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Showing posts with label Group 5. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Group 5. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 5

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Belize-143rd (Down 9), 21st N. America (Down 3)
Grenada-116th (Up 4), 17th N. America (Down 1)
Guatemala-99th (Up 10), 12th N. America (Up 1)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-146th (Up 12), 22nd N. America (Up 4)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Belize 3-0 Grenada
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines 0-4 Guatemala
September 6, 2011
  • Guatemala 2-1 Belize
September 18, 2011
  • Grenada 1-2 St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 7, 2011
  • Grenada 4-1 Belize
  • Guatemala 3-0 St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 11, 2011
  • Belize 1-3 Guatemala
October 15, 2011
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 Grenada
November 11, 2011
  • Grenada at Guatemala
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
November 15, 2011
  • Guatemala at Grenada
  • Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines
November Games:

Game 9
St. Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
November 11, 2011
Time: 4:30 pm EST
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Game 10
Grenada at Guatemala
November 11, 2011
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 11
Guatemala at Grenada
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Game 12
Belize at St. Vincent/Grenadines
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines

Not a thrilling group of games this month. Was supposed to be a 2-game showdown between Guatemala and Grenada in November to decide the group. But Guatemala clinched the group back in October, and Grenada's poor effort all campaign has removed any marquee attached to those games. All teams will be looking to just finish off their schedule, with 3 of the 4 teams regrouping after for next qualifying run. Guatemala will advance to a group with the USA and Jamaica and the Group F winner. Look for them to keep their foot on the gas pedal as they attempt to maintain their form going in to that group. Beating the US seems unlikely but they'll stand a real shot at grabbing second place in that group, good enough to advance to Round 4.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Guatemala-16 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-7 pts
x-Belize-6 pts
x-Grenada-5 pts

Tough to predict. Hard to tell what sort of effort each team will put forth and aside from Guatemala, they've all looked awful anyway. I'll give a split to Belize and St. Vincent and a win and a draw to Guatemala. In this scenario, top-seeded Grenada would finish the group in last place. Ouch.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

November 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 5

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Bahrain-101st (Up 1), 12th Asia (Down 1)
Indonesia-140th (Down 1), 21st Asia (Up 3)
Iran-42nd (Up 8), 4th Asia (Even)
Qatar-92nd (Up 8), 9th Asia (Up 1)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Indonesia 0-3 Iran
  • Qatar 0-0 Bahrain
September 6, 2011
  • Bahrain 2-0 Indonesia
  • Iran 1-1 Qatar
October 11, 2011
  • Bahrain 0-6 Iran
  • Qatar 3-2 Indonesia
November 11, 2011
  • Indonesia at Qatar
  • Iran at Bahrain
November 15, 2011
  • Bahrain at Qatar
  • Iran at Indonesia
February 29, 2012
  • Qatar at Iran
  • Indonesia at Bahrain
November Games:

Game 7
Iran at Bahrain
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:30 am EST
Location: Bahrain National Stadium, Riffa, Bahrain

Game 8
Indonesia at Qatar
November 11, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar

Game 9
Iran at Indonesia
November 15, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia

Game 10
Bahrain at Qatar
November 15, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar

Iran meets Bahrain in a rematch of their 6-0 victory last month in Tehran. Iran is a different team away from home but I don't think even they can manage going from a 6-0 victory a month ago to dropping a game to Bahrain. Qatar hosts Indonesia with an opportunity to extend their lead over Bahrain for second place.

Iran visits Indonesia in Game 9 and will likely have a shot to clinch advancement in that game. In Game 10, Bahrain and Qatar will meet with second-place in the line on the group. In all likelihood, that game is more of a must-win for Bahrain then it will be for Qatar.

Post-November Standing Predictions:

a-Iran-13 pts
a-Qatar-9 pts
x-Bahrain-5 pts
x-Indonesia-0 pts

Bahrain loses to Iran and faces a must-win game against Qatar. Unfortunately for them, Qatar is too strong at home and is able to hold to a draw (if they don't win outright), eliminating Bahrain from the competition.

