September Review: North America-Group 3

[ed.]-For reasons explained here, two posts today. Nothing tomorrow.

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Nicaragua def. Dominica 2-0 in Roseau, Dominica on September 2, 2011

• Nicaragua Goals-Raul Leguias (1'), Felix Rodriguez (36')

I can admit when I'm wrong. I thought Nicaragua was dead to rights in this group. Not only did they jump out to a lead seconds in to the game, they were able to carry that dominance through to full time, picking up an impressive 2-0 victory. Great news for Nicaragua although advancement remains unlikely. As for Dominica, they've created a huge hole for themselves having played just 1 game (harsh reality of a 3-team group). They'll need to come up with a big win in the return leg against Nicaragua if they want any chance of competing with Panama for advancement in November.

Game 2-Panama def. Nicaragua 2-1 in Managua, Nicaragua on September 6, 2011

• Panama Goals-Luis Tejada (7'), Roman Torres (18' OG), Blas Perez (50')

Roman Torres made things a bit tougher for Panama with an own goal in the 18th minute but it was otherwise smooth sailing for Panama in this one. Too much power up front for Panama who threatened the Nicaraguan goal all night. The Nicaraguan defence should consider itself lucky they only surrendered two in this game. A long shot for Nicaragua to win this game. If they want to maintain their slim advancement hopes, they will likely need wins in both of their remaining games.

Thoughts

Dominica-Amazing what 1 bad result can do in qualifying. Even with a victory in their next game, barring a major surprise, they'll be 3 points behind Panama entering their series with them, a near-insurmountable task. They weren't ready to face Nicaragua and it showed in the result. Subsequently, they're facing a series of must-win games in a row.

Nicaragua-So maybe I was a little hasty in my group preview when I posted this to sum up Nicaragua's chances going in to qualifying:



Again, Nicaragua, my sincere apologies. In one game, you far exceeded my expectations for you in all of qualifying. You have 2 games in October and you probably need to win both if you want to advance. I still don't think you can but it is not nearly as impossible for you as I thought. You certainly won't be eliminated October 7th as I originally surmised. Possibly on the 11th, but not on the 7th...

Panama-Nice of Panama to notch an own goal in their game against Nicaragua. Might be the only goal they give up in Round 2. Panama was the heavy favourite going in and little has changed since. Panama meets Nicaragua again in October and a win will put them just a draw away from clinching advancement in this group. Need to avoid a letdown, not because they could lose the group but simply to keep momentum and composure up before they get to Round 3.

Going Forward

October will see a repeat of the matches in September but at opposing home venues. Nicaragua will play host to Dominica on the 7th before traveling to Panama on the 11th. Not sure what to expect from the Nicaragua-Dominica game any more. Nicaragua was far and awar the better team in their first meeting. Dominica is capable of making a rapid turnaround though. Panama will be expected to again beat Nicaragua. No team will be able to clinch advancement in October and Dominica will not be able to be eliminated. However Nicaragua will play their last game of the round on October 11th. If they are behind Panama in points at that time, they will be eliminated.

Post-September Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts

Actual:

Panama-3 pts
Nicaragua-3 pts
Dominica-0 pts

Whiffed on the Dominica-Nicaragua prediction (not unlike Dominica did in the game...).