CONCACAF Round 3 Groups

With winners of all 6 groups in Round 2 now decided, we now know exactly what the groups for North America Round 3 will be. They are as follows:

Group 1



Group 2



Group 3



Initial thoughts are that the groups range in difficulty from 2 being the toughest to 1 being the easiest, with 3 closer to 2 on that spectrum.

Group 3 will be a very demanding group. All 4 teams have the potential to advance although Honduras and Panama should be slight favourites. Group 2 is similar except the overall calibre of the group is even better. Half of the participants competed in Round 4 last campaign, and Guyana eliminated a 4th Round 4 member when they knocked out Trinidad in Round 2. Mexico will be favoured to go on with either Costa Rica or El Salvador. Those 2 teams will have a war trying to determine which one advances.

As for Group 1, USA is way ahead of all the other opponents in this group. It was going to be the easiest group to begin with. But upsetting performances by Grenada and Haiti mean that neither Round 2 participant was even a top seed in their group. Jamaica and Guatemala will be pesky but USA should have no problem getting out of this group. Guatemala has been very strong in qualifying but Jamaica might be too much to overcome at this point.

Game Schedule is yet to be released although matches are slated to take place between June-October 2012.

Way too early prediction for Round 4 participants:

Costa Rica
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Panama
USA

November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 1

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Cayman Islands-185th (Down 11), 31st N. America (Down 3)
Dominican Republic-128th (Up 11), 18th N. America (Up 1)
El Salvador-82nd (Up 6), 8th N. America (Up 1)
Suriname-104th (Up 9), 14th N. America (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Cayman Islands 0-1 Suriname
• Dominican Republic 2-3 El Salvador

September 6, 2011

• El Salvador 4-1 Cayman Islands
• Suriname 1-1 Dominican Republic

October 7, 2011

• El Salvador 2-1 Dominican Republic
• Suriname 1-0 Cayman Islands

October 11, 2011

• Cayman Islands 0-4 El Salvador
• Dominican Republic 3-1 Suriname

November 11, 2011

• El Salvador at Suriname
• Cayman Islands at Dominican Republic

November 14, 2011

• Dominican Republic at Cayman Islands

November 15, 2011

• Suriname at El Salvador

November Games:

Game 9
Cayman Islands at Dominican Republic
November 11, 2011
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Panamericano, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic

Game 10
El Salvador at Suriname
November 11, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Location: Andre Kamperveen Stadion, Paramaribo, Suriname

Game 11
Dominican Republic at Cayman Islands
November 14, 2011
Time: 7:30 pm EST
Location: Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town, Cayman Islands

Game 12
Suriname at El Salvador
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:30 pm EST
Location: Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador, El Salvador

Only relevant series of games are the two between El Salvador and Suriname. Suriname struggled against lesser competition early in this group and now must beat El Salvador twice in order to advance. Might have a chance with the first leg at home but I foresee no scenario in which El Salvador does not advance from this group. Dominican Republic actually stands a good shot at surpassing Suriname for second place in this group as they get a pair of games against Cayman Islands.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-El Salvador-16 pts
x-Dominican Republic-10 pts
x-Suriname-8 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

I'll give Suriname a draw in one of their games but El Salvador will be too much for them to overcome. Dominican Republic wins twice to grab second place and El Salvador comfortably moves on to Round 3.

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-El Salvador def. Dominican Republic 2-1 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic on October 7, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Osael Romero (37'), Lester Blanco (67')
• Dominican Republic Goals-Erick Ozuna (54')

First goal of the game came on a penalty kick from Osael Romero off of a Dominican Republic red card. Rather then fold against the superior Salvadoran team, the Dominicans pushed forward and managed an equalizer early in the second half. The numerical disadvantage eventually caught up with the home team though and El Salvador was able to escape with the victory.

Game 6-Suriname def. Cayman Islands 1-0 in George Town, Cayman Islands on October 7, 2011

• Suriname Goals-Giovanni Drenthe (57')

2nd straight 1-0 victory for Suriname over Cayman Islands in qualifying. No surprise that they've beaten the Caymans in both games but Suriname's inability to score goals against this level of opposition has to be troubling for the Suriname team. 1 goal a game isn't typically enough firepower to secure advancement in a group like this.

Game 7-Dominican Republic def. Suriname 3-1 in Paramaribo, Suriname on October 11, 2011

• Dominican Republic Goals-Jonathan Fana (9'), Erick Ozuna (47', 75')
• Suriname Goals-Naldo Kwassie (80')

Best game of qualifying for Dominican Republic who finally showed the form people which people thought could propel them to the top of this group. They jumped out to an early lead and didn't let off the gas pedal until the final whistle blew, picking up a decisive 3-1 win. Too little, too late for the Dominicans in the group but they should have a shot at second place in this group.

Game 8-El Salvador def. Cayman Islands 4-0 in San Salvador, El Salvador on October 11, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Victor Turcios (6'), Steve Purdy (13'), Jaime Alas (45'), Herbert Sosa (88')

This game almost didn't happen, delayed 90 minutes due to torrential rains in San Salvador. Once the game did start, Cayman Islands found itself in a different kind of downpour, one coming from a proficient Salvadoran offence who easily went out to a 3-0 halftime lead. El Salvador remains perfect in qualifying with this win and will need only a draw against Suriname in November to advance.

Thoughts

Cayman Islands-Eliminated with 3 games remaining, Cayman Islands has a firm grasp on the bottom of the group. A pair of games against Dominican Republic in November will give them a chance to get some points out of qualifying but there's no question that they were out of their depth against El Salvador and Suriname. Cayman Islands have managed just 1 goal so far in qualifying, a meaningless penalty late in the game in a 4-1 loss to El Salvador.

Dominican Republic-This team is continuing to improve as they play more games and should continue that trend in November as they face Cayman Islands twice. Unfortunately for them, the improvements they're making are too late for this team to advance to Round 3. A draw and a win against Suriname are great steps for this team but El Salvador was always going to be the team to beat and a pair of losses against the Salvadorans are what torpedoed this team's shot at advancement.

El Salvador-Their last game against Cayman Islands was the first time this campaign that they've looked in complete control of a match. I'm still not sure what to make of them as a result. With a 5-point cushion, they should be clear in to the next round but awaiting them there is Costa Rica and Mexico. Based on what they've shown so far, El Salvador is not in good enough form to compete with those 2 opponents next round.

Suriname-Suriname could not afford to drop any points before facing off against El Salvador next month, but they've managed just 1 point of a possible 6 against Dominican Republic so far. As a result, Suriname has been stuck with needing to beat El Salvador 2 games in succession in order to advance. With just 4 goals for in 4 games and a +0 goal differential, Suriname's shot at advancement looks bleak at best.

Going Forward

A pair of 2-game series to be played between Cayman Islands-Dominican Republic and El Salvador-Suriname. Both Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic are eliminated so that series only has a bearing on final standing. El Salvador and Suriname meanwhile will compete for the right to advance to Round 3. Down 5 points, Suriname must win both November games against El Salvador if they wish to advance. Should they draw or lose either game, El Salvador will go through.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

El Salvador-12 pts
Suriname-8 pts
x-Dominican Republic-2 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

Actual:

El Salvador-12 pts
Suriname-7 pts
x-Dominican Republic-4 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

Gave Dominican Republic benefit of the doubt drawing Suriname. Turns out they wiped the floor with them.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 1

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Cayman Islands-174th (Down 2), 28th N. America (No Change).
Dominican Republic-139th (Down 7), 19th N. America (Down 1).
El Salvador-88th (Down 10), 9th N. America (Down 2).
Suriname-113th (Down 3), 14th N. America (Down 2).

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Cayman Islands 0-1 Suriname
• Dominican Republic 2-3 El Salvador

September 6, 2011

• El Salvador 4-1 Cayman Islands
• Suriname 1-1 Dominican Republic

October 7, 2011

• El Salvador at Dominican Republic
• Suriname at Cayman Islands

October 11, 2011

• Cayman Islands at El Salvador
• Dominican Republic at Suriname

November 11, 2011

• El Salvador at Suriname
• Cayman Islands at Dominican Republic

November 14, 2011

• Dominican Republic at Cayman Islands

November 15, 2011

• Suriname at El Salvador

October Games:

Game 5
El Salvador at Dominican Republic
October 7, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Panamericano, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic

Game 6
Suriname at Cayman Islands
October 7, 2011
Time: 8:30 pm EDT
Location: Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town, Cayman Islands

Game 7
Dominican Republic at Suriname
October 11, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Andre Kamperveen Stadion, Paramaribo, Suriname

Game 8
Cayman Islands at El Salvador
October 11, 2011
Time: 9:30 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador, El Salvador

A repeat of the September games in reversed home venues. Only real surprise of September was a Dominican draw with Suriname which has seriously damaged Suriname's chances of advancing from this group. Should make the Suriname-DR return matchup the most important one of the month. If everything goes according to plan, El Salvador and Suriname should go undefeated and face off in November to advance. If Suriname stumbles again though, they could be on the brink of giving El Salvador the group.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

El Salvador-12 pts
Suriname-8 pts
x-Dominican Republic-2 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

September Review: North America-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Suriname def. Cayman Islands 1-0 in Paramaribo, Suriname on September 2, 2011

• Suriname Goals-Friso Mando (11')

Not the start Suriname was looking for but they'll take a victory. Narrowly beating Cayman Islands is not a good omen for them though. I dubbed them the only team capable of topping El Salvador in this group and 1-0 victories over Cayman Islands aren't going to instill any fear in the Salvadoran team.

Game 2-El Salvador def. Dominican Republic 3-2 in San Salvador, El Salvador on September 2, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Rodolfo Zelaya (54',77'), Christian Bautista (63')
• Dominican Republic Goals-Johan Cruz (66'), Domingo Peralta (89')

Impressive fight shown by the Dominican Republic. Rather then folding after surrendering the first goal by Zelaya they crawled back and managed a pair of goals to keep the scoreline at 1 despite being down to 10 men for most of the second half. Surely has to be a wake-up call for El Salvador who looked sluggish for much of the match and were at risk of giving away the victory to the worst team in the group.

Game 3-Suriname tied Dominican Republic 1-1 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic on September 6, 2011

• Suriname Goals-Friso Mando (25')
• Dominican Republic Goals-Erick Ozuna (68')

I'm beginning to come to the conclusion that Suriname isn't necessarily playing down to their opponents; they just aren't that good. Another quick lead was grabbed courtesy of a Friso Mando penalty kick but Suriname could do nothing to pad their lead and relentless pressure by the Dominican Republic led to an inevitable equalizing goal. Now 2 points back of El Salvador in the group, Suriname has a tough road to climb to advance to Round 3.

Game 4-El Salvador def. Cayman Islands 4-1 in George Town, Cayman Islands on September 6, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Christian Bautista (49'), Luis Anaya (62',80'), Xavier Garcia (90+3')
• Cayman Islands Goals-Mark Ebanks (73')

This is more what you would expect to see from El Salvador in a group like this. Like in their first game, they posted no first half goals as they tested out their opponent but the goals came pouring in in the second half as they cruised to a 4-1 victory. Scoring primarily in the second half is not a bad habit to have but what was better about this game for El Salvador is that they slammed the door shut on their opponent, unlike in their first game where they allowed the Dominican Republic to hang around.

Thoughts

Cayman Islands-Not exactly a surprise that they find themselves at the bottom of the group. Suriname and El Salvador are clearly ahead of them in talent and coaching. They'll finish up qualifying with a pair of games against a more suitable opponent in the Dominican Republic. Unfortunately for the Caymans, those games will probably be meaningless if they don't pick up some wins in October.

Dominican Republic-I'm impressed with their play even they're only one point. This isn't the same Dominican team we've seen in years past. They're focused and are willing to play aggressive football which is nice to see; most overmatched teams have a tendency to sit back and let the opponent come to them. This team is showing no fear and it makes for some exciting games. All that said, they're still in the same boat as Cayman Islands. They need points and quickly if they want to advance.

El Salvador-Shaky first game but much better showing in the second. Some first half scoring to take the pressure would be helpful but I don't think the coaching staff will be upset with 7 goals in 2 games. If they continue on this path then advancement should be easily attainable.

Suriname-Like I said earlier, I'm not yet sure if they're playing beneath their capabilities or I'm overrating them. It's probably a bit of both. Regardless, they absolutely have to make sure they can pick up a pair of wins in October before facing El Salvador in November. Being down 2 points going in to that series is acceptable. Being down 4 (or more) points would be crippling for Suriname.

Going Forward

Four group games for CONCACAF in October as opposed to 2 for Asia. On the 7th, El Salvador travels to Dominican Republic while Suriname visits Cayman Islands. On the 11th, Cayman Islands goes to El Salvador while Dominican Republic is at Suriname.

I felt both El Salvador and Suriname would win both games in September and the same is true for these games setting up a decisive series in November. Both Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic will be eliminated on the 7th if BOTH TEAMS LOSE.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

El Salvador-6 pts
Suriname-6 pts
Cayman Islands-0 pts
Dominican Republic-0 pts

Actual:

El Salvador-6 pts
Suriname-4 pts
Dominican Republic-1 pts
Cayman Islands-0 pts

Ruined by the Suriname-DR tie. I can assure you though that game is more upsetting for Suriname then for me.

North America: Round 2-Group 1 Primer

World Ranking

Cayman Islands-172nd (28th North America)
Dominican Republic-132nd (18th North America)
El Salvador-78th (7th North America)
Suriname-110th (12th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Cayman Islands at Suriname
• Dominican Republic at El Salvador

September 6, 2011

• El Salvador at Cayman Islands
• Suriname at Dominican Republic

October 7, 2011

• El Salvador at Dominican Republic
• Suriname at Cayman Islands

October 11, 2011

• Cayman Islands at El Salvador
• Dominican Republic at Suriname

November 11, 2011

• El Salvador at Suriname
• Cayman Islands at Dominican Republic

November 15, 2011

• Suriname at El Salvador
• Dominican Republic at Cayman Islands

Past International Records

Cayman Islands

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 1-1-0
  

Dominican Republic

• 2011 to date: 4-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-1-0

El Salvador

• 2011 to date: 6-4-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-9-3
  
• vs. Group opponents: 6-1-0
  

Suriname

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-4-2
  
• vs. Group opponents: 2-6-0

Team Glimpses

Cayman Islands

The smallest nation in this group, Cayman Islands have played just two international games in the past year, defeating Anguilla and losing to Puerto Rico. Cayman Islands suffer from the same problems that plague many of the Caribbean and Latin American countries: lack of sufficient funds to support a national team and subsequently very few games played. We saw an example of this on Friday when Bahamas withdrew due to the costs required of fielding a team for 6 games in 3 months. By far the lowest ranked team in the group, Cayman Islands will just be trying not to get blown out of the water against teams like El Salvador and Suriname. Best shot at picking up points will be against Dominican Republic, the only team in the group Cayman Islands have a victory against, although you have to go back to 2002 to when that happened.

Dominican Republic

Severely overrated right now as a result of a pair of Round 1 victories over Anguilla, Dominican Republic is another side that should find themselves in over their head in this group although not to the degree Cayman Islands is. They are 4-0-0 in 2011 but with a pair of victories over Anguilla and Curacao, that isn't going to impress anyone outside of the Dominican. To boot, they have a brutal schedule in this group, drawing both their games against El Salvador and Suriname in September and October. They probably need to win at least 2 of those matches if they want to advance and I can't see that happening. One point to make regarding FIFA ranking: It isn't the greatest predictor of future results. I use it because it's convenient and people like to see it but if you're trying to predict the future with it, it will fail you. It's entirely results-based and its weighted based on how recent the result was, who a team played and at what level of competition was it. Why is this relevant? Well Dominican Republic was 172nd in the world, underwhelmingly beat the 197th ranked team in the world and all of a sudden jumped 40 spots to 132nd directly ahead of Dominica and Puerto Rico, teams who both beat the Dominican last go around.

El Salvador

The powerhouse of the group and surprise, surprise, they play far more games then all of their opponents (14 so far in 2011, more then triple the combined 2011 matches of the rest of the group combined). It wasn't long ago that El Salvador was in the same boat as teams like Dominican Republic, they entered 2010 qualifying ranked 20th in North America, but they scratched and clawed their way through 4 rounds of qualifying resulting in a 5th place finish, one place shy of an inter-confederational playoff. Now, they're ranked 7th in the continent and have the expectation of returning to the final round, and hopefully in the eyes of Salvadoran supporters qualifying for the finals. El Salvador will have been looking forward to this group now for a while. The biggest threat is from Suriname, a team El Salvador has owned in history with 6 wins in 7 matches. Last time they met was in Round 3 of 2010 qualifying, with El Salvador emerging with 2-0 and 3-0 victories. Scary part for their opponents? El Salvador is a much better team now than they were then....

Suriname

Along with Guyana, one of two CONCACAF members not geographically located in North America, Central America or the Caribbean. The nation from the northern coast of South America is the 2nd seed in this group and is the only likely challenger to El Salvador's dominance over this group. One result Suriname can hang their hat on in the past year is a 3-3 draw with Cuba last November. That effort will be required in all games if they wish to advance to Round 3. Because of how the schedule plays out, Suriname's games against El Salvador will both fall in November, and be the last 2 games for both teams in the group. Look for that home-and-home series to decide the entire group, as both teams could very well be 4-0-0 heading in to November.

September Games:

Game 1
Cayman Islands at Suriname
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Andre Kamperveen Stadion, Paramaribo, Suriname

Game 2
Dominican Republic at El Salvador
September 2, 2011
Time: 9:30 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador, El Salvador

Game 3
El Salvador at Cayman Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town, Cayman Islands

Game 4
Suriname at Dominican Republic
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Panamericano, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic

No real marquee matches because of how the schedule falls. Only game with upset potential would probably be on the 6th when Suriname travels to the Dominican Republic. That is a must-win game for the Dominicans and they won't have a better shot at it then against Suriname at home.

Cayman Islands home game against El Salvador four days removed from playing Suriname could be a bloodbath.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

El Salvador-6 pts
Suriname-6 pts
Cayman Islands-0 pts
Dominican Republic-0 pts