Friday, October 21, 2011

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 3-0 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on October 7, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Mario Rodriguez (44', 58'), Dwight Pezzarossi (71')
Another day and another easy 3 points for group leaders Guatemala. On the road, they had little trouble with a St. Vincent team who has now dropped both games to Guatemala by a combined score of 7-0.

Game 6-Grenada def. Belize 4-1 in Belmopan, Belize on October 7, 2011
  • Grenada Goals-Shane Rennie (37'), Marcus Julien (41'), Lancaster Joseph (50'), Clive Murray (80')
  • Belize Goals-Ryan Simpson (90')
I warned in the group preview that Grenada was a team that despite losing their first 2 games could explode at any moment in this group. And that's exactly what happened in this game at the expense of an upstart Belizean team. Grenada looked like an entirely different team, dynamic on offence and solid on the back end as they dismantled Belize and showed why they were the top seed in this group coming in to qualifying.

Game 7-Guatemala def. Belize 3-1 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on October 11, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Carlos Gallardo (8'), Minor Lopez (65'), Carlos Ruiz (78')
  • Belize Goals-Deon McCauley (31')
A must-win game for Belize in order to stay alive, they held tough for two-thirds of the game before succumbing to a pair of Guatemalan goals, eliminating Belize from competition. Some questionable refereeing decisions in this game as a number of hard tackles against Belize players went unnoticed and unenforced by the referee. Guatemala's 1st and 3rd goals also came on penalty kicks.

Game 8-Grenada tied St. Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 in St. George's, Grenada on October 15, 2011
  • St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (62')
  • Grenada Goals-Clive Murray (90+2')
And just as quickly as Grenada awoke from hibernation, they fell back in to a slumber. Polar opposite performance from the Belize game, they looked disorganized and sluggish on the field and had to claw an injury time goal just to avoid a loss. Drawing the game negatively impacted both teams as it ensured Guatemala would win the group, eliminating both of these teams.

Thoughts

Belize-Looked really strong in Round 1 and early in this group but fell apart this month with a pair of losses. Guatemalan loss is understandable against a good team with some calls going against them but loss to Grenada is an anomaly, especially considering Grenada's failures in every game this group. Belize could be suffering from a lack of depth as many of their stalwarts have played every minute of qualfiying this year. With a pair of meaningless games left, they'll have a chance to tinker with their roster.

Grenada-I give up trying to understand this team. No consistency whatsoever and their fans have to be frustrated because this team has shown in previous competitions that they're capable of competing at a high level. I don't know what they can do to stop the bleeding right now but they better come up with something quick; they have a pair of games against Guatemala on deck.

Guatemala-In a group full of underachieving teams, Guatemala has held strong all round, posting a perfect record and having the dubious honour of being the only group team with a positive goal differential. Already qualified for Round 3, they'll use their games against Grenada as a warmup for greater competition. Looming on the horizon in Round 3 will be the U.S., a big test for the central American nation.

St. Vincent/Grenadines-Wasn't expected to be a threat in this group and with 4 points in 4 games, they're right where you might expect them to be. Would have liked to defeat Grenada and maintain a slim shot of advancing but playing a spoiler role is a small consolation prize and they can claim to be the ones who torpedoed Grenada's hopes. Not a glamourous role but one they've filled quite well.

Going Forward

Guatemala has clinched the group and will advance to Group 1 in Round 3. with Jamaica, USA and the group 6 winner.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts

Actual:

a-Guatemala-12 pts
x-Grenada-4 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Belize-3 pts

Surprise win by Grenada against Belize the only miss, and also the primary reason why Guatemala has clinched the group.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Qatar def. Indonesia 3-2 in Jakarta, Indonesia on October 11, 2011
  • Qatar Goals-Abdulaziz Al-Sulaiti (14'), Khalfan Ibrahim (32'), Mohammed Razak (59')
  • Indonesia Goals-Cristian Gonzales (26', 35')
Back-and-forth battle as Qatar surrendered a pair of first-half leads in quick succession before notching the winner in the second half. Both teams needed victories in this match and fought hard for 3 points. Qatar should feel lucky they escaped with a victory though. Qatar is by far a better team but were irresponsible in their own end, twice surrendering leads in the span of 10 minutes.

Game 6-Iran def. Bahrain 6-0 in Tehran, Iran on October 11, 2011
  • Iran Goals-Seyed Hosseini (22'), Mojtaba Jabbari (34'), Hadi Aghili (42'), Andranik Teymourian (62'), Karim Ansarifard (75'), Gholamreza Rezaei (83')
Iran is typically very strong at home but this result stunned pretty much everyone. Bahrain finished aheadof Iran in 2010 qualifying but looked helpless in this match as Iran rained down shots from all over the Bahrainian zone and ran circles around the defenders on their way to a blowout victory. Iran is a team that can go through highs and lows, but this was about as high as any team can get. Huge win for Iran which teams all over Asia will have taken notice of.

Thoughts

Bahrain-A win in Tehran was always going to be a challenge but they could not have possibly expected to fall 6-0. All you can don after a loss like that is to forget about it and move on. Bahrain is just 1 point back of Qatar for second place and still has a game to go against their Gulf neighbours. Best for them to just accept the Iran loss and move forward with their attempt to advance.

Indonesia-Played their best game of 2011 against Qatar and still came up short. I don't know if there's anything Indonesia can do to be a factor in some form in this group. All 3 opponents have an advantage in talent and coaching which Indonesia has yet to be able to compete against. Indonesia has just 1 home game remaining against Iran so the road won't be getting any easier from here on out.

Iran-I said last month that while this team was the best in the group, they'd need to play like it in order to ensure advancement. A 6-0 victory over quality opponent is a pretty strong response to that. Only question that remains for Iran is whether they can repeat this performance away from home. Iran has a pair of road games in November, including a repeat game against Bahrain. Iran could find itself flying high at the top of the group, or be forced to catch up in 2nd or 3rd depending on how they fare away from Tehran.

Qatar-Halfway through group play and I still don't know what Qatar is as a team yet.So far, Qatar's had a lackluster draw against Bahrain, an inspiring draw against Iran and a win over Indonesia which featured 5 lead changes. This team has been up and down all round in a group where any mistake could mean failure to advance. Not a favourable place to be in for a team looking to make an impact as the most recently announced future World Cup host.

Going Forward

November 11th: Iran travels to Bahrain for a rematch while Qatar hosts Indonesia. Indonesia was unable to top a second-rate Qatar performance at home so being on the road means a probable loss. Logic says Bahrain should be better off at home against Iran but it remains to be seen what mental scars remain from the 6-0 beatdown Iran just handed them.

November 15th: Iran visits Indonesia in a game where a mercy rule might need to be requested. Qatar also hosts Bahrain in the most pivotal game of the group. Assuming results of October are repeated, Bahrain will enter that game 4 points back of Qatar for second-place. A win will be necessary for them to stay alive and then a win over Indonesia in their final game should seal advancement for them. But they have to get past Qatar first.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Iran-7 pts
Qatar-5 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

Actual:

Iran-7 pts
Qatar-5 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

Thursday, October 6, 2011

October 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 5

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Bahrain-102nd (Down 2), 11th Asia (Even)
Indonesia-139th (Down 2), 24th Asia (Down 3)
Iran-50th (Up 4), 4th Asia (Even)
Qatar-100th (Down 10), 10th Asia (Down 3)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Indonesia 0-3 Iran
  • Qatar 0-0 Bahrain
September 6, 2011
  • Bahrain 2-0 Indonesia
  • Iran 1-1 Qatar
October 11, 2011
  • Bahrain at Iran
  • Qatar at Indonesia
November 11, 2011
  • Indonesia at Qatar
  • Iran at Bahrain
November 15, 2011
  • Bahrain at Qatar
  • Iran at Indonesia
February 29, 2012
  • Qatar at Iran
  • Indonesia at Bahrain
October Games:

Game 5
Qatar at Indonesia
October 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia

Game 6
Bahrain at Iran
October 11, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Azadi Stadium, Tehran, Iran

At some point in qualifying, Qatar was going to have to win some games in order to advance. After a pair of draws in September, Qatar travels to Indonesia this month and 3 points looks to be the likely outcome against the worst team in the group. Group leaders Iran and Bahrain will face off in Tehran in what will certainly be a closer game then Qatar-Indonesia. As is the case with most Iran games, the outcome will likely depend on which Iranian team shows up to play. When they're at their best, without question they should advance from this group. But if they sleep on Bahrain they'll be made to pay for it. Iran is playing at home which is a sizeable advantage for them. Rarely do they ever lose a game on home soil.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Iran-7 pts
Qatar-5 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

If Iran-Bahrain were being held in Bahrain, I think we'd be looking at a 3-way tie with 5 points. Game is in Iran though so I'm giving the edge and an outright group lead to Iran.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 5

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Belize-134th (Up 14), 18th N. America (Up 4)
Grenada-120th (Down 2), 16th N. America (Even)
Guatemala-109th (Up 4), 13th N. America (Even)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (Even), 26th N. America (Down 1)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Belize 3-0 Grenada
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines 0-4 Guatemala
September 6, 2011
  • Guatemala 2-1 Belize
September 18, 2011
  • Grenada 1-2 St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 7, 2011
  • Grenada at Belize
  • Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 11, 2011
  • Belize at Guatemala
October 15, 2011
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
November 11, 2011
  • Grenada at Guatemala
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
November 15, 2011
  • Guatemala at Grenada
  • Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines
October Games:

Game 5
Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 7, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines

Game 6
Grenada at Belize
October 7, 2011
Time: 5:30 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Game 7
Belize at Guatemala
October 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 8
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
October 15, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Group 5 has been the toughest to anticipate in terms of results and it remains to be seen what if anything will be cleared up after October. St.Vincent faces a must win game off the bat against Guatemala who thrashed St.Vincent in September. Grenada has Belize to open and after 2 losses in September they need to turn around their qualifying campaign immediately. Both Grenada and St.Vincent lost games against these opponents in September but have showed enough promise in recent past to not be counted out just yet. Belize travels to Guatemala on the 11th and the winner of that game could very well find themselves in 1st place heading in to the homestretch. Grenada and St.Vincent will meet on the 15th in a probable elimination game for one or both teams.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts

I think Guatemala is going to run away with the group this month but I could be very wrong. Fairly evenly matched teams across the group means anyone can (theoretically in Grenada's case so far) win at any time.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

September Review: North America-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Belize def. Grenada 3-0 in St. George's, Grenada on September 2, 2011
  • Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (11'), Harrison Roches (35'), Elroy Smith (79')
Sufficed to say, any lingering questions about what form top-seed Grenada are in were answered in this game. Grenada was a wreck in this match and were thoroughly dominated by the lowest-seeded team. Belize on the other hand is in top form and proved they have a shot at winning this group.

Game 2-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 4-0 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on September 2, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Marco Pappa (15'), Yony Flores (31'), Mario Rodriguez (53'), Fredy Garcia (71')
St. Vincent was just no match for the favourites from Guatemala who were on the attack relentlessly throughout the game. Guatemala cemented themselves as the best team in the group with this big win and Grenada's collapse against Belize.

Game 3-Guatemala def. Belize 2-1 in Belmopan, Belize on September 6, 2011
  • Guatemala Goals-Gustavo Cabrera (4'), Minor Lopez (75')
  • Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (77')
A late goal by McCaulay was not enough for Belize as they fell 2-1 to Guatemala at home. No shame in this result for Belize as Guatemala was a much higher-rated opponent and Belize controlled the play of this game for the majority. A win in the return game will be crucial but Belize has quickly risen from Round 1 participant to having a great shot at winning this group.

Game 4-St. Vincent/Grenadines def. Grenada 2-1 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on September 18, 2011
  • St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (27'), Cornelius Stewart (71')
  • Grenada Goals-Cassim Langaigne (76')
Barring a miracle, Grenada has pretty much exited the competition with this result. The top seed in the group, Grenada lost to a very weak St. Vincent team who was blown out by Guatemala just 2 weeks prior to this game. Now 6 points back of Guatemala in the group, Grenada needs to find itself immediately and start winning games if they want to avoid an early exit.

Thoughts

Belize-Very impressive. My primary complaint about CONCACAF is that the talent pool isn't deep enough to support a long qualifying campaign. Belize is in the process of proving me wrong. This team has been competing with teams considerably better than them and shooting up the rankings in the process. A win against Guatemala on the road is a must if they want to advance, but if they can keep up their play from qualifying so far, it is not as arduous a task as it might have appeared a few months ago.

Grenada-



[ed.]-I reuse videos some times when I deem it appropriate. In this case, it would be inappropriate for me NOT to post this...

Guatemala-With Grenada still wondering when qualifying begins, Guatemala has a slight lead on the rest of the group with a pair of victories in September. Guatemala can't become complacent though. A rematch against neighbour Belize still looms and they have a Grenada team to face in November who might at some point before then regain their teeth and provide a stiff test. It's a simple adage but one Guatemala needs to remain focused on: just win.

St. Vincent/Grenadines-Not really sure what to make of this team based on September results although I think the blowout loss to Guatemala means more. Grenada is a mess right now and wouldn't put up much of a fight against anyone. Guatemala on the other hand has been beating solid teams all year and dismantled St. Vincent. Don't shut the door on this team yet but they appear to be way out of their depth in this group.

Going Forward

Four more games to be played in October. Grenada and St. Vincent will again not play on the same matchday as everyone else. On the 7th, Guatemala travels to St. Vincent in what will likely be a 3rd straight win for Guatemala. Grenada will also travel to Belize in a must-win game for both teams (Grenada to avoid probable elimination and Belize to keep pace with Guatemala).

On October 11th, Belize and Guatemala have their rematch in Guatemala City. Winner of that game could very well put themselves in the driver's seat to win the group heading in to November. And on the 15th, Grenada hosts St. Vincent and will look to avenge a terrible loss on the road in September.

No teams are eligible for elimination on the 7th. Certainly there will be some facing it on the 11th/15th though.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts

Actual:

Guatemala-6 pts
Belize-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-3 pts
Grenada-0 pts

Not my best effort. Still can't get over how pitiful Grenada has been. Rewarded with a top seed and can't accomplish anything on the field.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

September Review: Asia-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Iran def. Indonesia 3-0 in Tehran, Iran on September 2, 2011
  • Iran Goals-Javad Nekounam (53',74'), Andranik Teymourian (87')
About what you would expect from a game between these two. Indonesia was able to hold Iran scoreless for the first half on the strength of some determined defending, but when the floodgates opened in the second, there was nothing Indonesia could do. Nice display of offensive persistency by Iran first in getting the go-ahead goal and then in piling it on throughout the half to ensure the victory.

Game 2-Bahrain tied Qatar 0-0 in Riffa, Bahrain on September 2, 2011

Not the best performance by either team in their opener although if you had to name a better team in this game it would be Bahrain. Neither side managed to threaten the opposing goal but Bahrain held the advantage in possession and tempo throughout the game. Both teams have high hopes of advancing from this group and will need to turn draws in to wins in the future in order to do that.

Game 3-Bahrain def. Indonesia 2-0 in Jakarta, Indonesia on September 6, 2011
  • Bahrain Goals-Sayed Dhiya Shubbar (45+1'), Ismael Abdul-Latif (71')
One thing is certain, Indonesia will not be pulling any spectacular upsets like Thailand is in Group 4. A pair of decisive losses in both games so far puts them squarely at the bottom of the group with no easy opponents on their schedule. Like Iran, Bahrain had to be patient in breaking down the Indonesian defence to find a goal but once they did, this game was in the bag for the Gulf nation.

Game 4-Iran tied Qatar 1-1 in Doha, Qatar on September 6, 2011
  • Iran Goals-Hadi Aghili (46')
  • Qatar Goals-Mohamed El-Sayed (56')
Well, we've certainly this song and dance from Iran before. Despite a thoroughly dominant performance against a weaker opponent, Iran was only able to manage a draw. A bevy of missed scoring chances and a single defensive lapse provided the 1-1 scoreline which Qatar will happily take from this game. Iran still leads the group but giving points away needlessly is something Iranian fans are all too familiar with seeing, and it is something Iran has to correct.

Thoughts

Bahrain-Nice start to the group but I'm curious to see how they perform against Iran. Outplaying Qatar and Indonesia for a draw and a win is one thing but Iran is a whole other animal Bahrain must deal with. A win sends but Bahrain to the top of the group; a loss presumably puts them in third place. A lot to play for against Iran and Bahrain will have to be at their best to defeat them.

Indonesia-Another team that is simply out of their depth in this round. That's not meant as a criticism, there's just only so much you can ask a team to do and some things are beyond a team's capacity. All that can be asked of Indonesia is to play 100% and maybe they can play a spoiler role down the road.

Iran-Best team in the group. Needs to play like it though. Being the best team on paper is one thing but they can't afford not to play to their best in this group; Bahrain and Qatar could both finish ahead of them if they do. If they keep their heads, they'll be fine. If they don't, the roller-coaster will continue.

Qatar-Not as bad a start as the standings might indicate. 2 draws but they came against the 2 other teams capable of advancing from the group which will give Qatar confidence. With a pair of games against Indonesia and a home game against Bahrain forming the remainder of their 2011 schedule, there's no reason why they can't enter the final game against Iran undefeated.

Going Forward

Qatar travels to Indonesia and despite being on the road, they will be favoured to pick up their first win of the group. Qatar can't afford to lose or tie that game with 2 draws already while Indonesia will be desperately seeking anything positive.

Bahrain visits Iran and that will be a very intriguing matchup. Bahrain is playing well right now while Iran is stumbling at the moment. Can Bahrain manage to pick up points in a hostile Iranian environment is the question though. Very few teams are ever able to defeat Iran in Iran.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Iran-6 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Qatar-1 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

Actual:

Iran-4 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Qatar-2 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

An Iranian letdown away from perfection. I'll take that.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

North America: Round 2-Group 5 Primer

World Ranking

Belize-148th (22nd North America)
Grenada-118th (16th North America)
Guatemala-113th (13th North America)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (25th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Belize at Grenada
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
September 6, 2011
  • Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
  • Guatemala at Belize
October 7, 2011
  • Grenada at Belize
  • Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines
October 11, 2011
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
  • Belize/Guatemala
November 11, 2011
  • Grenada at Guatemala
  • St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
November 15, 2011
  • Guatemala at Grenada
  • Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines
Past International Records

Belize
  • 2011 to date: 2-2-1
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
  • vs. Group opponents: 0-4-2
Grenada
  • 2011 to date: 0-5-2
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-1
  • vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6
Guatemala
  • 2011 to date: 2-5-2
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-2
  • vs. Group opponents: 6-0-2
St.Vincent/Grenadines
  • 2011 to date: 0-0-1
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
  • vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6
Team Glimpses

Belize

The highest ranked team in Round 1, they've leapt from 26th to 22nd in CONCACAF on the strength of 2 victories against Montserrat. Of all of the lowest-seeded teams, comprised primarily of Round 1 winners, Belize has the best shot at possibly advancing to Round 3. Part of that is calibre of team they are able to put on the field but they're also going to benefit from having a very weak group. Despite being the lowest seed, Belize is actually currently ranked 3rd in the group and the top-seed Grenada hasn't won a competitive game all year. Belize has been given a group in which they can make noise in if they so choose. Belize's team is formed primarily of domestic players and they will rely heavily on 5 players who play in the strong Honduran leagu, including goalkeeper Shane Moody-Orio and forward Deon McCaulay who scored 4 goals in their 2-leg Round 1 matchup with Montserrat. Those Honduran-based players form the core of Belize's team and if they are on their game, Belize will have a legitimate chance of advancing from this group. Last game that Belize played against a group opponent was a friendly against Guatemala in 2010, which they lost 4-2.

Grenada

Easily, the worst top seed in Round 2, Grenada is in my opinion not even the primary challenger for the top spot. I believe they firmly rest third in a pecking order in this group behind Guatemala and Belize. Grenada is winless on the year and in their last 10 matches dating back to 2010. Most recently they competed at the 2011 Gold Cup where they posted losses to Jamaica, Honduras and groupmate Guatemala, allowing a combined 15 goals in the process. I've said before that momentum matters in international soccer and this is a perfect example of a team that is caught in a downward spiral. One saving grace for Grenada is that they won't have to deal with Guatemala until November, so that's hopefully enough time to pick up some wins and erase the memory of a 4-0 loss in June to exit the Gold Cup.

Guatemala

No less then 3 coaches of top-seeded Round 2 teams said ahead of the preliminary draw that the one team they wanted to avoid at this stage was Guatemala, and with reason. Amongst their records this year: wins against Grenada, draws against Honduras and Bolivia, a narrow loss to Mexico (Guatemala led at halftime). It's especially true that this group would have wanted to avoid Guatemala. None of their group opponents have ever defeated Guatemala. While they are the favourite in the group, they will have a tough task ahead of them; Belize played well in Round 1 and has competed with Guatemala before and there's no telling when the lightswitch might go on again for Grenada. Between those two opponents, Guatemala will still need to be at their best if they hope to return to Round 3 as they did last campaign.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

St.Vincent have the honour of both the longest name of a nation participating in the World Cup as well as the most name variations which I write out depending on my mood and how much space I have to work with. Saint Vincent is a team outside the bottom echelon in CONCACAF but not one who is a going to really challenge to take the group. It's unfortunate that they haven't been able to string together some positive results and have fallen so far down in the continental rankings (they were 13th in CONCACAF last qualifying campaign). I wouldn't rule them out entirely though; in a pair of friendlies with "top-seeded" Grenada last year they posted a 1-0 loss and a 0-0 draw. If they can repeat that performance then thye might have a shot. We'll know a lot more about the form they're in after Sunday as they play a pair of friendlies tomorrow and Sunday against Antigua/Barbuda (ranked 11th in CONCACAF).

September Games:

Game 1
Belize at Grenada
September 2, 2011
Time: 3:30 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada

Game 2
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
September 2, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala

Game 3
Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
September 6, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines

Game 4
Guatemala at Belize
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize

Group 5 is very intriguing because I'm not sure exactly where each team stands right now relative to each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see some timid play to open the group and probably a fair number of draws throughout the course of the campaign. Belize/Grenada in Game 1 is a tossup. I expect Guatemala to win Game 2. Grenada should win Game 3 but nothing they've done this year makes me convinced they will and Game 4 is again a tossup. It's going to be fun to watch, simply because there is no overwhelming top seed like we've seen in most of the other CONCACAF groups so far.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts

Friday, August 19, 2011

Asia: Round 3-Group 5 Primer

World Ranking

Bahrain-100th (11th Asia)
Indonesia-137th (21st Asia)
Iran-54th (4th Asia)
Qatar-90th (7th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011
  • Indonesia at Iran
  • Qatar at Bahrain
September 6, 2011
  • Bahrain at Indonesia
  • Iran at Qatar
October 11, 2011
  • Bahrain at Iran
  • Qatar at Indonesia
November 11, 2011
  • Indonesia at Qatar
  • Iran at Bahrain
November 15, 2011
  • Bahrain at Qatar
  • Iran at Indonesia
February 29, 2012
  • Qatar at Iran
  • Indonesia at Bahrain
Past International Records

Bahrain
  • 2011 to date: 1-3-2
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 7-5-6
  • vs. Group opponents: 14-14-17
Indonesia
  • 2011 to date: 1-0-1
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
  • vs. Group opponents: 3-7-4
Iran
  • 2011 to date: 8-1-0
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 5-1-8
  • vs. Group opponents: 17-7-6
Qatar
  • 2011 to date: 3-3-1
  • 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-6-4
  • vs. Group opponents: 14-20-15
Team Glimpses

Bahrain

A surprise near-finalist in 2010, Bahrain fell one game short, losing to New Zealand in the second leg of the inter-confederational playoff to be denied a birth in South Africa. Not to undercut the magnitude of how far they got in 2010 but Bahrain was the beneficiary of a favourable draw in that campaign. Once in Round 3, Bahrain was fortunate enough to draw Oman and Thailand, two of the weakest remaining teams at the time which gave them breathing room to advance. The same can be said in Round 4, where they drew Qatar and Uzbekistan, two of the few teams at that point in qualifying Bahrain could manage victories against. They grabbed 3rd place in their Round 4 group despite a losing record and got past Saudi Arabia in the AFC playoff on a pair of draws (away goals giving them the tiebreaker). Point I'm trying to make is that Bahrain is a very underwhelming opponent considering they received a bye to this stage. Having just 1 win in 6 games this year adds to that image. If they wish to return to the final stage of Asian qualifying, Bahrain needs to find the form that nearly put them in the 2010 finals. And quickly.

Indonesia

Of the 20 teams in Round 3, only Lebanon is ranked lower then Indonesia. Biggest detriment to Indonesia is their schedule. They don't play nearly as many games as other countries (only 2 in 2011-the Round 2 matches), and when they do it is typically against fellow SE Asian countries, none of which are world-beating nations. For a national team composed entirely of domestic club players, they do not challenge themselves enough to improve to a level where they can compete with the rest of the world. Unfortunately for Indonesia, they're going to learn that lesson the hard way in this group. Having narrowly defeated Turkmenistan to get here, they do not possess the depth, skill or coaching to compete with any of their group mates.

Iran

Another nation with a very proud soccer tradition although perhaps it isn't as warranted as a team like Saudi Arabia. 2 of their 3 Finals appearances have come since 1998 but they only have 1 victory in a Finals to show for it. A 3-time victor in the Asian Cup, they haven't finished higher then 3rd since 1976. Iranian fans do have a slight tendency to overstate the significance of their team. Nevertheless, there's reason for bravado as when they want to play, Iran is arguably the best team in Asia. Key words there: when they want to play. Iran has been plagued by a lack of focus and teamwork for a long time. Inability to close out games, lack of hustle on the field, sloppy tackling, an excessive number of cards, etc. Skill and talent are not the problems for Iran, it's about attitude. Tasked with keeping the Iranian team on track is former Portugal coach Carlos Queiroz. If Queiroz can keep the Iranian players focused on winning, they will be in the mix until the end of qualifying. If they get off-track, things could get ugly.

Qatar

I mentioned this in the qualifying breakdown but I'll say it again; Qatar is going to be the most interesting nation to watch in the next decade. Not just for 2014 qualifying but in all the games beyond until 2022 when they host the World Cup. Reason being is that based on their current world ranking, Qatar is slated to be the worst ranked host nation in World Cup history, an honour currently held by South Africa. No one wants to be embarrassed at home in a major tournament, so I anticipate Qatar to make huge strides forward in the years to come. Will it be enough in 2014? It's possible. 90th in the world, that still puts Qatar at 7th in the continent, within realistic reach of a qualifying spot. I don't think they're quite ready to make that leap though, as evidenced by a .500 record in 2011 which includes a 2-1 loss to Vietnam in their last game. Qatar will definitely be looking to get to Round 4 at a minimum though and neighbour Bahrain is the likely obstacle in accomplishing that.

September Games:

Game 1
Indonesia at Iran
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Azadi Stadium, Tehran, Iran

Game 2
Qatar at Bahrain
September 2, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Bahrain National Stadium, Riffa, Bahrain

Game 3
Bahrain at Indonesia
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia

Game 4
Iran at Qatar
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:30 pm EDT
Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar

Iran gets a nice present to open qualifying with. I do feel they're on the right track with their 2011 results and a new coach. Even with a difficult road game against Qatar, I think they'll be coming out of this set of games with a pair of victories.

Which makes Qatar-Bahrain the must see matchup of this series. Not only are the teams almost equal in calibre, they are very close neighbours (est. distance between the two capitals=120 km). Only one of these teams is likely to move on and neither have been spectacular in 2011. If one of these two can raise their game enough to pull out a victory, they'll have the driver's seat towards a Round 4 berth. Slight advantage to Bahrain for playing at home and not having to worry about Iran immediately folllowing.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Iran-6 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Qatar-1 pts
Indonesia-0 pts