

Neither team are expected to make drastic changes to their lineups ahead of this contest. Mexico only need a draw and may be relying on their back line to again carry them to points, especially if they can notch an early goal. Croatia's strength is in their attack and they will be doing their best to take the game to Mexico as quickly as possible.

Mexico should have a bit of home field advantage in this contest as well. Their match against Brazil had a shocking amount of green and red in the stands, despite the fact El Tri were playing the host country.

Personnel

In the Croatian Third: Giovani dos Santos has been stellar for Mexico in their first 2 games but is not getting a lot in the way of help from his teammates. Oribe Peralta has hardly had his name called so far this tournament and Javier Hernandez has been no better as a substitute. Croatia have been shaky themselves at times, particularly when the ball is played in to their penalty area but they'll feel confident about their chances in this game. Advantage: Even.

In the Midfield: Mexico with a relatively unheralded group in the midfield. Strong defensively but their offence relies on long balls and wing back pressure. Croatia also solid defensively in the centre and can move the ball and make plays through Modric, Rakitic and Perisic. Advantage: Croatia

In the Mexican Third: Mario Mandzukic is the most dangerous striker in this group (Neymar's a winger for this exercise) and brings a very different skill set to the position then Mexico have seen so far. Mandzukic's presence will likely force Mexico's defence back further in to their own area and create space above the penalty area to operate. Jose Vazquez in holding midfield will be crucial in support today. Advantage: Even.

Goalkeeping: Guillermo Ochoa is the so far the best goalkeeper in the tournament, and there isn't a close second. Mexico are in a position to advance because of him and they will be relying on their goalkeeper to continue his phenomenal tournament. Stipe Pletikosa has been unconvincing for Croatia and may be a liability in the back. Advantage: Mexico

Croatia will win if:

Control the flow of the game in the midfield, allow Mandzukic and the wingers chances to get in the Mexican area and don't let Layun and Aguilar stretch the field wide. Mexico won't mind this game being at a crawling pace as it will allow them to control their defensive shape. Croatia have to be strong on the ball through the midfield and control possession which will allow them to pressure on the attack. Mexico can defeat them wide with their speed though so Srna and Pranjic need to very careful about pinching forward.

Mexico will win if:

Keep a body on Mandzukic at all times and do not allow Olic and Perisic free run of the wings. Cameroon had no answer for Perisic's frequent runs and attacks on the wing and Croatia have too many weapons in the centre of the field if they allow Croatia's wings to take over this game. Also need to remember that a draw is a win today for Mexico. Have to keep pressure up offensively but if tied midway through the second half, have to defend their goal with everything they have.

Prediction

Croatia a better team if you look at the personnel but can't discount Mexico's team defence and the partisan crowd in their favour. I think Croatia breaks Ochoa's shutout streak, but Mexico manages a goal themselves and escapes with a draw.

Croatia 1-1 Mexico

Standings Update: June 18th

Updating the Standings for games from the past 2 days.

Group H

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
Belgium	1	0	0	2	1	1	3
Russia	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
South Korea	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
Algeria	0	1	0	1	2	-1	0

Belgium had a scare for a while but pulled out the victory in the end. They also got helped by Russia drawing Korea. Belgium should be able to secure first in this group against a pair of offensively inept teams. Second place appears to be wide open though. If Algeria can find some goals against Russia in particular, I would favour them to come in second at this point.

Group A

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
Brazil	1	0	1	3	1	2	4
Mexico	1	0	1	1	0	1	4
Croatia	1	1	0	5	3	2	3
Cameroon	0	2	0	0	5	-5	0

Cameroon bombed out in spectacular fashion tonight and is eliminated. Brazil should have no problem dealing with Cameroon and barring a major surprise will finish first. Mexico/Croatia will be the deciding match for the other advancement spot. 

Croatia with the goal difference advantage but pay the price for Mexico's surprise draw with Brazil. Mexico can survive and get through to the knockout round with a draw while Croatia has to pick up the victory to prolong their World Cup.

Group B

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
Netherlands	2	0	0	8	3	5	6
Chile	2	0	0	5	1	4	6
Australia	0	2	0	3	6	-3	0
Spain	0	2	0	1	7	-6	0

Australia were expected to be in this boat. Spain were not. Both are eliminated at this point though and will play each other to finish off their Brazilian experience. Netherlands and Chile will meet in their final game with first place on the line. Brazil looks set to finish first in Group A and will face the second-place team in this group, something both will look to avoid. Netherlands holds the tiebreaker in goal differential on the strength of their thrashing of Spain so they can settle for a draw while Chile needs a win to win the group and draw Mexico or Croatia in the knockout round.

Game 16 Recap: Brazil 0-0 Mexico

BRAZIL 0-0 MEXICO

You might have to go back to Oliver Kahn in 2002 to find a World Cup goalkeeping display as spectacular as the one put on by Mexico's Guillermo Ochoa in this game.

Ochoa turned in 4 phenomenal saves from point blank range to maintain a tie game and ultimately earn a point from their game against the host nation.

In a game largely stuck in the middle with scoring chances from outside the penalty area, it looked for the hosts that they had taken a 1-0 lead in the 26th minute. That is until Ochoa turned in one of the  best saves in World Cup memory on Neymar. A cross to the top of the area found Neymar leaping over a defender to direct on goal. Seemingly out of reach, Ochoa somehow reached across his goal to not only get a hand to the ball but ensure it cleared the post on the way out. A remarkable effort considering goal-line technology showed it was directly able the line when Ochoa got hand to it.

That was just the beginning for Ochoa though. Just before the half-time break, Thiago Silva directed the ball with his chest in to the penalty area. Playing an offside trap, Mexico left a point-blank 2-on-0 but Ochoa bravely challenged and saved the chip shot from Paulinho. Middle of the second half, Neymar pulled the ball down in the area and got a strong shot off but straight at Ochoa who saved and directed wide.

Not to be outdone in the end, Silva found himself with an uncontested header from front of goal but the header was too close to Ochoa who threw a hand out to punch it away. Frustrating to say the least for Brazilian players and Mexico owes Ochoa for this one.

Outside of Ochoa's brilliance, Brazil held possession but found themselves frustrated largely by the stout Mexican defence and left themselves open to counter-attack although Mexico was content to hang back. Mexico found themselves unable to penetrate the Brazilian penalty area effectively and rained shots in from distance, coming close but only forcing 1 key save out of Julio Cesar.

It's not the performance Brazilian fans wanted to see and there will surely be questions as a result. Worst part for the hosts may have been pockets of the stadium filled with Mexican green and red and a late chant of MEXICO! ringing around the stadium towards the end.

Goals

Brazil: N/A

Mexico: N/A

Discipline

Brazil: Ramires (Yellow 45'), Thiago Silva (Yellow 79')

Mexico: Paul Aguilar (Yellow 59'), Jose Juan Vazquez (Yellow 62')

Man of the Match

Won't be an easier Man of the Match decision in the tournament. Guillermo Ochoa turned in a goalkeeping performance for the ages and is the sole reason Mexico escaped this match with any points.

Key Moment

Neymar was already beginning to celebrate his 3rd goal of the tournament in the 26th minute. His header should have been unreachable but Guillermo Ochoa somehow not only got his right hand to the ball but scooped it off the line with just one arm. Brazil would have other chances but this was the first sign that Ochoa was in for the game of his life.

What we learned from Brazil

Probably did enough to win if not for Ochoa but not the most promising performance. Their movement in the midfield was inconsistent, they left themselves too exposed on the back end and have a couple glaring personnel issues up front. Hulk missed out with an injury and Fred has been non-existent all tournament. Bernard looked strong off the bench but Ramires and Jo were both ineffective as well. Have to get a combination up front that they can rely on.

What we learned from Mexico

They switched to a 2-3-5 formation for this game to help their defence and it worked to perfection. Yes there were the lapses that Ochoa had to bail them out on but they held as well as can be expected under the constant Brazilian pressure. Their own personnel issues upfront though as Oribe Peralta was again a ghost on the field. May be time to give Javier Hernandez a look up front.

Going Forward 

Brazil will be gloom and doom about this result but they'll still be in first after tomorrow's Group A game regardless. Both teams will need only a draw in their final group matches to advance to the knockout round and both will be favoured to do so against their opponents.

Game 16 Starting Lineups (Brazil vs. Mexico)

Game Preview here.
Starting Lineups below.

Brazil

Same lineup as 1st game with exception of Ramires for the injured Hulk.



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Jefferson (#1), Victor (#22)

Defenders: Dante (#13), Henrique (#15), Maicon (#23), Maxwell (#14)

Midfielders: Fernandinho (#5), Hernanes (#18), William (#19)

Forwards: Bernard (#20), Hulk (#7), Jo (#21)

Mexico



Substitutes:

Goalkeepers: Jose de Jesus Corona (#1), Alfredo Talavera (#13)

Defenders: Miguel Angel Ponce (#16), Diego Reyes (#5), Carlos Salcido (#3)

Midfielders: Javier Aquino (#20), Isaac Brizuela (#17), Marco Fabian (#8), Carlos Pena (#21)

Forwards: Javier Hernandez (#14), Raul Jimenez (#9), Alan Pulido (#11)

Game 16 Preview: Brazil vs. Mexico

BRAZIL vs. MEXICO

 Date: June 17, 2014

Time: 3:00 p.m. EDT

Venue: Estadio Castelao, Fortaleza

Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 22-10-6 Brazil

Last Match: 2013 Confederations Cup (Group Stage). Brazil def. Mexico 2-0.

Line: Brazil -320

Group A Preview here.

Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Brazil (3rd), Mexico (13th)

Managers: Luiz Felipe Scolari (BRA), Miguel Herrera (MEX)

Captains: Thiago Silva (BRA), Rafael Marquez (MEX)

World Cup Appearances: 20 (BRA), 15 (MEX)

Best Finish: Brazil (5x Champions, Last in 2002), Mexico (Quarterfinals, 1986)

Qualifying Records: Brazil (N/A), Mexico (10-3-5, GF: 31, GA: 14)

Previous Game Results

Brazil

June 12th - Brazil def. Croatia 3-1

Mexico

June 13th - Mexico def. Cameroon 1-0

Rosters

Injuries/Discipline

For those not aware, yellow cards are not wiped out until after the quarterfinals. If a player accumulates two yellow cards in any of their first 5 games, they will face a 1-game suspension.

Brazil: Neymar (Yellow Card), Luiz Gustavo (Yellow Card), Hulk (Questionable - Thigh)

Mexico: Hector Moreno (Yellow Card)

Overview

Should be one of the more entertaining matches of the group stage as Brazil and Mexico square off. Both on 3 points in Group A, these teams are meeting almost one year to the day of their last match which occurred in the exact same stadium in Fortaleza.

That match was in the Confederations Cup and saw Brazil win 2-0 on the strength of an early Neymar goal and a Jo tally right at the finish. It will be a different Mexico squad today though. While the exact same 11 for Brazil could start this match, 5 of that Mexican 11 aren't even in Brazil.

Mexico is about to find out if their switch to a 2-3-5 formation that has proved so successful for teams so far in this tournament will pay off or not. It was a switch made largely to counter the threat Brazil provided and it's time to see if it was worth it. Mexico looked strong against Cameroon, using Miguel Layun in particular to race up the flank and create width in the Mexican attack while still being defensively sound. They'll need a repeat of that performance today and will like their counter-attacking potential with the Brazilian full backs pressed up so high.

Brazil fought off a poor start in their opener against Croatia to pick up a solid 3-1 victory. Mexico should provide their toughest test of the group though and they may need to do it without starting winger Hulk who picked up a thigh injury in training. Brazil will also have a Mexican squad that is faster in the midfield and on the wings to contend with than the one they faced a year ago.

A victory for either team would all but assure them of advancing to the knockout round and both teams should be pressing for the full 3 points in this contest.

Personnel

In the Brazilian Third: Mexico's first game should have been 3-0 instead of 1-0 and Cameroon did not have an answer for Giovani dos Santos. Mexico needs Oribe Peralta to step up but between those two and Layun/Aguilar pushing up the flanks, Mexico will fancy its opportunities going forward. Advantage: Mexico

In the Midfield: An intriguing battle in the middle of the field particularly between Jose Juan Vazquez and Paulinho/Luiz Gustavo. Both sets of midfielders stood out in their opening matches and both used their wing backs to full advantage playing the ball through the midfield. Mexico figure to be more tentative but would love to clog up the midfield and keep the ball away from the likes of Neymar and Oscar if possible. Advantage: Brazil by a hair.

In the Mexican Third: Neymar had his way with Mexico in last year's meeting. Mexico's defence has been bolstered since then but they don't have a lot of pace in the middle of the pitch where Neymar spent most of his time against Croatia. Even if Hulk can't play, Mexico have plenty to worry about in this end of the field. Advantage: Brazil

Goalkeeping: Still plenty of questions around Julio Cesar and what form he is in after seeing little action against Croatia. Corona played in pre-tournament for Mexico, Ochoa played the opener and both looked very good. Advantage: Mexico by a hair.

Brazil will win if:

They can protect their flanks from the Mexican wing backs getting forward. Use of the wide backs is a staple in Brazilian soccer and they won't want to abandon it. But the further Dani Alves and Marcelo get up the field, the more susceptible Brazil is going to be on the back end. That's always the case but especially true against Mexico. "Left back" Miguel Layun was often the furthest player up the field for Mexico and time and again they were able to find in in wide open spaces upfield. Brazil is often willing to expose their flanks and protect the centre but that could haunt them if they don't be wary.

Mexico will win if:

STOP NEYMAR. There's so many players in this Brazilian side that can beat you but no one is more dangerous than Neymar. Mexico know that better then anyone, Neymar burned them for a goal and one of the best assists you'll see last year. Mexico will have 3 central defenders to protect the front of goal, but they have to close down Neymar every time he is on the ball or this will turn in to a Confederations Cup replay.

Prediction

It's a much better Mexican team then we saw last year, but I don't think they're on the level with Brazil. Will have success on counter-attacks and should find a goal with all of their talent up front but don't believe it will be enough.

Brazil 2-1 Mexico.

Standings Update: June 13th

Every night, I'll recap the standings for the groups that have completed a round of games. Didn't do yesterday because Group A had games to play. Show the current standings and my thoughts on what it may mean.

Group A

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
Brazil	1	0	0	3	1	2	3
Mexico	1	0	0	1	0	1	3
Cameroon	0	1	0	0	1	-1	0
Croatia	0	1	0	1	3	-2	0

No surprise at the top with Brazil. A relatively straight-forward group for the hosts, they are still on target to top the group. In the 3-way battle for second, Cameroon has the short stick with 0 points and Brazil left on the schedule. Croatia play Cameroon next and whoever wants to challenge Mexico for second will have to get a win from that game. A draw would be disastrous for both teams regardless of how Mexico play against Brazil. If things go to plan, Croatia and Mexico will have a winner-take-all game to finish off the group on June 23rd.

Group B
 

Team	W	L	T	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
Netherlands	1	0	0	5	1	4	3
Chile	1	0	0	3	1	2	3
Australia	0	1	0	1	3	-2	0
Spain	0	1	0	1	5	-4	0

 Shock of the tournament with Spain imploding in front of the world's eyes. With Australia on the schedule next and a +4 goal differential, Netherlands should be clear to the next round. Chile and Spain play next and that game should determine second place in the group. Chile will go in only needing a draw while 3 points is a must for Spain if they want any shot of getting out of the group.

Game 2 Recap: Mexico 1-0 Cameroon

MEXICO 1-0 CAMEROON  

Second game in the books and the story again is some questionable refereeing decisions. Both teams combined for 3 first-half goals, all of which were called back due to the offside rule. Before I go further, this is the offside rule:

 if a player is in an offside position (as defined below) when the ball is touched or played by a team-mate, the player may not become actively involved in the play. A player is in an offside position when closer to the opponent's goal line than both the ball and the second-to-last defender (which is usually the last outfield player), and also in the opponent's half of the pitch.

Cameroon's goal was a definite offside. The first Mexican goal was questionable. It appeared dos Santos was onside but it was very close. The 2nd disallowed Mexican goal was an awful decision however. Onside when the corner kick was taken, all Mexican players were onside, as the ball was only touched by Cameroon's Maxim Choupo-Moting. Balls off the defender do not activate the offside rule and this should have stood.

It was a frustrating first half for this Mexican team but they also appeared the stronger of the 2 sides. Mexico had great success in the centre of the field with Giovani dos Santos as expected. It was the play of Miguel Layun on the left side of the field that raised eyebrows in the first half though. Time and again, Layun was able to get behind Cedric Djeugoue in the Cameroon defence and caused so much trouble that it sent Djeugoue to the bench at halftime.

Mexico finally found the goal they were seeking in the 61st minute, when dos Santos split the central defence and while his initial shot was saved by Itandje, no one from Cameroon picked up top scorer Oribe Peralta who buried the rebound to (finally) give Mexico their deserved lead.

Outside of these chances, it was a mostly sloppy affair in both ends. Both defences had mental lapses more then anything else. The Mexican defence allowed Assou-Ekotto to sneak through the left flank and his cross to Eto'o should have been converted if not for a poor one-time shot by the veteran. Hernandez for Mexico found himself wide open in front of goal late but failed to connect properly on his volley.

Cameroon nearly got a shock result in injury time themselves, when Benjamin Moukandjo's header was stopped only by a diving Guillermo Ochoa. Other then that though, Mexico was the clear best team in this contest, able to control the ball and effortlessly get in to the Cameroon area.

Goals

Mexico: Peralta (61')
Cameroon: None

Discipline

Mexico: Moreno (57')
Cameroon: Nounkeu (77')

Man of the Match


Giovani dos Santos was named man of the match having scored 2 wrongly disallowed goals and being a dynamic playmaker in the Mexican midfield. dos Santos was only robbed of a third goal by a great Charles Itandje save which was followed by Peralta's rebound goal.

Key Moment

What should have been a Mexican blowout could have turned disastrous for them in injury time. Benjamin Moukandjo got free to meet an Assou-Ekotto cross and his header appeared destined for the far post before a diving Ochoa made the catch. Had little to do in the game but that huge dive from Ochoa is directly responsible for 2 additional points for the Mexican team.

What We Learned from Mexico

Dynamic attacking presence even without Hernandez in a starting role. dos Santos was all over the field, Aguilar and Layun gave the Cameroon wing backs fits all game and Vazquez was more then adequate in the holding midfield. Looked a little sloppy in their own penalty area, part of which is a result of Cameroon's extreme size advantage. Shape up the back end and be more solid in clearances, they should be good.

What We Learned from Cameroon

Better on the defensive end since pre-tournament games but every Mexican goal (allowed or disallowed) exposed their biggest problem. These guys have no idea where the opposing attackers are in the area. No one had dos Santos when he headed the ball in for both goals, Marquez barely missed a header off a free kick where about 4 Mexicans were all surrounding the ball without a yellow jersey. And everyone was just standing for the counted goal. Not a team with enough talent offensively to have a defence standing around doing nothing.

Going Forward

Mexico needed to win this game to set up a likely winner-advances game against Croatia. For Cameroon, this means they'll have to take a result against Brazil to get out of the group. Never say never but Cameroon could be done in this group already.