CONCACAF Round 3 Groups

With winners of all 6 groups in Round 2 now decided, we now know exactly what the groups for North America Round 3 will be. They are as follows:

Group 1



Group 2



Group 3



Initial thoughts are that the groups range in difficulty from 2 being the toughest to 1 being the easiest, with 3 closer to 2 on that spectrum.

Group 3 will be a very demanding group. All 4 teams have the potential to advance although Honduras and Panama should be slight favourites. Group 2 is similar except the overall calibre of the group is even better. Half of the participants competed in Round 4 last campaign, and Guyana eliminated a 4th Round 4 member when they knocked out Trinidad in Round 2. Mexico will be favoured to go on with either Costa Rica or El Salvador. Those 2 teams will have a war trying to determine which one advances.

As for Group 1, USA is way ahead of all the other opponents in this group. It was going to be the easiest group to begin with. But upsetting performances by Grenada and Haiti mean that neither Round 2 participant was even a top seed in their group. Jamaica and Guatemala will be pesky but USA should have no problem getting out of this group. Guatemala has been very strong in qualifying but Jamaica might be too much to overcome at this point.

Game Schedule is yet to be released although matches are slated to take place between June-October 2012.

Way too early prediction for Round 4 participants:

Costa Rica
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Panama
USA

November 2011 Preview: North America-Group 3

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Dominica-152nd (Down 3), 24th N. America (Down 3)
Nicaragua-160th (Down 4), 26th N. America (Down 1)
Panama-53rd (Even), 4th N. America (Even)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama 2-1 Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Panama 5-0 Dominica

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua 1-5 Panama

November 11, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

November Games:

Game 5
Dominica at Nicaragua
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua

Game 6
Dominica at Panama
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City, Panama

With Panama having won the group already, these games serve only to complete the schedule. It's Dominica's turn to play twice in a 3-team group and unfortunately for them, the bottom-dwellers must play both remaining matches on the road. Dominica has not scored in either of their qualifying matches so far this campaign, while surrendering 7 goals against, 5 to Panama in their last outing.

Final Standing Predictions:

a-Panama-12 pts
x-Nicaragua-6 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

Dominica couldn't manage anything at home playing against competition who have both improved since they last played. No points for Dominica. They might not even manage a goal...

October 2011 Review: North America-Group 3

Standings



Game Results

Game 3-Panama def. Dominica 5-0 in Roseau, Dominica on October 7, 2011

• Panama Goals-Amir White (26', 89'), Luis Tejada (34'), Blas Perez (57'), Ricardo Buitrago (62')

Dominica stood no chance against a bigger, faster and more organized Panama team who spent the whole game weaving holes through the Dominican defence to the goal. The Dominican defence looked lost for much of the game and never stood a chance at putting goals on the scoreboard of their own. Dominican goalkeeping was weak as well, with at least 2 of the Panama goals coming off of shots one would expect a goalkeeper at this level to stop.

Game 4-Panama def. Nicaragua 5-1 in Panama City, Panama on October 11, 2011

• Panama Goals-Luis Tejada (27', 64'), Blas Perez (48', 51', 87')
• Nicaragua Goals-Daniel Reyes (88')

In a must-win game for Nicaragua, they managed to stick around for a half before falling down by 3 goals at the start of the second, clinching the game and subsequently the group for Panama. Reyes' 88th minute goal was the first Nicaraguan goal against Panama in almost 2 qualifying matches, not counting the own goal from Panama in their first match.

Thoughts

Dominica-The second seed in this group, they looked completely overwhelmed against Panama. Paired with a 2-0 loss to Nicaragua in September where they surrendered a goal in the 1st minute, this team is cemented at the bottom of the group. And with 2 games left, they are already eliminated from qualifying, unable to catch group leader Panama.

Nicaragua-Gave it their best shot against Panama when they needed to but once the second half started things fell apart for the Nicaraguans. I've still been impressed by their fight in this campaign when many thought they had no chance from the beginning. Nicaragua will meet Dominica in November in their final qualifying match with a shot to finish the campaign at the .500 mark.

Panama-2 games, 2 wins and a +9 goal differential in October, along with the claim to be the first Round 2 team to advance in CONCACAF. Panama struggled in September but looked dominant this month in clinching the group. Panama will have one more game against Dominica this round before advancing to Round 3. I expect to see some unfamiliar names in the starting lineup as Panama looks to build depth going forward.

Going Forward

Dominica's turn to play twice in November as they'll meet Nicaragua on the 11th and Panama on the 15th. Dominica has both games on the road, and both are meaningless at this point.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

Actual:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

No huge surprises, but Panama cleaned up in both October games, picking up the group.

October 2011 Preview: North America-Group 3

Group Primer here.
September Recap here.

Standings



World Ranking/Change from Previous Rank

Dominica-149th (Down 16), 21st N. America (Down 2)
Nicaragua-156th (Up 21), 25th N. America (Up 4)
Panama-53rd (Up 12), t-4th N. America (Up 2)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama 2-1 Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Panama at Dominica

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua at Panama

November 11, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

October Games:

Game 3
Panama at Dominica
October 7, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica

Game 4
Nicaragua at Panama
October 11, 2011
Time: 9:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City, Panama

Fully expecting a Panama victory against Dominica on Friday. I'm a little more intrigued by the second October game though. It will be an elimination game for Nicaragua and likely a chance for Panama to secure advancement. If Nicaragua is hungry enough and plays the game of its life then they might have a chance. Make no mistake though, Panama is far and away the class of this group.

Post-October Standing Predictions:

a-Panama-9 pts
x-Nicaragua-3 pts
x-Dominica-0 pts

I anticipate Panama winning both games in October which would clinch advancement and eliminate Nicaragua and Dominica with 2 group games to play.

CONCACAF Group 3 Schedule Change

Just a quick update to inform you of a change to the order of matches in Group 3 of CONCACAF qualifying. After Bahamas exited the competition, the schedule was unbalanced with Nicaragua playing all of their games in September and October while Panama and Dominica would only play 2 in those months and then 2 in November.

In the interest of fairness to all teams, the match order has been changed. Nicaragua will still play Panama in October but the other game will be Panama-Dominica instead of Nicaragua-Dominica. This way, all 3 teams in the group will be required to play 2 games in quick succession only once in this round. As it was originally set up, Nicaragua had to do it twice.

September Review: North America-Group 3

[ed.]-For reasons explained here, two posts today. Nothing tomorrow.

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Nicaragua def. Dominica 2-0 in Roseau, Dominica on September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua Goals-Raul Leguias (1'), Felix Rodriguez (36')

I can admit when I'm wrong. I thought Nicaragua was dead to rights in this group. Not only did they jump out to a lead seconds in to the game, they were able to carry that dominance through to full time, picking up an impressive 2-0 victory. Great news for Nicaragua although advancement remains unlikely. As for Dominica, they've created a huge hole for themselves having played just 1 game (harsh reality of a 3-team group). They'll need to come up with a big win in the return leg against Nicaragua if they want any chance of competing with Panama for advancement in November.

Game 2-Panama def. Nicaragua 2-1 in Managua, Nicaragua on September 6, 2011

• Panama Goals-Luis Tejada (7'), Roman Torres (18' OG), Blas Perez (50')

Roman Torres made things a bit tougher for Panama with an own goal in the 18th minute but it was otherwise smooth sailing for Panama in this one. Too much power up front for Panama who threatened the Nicaraguan goal all night. The Nicaraguan defence should consider itself lucky they only surrendered two in this game. A long shot for Nicaragua to win this game. If they want to maintain their slim advancement hopes, they will likely need wins in both of their remaining games.

Thoughts

Dominica-Amazing what 1 bad result can do in qualifying. Even with a victory in their next game, barring a major surprise, they'll be 3 points behind Panama entering their series with them, a near-insurmountable task. They weren't ready to face Nicaragua and it showed in the result. Subsequently, they're facing a series of must-win games in a row.

Nicaragua-So maybe I was a little hasty in my group preview when I posted this to sum up Nicaragua's chances going in to qualifying:



Again, Nicaragua, my sincere apologies. In one game, you far exceeded my expectations for you in all of qualifying. You have 2 games in October and you probably need to win both if you want to advance. I still don't think you can but it is not nearly as impossible for you as I thought. You certainly won't be eliminated October 7th as I originally surmised. Possibly on the 11th, but not on the 7th...

Panama-Nice of Panama to notch an own goal in their game against Nicaragua. Might be the only goal they give up in Round 2. Panama was the heavy favourite going in and little has changed since. Panama meets Nicaragua again in October and a win will put them just a draw away from clinching advancement in this group. Need to avoid a letdown, not because they could lose the group but simply to keep momentum and composure up before they get to Round 3.

Going Forward

October will see a repeat of the matches in September but at opposing home venues. Nicaragua will play host to Dominica on the 7th before traveling to Panama on the 11th. Not sure what to expect from the Nicaragua-Dominica game any more. Nicaragua was far and awar the better team in their first meeting. Dominica is capable of making a rapid turnaround though. Panama will be expected to again beat Nicaragua. No team will be able to clinch advancement in October and Dominica will not be able to be eliminated. However Nicaragua will play their last game of the round on October 11th. If they are behind Panama in points at that time, they will be eliminated.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts

Actual:

Panama-3 pts
Nicaragua-3 pts
Dominica-0 pts

Whiffed on the Dominica-Nicaragua prediction (not unlike Dominica did in the game...).

North America: Round 2-Group 3 Primer

[ed.] Double post of groups today. I'll be on vacation next week so I want to get all the primers for the groups playing in September done this week. Speaking of vacation, I'll be away from a computer from August 28th through September 2nd. Yes, September 2nd is a gameday. I'll have access to a computer in the evening that day so I'll probably just do a scoreboard when I get home and update the CONCACAF scores as they happen. I'll then be away from a computer on the 3rd and 4th before being back full-time on the 5th. What does this mean? Comeprehensive recaps are going to wait until after the games on the 6th, and I'll just go group-by-group like I've done in the previews. Haven't decided what to do on the 6th but if my readership has gotten high enough by then I might just live blog all or parts of the day.

Bahamas Exit

For those that missed my earlier post on it, Bahamas withdrew from qualifying last Friday. Concerns mainly resulted from the renovations around the National Stadium in Nassau not having been completed. Bahamas also cited an inability for fans to see the team as a result of having to play all of their games on the road. I briefly expressed my opinion on the matter in that post and debated about whether or not I should bother in this one but decided it needed proper attention.

Shame on the Bahamas football federation. First off, you have a suitable field at home in the Bahamas. You played your Round 1 home leg at the Roscow A.L. Davies Soccer Field in Nassau. 1600 people showed up and it's a FIFA-approved venue otherwise you wouldn't have been allowed to play there. Is it the 15,000 seat stadium you were hoping for? No. Is it better then playing on the road all the time? Absolutely. So don't throw out the argument that cost is an issue. You are competing for an opportunity for your country to be involved in the greatest sporting spectacle in the world. Deal with it, open up the pocketbook if necessary, and play the matches you're supposed to.

The real loser in this situation? Not the Bahamas team or its fans but the fans/players for Turks and Caicos. Turks and Caicos lost their Round 1 pairing to Bahamas, eliminating them from contention, and now the team that beat them has dropped out because they aren't going to be able to profit off of it. I'd be furious if I were Turks and Caicos. Not that they would have stood a chance in Round 2 but better to see the team that eliminated them compete and put forth an effort rather then back out at the last second.

There is no Group 3 replacement for Bahamas and the group is now a 3-team group consisting of Dominica, Nicaragua, and Panama.

World Ranking

Dominica-133rd (19th North America)
Nicaragua-177th (29th North America)
Panama-65th (6th North America)

Schedule

September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua at Dominica

September 6, 2011

• Panama at Nicaragua

October 7, 2011

• Dominica at Nicaragua

October 11, 2011

• Nicaragua at Panama

November 11, 2011

• Panama at Dominica

November 15, 2011

• Dominica at Panama

Past International Records

Dominica

• 2011 to date: 0-0-0
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
  
• vs. Group opponents: 0-0-0

Nicaragua

• 2011 to date: 0-4-2
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 4-13-0

Panama

• 2011 to date: 8-2-4
  
• 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-0
  
• vs. Group opponents: 13-4-0

Team Glimpses

Dominica

Dominica have been inactive since November 2010 and the Caribbean Championship, where they managed to grab just a single point in 3 matches. Having never played either of their group opponents it's tough to gauge how they'll stack up but they appear to be at a serious disadvantage in a group with Panama, the top seed in Round 2. Dominica will start their campaign with a pair of games against lowly Nicaragua before they have to meet Panama. They absolutely need to get a win in both games against Nicaragua in order to keep pace with Panama and set up an opportunity in November to knock off the Latin American powerhouse.

Nicaragua

Credit where credit is due; despite having played 6 games in 2011 without a victory, they've actually done better then I thought they had in those games. None of their losses have been by more then goals, they posted a draw against Cuba in May. All in all, a respectable performance by one of the worst nations in CONCACAF. That said, full disclosure, my original temptation was to simply post the following here:



It's unfortunate for Nicaragua that A) they drew Panama and B) because of how the schedule works with the Bahamas exit, they are the only team playing two doubleheaders as opposed to just one. No doubt in my mind, they will the first CONCACAF team eliminated from contention, probably on October 7th.

Panama

If you're going solely off of 2011 results, Panama might be the best team in CONCACAF right now. And yes, I'm including the U.S. and Mexico when I say that. 3 victories against El Salvador, 2 victories over South American side Bolivia and a split with the U.S. at the Gold Cup highlight their 2011 campaign so far. Drawn in to a group with a pair of pushovers (a trio if Bahamas was still here) they'll be looking ahead to Round 3 (and hopefully Round 4) from the get-go. Normally I'd say that's a bad thing; in this case not at all. Panama will cruise through this group.

September Games:

Game 1
Nicaragua at Dominica
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica

Game 2
Panama at Nicaragua
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua

Little intrigue in Game 2, Panama should won easily. For competition's sake, I'm hoping Dominica can top Nicaragua, if only to make the November matches between Dominica-Panama worth something.

Post-September Standing Predictions:

Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts