November 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 3

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Japan-17th (Down 2), 1st Asia (Even)
North Korea-124th (Down 3), 17th Asia (Even)
Tajikistan-130th (Down 6), 18th Asia (Even)
Uzbekistan-73rd (Up 6), 6th Asia (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea 0-1 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 Tajikistan

September 6, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-1 North Korea
• Japan 1-1 Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-8 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Tajikistan

November 15, 2011

• Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Tajikistan

November Games:

Game 7
Japan at Tajikistan
November 11, 2011
Time: 4:00 am EST
Location: Central Stadium, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Game 8
North Korea at Uzbekistan
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Game 9
Japan at North Korea
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 am EST
Location: Kim Il-Sung Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 10
Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Both Japan and Uzbekistan have an opportunity to clinch advancement on the 11th and have favourable matchups to do so. Japan visits Tajikistan fresh off an 8-0 drubbing of the Central Asian nation in October and Uzbekistan gets North Korea at home in a return leg of their previous matchup. Japan is likely looking at a win but the North Korea-Uzbekistan game will be competitive. North Korea needs at least a point, preferably a win in order to stay alive.

On the 15th, Uzbekistan hosts their neighbours and like Japan will be favoured to grab 3 points. North Korea will host Japan in what will again be a must-win game should they still be alive in the group. A loss would leave them at 6 points maximum with Japan and presumably Uzbekistan both at 10, eliminating the Koreans.

Post-November Standing Predictions:

a-Japan: 13 pts
a-Uzbekistan: 13 pts
x-North Korea: 3 pts
x-Tajikistan: 0 pts

Japan and Uzbekistan keep getting better while North Korea is just spinning their wheels. One way or another, Japan and Uzbekistan should both be in to Round 4 by the middle of the month.

October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Uzbekistan def. North Korea 1-0 in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 11th

• Uzbekistan Goals-Aleksandr Geynrikh (15')

North Korea again struggled to find the back of the net and an early goal surrendered to Uzbekistan's Aleksandr Geynrikh was enough to give Uzbekistan the win and a 4-point advantage over the Koreans for second place in the group.

Game 6-Japan def. Tajikistan 8-0 in Osaka, Japan on October 11th

• Japan Goals-Mike Havenaar (11', 47'), Shinji Okazaki (19', 74'), Yuichi Komano (35'), Shinji Kagawa (41', 68'), Kengo Nakamura (56')

Prior to this game, goals were hard to come by in this group with only 6 having been notched in the first 5 games. Japan more the doubled that group output with an 8-0 thrashing of Tajikistan. 57% of goals scored in this group came from Japan in this game. Japan also holds over 70% of all the goals for in group play.

Thoughts

Japan-Any concerns people had about Japan after their first 2 games were quashed right around halftime on the 11th when they held a 4-0 lead. Japan reaffirmed in that game that they are the best in the group and they should be able to clinch advancement in November.

North Korea-North Korea scraped through the last qualifying period on defence alone. Unsurprisingly, that formula is the one they're using to try and get through qualifying again. And also unsurprisingly, that formula is failing. Thing about gimmicky teams is that after a while, opposing teams will get wise to the gimmick and be able to gameplan around it. North Korea is in a very precarious position now and if they don't abandon their all-defensive strategy, they won't have a hope of qualifying again.

Tajikistan-For their sake, I'm hoping they don't fold after having been humiliated at the hands of Japan this month. 8-0 losses at this stage of qualifying can eat away at a team and considering this team did not earn their way in to this stage, their morale has to be at an all-time low.

Uzbekistan-Uzbekistan's victory over North Korea was crucial for their chances of advancing. With 3 games to go, Uzbekistan now has a 4-point advantage over the Koreans and can afford to drop a game at some point in the future. Uzbekistan will face North Korea again next month and can secure advancement at that time. If they can repeat this performance, they'll be clear in to Round 4.

Going Forward

On November 11th, Japan will travel to Tajikistan while Uzbekistan hosts North Korea. Both Japan and Uzbekistan can clinch advancement that day, Uzbekistan if they win, Japan if both teams win. A Japan win seems destined to occur and unless North Korea can make a turnaround on the road, Uzbekistan should also be looking at a win.

On the 15th, North Korea will host Japan while Uzbekistan hosts Tajikistan. Always need to wait for the results but Japan and Uzbekistan look poised to be locked in to 1st and 2nd place after this month.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 5 pts
North Korea: 4 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

Actual:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 7 pts
North Korea: 3 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

October 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 3

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Japan-15th (Up 1), 1st Asia (Even)
North Korea-121st (Down 6), 17th Asia (Down 1)
Tajikistan-124th (N/A*), 18th Asia (N/A*)
Uzbekistan-79th (Up 4), 6th Asia (Even)

*-When I last did the rankings, Tajikistan had yet to replace Syria in the group. From that ranking, Tajikistan has climbed 29 spots overall and 8 spots in Asia. All on a pair of 1-0 losses. This won't be the last time you hear me complain about the lunacy of FIFA's ranking system.

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea 0-1 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 Tajikistan

September 6, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-1 North Korea
• Japan 1-1 Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Tajikistan at Japan
• Uzbekistan at North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Tajikistan

November 15, 2011

• Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Tajikistan

October Games:

Game 5
Uzbekistan at North Korea
October 11, 2011
Time: 3:00 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 6
Tajikistan at Japan
October 11, 2011
Time: 6:45 am EDT
Location: Nagai Stadium, Osaka, Japan

Japan struggled in September, barely eeking out a victory at home to North Korea and coming from behind to tie Uzbekistan so I'm sure they'll welcome bottom-feeder Tajikistan to town. Japan gets 2 consecutive games against the last-place team in the group and should use those matches to build a comfortable group lead.

Uzbekistan and North Korea meet in the first leg of a double-header which could be a mini-playoff to decide who advances with Japan. Hard to tell which side will come out on top in that game. Both teams are sound defensively. Uzbekistan might have a few more attacking options but it remains to be seen if they have enough firepower to overcome North Korea's defence in North Korea.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 5 pts
North Korea: 4 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

Japan wins comfortably and Uzbekistan-North Korea seems destined for a 0-0 scoreline.

September Review: Asia-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Japan def. North Korea 1-0 in Saitama, Japan on September 2, 2011

• Japan Goals-Maya Yoshida (90+4')

I said in the preview but I will reiterate here again. North Korea won't win every game they play; but they'll lose fewer games then they win. It took all of extra time for the top-ranked Asian team Japan to find the back of the net against a stingy North Korean side that would have happily returned home with a 0-0 draw. The entire second half was played almost entirely in the Korean side of the field but only Yoshida's header at the last second gave Japan the advantage. Credit to both teams in this result. North Korea stuck to their gameplan and nearly emerged with a point while Japan never lost their patience and kept plugging until they got their goal.

Game 2-Uzbekistan def. Tajikistan 1-0 in Tursunzoda, Tajikistan on September 2, 2011

• Uzbekistan Goals-Maksim Shatskikh (72')

Another well-played match, with Tajikistan making the most of a second opportunity in qualifying after Syria's disqualification. Unfortunately for the Tajik players, they were overmatched by their central Asian rivals. Uzbekistan will be disappointed it took all of 72 minutes to get the winning goal against a Tajikistan team they should be beating most of the time.

Game 3-North Korea def. Tajikistan 1-0 in Pyongyang, North Korea on September 6, 2011

• North Korea Goals-Pak Nam-Chol (14')

North Korea doesn't score a lot of goals. But when they get an early tally, regardless of who they're playing, they're likely to emerge with a victory. That was certainly the case in this game as an early Pak Nam-Chol strike was all the offence North Korea needed to defeat Tajikistan. Korea was able to sit back and absorb the Tajik attacks once they had the advantage and coasted to their first win of qualifying.

Game 4-Japan tied Uzbekistan 1-1 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on September 6, 2011

• Japan Goals-Shinji Okazaki (65')
• Uzbekistan Goals-Server Djeparov (8')

One of the best games in qualifying so far as both sides had a multitude of scoring chances and Japan was forced to claw back against a scrappy underdog. For Uzbekistan, a positive result although they'll be kicking themselves for not picking up the win at home when they were ahead. Good for Japan to climb back in it but they haven't exactly blown the roof off of people in their first 2 games. The absence of midfielder Keisuke Honda is really hurting their play right now. Honda injured his knee prior to this set of games with his club team CSKA Moscow.

Thoughts

Japan-Not a bad set of results, defeating Korea at home and tying Uzbekistan on the road. How they've managed those results will concern Japanese fans though. One break the wrong way in both games and Japan is sitting on 1 point instead of 4 right now. It's a testament to the strength of their team that they lead the group in spite of their poor play this month.

North Korea-Painfully boring to watch on TV but they get the job done. Probably going to be fighting with Uzbekistan to grab the second advancement spot from this group which makes their home game against the Uzbeks in October of the utmost importance. Need to find a victory and not just a draw in that game.

Tajikistan-Performed about as well as they could in all honesty. Can't forget that this is a team in Round 3 on a technicality and not on merit. Played as well as can be expected but can't make up for a talent deficiency.

Uzbekistan-The underdogs are alive and well. Might live to regret losing the victory against Japan but they're still in a solid position going forward. A trip to Pyongyang is next on the schedule and a victory would put them 4 points clear of Korea with 3 games to go. A loss, and they might find themselves in 3rd place for good.

Going Forward

Tajikistan travels to Japan in October in what should be their 3rd straight loss. Japan will likely welcome a game against Tajikistan having faced a gauntlet of games to open the qualifying campaign.

Uzbekistan goes to North Korea in probably the most pivotal game this group will see with second (or first) place up for grabs. A draw would not displease Uzbekistan in that game.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts

Actual:

Japan: 4 pts
Uzbekistan: 4 pts
North Korea: 3 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

One obvious problem with my prediction in this group...Pretty close to what I was expecting, truth be told if I had done my predictions knowing Tajikistan would have been in the group then Korea would have 3 points and not 1. Otherwise pretty close. Not going to be upset about missing the Japan-Uzbekistan prediction as I've been a big Uzbek fan all along. Just need to learn to trust my instincts better.

Asia: Round 3-Group 3 Primer

World Ranking

Japan-16th (1st Asia)
North Korea-115th (16th Asia)
Syria-104th (12th Asia)
Uzbekistan-83rd (6th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea at Japan
• Uzbekistan at Syria

September 6, 2011

• Syria at North Korea
• Japan at Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Syria at Japan
• Uzbekistan at North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Syria

November 15, 2011

• Syria at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Syria

Past International Records

Japan

• 2011 to date: 5-0-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 10-3-5
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 17-5-7
  

North Korea

• 2011 to date: 4-4-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-5-6
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 7-8-8
  

Syria

• 2011 to date: 5-3-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-2-2
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 2-8-3
  

Uzbekistan

• 2011 to date: 5-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-7-1
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 1-6-4
  

Team Glimpses

Japan

Undoubtedly the top team in Asia right now, ranked #1 on the continent and fresh off a victory in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup earlier this year. Japan was rewarded for that victory with about as difficult of a qualifying draw you could imagine. The only qualifying group in Asia with two 2010 finals participants (North Korea), Japan also has to deal with a Syrian team that dropped just two games last campaign and an Uzbek side that was in the semifinals of the Asian Cup. With a roster bolstered by a majority of Europe-based players, Japan should be a strong contender to return to the finals in 2014. Led by CSKA Moscow forward Keisuke Honda, Japan's attacking players will need to be focused on finding the net more then ever in this group which features a bevy of defensive-minded teams, particularly North Korea. Very difficult group for Japan who will be relying heavily on their talent advantage to get them through.

North Korea

The surprise inclusion of the 2010 Finals, North Korean football has plummeted back down to Earth since their 2010 qualifying campaign. They bombed at the Finals, dropping all 3 games and allowing 12 goals in the process. The only meaningful games they've played since were in the 2011 Asian Cup, where they could only manage a draw with U.A.E. in 3 games. Nevertheless, the North Korean's style remains a challenge for any team to deal with. You will see it particularly in a long qualifying stage like in the World Cup campaign, but North Korea has a tendency to view a draw as a win. 0-0 is a score the North Koreans always seem to strive for and if they can manage a goal then great, 1-0 victory! Sounds a little counter-productive, until you see that they went 6-2-6 in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 qualifying. In those 14 games: 11 goals for, 5 goals against. Not a team that will pick up a ton of wins, but a team that certainly won't take a lot of losses either, which makes them a very dangerous opponent in qualifying.

Syria

You know it's a tough group when the 12th ranked team in the continent is best guess for a fourth-place finisher. Syria has been very impressive in 2011. Narrow losses to Saudi Arabia and Japan at the Asian Cup were followed by a victory against Jordan. Since, they've defeated Iraq and Jordan again amongst others establishing themselves as a tough opponent in the Asian zone. Biggest hurdle for Syria will be in containing the explosive offensive attacks that Japan and Uzbekistan possess. In 10 games in 2011, Syria has posted just one shutout, in Round 2 qualifying against Tajikistan. With less talent and depth then the other sides in the group, Syria cannot afford to be surrendering goals at the pace they have been as they lack the firepower to make up for it. Also a challenge for Syria: travel. Due to political strife, they were unable to play at home in Round 2 and are the only unconfirmed venue for the first set of Asian home games, which leads me to believe they won't be playing in Syria any time soon. With 2 trips to the Far East and a trip to Central Asia already in the cards, not being able to play at home could cripple the Syrian side.

Uzbekistan

I've said previously but I'll say it again: the darkhorse team worldwide that I think stands a great chance at qualifying. Not sure if they should be considered an underdog ranked 6th in the conference and fresh off a semifinal performance at the continental cup, but the reaction I generally get when I say Uzbekistan could qualify is incredulity so darkhorse label applies. Uzbekistan got to the final round of qualifying in 2010 but struggled in a group that featured the likes of Australia and Japan. They've drawn an equally arduous task in this group but a roster that is almost entirely returning from that campaign with the experience gained should be prepared to handle adversity this time around. The ability to score a lot of goals combined with staunch goalkeeping from Ignatiy Nesterov should give Uzbekistan all the tools required to advance to Round 4.

September Games

Game 1
North Korea at Japan
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:25 am EDT
Location: Saitama Stadium, Saitama, Japan

Game 2
Uzbekistan at Syria
September 2, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: TBA (Syria's Round 2 home leg was played in Amman, Jordan)

Game 3
Syria at North Korea
September 6, 2011
Time: 2:30 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 4
Japan at Uzbekistan
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Syria's the big loser in September matches. Uzbekistan will be a tough opener outside of Syria, and they'll have to immediately follow that with a cross-continent trip to Pyongyang to face the team they might actually be able to defeat more often then not. They're in serious danger of being buried at the bottom of this group right off the bat.

Japan and North Korea form an intriguing opening match, particularly to see what form North Korea is on. If the game is close then North Korea should be a threat in Group 3. If it's a blowout, then Japan and Uzbekistan are probably looking good to advance, with first place likely in the balance when they meet in Tashkent on the 6th.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts