Syria Disqualified; Replaced by Tajikistan

FIFA announced today that Syria has been disqualified from the remainder of 2014 World Cup Qualifying for fielding an ineligible player.

Article 18 of the FIFA statutes reads as follows:

If a Player has more than one nationality, or if a Player acquires a new
nationality, or if a Player is eligible to play for several representative
teams due to nationality, he may, up to his 21st birthday, and only
once, request to change the Association for which he is eligible to
play international matches to the Association of another country of
which he holds nationality, subject to the following conditions:

(a) He has not played a match (either in full or in part) in an official
competition at “A” international level for his current Association,
and at the time of his first full or partial appearance in an
international match in an official competition for his current
Association, he already had the nationality of the representative
team for which he wishes to play.

While the player is not named in the FIFA report, sources in Syria say the player is forward George Mourad who played in both games for Syria in Round 2. Mourad apparently played in 2 games for Sweden in 2005, which would make him ineligible to play for Syria. According to Syrian officials, Mourad took part in games that were part of Olympic qualifying and not 'A' level games. However a Swedish fan website clearly shows that Mourad's first international game was against South Korea, a game in which he was 22 years old, and which FIFA's archives show was an international friendly (an 'A' level match) and not an Olympic qualifier. As a result, Mourad is indeed ineligible to play for Syria and the correct call was made by FIFA.

As a result, both of Syria's Round 2 games have been awarded to Tajikistan as 3-0 victories. Because the draw has already taken place, Tajikistan will simply take Syria's spot in Group 3 along with Japan, North Korea and Uzbekistan. First game will be at home against Uzbekistan on September 2nd, followed by a road game against North Korea September 6th.

Asia: Round 3-Group 3 Primer

World Ranking

Japan-16th (1st Asia)
North Korea-115th (16th Asia)
Syria-104th (12th Asia)
Uzbekistan-83rd (6th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea at Japan
• Uzbekistan at Syria

September 6, 2011

• Syria at North Korea
• Japan at Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Syria at Japan
• Uzbekistan at North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Syria

November 15, 2011

• Syria at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Syria

Past International Records

Japan

• 2011 to date: 5-0-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 10-3-5
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 17-5-7
  

North Korea

• 2011 to date: 4-4-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-5-6
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 7-8-8
  

Syria

• 2011 to date: 5-3-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-2-2
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 2-8-3
  

Uzbekistan

• 2011 to date: 5-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-7-1
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 1-6-4
  

Team Glimpses

Japan

Undoubtedly the top team in Asia right now, ranked #1 on the continent and fresh off a victory in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup earlier this year. Japan was rewarded for that victory with about as difficult of a qualifying draw you could imagine. The only qualifying group in Asia with two 2010 finals participants (North Korea), Japan also has to deal with a Syrian team that dropped just two games last campaign and an Uzbek side that was in the semifinals of the Asian Cup. With a roster bolstered by a majority of Europe-based players, Japan should be a strong contender to return to the finals in 2014. Led by CSKA Moscow forward Keisuke Honda, Japan's attacking players will need to be focused on finding the net more then ever in this group which features a bevy of defensive-minded teams, particularly North Korea. Very difficult group for Japan who will be relying heavily on their talent advantage to get them through.

North Korea

The surprise inclusion of the 2010 Finals, North Korean football has plummeted back down to Earth since their 2010 qualifying campaign. They bombed at the Finals, dropping all 3 games and allowing 12 goals in the process. The only meaningful games they've played since were in the 2011 Asian Cup, where they could only manage a draw with U.A.E. in 3 games. Nevertheless, the North Korean's style remains a challenge for any team to deal with. You will see it particularly in a long qualifying stage like in the World Cup campaign, but North Korea has a tendency to view a draw as a win. 0-0 is a score the North Koreans always seem to strive for and if they can manage a goal then great, 1-0 victory! Sounds a little counter-productive, until you see that they went 6-2-6 in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 qualifying. In those 14 games: 11 goals for, 5 goals against. Not a team that will pick up a ton of wins, but a team that certainly won't take a lot of losses either, which makes them a very dangerous opponent in qualifying.

Syria

You know it's a tough group when the 12th ranked team in the continent is best guess for a fourth-place finisher. Syria has been very impressive in 2011. Narrow losses to Saudi Arabia and Japan at the Asian Cup were followed by a victory against Jordan. Since, they've defeated Iraq and Jordan again amongst others establishing themselves as a tough opponent in the Asian zone. Biggest hurdle for Syria will be in containing the explosive offensive attacks that Japan and Uzbekistan possess. In 10 games in 2011, Syria has posted just one shutout, in Round 2 qualifying against Tajikistan. With less talent and depth then the other sides in the group, Syria cannot afford to be surrendering goals at the pace they have been as they lack the firepower to make up for it. Also a challenge for Syria: travel. Due to political strife, they were unable to play at home in Round 2 and are the only unconfirmed venue for the first set of Asian home games, which leads me to believe they won't be playing in Syria any time soon. With 2 trips to the Far East and a trip to Central Asia already in the cards, not being able to play at home could cripple the Syrian side.

Uzbekistan

I've said previously but I'll say it again: the darkhorse team worldwide that I think stands a great chance at qualifying. Not sure if they should be considered an underdog ranked 6th in the conference and fresh off a semifinal performance at the continental cup, but the reaction I generally get when I say Uzbekistan could qualify is incredulity so darkhorse label applies. Uzbekistan got to the final round of qualifying in 2010 but struggled in a group that featured the likes of Australia and Japan. They've drawn an equally arduous task in this group but a roster that is almost entirely returning from that campaign with the experience gained should be prepared to handle adversity this time around. The ability to score a lot of goals combined with staunch goalkeeping from Ignatiy Nesterov should give Uzbekistan all the tools required to advance to Round 4.

September Games

Game 1
North Korea at Japan
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:25 am EDT
Location: Saitama Stadium, Saitama, Japan

Game 2
Uzbekistan at Syria
September 2, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: TBA (Syria's Round 2 home leg was played in Amman, Jordan)

Game 3
Syria at North Korea
September 6, 2011
Time: 2:30 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 4
Japan at Uzbekistan
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Syria's the big loser in September matches. Uzbekistan will be a tough opener outside of Syria, and they'll have to immediately follow that with a cross-continent trip to Pyongyang to face the team they might actually be able to defeat more often then not. They're in serious danger of being buried at the bottom of this group right off the bat.

Japan and North Korea form an intriguing opening match, particularly to see what form North Korea is on. If the game is close then North Korea should be a threat in Group 3. If it's a blowout, then Japan and Uzbekistan are probably looking good to advance, with first place likely in the balance when they meet in Tashkent on the 6th.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts