November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 5

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Belize-143rd (Down 9), 21st N. America (Down 3)
Grenada-116th (Up 4), 17th N. America (Down 1)
Guatemala-99th (Up 10), 12th N. America (Up 1)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-146th (Up 12), 22nd N. America (Up 4)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Belize 3-0 Grenada
• St.Vincent/Grenadines 0-4 Guatemala

September 6, 2011

• Guatemala 2-1 Belize

September 18, 2011

• Grenada 1-2 St.Vincent/Grenadines

October 7, 2011

• Grenada 4-1 Belize
• Guatemala 3-0 St.Vincent/Grenadines

October 11, 2011

• Belize 1-3 Guatemala

October 15, 2011

• St.Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 Grenada
  

November 11, 2011

• Grenada at Guatemala
• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
  

November 15, 2011

• Guatemala at Grenada
• Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines

November Games:

Game 9
St. Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
November 11, 2011
Time: 4:30 pm EST
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Game 10
Grenada at Guatemala
November 11, 2011
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 11
Guatemala at Grenada
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Game 12
Belize at St. Vincent/Grenadines
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines

Not a thrilling group of games this month. Was supposed to be a 2-game showdown between Guatemala and Grenada in November to decide the group. But Guatemala clinched the group back in October, and Grenada's poor effort all campaign has removed any marquee attached to those games. All teams will be looking to just finish off their schedule, with 3 of the 4 teams regrouping after for next qualifying run. Guatemala will advance to a group with the USA and Jamaica and the Group F winner. Look for them to keep their foot on the gas pedal as they attempt to maintain their form going in to that group. Beating the US seems unlikely but they'll stand a real shot at grabbing second place in that group, good enough to advance to Round 4.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Guatemala-16 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-7 pts
x-Belize-6 pts
x-Grenada-5 pts

Tough to predict. Hard to tell what sort of effort each team will put forth and aside from Guatemala, they've all looked awful anyway. I'll give a split to Belize and St. Vincent and a win and a draw to Guatemala. In this scenario, top-seeded Grenada would finish the group in last place. Ouch.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 3-0 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on October 7, 2011

• Guatemala Goals-Mario Rodriguez (44', 58'), Dwight Pezzarossi (71')

Another day and another easy 3 points for group leaders Guatemala. On the road, they had little trouble with a St. Vincent team who has now dropped both games to Guatemala by a combined score of 7-0.

Game 6-Grenada def. Belize 4-1 in Belmopan, Belize on October 7, 2011

• Grenada Goals-Shane Rennie (37'), Marcus Julien (41'), Lancaster Joseph (50'), Clive Murray (80')
• Belize Goals-Ryan Simpson (90')

I warned in the group preview that Grenada was a team that despite losing their first 2 games could explode at any moment in this group. And that's exactly what happened in this game at the expense of an upstart Belizean team. Grenada looked like an entirely different team, dynamic on offence and solid on the back end as they dismantled Belize and showed why they were the top seed in this group coming in to qualifying.

Game 7-Guatemala def. Belize 3-1 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on October 11, 2011

• Guatemala Goals-Carlos Gallardo (8'), Minor Lopez (65'), Carlos Ruiz (78')
• Belize Goals-Deon McCauley (31')

A must-win game for Belize in order to stay alive, they held tough for two-thirds of the game before succumbing to a pair of Guatemalan goals, eliminating Belize from competition. Some questionable refereeing decisions in this game as a number of hard tackles against Belize players went unnoticed and unenforced by the referee. Guatemala's 1st and 3rd goals also came on penalty kicks.

Game 8-Grenada tied St. Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 in St. George's, Grenada on October 15, 2011

• St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (62')
• Grenada Goals-Clive Murray (90+2')

And just as quickly as Grenada awoke from hibernation, they fell back in to a slumber. Polar opposite performance from the Belize game, they looked disorganized and sluggish on the field and had to claw an injury time goal just to avoid a loss. Drawing the game negatively impacted both teams as it ensured Guatemala would win the group, eliminating both of these teams.

Thoughts

Belize-Looked really strong in Round 1 and early in this group but fell apart this month with a pair of losses. Guatemalan loss is understandable against a good team with some calls going against them but loss to Grenada is an anomaly, especially considering Grenada's failures in every game this group. Belize could be suffering from a lack of depth as many of their stalwarts have played every minute of qualfiying this year. With a pair of meaningless games left, they'll have a chance to tinker with their roster.

Grenada-I give up trying to understand this team. No consistency whatsoever and their fans have to be frustrated because this team has shown in previous competitions that they're capable of competing at a high level. I don't know what they can do to stop the bleeding right now but they better come up with something quick; they have a pair of games against Guatemala on deck.

Guatemala-In a group full of underachieving teams, Guatemala has held strong all round, posting a perfect record and having the dubious honour of being the only group team with a positive goal differential. Already qualified for Round 3, they'll use their games against Grenada as a warmup for greater competition. Looming on the horizon in Round 3 will be the U.S., a big test for the central American nation.

St. Vincent/Grenadines-Wasn't expected to be a threat in this group and with 4 points in 4 games, they're right where you might expect them to be. Would have liked to defeat Grenada and maintain a slim shot of advancing but playing a spoiler role is a small consolation prize and they can claim to be the ones who torpedoed Grenada's hopes. Not a glamourous role but one they've filled quite well.

Going Forward

Guatemala has clinched the group and will advance to Group 1 in Round 3. with Jamaica, USA and the group 6 winner.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts

Actual:

a-Guatemala-12 pts
x-Grenada-4 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Belize-3 pts

Surprise win by Grenada against Belize the only miss, and also the primary reason why Guatemala has clinched the group.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 5

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Belize-134th (Up 14), 18th N. America (Up 4)
Grenada-120th (Down 2), 16th N. America (Even)
Guatemala-109th (Up 4), 13th N. America (Even)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (Even), 26th N. America (Down 1)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Belize 3-0 Grenada
• St.Vincent/Grenadines 0-4 Guatemala

September 6, 2011

• Guatemala 2-1 Belize

September 18, 2011

• Grenada 1-2 St.Vincent/Grenadines

October 7, 2011

• Grenada at Belize
• Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines

October 11, 2011

• Belize at Guatemala

October 15, 2011

• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
  

November 11, 2011

• Grenada at Guatemala
• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
  

November 15, 2011

• Guatemala at Grenada
• Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines

October Games:

Game 5
Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 7, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines

Game 6
Grenada at Belize
October 7, 2011
Time: 5:30 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Game 7
Belize at Guatemala
October 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 8
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
October 15, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Group 5 has been the toughest to anticipate in terms of results and it remains to be seen what if anything will be cleared up after October. St.Vincent faces a must win game off the bat against Guatemala who thrashed St.Vincent in September. Grenada has Belize to open and after 2 losses in September they need to turn around their qualifying campaign immediately. Both Grenada and St.Vincent lost games against these opponents in September but have showed enough promise in recent past to not be counted out just yet. Belize travels to Guatemala on the 11th and the winner of that game could very well find themselves in 1st place heading in to the homestretch. Grenada and St.Vincent will meet on the 15th in a probable elimination game for one or both teams.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts

I think Guatemala is going to run away with the group this month but I could be very wrong. Fairly evenly matched teams across the group means anyone can (theoretically in Grenada's case so far) win at any time.

September Review: North America-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Belize def. Grenada 3-0 in St. George's, Grenada on September 2, 2011

• Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (11'), Harrison Roches (35'), Elroy Smith (79')

Sufficed to say, any lingering questions about what form top-seed Grenada are in were answered in this game. Grenada was a wreck in this match and were thoroughly dominated by the lowest-seeded team. Belize on the other hand is in top form and proved they have a shot at winning this group.

Game 2-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 4-0 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on September 2, 2011

• Guatemala Goals-Marco Pappa (15'), Yony Flores (31'), Mario Rodriguez (53'), Fredy Garcia (71')

St. Vincent was just no match for the favourites from Guatemala who were on the attack relentlessly throughout the game. Guatemala cemented themselves as the best team in the group with this big win and Grenada's collapse against Belize.

Game 3-Guatemala def. Belize 2-1 in Belmopan, Belize on September 6, 2011

• Guatemala Goals-Gustavo Cabrera (4'), Minor Lopez (75')
• Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (77')

A late goal by McCaulay was not enough for Belize as they fell 2-1 to Guatemala at home. No shame in this result for Belize as Guatemala was a much higher-rated opponent and Belize controlled the play of this game for the majority. A win in the return game will be crucial but Belize has quickly risen from Round 1 participant to having a great shot at winning this group.

Game 4-St. Vincent/Grenadines def. Grenada 2-1 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on September 18, 2011

• St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (27'), Cornelius Stewart (71')
• Grenada Goals-Cassim Langaigne (76')

Barring a miracle, Grenada has pretty much exited the competition with this result. The top seed in the group, Grenada lost to a very weak St. Vincent team who was blown out by Guatemala just 2 weeks prior to this game. Now 6 points back of Guatemala in the group, Grenada needs to find itself immediately and start winning games if they want to avoid an early exit.

Thoughts

Belize-Very impressive. My primary complaint about CONCACAF is that the talent pool isn't deep enough to support a long qualifying campaign. Belize is in the process of proving me wrong. This team has been competing with teams considerably better than them and shooting up the rankings in the process. A win against Guatemala on the road is a must if they want to advance, but if they can keep up their play from qualifying so far, it is not as arduous a task as it might have appeared a few months ago.

Grenada-



[ed.]-I reuse videos some times when I deem it appropriate. In this case, it would be inappropriate for me NOT to post this...

Guatemala-With Grenada still wondering when qualifying begins, Guatemala has a slight lead on the rest of the group with a pair of victories in September. Guatemala can't become complacent though. A rematch against neighbour Belize still looms and they have a Grenada team to face in November who might at some point before then regain their teeth and provide a stiff test. It's a simple adage but one Guatemala needs to remain focused on: just win.

St. Vincent/Grenadines-Not really sure what to make of this team based on September results although I think the blowout loss to Guatemala means more. Grenada is a mess right now and wouldn't put up much of a fight against anyone. Guatemala on the other hand has been beating solid teams all year and dismantled St. Vincent. Don't shut the door on this team yet but they appear to be way out of their depth in this group.

Going Forward

Four more games to be played in October. Grenada and St. Vincent will again not play on the same matchday as everyone else. On the 7th, Guatemala travels to St. Vincent in what will likely be a 3rd straight win for Guatemala. Grenada will also travel to Belize in a must-win game for both teams (Grenada to avoid probable elimination and Belize to keep pace with Guatemala).

On October 11th, Belize and Guatemala have their rematch in Guatemala City. Winner of that game could very well put themselves in the driver's seat to win the group heading in to November. And on the 15th, Grenada hosts St. Vincent and will look to avenge a terrible loss on the road in September.

No teams are eligible for elimination on the 7th. Certainly there will be some facing it on the 11th/15th though.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts

Actual:

Guatemala-6 pts
Belize-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-3 pts
Grenada-0 pts

Not my best effort. Still can't get over how pitiful Grenada has been. Rewarded with a top seed and can't accomplish anything on the field.

North America: Round 2-Group 5 Primer

World Ranking

Belize-148th (22nd North America)
Grenada-118th (16th North America)
Guatemala-113th (13th North America)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (25th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Belize at Grenada
• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala

September 6, 2011

• Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
• Guatemala at Belize

October 7, 2011

• Grenada at Belize
• Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines

October 11, 2011

• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
  
• Belize/Guatemala

November 11, 2011

• Grenada at Guatemala
• St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
  

November 15, 2011

• Guatemala at Grenada
• Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines

Past International Records

Belize

• 2011 to date: 2-2-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-4-2

Grenada

• 2011 to date: 0-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6

Guatemala

• 2011 to date: 2-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-2
  
• vs. Group opponents: 6-0-2

St.Vincent/Grenadines

• 2011 to date: 0-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6

Team Glimpses

Belize

The highest ranked team in Round 1, they've leapt from 26th to 22nd in CONCACAF on the strength of 2 victories against Montserrat. Of all of the lowest-seeded teams, comprised primarily of Round 1 winners, Belize has the best shot at possibly advancing to Round 3. Part of that is calibre of team they are able to put on the field but they're also going to benefit from having a very weak group. Despite being the lowest seed, Belize is actually currently ranked 3rd in the group and the top-seed Grenada hasn't won a competitive game all year. Belize has been given a group in which they can make noise in if they so choose. Belize's team is formed primarily of domestic players and they will rely heavily on 5 players who play in the strong Honduran leagu, including goalkeeper Shane Moody-Orio and forward Deon McCaulay who scored 4 goals in their 2-leg Round 1 matchup with Montserrat. Those Honduran-based players form the core of Belize's team and if they are on their game, Belize will have a legitimate chance of advancing from this group. Last game that Belize played against a group opponent was a friendly against Guatemala in 2010, which they lost 4-2.

Grenada

Easily, the worst top seed in Round 2, Grenada is in my opinion not even the primary challenger for the top spot. I believe they firmly rest third in a pecking order in this group behind Guatemala and Belize. Grenada is winless on the year and in their last 10 matches dating back to 2010. Most recently they competed at the 2011 Gold Cup where they posted losses to Jamaica, Honduras and groupmate Guatemala, allowing a combined 15 goals in the process. I've said before that momentum matters in international soccer and this is a perfect example of a team that is caught in a downward spiral. One saving grace for Grenada is that they won't have to deal with Guatemala until November, so that's hopefully enough time to pick up some wins and erase the memory of a 4-0 loss in June to exit the Gold Cup.

Guatemala

No less then 3 coaches of top-seeded Round 2 teams said ahead of the preliminary draw that the one team they wanted to avoid at this stage was Guatemala, and with reason. Amongst their records this year: wins against Grenada, draws against Honduras and Bolivia, a narrow loss to Mexico (Guatemala led at halftime). It's especially true that this group would have wanted to avoid Guatemala. None of their group opponents have ever defeated Guatemala. While they are the favourite in the group, they will have a tough task ahead of them; Belize played well in Round 1 and has competed with Guatemala before and there's no telling when the lightswitch might go on again for Grenada. Between those two opponents, Guatemala will still need to be at their best if they hope to return to Round 3 as they did last campaign.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

St.Vincent have the honour of both the longest name of a nation participating in the World Cup as well as the most name variations which I write out depending on my mood and how much space I have to work with. Saint Vincent is a team outside the bottom echelon in CONCACAF but not one who is a going to really challenge to take the group. It's unfortunate that they haven't been able to string together some positive results and have fallen so far down in the continental rankings (they were 13th in CONCACAF last qualifying campaign). I wouldn't rule them out entirely though; in a pair of friendlies with "top-seeded" Grenada last year they posted a 1-0 loss and a 0-0 draw. If they can repeat that performance then thye might have a shot. We'll know a lot more about the form they're in after Sunday as they play a pair of friendlies tomorrow and Sunday against Antigua/Barbuda (ranked 11th in CONCACAF).

September Games:

Game 1
Belize at Grenada
September 2, 2011
Time: 3:30 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Game 2
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
September 2, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 3
Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
September 6, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines

Game 4
Guatemala at Belize
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Group 5 is very intriguing because I'm not sure exactly where each team stands right now relative to each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see some timid play to open the group and probably a fair number of draws throughout the course of the campaign. Belize/Grenada in Game 1 is a tossup. I expect Guatemala to win Game 2. Grenada should win Game 3 but nothing they've done this year makes me convinced they will and Game 4 is again a tossup. It's going to be fun to watch, simply because there is no overwhelming top seed like we've seen in most of the other CONCACAF groups so far.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts