CONCACAF Round 3 Groups

With winners of all 6 groups in Round 2 now decided, we now know exactly what the groups for North America Round 3 will be. They are as follows:

Group 1



Group 2



Group 3



Initial thoughts are that the groups range in difficulty from 2 being the toughest to 1 being the easiest, with 3 closer to 2 on that spectrum.

Group 3 will be a very demanding group. All 4 teams have the potential to advance although Honduras and Panama should be slight favourites. Group 2 is similar except the overall calibre of the group is even better. Half of the participants competed in Round 4 last campaign, and Guyana eliminated a 4th Round 4 member when they knocked out Trinidad in Round 2. Mexico will be favoured to go on with either Costa Rica or El Salvador. Those 2 teams will have a war trying to determine which one advances.

As for Group 1, USA is way ahead of all the other opponents in this group. It was going to be the easiest group to begin with. But upsetting performances by Grenada and Haiti mean that neither Round 2 participant was even a top seed in their group. Jamaica and Guatemala will be pesky but USA should have no problem getting out of this group. Guatemala has been very strong in qualifying but Jamaica might be too much to overcome at this point.

Game Schedule is yet to be released although matches are slated to take place between June-October 2012.

Way too early prediction for Round 4 participants:

Costa Rica
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Panama
USA

November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 2

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Barbados-148th (Up 2), 23rd N. America (Down 1)
Bermuda-132nd (Up 57), 19th N. America (Up 12)
Guyana-97th (Up 19), 11th N. America (Up 4)
Trinidad and Tobago-79th (Up 1), 7th N. America (Even)

Yes, the numbers are accurate for Bermuda and Guyana. Shows how ineffective the ranking system is, especially in the lower half of the standings. A win and a draw this past month were enough to shoot Bermuda past roughly 30% of teams in the entire world.

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados 0-2 Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Barbados
• Bermuda 1-2 Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Bermuda
• Guyana 2-0 Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados 0-4 Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana 1-1 Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 14, 2011

• Bermuda at Barbados

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago

November Games:

Game 9
Barbados at Bermuda
November 11, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Game 10
Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Location: Providence Stadium, Providence, Guyana

Game 11
Bermuda at Barbados
November 14, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda*

Game 12
Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
November 15, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

*-Barbados and Bermuda will play both games in Hamilton, Bermuda, even though Barbados is supposed to be playing Game 11 at home. Haven't found an official release as to why that is although with both teams eliminated already, it might just be logistically easier for both teams to play in the same location twice rather then have to arrange extra travel for no reason. I believe this is the case as Puerto Rico-Saint Lucia are doing the same thing in Group 4. If I find anything to the contrary, I will clarify this.

With Barbados and Bermuda eliminated, this group rests solely on the results of Guyana and Trinidad. If Guyana wins either game, they will advance to Round 3. And if Trinidad doesn't get 4 points out of the games, Guyana will also advance. Even though Guyana only needs a win or 2 draws to advance, that task will be easier said then done. In 13 career matches between these teams, Guyana has NEVER beaten Trinidad. They have drawn 3 times, with 2 of those draws coming within the past 3 years. If ever there was an opportune time to pick up their first win against Trinidad, now is it for Guyana.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Trinidad and Tobago-13 pts
x-Guyana-11 pts
x-Bermuda-10 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Guyana has impressed in their first 4 games but Trinidad will be their toughest opponent so far and they have never lost to Guyana. Trinidad needs 4 points and I think they'll get it, but just by the skin of their teeth. Combined scoreline in the last 3 games between these two has been 4-3 in favour of Trinidad. It's going to be low-scoring and it's going to be some even matches.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Guyana def. Barbados 2-0 in Bridgetown, Barbados on October 7, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Anthony Abrams (73'), Chris Nurse (87')

A pair of late goals saved Guyana in their first road game of qualifying as they picked up their 3rd win in as many games. Guyana struggled to get things going on the road but kept plugging in the offensive zone and had the game in hand once they scored their first. For Barbados, this was their 3rd consecutive goalless outing in qualifying.

Game 6-Bermuda def. Trinidad/Tobago 2-1 in Hamilton, Bermuda on October 7, 2011

• Bermuda Goals-Antwan Russell (52'), Nahki Wells (63')
• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Kevin Molino (82')

Just like in last qualifying campaign, Bermuda has made itself a thorn in the side of a superior Trinidad team, picking up an upset at home and severely hindering Trinidad's odds of advancing. The game appeared over with 10 minutes remaining but Trinidad was able to cut the deficit in half and created havoc around the Bermuda goal for the remainder of the game but was unable to pick up a draw.

Game 7-Trinidad/Tobago def. Barbados 4-0 in Port of Spain, Trinidad/Tobago on October 11, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Lester Peltier (6', 55', 63'), Hughton Hector (90')

Lester Peltier led the way with a hat trick as Trinidad coasted to a win at home against Barbados. Trinidad's 4 goals matched their offensive output from their first 3 games and should give them a confidence boost after a devastating loss to Bermuda.

Game 8-Bermuda tied Guyana 1-1 in Hamilton, Bermuda on October 11, 2011

• Bermuda Goals-John Barry Nusum (71'), Ricky Shakes (81')

Bermuda continued their reign of terror against the top of this group, drawing with Guyana in a game they were minutes away from winning. Unfortunately for Bermuda, Ricky Shakes scored for Guyana late in the second half, giving Guyana a single point and eliminating Bermuda in the process. Had Bermuda won, they could have conceivably come back to win this group, but will instead be watching Round 3 from home.

Thoughts

Barbados-Eliminated and have zero goals to their credit in qualifying. Wasn't expected to challenge in this group and haven't managed to be a threat in any of their games so far. Has a pair of games remaining against Bermuda which gives them a chance to get some points from qualifying but Bermuda might be too tough a challenge for this team at this point.

Bermuda-Predicted they would have some success this month playing both games at home and sure enough, that was the case. Drawing Guyana hurts as it eliminated them but they can still emerge with a .500 record or better pending their November results against Barbados.

Guyana-Haven't lost a game in 4 qualifying matches yet but that has been against a pair of weaker teams and they haven't always looked impressive in knocking off those teams. They'll have a shot to advance to Round 3 and eliminated 2010 Round 4 participant Trinidad next month. A win in one of their 2 matches will be enough to achieve that milestone.

Trinidad/Tobago-It's yet to be seen what effect the Bermuda loss will have on their chances of advancement but it isn't helpful to say the least. Fortunately for them, Bermuda also prevented Guyana from taking full points in October so there is a shot for this team to make up the gap in points. Should be very evenly matched with Guyana in their upcoming series.

Going Forward

Bermuda and Barbados will meet for a pair of games with no effect on group advancement. Bermuda has a chance to actually climb to second place in the group while Barbados will need to win both games just to avoid finishing last in the group. Guyana and Trinidad will meet as well for a pair of games which will decide the group winner. Magic number to look for in those two games is 4. That is the number of points Trinidad needs to grab from the two games in order to advance to Round 3.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Trinidad and Tobago-10 pts
Guyana-10 pts
x-Bermuda-2 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Actual:

Guyana-10 pts
Trinidad and Tobago-9 pts
x-Bermuda-4 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Bermuda wreaked even more chaos on the group then I suspected, defeating Trinidad outright before tying Guyana.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 2

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Barbados-150th (Down 5), 22nd N. America (Down 1).
Bermuda-189th (Down 4), 31st N. America (No Change).
Guyana-116th (Down 2), 15th N. America (Down 2).
Trinidad and Tobago-80th (Up 8), 7th N. America (Up 1).

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados 0-2 Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Barbados
• Bermuda 1-2 Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
• Guyana at Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana at Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
• Bermuda at Barbados

October Games:

Game 5
Guyana at Barbados
October 7, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados

Game 6
Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
October 7, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Game 7
Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
October 11, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Game 8
Guyana at Bermuda
October 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

Reverse legs of September which saw Guyana and Trinidad pick up an expected pair of victories. 6 more points apiece should be the expectation again in October however there will be obstacles to face. Trinidad opens October against Bermuda, a team that has been a thorn in their sides the past few years and nearly eliminated them in 2010 qualifying. And Guyana must play 2 consecutive road legs after playing both September matches at home. Barbados and Bermuda are both in all likelihood eliminated at this point but both have the potential to be spoilers for the two front-runners in the group.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Trinidad and Tobago-10 pts
Guyana-10 pts
x-Bermuda-2 pts
x-Barbados-0 pts

Going out on a limb here and I think Bermuda had the capability to cause some potential upsets playing 2 home legs in succession.

September Review: North America-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Trinidad/Tobago def. Bermuda 1-0 in Port of Spain, Trinidad/Tobago on September 2, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago-Kenwyne Jones (45')

Really shaky opening performance from the 2006 Finals participant. A lack of finishing touch and some very shaky goalkeeping are just some of the problems facing Trinidad after this game. Those problems won't cripple them against teams like Bermuda, but when they face Guyana in November or if they advance to the next round, they won't be able to get by on performances like this one.

Game 2-Guyana def. Barbados 2-0 in Georgetown, Guyana on September 2, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Shawn Beveney (26'), Charles Pollard (73')

Strong opener from Guyana who held a noticeable advantage in speed and fitness in this match. Guyana was able to control the ball for most of the game and wore down the Barbados defence on their way to a 2-goal victory. With a number of other quality scoring chances including a disallowed goal for a questionable offsides call, Guyana could not have asked for a better start to qualifying. Key for Guyana has to be managing to repeat this performance consistently, especially when it comes time to face Trinidad.

Game 3-Trinidad/Tobago def. Barbados 2-0 in Bridgetown, Barbados on September 6, 2011

• Trinidad/Tobago Goals-Keon Daniel (17'), Darryl Roberts (67')

Better showing by Trinidad who like Guyana were able to exploit a sluggish Barbados team and wear them down on the way to an easy victory. Positive sign for Trinidad is that they were getting goals from people other then English Premier League striker Kenwyne Jones, a necessity if they wish to advance through qualifying.

Game 4-Guyana def. Bermuda 2-1 in Georgetown, Guyana on September 6, 2011

• Guyana Goals-Vurlon Mills (50',60')
• Bermuda Goals-Khano Smith (90')

Another day and another comfortable victory for Guyana who again were able to control possession and create opportunities offensively with their speed. Guyana missed some opportunities which would have put the game away and will not be pleased that they allowed Bermuda an opportunity to tie so late in the game but they have played remarkably well in two performances so far.

Thoughts

Barbados/Bermuda-I'm pairing these teams together because I'm just going to end up saying the same thing for both. In a nutshell, they're done. Down 6 points with 4 games to play, they really need a miracle to advance from this group and I haven't seen anything from either that leads me to believe they're capable of doing that. Maybe there's a slight glimmer of hope for Bermuda since they get 2 home games in October but I doubt it.

Guyana-Much better team than I was expecting coming in and I see no reason why they can't top Trinidad and advance to Round 3. Strong team offensively with a lot of speed and if they can refine their offence slightly and eliminate the number of offsides calls they take, they'll give opposing defences fits. Haven't seen a lot from their defence which could be a little suspect. We won't know that until November when they play Trinidad though.

Trinidad/Tobago-They improved from Game 1 to Game 2, now they need to make sure they continue to do so. Based on what they displayed in September, I don't think they can be the favourite to advance in this group. That can certainly change though depending on what steps they take to improve as a team, particularly in the offensive end. Too many scoring chances wasted against lower-calibre teams which will kill you as you move forward. Look for game 2 starting goalkeeper Marvin Phillip to get the nod through qualifying over game 1 starter Anthony Warner. Warner was very shaky in net, unable to confidently handle simple passes back from his defenders.

Going Forward

On October 7th, Bermuda will host Trinidad while Barbados hosts Guyana. On the 11th Barbados will travel to Trinidad while Guyana is at Bermuda.

Barring any major surprises, Guyana and Trinidad should finish October both with 12 points setting up a November showdown to advance. Both Barbados and Bermuda will officially be eliminated on the 7th if they LOSE their games or if one DRAWS and the other LOSES. Only wins from here on out will save them.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts

Actual:

Guyana-6 pts
Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Bermuda-0 pts
Barbados-0 pts

I was really unconfident in picking this group in August. Apparently that was unjustified. It's a 2-team group, plain and simple.

North America: Round 2-Group 2 Primer

World Ranking

Barbados-145th (21st North America)
Bermuda-185th (31st North America)
Guyana-114th (13th North America)
Trinidad and Tobago-88th (8th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
• Barbados at Guyana

September 6, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
• Bermuda at Guyana

October 7, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
• Guyana at Barbados

October 11, 2011

• Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
• Guyana at Bermuda

November 11, 2011

• Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
• Barbados at Bermuda

November 15, 2011

• Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
• Bermuda at Barbados

Past International Records

Barbados

• 2011 to date: 0-2-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
• vs. Group opponents: 10-18-11

Bermuda

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-1-1
• vs. Group opponents: 6-7-4

Guyana

• 2011 to date: 2-0-1
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
• vs. Group opponents: 4-16-8

Trinidad and Tobago

• 2011 to date: 1-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 5-8-5
• vs. Group opponents: 26-5-9

Team Glimpses

Barbados

All hope is not lost for Barbados in this group. They played a trio of games against groupmate Guyana in May of this year, picking up a draw and a pair of 1 goal losses. Not exactly going to intimidate their opponents in this group but it might give them a bit of confidence that they can compete with them. Barbados will be a thorn in the side of all of their opponents in this group. They don't hold any recent marquee wins but neither do they have any horrendous losses on their record since last qualifying campaign when they flamed out in a Round 2 pairing against the U.S. Without question they need to raise their game; almost every team does and Barbados is definitely a longshot in this group. But it isn't an impossibility for the Caribbean nation. Their first four games are against Guyana and Trinidad. They don't need to take every game but if Barbados can manage 1 victory against each team, they might be poised to have a shot at the group.

Bermuda

Good news for Bermuda. Top-seeded Trinidad & Tobago was the team they met up with in Round 2 in 2010 qualifying. They split the results and lost 3-2 on aggregate. Bad news for Bermuda. They haven't played since August 2008 and that win was their last in an international game. I'm having a hard time reconciling Bermuda's 2010 qualifying results with present form. By all accounts, a Round 1 win and a near Round 2 upset of an eventual CONCACAF finalist is a great result for Bermuda. But then they just stopped playing and their ranking has plummeted (because they haven't played). Conventional wisdom says they're at the bottom of the pile in Group 2, but then again the last results I have to go off of suggest otherwise. This will subsequently be one of the teams I'm watching very closely in the first couple games, more out of curiosity then anything. If they can pull an early upset, then this group is truly wide open. If not then might I suggest to Bermuda to play a few more games. Because they definitely had some momentum last campaign.

Guyana

Along with Suriname, the other South American nation that is a member of CONCACAF. Barring any major surprises, Guyana should be the primary threat facing Trinidad and Tobago at the top of the group. They've met twice in the past year, drawing in a friendly in Guyana and losing 2-1 to Trinidad in Trinidad at the 2010 Caribbean Championship. They'll some time to sit and ponder their rematches though, as they won't occur until November. It's imperative for Guyana to go in to those games with 3 or 4 wins. They can't afford to be dropping games against a pair of pesky teams in Barbados and Bermuda. Sights will be on Trinidad throughout the group but any slipup before that will be devastating.

Trinidad and Tobago

The top seed in the group, they post a formidable record against their group opponents, with 26 wins and just 5 losses in 40 games. Trinidad haven't been at their best since 2010 qualifying ended. They picked up 3 losses in their next 4 losses and haven't come close to their qualfiying form since 2009. A 3-0 win against India recently in a tune-up shows that they're still a dangerous team in the Caribbean. One advantage afforded to Trinidad is their new head coaching hire Otto Pfister. Pfister led a surprising Togo team at the 2006 World Cup Finals and then led Cameroon to a final in the 2008 African Cup of Nations. He's known for having an oft-tumultuous relationship with his players but there is no denying is pedigree coaching on the international stage. Trinidad also benefits from having a number of players playing abroad in major professional leagues, most notably: Kenwyne Jones, first-choice striker for Stoke City in the English Premier League.

September Games:

Game 1
Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Game 2
Barbados at Guyana
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:30 pm EDT
Location: Providence Stadium, Georgetown, Guyana

Game 3
Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
September 6, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados

Game 4
Guyana at Bermuda
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda

My gut tells me Guyana and Trinidad pick up a pair of victories this go-around but for some reason I'm really not confident in either one right now. There are any number of permutations as to how this group will look September 7th which is exciting as an observer, this early in qualifying. Biggest upset potential: Barbados at home against Trinidad.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

.....???

Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts