November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 3

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Dominica-152nd (Down 3), 24th N. America (Down 3)
Nicaragua-160th (Down 4), 26th N. America (Down 1)
Panama-53rd (Even), 4th N. America (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama 2-1 Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Panama 5-0 Dominica

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua 1-5 Panama

November 11, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

November Games:

Game 5
Dominica at Nicaragua
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua

Game 6
Dominica at Panama
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City, Panama

With Panama having won the group already, these games serve only to complete the schedule. It's Dominica's turn to play twice in a 3-team group and unfortunately for them, the bottom-dwellers must play both remaining matches on the road. Dominica has not scored in either of their qualifying matches so far this campaign, while surrendering 7 goals against, 5 to Panama in their last outing.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Panama-12 pts
x-Nicaragua-6 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

Dominica couldn't manage anything at home playing against competition who have both improved since they last played. No points for Dominica. They might not even manage a goal...

November 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 3

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Japan-17th (Down 2), 1st Asia (Even)
North Korea-124th (Down 3), 17th Asia (Even)
Tajikistan-130th (Down 6), 18th Asia (Even)
Uzbekistan-73rd (Up 6), 6th Asia (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea 0-1 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 Tajikistan

September 6, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-1 North Korea
• Japan 1-1 Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-8 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Tajikistan

November 15, 2011

• Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Tajikistan

November Games:

Game 7
Japan at Tajikistan
November 11, 2011
Time: 4:00 am EST
Location: Central Stadium, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Game 8
North Korea at Uzbekistan
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Game 9
Japan at North Korea
November 15, 2011
Time: 2:00 am EST
Location: Kim Il-Sung Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 10
Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Both Japan and Uzbekistan have an opportunity to clinch advancement on the 11th and have favourable matchups to do so. Japan visits Tajikistan fresh off an 8-0 drubbing of the Central Asian nation in October and Uzbekistan gets North Korea at home in a return leg of their previous matchup. Japan is likely looking at a win but the North Korea-Uzbekistan game will be competitive. North Korea needs at least a point, preferably a win in order to stay alive.

On the 15th, Uzbekistan hosts their neighbours and like Japan will be favoured to grab 3 points. North Korea will host Japan in what will again be a must-win game should they still be alive in the group. A loss would leave them at 6 points maximum with Japan and presumably Uzbekistan both at 10, eliminating the Koreans.

Post-November Standing Predictions:

a-Japan: 13 pts
a-Uzbekistan: 13 pts
x-North Korea: 3 pts
x-Tajikistan: 0 pts

Japan and Uzbekistan keep getting better while North Korea is just spinning their wheels. One way or another, Japan and Uzbekistan should both be in to Round 4 by the middle of the month.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 3-Panama def. Dominica 5-0 in Roseau, Dominica on October 7, 2011

• Panama Goals-Amir White (26', 89'), Luis Tejada (34'), Blas Perez (57'), Ricardo Buitrago (62')

Dominica stood no chance against a bigger, faster and more organized Panama team who spent the whole game weaving holes through the Dominican defence to the goal. The Dominican defence looked lost for much of the game and never stood a chance at putting goals on the scoreboard of their own. Dominican goalkeeping was weak as well, with at least 2 of the Panama goals coming off of shots one would expect a goalkeeper at this level to stop.

Game 4-Panama def. Nicaragua 5-1 in Panama City, Panama on October 11, 2011

• Panama Goals-Luis Tejada (27', 64'), Blas Perez (48', 51', 87')
• Nicaragua Goals-Daniel Reyes (88')

In a must-win game for Nicaragua, they managed to stick around for a half before falling down by 3 goals at the start of the second, clinching the game and subsequently the group for Panama. Reyes' 88th minute goal was the first Nicaraguan goal against Panama in almost 2 qualifying matches, not counting the own goal from Panama in their first match.

Thoughts

Dominica-The second seed in this group, they looked completely overwhelmed against Panama. Paired with a 2-0 loss to Nicaragua in September where they surrendered a goal in the 1st minute, this team is cemented at the bottom of the group. And with 2 games left, they are already eliminated from qualifying, unable to catch group leader Panama.

Nicaragua-Gave it their best shot against Panama when they needed to but once the second half started things fell apart for the Nicaraguans. I've still been impressed by their fight in this campaign when many thought they had no chance from the beginning. Nicaragua will meet Dominica in November in their final qualifying match with a shot to finish the campaign at the .500 mark.

Panama-2 games, 2 wins and a +9 goal differential in October, along with the claim to be the first Round 2 team to advance in CONCACAF. Panama struggled in September but looked dominant this month in clinching the group. Panama will have one more game against Dominica this round before advancing to Round 3. I expect to see some unfamiliar names in the starting lineup as Panama looks to build depth going forward.

Going Forward

Dominica's turn to play twice in November as they'll meet Nicaragua on the 11th and Panama on the 15th. Dominica has both games on the road, and both are meaningless at this point.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

Actual:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

No huge surprises, but Panama cleaned up in both October games, picking up the group.

October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Uzbekistan def. North Korea 1-0 in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 11th

• Uzbekistan Goals-Aleksandr Geynrikh (15')

North Korea again struggled to find the back of the net and an early goal surrendered to Uzbekistan's Aleksandr Geynrikh was enough to give Uzbekistan the win and a 4-point advantage over the Koreans for second place in the group.

Game 6-Japan def. Tajikistan 8-0 in Osaka, Japan on October 11th

• Japan Goals-Mike Havenaar (11', 47'), Shinji Okazaki (19', 74'), Yuichi Komano (35'), Shinji Kagawa (41', 68'), Kengo Nakamura (56')

Prior to this game, goals were hard to come by in this group with only 6 having been notched in the first 5 games. Japan more the doubled that group output with an 8-0 thrashing of Tajikistan. 57% of goals scored in this group came from Japan in this game. Japan also holds over 70% of all the goals for in group play.

Thoughts

Japan-Any concerns people had about Japan after their first 2 games were quashed right around halftime on the 11th when they held a 4-0 lead. Japan reaffirmed in that game that they are the best in the group and they should be able to clinch advancement in November.

North Korea-North Korea scraped through the last qualifying period on defence alone. Unsurprisingly, that formula is the one they're using to try and get through qualifying again. And also unsurprisingly, that formula is failing. Thing about gimmicky teams is that after a while, opposing teams will get wise to the gimmick and be able to gameplan around it. North Korea is in a very precarious position now and if they don't abandon their all-defensive strategy, they won't have a hope of qualifying again.

Tajikistan-For their sake, I'm hoping they don't fold after having been humiliated at the hands of Japan this month. 8-0 losses at this stage of qualifying can eat away at a team and considering this team did not earn their way in to this stage, their morale has to be at an all-time low.

Uzbekistan-Uzbekistan's victory over North Korea was crucial for their chances of advancing. With 3 games to go, Uzbekistan now has a 4-point advantage over the Koreans and can afford to drop a game at some point in the future. Uzbekistan will face North Korea again next month and can secure advancement at that time. If they can repeat this performance, they'll be clear in to Round 4.

Going Forward

On November 11th, Japan will travel to Tajikistan while Uzbekistan hosts North Korea. Both Japan and Uzbekistan can clinch advancement that day, Uzbekistan if they win, Japan if both teams win. A Japan win seems destined to occur and unless North Korea can make a turnaround on the road, Uzbekistan should also be looking at a win.

On the 15th, North Korea will host Japan while Uzbekistan hosts Tajikistan. Always need to wait for the results but Japan and Uzbekistan look poised to be locked in to 1st and 2nd place after this month.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 5 pts
North Korea: 4 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

Actual:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 7 pts
North Korea: 3 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

October 2011 Preview: Asia-Group 3

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Japan-15th (Up 1), 1st Asia (Even)
North Korea-121st (Down 6), 17th Asia (Down 1)
Tajikistan-124th (N/A*), 18th Asia (N/A*)
Uzbekistan-79th (Up 4), 6th Asia (Even)

*-When I last did the rankings, Tajikistan had yet to replace Syria in the group. From that ranking, Tajikistan has climbed 29 spots overall and 8 spots in Asia. All on a pair of 1-0 losses. This won't be the last time you hear me complain about the lunacy of FIFA's ranking system.

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea 0-1 Japan
• Uzbekistan 1-0 Tajikistan

September 6, 2011

• Tajikistan 0-1 North Korea
• Japan 1-1 Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Tajikistan at Japan
• Uzbekistan at North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Tajikistan

November 15, 2011

• Tajikistan at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Tajikistan

October Games:

Game 5
Uzbekistan at North Korea
October 11, 2011
Time: 3:00 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 6
Tajikistan at Japan
October 11, 2011
Time: 6:45 am EDT
Location: Nagai Stadium, Osaka, Japan

Japan struggled in September, barely eeking out a victory at home to North Korea and coming from behind to tie Uzbekistan so I'm sure they'll welcome bottom-feeder Tajikistan to town. Japan gets 2 consecutive games against the last-place team in the group and should use those matches to build a comfortable group lead.

Uzbekistan and North Korea meet in the first leg of a double-header which could be a mini-playoff to decide who advances with Japan. Hard to tell which side will come out on top in that game. Both teams are sound defensively. Uzbekistan might have a few more attacking options but it remains to be seen if they have enough firepower to overcome North Korea's defence in North Korea.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

Japan: 7 pts
Uzbekistan: 5 pts
North Korea: 4 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

Japan wins comfortably and Uzbekistan-North Korea seems destined for a 0-0 scoreline.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 3

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Dominica-149th (Down 16), 21st N. America (Down 2)
Nicaragua-156th (Up 21), 25th N. America (Up 4)
Panama-53rd (Up 12), t-4th N. America (Up 2)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama 2-1 Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Panama at Dominica

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua at Panama

November 11, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

October Games:

Game 3
Panama at Dominica
October 7, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica

Game 4
Nicaragua at Panama
October 11, 2011
Time: 9:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City, Panama

Fully expecting a Panama victory against Dominica on Friday. I'm a little more intrigued by the second October game though. It will be an elimination game for Nicaragua and likely a chance for Panama to secure advancement. If Nicaragua is hungry enough and plays the game of its life then they might have a chance. Make no mistake though, Panama is far and away the class of this group.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

I anticipate Panama winning both games in October which would clinch advancement and eliminate Nicaragua and Dominica with 2 group games to play.

CONCACAF Group 3 Schedule Change

Just a quick update to inform you of a change to the order of matches in Group 3 of CONCACAF qualifying. After Bahamas exited the competition, the schedule was unbalanced with Nicaragua playing all of their games in September and October while Panama and Dominica would only play 2 in those months and then 2 in November.

In the interest of fairness to all teams, the match order has been changed. Nicaragua will still play Panama in October but the other game will be Panama-Dominica instead of Nicaragua-Dominica. This way, all 3 teams in the group will be required to play 2 games in quick succession only once in this round. As it was originally set up, Nicaragua had to do it twice.

September Review: North America-Group 3

[ed.]-For reasons explained here, two posts today. Nothing tomorrow.

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Nicaragua def. Dominica 2-0 in Roseau, Dominica on September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua Goals-Raul Leguias (1'), Felix Rodriguez (36')

I can admit when I'm wrong. I thought Nicaragua was dead to rights in this group. Not only did they jump out to a lead seconds in to the game, they were able to carry that dominance through to full time, picking up an impressive 2-0 victory. Great news for Nicaragua although advancement remains unlikely. As for Dominica, they've created a huge hole for themselves having played just 1 game (harsh reality of a 3-team group). They'll need to come up with a big win in the return leg against Nicaragua if they want any chance of competing with Panama for advancement in November.

Game 2-Panama def. Nicaragua 2-1 in Managua, Nicaragua on September 6, 2011

• Panama Goals-Luis Tejada (7'), Roman Torres (18' OG), Blas Perez (50')

Roman Torres made things a bit tougher for Panama with an own goal in the 18th minute but it was otherwise smooth sailing for Panama in this one. Too much power up front for Panama who threatened the Nicaraguan goal all night. The Nicaraguan defence should consider itself lucky they only surrendered two in this game. A long shot for Nicaragua to win this game. If they want to maintain their slim advancement hopes, they will likely need wins in both of their remaining games.

Thoughts

Dominica-Amazing what 1 bad result can do in qualifying. Even with a victory in their next game, barring a major surprise, they'll be 3 points behind Panama entering their series with them, a near-insurmountable task. They weren't ready to face Nicaragua and it showed in the result. Subsequently, they're facing a series of must-win games in a row.

Nicaragua-So maybe I was a little hasty in my group preview when I posted this to sum up Nicaragua's chances going in to qualifying:



Again, Nicaragua, my sincere apologies. In one game, you far exceeded my expectations for you in all of qualifying. You have 2 games in October and you probably need to win both if you want to advance. I still don't think you can but it is not nearly as impossible for you as I thought. You certainly won't be eliminated October 7th as I originally surmised. Possibly on the 11th, but not on the 7th...

Panama-Nice of Panama to notch an own goal in their game against Nicaragua. Might be the only goal they give up in Round 2. Panama was the heavy favourite going in and little has changed since. Panama meets Nicaragua again in October and a win will put them just a draw away from clinching advancement in this group. Need to avoid a letdown, not because they could lose the group but simply to keep momentum and composure up before they get to Round 3.

Going Forward

October will see a repeat of the matches in September but at opposing home venues. Nicaragua will play host to Dominica on the 7th before traveling to Panama on the 11th. Not sure what to expect from the Nicaragua-Dominica game any more. Nicaragua was far and awar the better team in their first meeting. Dominica is capable of making a rapid turnaround though. Panama will be expected to again beat Nicaragua. No team will be able to clinch advancement in October and Dominica will not be able to be eliminated. However Nicaragua will play their last game of the round on October 11th. If they are behind Panama in points at that time, they will be eliminated.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts

Actual:

Panama-3 pts
Nicaragua-3 pts
Dominica-0 pts

Whiffed on the Dominica-Nicaragua prediction (not unlike Dominica did in the game...).

September Review: Asia-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Japan def. North Korea 1-0 in Saitama, Japan on September 2, 2011

• Japan Goals-Maya Yoshida (90+4')

I said in the preview but I will reiterate here again. North Korea won't win every game they play; but they'll lose fewer games then they win. It took all of extra time for the top-ranked Asian team Japan to find the back of the net against a stingy North Korean side that would have happily returned home with a 0-0 draw. The entire second half was played almost entirely in the Korean side of the field but only Yoshida's header at the last second gave Japan the advantage. Credit to both teams in this result. North Korea stuck to their gameplan and nearly emerged with a point while Japan never lost their patience and kept plugging until they got their goal.

Game 2-Uzbekistan def. Tajikistan 1-0 in Tursunzoda, Tajikistan on September 2, 2011

• Uzbekistan Goals-Maksim Shatskikh (72')

Another well-played match, with Tajikistan making the most of a second opportunity in qualifying after Syria's disqualification. Unfortunately for the Tajik players, they were overmatched by their central Asian rivals. Uzbekistan will be disappointed it took all of 72 minutes to get the winning goal against a Tajikistan team they should be beating most of the time.

Game 3-North Korea def. Tajikistan 1-0 in Pyongyang, North Korea on September 6, 2011

• North Korea Goals-Pak Nam-Chol (14')

North Korea doesn't score a lot of goals. But when they get an early tally, regardless of who they're playing, they're likely to emerge with a victory. That was certainly the case in this game as an early Pak Nam-Chol strike was all the offence North Korea needed to defeat Tajikistan. Korea was able to sit back and absorb the Tajik attacks once they had the advantage and coasted to their first win of qualifying.

Game 4-Japan tied Uzbekistan 1-1 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on September 6, 2011

• Japan Goals-Shinji Okazaki (65')
• Uzbekistan Goals-Server Djeparov (8')

One of the best games in qualifying so far as both sides had a multitude of scoring chances and Japan was forced to claw back against a scrappy underdog. For Uzbekistan, a positive result although they'll be kicking themselves for not picking up the win at home when they were ahead. Good for Japan to climb back in it but they haven't exactly blown the roof off of people in their first 2 games. The absence of midfielder Keisuke Honda is really hurting their play right now. Honda injured his knee prior to this set of games with his club team CSKA Moscow.

Thoughts

Japan-Not a bad set of results, defeating Korea at home and tying Uzbekistan on the road. How they've managed those results will concern Japanese fans though. One break the wrong way in both games and Japan is sitting on 1 point instead of 4 right now. It's a testament to the strength of their team that they lead the group in spite of their poor play this month.

North Korea-Painfully boring to watch on TV but they get the job done. Probably going to be fighting with Uzbekistan to grab the second advancement spot from this group which makes their home game against the Uzbeks in October of the utmost importance. Need to find a victory and not just a draw in that game.

Tajikistan-Performed about as well as they could in all honesty. Can't forget that this is a team in Round 3 on a technicality and not on merit. Played as well as can be expected but can't make up for a talent deficiency.

Uzbekistan-The underdogs are alive and well. Might live to regret losing the victory against Japan but they're still in a solid position going forward. A trip to Pyongyang is next on the schedule and a victory would put them 4 points clear of Korea with 3 games to go. A loss, and they might find themselves in 3rd place for good.

Going Forward

Tajikistan travels to Japan in October in what should be their 3rd straight loss. Japan will likely welcome a game against Tajikistan having faced a gauntlet of games to open the qualifying campaign.

Uzbekistan goes to North Korea in probably the most pivotal game this group will see with second (or first) place up for grabs. A draw would not displease Uzbekistan in that game.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts

Actual:

Japan: 4 pts
Uzbekistan: 4 pts
North Korea: 3 pts
Tajikistan: 0 pts

One obvious problem with my prediction in this group...Pretty close to what I was expecting, truth be told if I had done my predictions knowing Tajikistan would have been in the group then Korea would have 3 points and not 1. Otherwise pretty close. Not going to be upset about missing the Japan-Uzbekistan prediction as I've been a big Uzbek fan all along. Just need to learn to trust my instincts better.

North America: Round 2-Group 3 Primer

[ed.] Double post of groups today. I'll be on vacation next week so I want to get all the primers for the groups playing in September done this week. Speaking of vacation, I'll be away from a computer from August 28th through September 2nd. Yes, September 2nd is a gameday. I'll have access to a computer in the evening that day so I'll probably just do a scoreboard when I get home and update the CONCACAF scores as they happen. I'll then be away from a computer on the 3rd and 4th before being back full-time on the 5th. What does this mean? Comeprehensive recaps are going to wait until after the games on the 6th, and I'll just go group-by-group like I've done in the previews. Haven't decided what to do on the 6th but if my readership has gotten high enough by then I might just live blog all or parts of the day.

Bahamas Exit

For those that missed my earlier post on it, Bahamas withdrew from qualifying last Friday. Concerns mainly resulted from the renovations around the National Stadium in Nassau not having been completed. Bahamas also cited an inability for fans to see the team as a result of having to play all of their games on the road. I briefly expressed my opinion on the matter in that post and debated about whether or not I should bother in this one but decided it needed proper attention.

Shame on the Bahamas football federation. First off, you have a suitable field at home in the Bahamas. You played your Round 1 home leg at the Roscow A.L. Davies Soccer Field in Nassau. 1600 people showed up and it's a FIFA-approved venue otherwise you wouldn't have been allowed to play there. Is it the 15,000 seat stadium you were hoping for? No. Is it better then playing on the road all the time? Absolutely. So don't throw out the argument that cost is an issue. You are competing for an opportunity for your country to be involved in the greatest sporting spectacle in the world. Deal with it, open up the pocketbook if necessary, and play the matches you're supposed to.

The real loser in this situation? Not the Bahamas team or its fans but the fans/players for Turks and Caicos. Turks and Caicos lost their Round 1 pairing to Bahamas, eliminating them from contention, and now the team that beat them has dropped out because they aren't going to be able to profit off of it. I'd be furious if I were Turks and Caicos. Not that they would have stood a chance in Round 2 but better to see the team that eliminated them compete and put forth an effort rather then back out at the last second.

There is no Group 3 replacement for Bahamas and the group is now a 3-team group consisting of Dominica, Nicaragua, and Panama.

World Ranking

Dominica-133rd (19th North America)
Nicaragua-177th (29th North America)
Panama-65th (6th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua at Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama at Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua at Panama

November 11, 2011

• Panama at Dominica

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

Past International Records

Dominica

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-0-0

Nicaragua

• 2011 to date: 0-4-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 4-13-0

Panama

• 2011 to date: 8-2-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 13-4-0

Team Glimpses

Dominica

Dominica have been inactive since November 2010 and the Caribbean Championship, where they managed to grab just a single point in 3 matches. Having never played either of their group opponents it's tough to gauge how they'll stack up but they appear to be at a serious disadvantage in a group with Panama, the top seed in Round 2. Dominica will start their campaign with a pair of games against lowly Nicaragua before they have to meet Panama. They absolutely need to get a win in both games against Nicaragua in order to keep pace with Panama and set up an opportunity in November to knock off the Latin American powerhouse.

Nicaragua

Credit where credit is due; despite having played 6 games in 2011 without a victory, they've actually done better then I thought they had in those games. None of their losses have been by more then goals, they posted a draw against Cuba in May. All in all, a respectable performance by one of the worst nations in CONCACAF. That said, full disclosure, my original temptation was to simply post the following here:



It's unfortunate for Nicaragua that A) they drew Panama and B) because of how the schedule works with the Bahamas exit, they are the only team playing two doubleheaders as opposed to just one. No doubt in my mind, they will the first CONCACAF team eliminated from contention, probably on October 7th.

Panama

If you're going solely off of 2011 results, Panama might be the best team in CONCACAF right now. And yes, I'm including the U.S. and Mexico when I say that. 3 victories against El Salvador, 2 victories over South American side Bolivia and a split with the U.S. at the Gold Cup highlight their 2011 campaign so far. Drawn in to a group with a pair of pushovers (a trio if Bahamas was still here) they'll be looking ahead to Round 3 (and hopefully Round 4) from the get-go. Normally I'd say that's a bad thing; in this case not at all. Panama will cruise through this group.

September Games:

Game 1
Nicaragua at Dominica
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica

Game 2
Panama at Nicaragua
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua

Little intrigue in Game 2, Panama should won easily. For competition's sake, I'm hoping Dominica can top Nicaragua, if only to make the November matches between Dominica-Panama worth something.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts

Bahamas Withdraws from World Cup Qualifying

Details are still sketchy and no release has been made by FIFA but apparently Bahamas have withdrawn from 2014 qualifying. No reason has been provided but it appears confirmed via the following tweet from CONCACAF:

CONCACAF CONCACAF

Bahamas has withdrawn from 2014 FIFA World Cup Qualifying. Group 3 will now consist of 3 teams: Panama, Dominica and Nicaragua.

All games involving Bahamas have been canceled and Group 3 in CONCACAF is now a 3-team group. It is not believed that the match schedule will otherwise be amended.

I'll have the Group 3 primer up Wednesday and hopefully can provide more details about this at that time.

EDIT: Concacaf press release on Bahamas' withdrawal:

http://www.concacaf.com/page/WCQ/NewsDetail/0,,12813~2426184,00.html

For those not wishing to click the link, the National Stadium in Nassau is still undergoing renovations and will not be ready to host international matches in the immediate future. As a result, Bahamas is withdrawing rather then incurring the extra costs of playing their home legs in a different country.

I understand the rationale behind withdrawing but don't necessarily agree with it. From a cost perspective, 6 road games is a burden for a nation like Bahamas which does not have a lot of money to invest in sport. That being said, withdrawing so you don't have to play 3 extra road games and save money is really a slap in the face to your team. We think you guys would do great and we want to get as far as we can but airfare/hotel/fees for a few extra games? Sorry guys, maybe next time. I'd personally feel a little cheated by my federation if I were a Bahamian player.

As mentioned earlier, all Bahamas' games have been canceled and it is now a 3-team group. The teams will still play a double round-robin, there will just be 6 games overall instead of 12. Match schedule should remain the same, but on each of the 6 matchdays only one game in the group will be contested as opposed to two.

Asia: Round 3-Group 3 Primer

World Ranking

Japan-16th (1st Asia)
North Korea-115th (16th Asia)
Syria-104th (12th Asia)
Uzbekistan-83rd (6th Asia)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• North Korea at Japan
• Uzbekistan at Syria

September 6, 2011

• Syria at North Korea
• Japan at Uzbekistan

October 11, 2011

• Syria at Japan
• Uzbekistan at North Korea

November 11, 2011

• North Korea at Uzbekistan
• Japan at Syria

November 15, 2011

• Syria at Uzbekistan
• Japan at North Korea

February 29, 2012

• Uzbekistan at Japan
• North Korea at Syria

Past International Records

Japan

• 2011 to date: 5-0-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 10-3-5
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 17-5-7
  

North Korea

• 2011 to date: 4-4-3
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-5-6
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 7-8-8
  

Syria

• 2011 to date: 5-3-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-2-2
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 2-8-3
  

Uzbekistan

• 2011 to date: 5-5-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-7-1
  
• vs. Group Opponents: 1-6-4
  

Team Glimpses

Japan

Undoubtedly the top team in Asia right now, ranked #1 on the continent and fresh off a victory in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup earlier this year. Japan was rewarded for that victory with about as difficult of a qualifying draw you could imagine. The only qualifying group in Asia with two 2010 finals participants (North Korea), Japan also has to deal with a Syrian team that dropped just two games last campaign and an Uzbek side that was in the semifinals of the Asian Cup. With a roster bolstered by a majority of Europe-based players, Japan should be a strong contender to return to the finals in 2014. Led by CSKA Moscow forward Keisuke Honda, Japan's attacking players will need to be focused on finding the net more then ever in this group which features a bevy of defensive-minded teams, particularly North Korea. Very difficult group for Japan who will be relying heavily on their talent advantage to get them through.

North Korea

The surprise inclusion of the 2010 Finals, North Korean football has plummeted back down to Earth since their 2010 qualifying campaign. They bombed at the Finals, dropping all 3 games and allowing 12 goals in the process. The only meaningful games they've played since were in the 2011 Asian Cup, where they could only manage a draw with U.A.E. in 3 games. Nevertheless, the North Korean's style remains a challenge for any team to deal with. You will see it particularly in a long qualifying stage like in the World Cup campaign, but North Korea has a tendency to view a draw as a win. 0-0 is a score the North Koreans always seem to strive for and if they can manage a goal then great, 1-0 victory! Sounds a little counter-productive, until you see that they went 6-2-6 in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 qualifying. In those 14 games: 11 goals for, 5 goals against. Not a team that will pick up a ton of wins, but a team that certainly won't take a lot of losses either, which makes them a very dangerous opponent in qualifying.

Syria

You know it's a tough group when the 12th ranked team in the continent is best guess for a fourth-place finisher. Syria has been very impressive in 2011. Narrow losses to Saudi Arabia and Japan at the Asian Cup were followed by a victory against Jordan. Since, they've defeated Iraq and Jordan again amongst others establishing themselves as a tough opponent in the Asian zone. Biggest hurdle for Syria will be in containing the explosive offensive attacks that Japan and Uzbekistan possess. In 10 games in 2011, Syria has posted just one shutout, in Round 2 qualifying against Tajikistan. With less talent and depth then the other sides in the group, Syria cannot afford to be surrendering goals at the pace they have been as they lack the firepower to make up for it. Also a challenge for Syria: travel. Due to political strife, they were unable to play at home in Round 2 and are the only unconfirmed venue for the first set of Asian home games, which leads me to believe they won't be playing in Syria any time soon. With 2 trips to the Far East and a trip to Central Asia already in the cards, not being able to play at home could cripple the Syrian side.

Uzbekistan

I've said previously but I'll say it again: the darkhorse team worldwide that I think stands a great chance at qualifying. Not sure if they should be considered an underdog ranked 6th in the conference and fresh off a semifinal performance at the continental cup, but the reaction I generally get when I say Uzbekistan could qualify is incredulity so darkhorse label applies. Uzbekistan got to the final round of qualifying in 2010 but struggled in a group that featured the likes of Australia and Japan. They've drawn an equally arduous task in this group but a roster that is almost entirely returning from that campaign with the experience gained should be prepared to handle adversity this time around. The ability to score a lot of goals combined with staunch goalkeeping from Ignatiy Nesterov should give Uzbekistan all the tools required to advance to Round 4.

September Games

Game 1
North Korea at Japan
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:25 am EDT
Location: Saitama Stadium, Saitama, Japan

Game 2
Uzbekistan at Syria
September 2, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: TBA (Syria's Round 2 home leg was played in Amman, Jordan)

Game 3
Syria at North Korea
September 6, 2011
Time: 2:30 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea

Game 4
Japan at Uzbekistan
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Syria's the big loser in September matches. Uzbekistan will be a tough opener outside of Syria, and they'll have to immediately follow that with a cross-continent trip to Pyongyang to face the team they might actually be able to defeat more often then not. They're in serious danger of being buried at the bottom of this group right off the bat.

Japan and North Korea form an intriguing opening match, particularly to see what form North Korea is on. If the game is close then North Korea should be a threat in Group 3. If it's a blowout, then Japan and Uzbekistan are probably looking good to advance, with first place likely in the balance when they meet in Tashkent on the 6th.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts