AFRICA (CAF) QUALIFYING
Teams Participating: 52
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 5
2010 Finals Participants:
Algeria (4th Group C, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 2 GA)
Cameroon (4th Group E, 0-3-0, 2 GF, 5 GA)
Ghana (Quarterfinals (2nd Group D), 2-1-2, 5 GF, 4 GA)
Ivory Coast (3rd Group G, 1-1-1, 4 GF, 3 GA)
Nigeria (4th Group B, 0-2-1, 3 GF, 5 GA)
South Africa (3rd Group A, 1-1-1, 3 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
2010 was the first time the World Cup Finals were held in Africa, and as a result, the continent had the most participants they've ever had at 6 teams. No longer the host they will be down to 5 slots again for 2014.
2010 qualifying exposed some of the persistent problems existing in African football as no less than 4 teams withdrew during the competition due to corruption amongst their governing bodies. There was also some controversy in Group C of Round 3, as violence erupted in 2 separate matches between Algerian and Egyptian fans, resulting in injuries and deaths.
It was also a qualifying campaign with few surprises, as the prohibitive favourites in almost every group qualified comfortably for the Finals in South Africa.
Structure for 2014
African qualifying will again have 3 rounds, but has been set up differently. In 2010, Rounds 2 and 3 were double round-robin group stages, and Round 1 was a 2-leg playoff round. Round 1 remains the same format, but Round 3 will also consist of a 2-leg playoff.
The slots in each round have been amended as well. In 2010, the objective of Round 1 was to pare the field to the 48 teams competing in Round 2. 20 teams would then advance to the penultimate Round 3. For 2014, only 40 teams will feature in Round 2 as opposed to 48. This means Round 2 will be smaller, but Round 1 will considerably bigger as more teams will participate and subsequently be eliminated at that phase. Round 3 is also smaller, featuring just 10 teams, half as many as competed at that stage for 2010.
All 52 participating teams were seeded prior to the draw. The top 28 teams will receive a bye to Round 2, while the remaining 24 will contest Round 1. Round 1 will consist of 12 pairs of 2 teams participating in 2-leg playoffs. The 12 winners will complete the Round 2 field of 40 teams. Round 2 will consist of 10 groups of 4 teams, playing a double round-robin. The group winners will advance to Round 3, while all other teams will be eliminated. Round 3 will then feature 5 pairs of 2 teams playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners of those playoffs will qualify for the World Cup.
The Seeding
Advanced to Round 2:
1. Ivory Coast
2. Egypt
3. Ghana
4. Burkina Faso
5. Nigeria
6. Senegal
7. South Africa
8. Cameroon
9. Algeria
10. Tunisia
11. Gabon
12. Libya
13. Morocco
14. Guinea
15. Botswana
16. Malawi
17. Zambia
18. Uganda
19. Mali
20. Cape Verde
21. Benin
22. Zimbabwe
23. Central African Republic
24. Sierra Leone
25. Sudan
26. Niger
27. Angola
28. Gambia
Round 1 Participants:
29. Mozambique
30. Democratic Republic of Congo
31. Togo
32. Liberia
33. Tanzania
34. Congo
35. Kenya
36. Rwanda
37. Ethiopia
38. Namibia
39. Burundi
40. Madagascar
41. Guinea-Bissau
42. Equatorial Guinea
43. Chad
44. Swaziland
45. Comoros
46. Lesotho
47. Eritrea
48. Somalia
49. Djibouti
50. Mauritius
51. Seychelles
52. Sao Tome and Principe
Round 1
Round 1 will consist of the 28 lowest-ranked teams in qualifying. Games are scheduled to be played in November 2011. The pairings were drawn at the 2014 preliminary draw in July 2011. They are as follows:
Pairing 1: KENYA vs. SEYCHELLES
Kenya is perhaps a little underrated in their seeding; traditionally they're in the upper half of African football. While they've struggled in 2011, they should overmatch Seychelles in this pairing. The pairing winner will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 2: GUINEA-BISSAU vs. TOGO
Togo is another team unfortunate to feature in Round 1. Only 5 years removed from a World Cup Finals appearance in 2006, they have not won a senior level match since November 2009. Guinea-Bissau will need to be at their strongest to beat Togo, but given Togo's poor form, the opportunity is there for the upset. The pairing winner will advance to Group 9 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 3: DJIBOUTI vs. NAMIBIA
Neither team is a threat to make noise in Round 2. Djibouti has not scored a goal at the senior level since January 2009. Namibia should coast in this matchup. The winner will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 4: LIBERIA vs. MAURITIUS
Liberia has won it's last 2 games and only lost twice in its last 6. Mauritius' only victory since 2007 came against Comoros, one of the few teams in Africa arguably worse than Mauritius. Liberia will be happy with their draw and it would be a shock if they did not advance. The pairing winner will advance to Group 10 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 5: COMOROS vs. MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique is the highest seeded Round 1 participant facing off against a Comoros team that has not won since October 2009. Mozambique was a surprise in 2010 qualifying, recording wins over Kenya and Tunisia as well as tying Nigeria in the final round of qualifying. They should have little with Comoros, a team they beat in a friendly last year. The winner will advance to Group 7 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 6: EQUATORIAL GUINEA vs. MADAGASCAR
The most evenly matched first-round matchup with these teams checking in at 40 and 42 in the seeding. Equatorial Guinea has had success in 2011 with a pair of shutout wins over Chad and Gambia. Madagascar also impressed in their last game with a narrow 1-0 loss to Asian power Iran. From a competition standpoint, this should be the best Round 1 pairing. The winner will advance to Group 2 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 7: ETHIOPIA vs. SOMALIA
Border matchups are always interesting and this should be no exception. Ethiopia had had moderate success recently but if anything, are entertaining for the fans as their games tend to breed lots goals, both for and against. Somalia will be hindered by both a dearth of talent, and also the inability to contest a game at home due to ongoing strife in the country. While not announced, I imagine Ethiopia will host both legs of the playoff, and advance easily. The winner will be in Group 1 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 8: BURUNDI vs. LESOTHO
2 of the smallest nations in Africa will contest the 8th pairing in Round 1. Lesotho has not played since 2009, but was somewhat successful in that year, posting 1 win, 1 loss and 5 draws, albeit against poor competition. Burundi has struggled of late, althouh did defeat neighbour Rwanda in June 2011. In the end, Burundi should be the victor, as they are a stronger side and have played a number of games in African Cup Qualifying where Lesotho has not. The winner will advance to Group 4 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 9: ERITREA vs. RWANDA
Eritrea has just 1 win since 2009, and that was against bottom-dweller Somalia. They've played Rwanda twice in the past 5 years, Rwanda victorious in both games. Look for Rwanda to win this matchup handily. The winner will advance to Group 8 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 10: D.R. OF CONGO vs. SWAZILAND
D.R. of Congo (not to be confused with Congo) has played 7 games in 2011, with great success posting 5 wins and 2 losses, with a pair of wins against Kenya as well as against Sudan. They are one of the hottest teams in Africa playing a Swailand team without a win since 2009. D.R. of Congo shouldn't have trouble in this pairing. The winner will advance to Group 9 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 11: CONGO vs. SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
I could try and break down the matchup but that would be a waste. What you need to know: it will have been 8 years since they played a competitive match when Sao Tome and Principe takes the field in November. Congo isn't great, but I like their chances against a team that will likely field no one with senior level international experience. The winner will advance to Group 5 of Round 2 in CAF Qualifying.
Pairing 12: CHAD vs. TANZANIA
Neither team will enter qualifying at their best. Chad has not scored a goal in 3 games in 2011 and has not won since 2008. Tanzania is on a 3 game losing streak but has posted a pair of wins and ties in early 2011. Chad has the ability to pull an upset in this pairing provided they can regain their form in time for mid-November. The winner will advance to Group 3 of Round 2 in CAF qualifing.
Round 2
The 28 highest seeded teams and the 12 Round 1 winners make up the field for Round 2. They were drawn in to 10 groups of 4 at the 2014 preliminary draw. Games are scheduled to be played between June 2012 and September 2013, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: A weak group to start out qualifying with. South Africa is one of the lower top seeds and frankly is rated higher then they should be on the strength of a surprising run at the World Cup and some success against middling African teams since. That said, they don't exactly have formidable competition in this group. Botswana has posted some strong results but the darkhorse threat could come from an Ethiopian team who can score goals and were only eliminated from 2010 qualifying because of a suspension to their federation.
Prediction: South Africa wins but it won't be easy. I think Central African Rep. is the only team without a reasonable chance of advancement from this group.
Group 2
Analysis: A 2-horse race between Cape Verde and Tunisia. Cape Verde has posted some big results in the past year, notably a win over Burkina Faso and a draw with Portugal. They'll face a stiff test in Tunisia who only missed out on a 2010 finals appearance as the result of a shock 1-0 loss to Mozambique on the final day of qualifying. Sierra Leone and the Round 1 winner should not pose a threat.
Prediction: Tunisia comes out on top. Cape Verde has been impressive but so has Tunisia and the Tunisian team has played stiffer competition over the years, and made appearances at the World Cup finals. They're also unlikely to throw away any points against the other two teams in the group, something Cape Verde could very well do at some point in the competition.
Group 3
Analysis: Tough break for everyone in this group to have drawn Ivory Coast, far and away the strongest team in Africa. The Ivorians primary challenge will come from Morocco, a side just on the outside of the top echelon in African football. Biggest concern for the Ivory Coast though is age. They had one of the older rosters in South Africa and will need to replace those players in the next few years in order to keep their spot as top dog in Africa.
Prediction: It really is too bad for Morocco, because in most other groups I think they would stand a fair chance of advancing. In Group C though, it should be Ivory Coast running away with it before the final matchday.
Group 4
Analysis: Ghana is one of the top teams, not just in Africa but in the world, as they showed in South Africa last year, losing to Uruguay in the quarterfinals in a game many thought they were robbed of a victory in. Ghana will be pleased with this group. Zambia is the next highest ranked team at just 17th in the continent and has lost to Libya and Ethiopia of late. Ghana will have to seriously flounder at some point in qualifying if any of the other teams want a shot at advancement.
Prediction: Ghana in a landslide. Taking 18 of 18 possible points would not be surprising in any way.
Group 5
Analysis: One of the realities in African football is that their are clear echelons of teams. In group play, you can generally see before play starts who should win. This group is an exception to that which is nice as an observer. Congo is probably unlikely to win the group but any of the other 3 could take the group if they play to their best. Burkina Faso is the highest rated but hasn't been overly impressive of late, losing to Cape Verde and tying group-mate Gabon. Gabon is a team not to sleep on, they've posted some losses recently but were very successful in 2010 qualifying, and looked for a while that they would knock off African power Cameroon in their final group. And Niger is a team that has demonstrated an ability to compete with the best, defeating Egypt and tying Libya in the past year.
Prediction: I do these predictions because it's just part of writing about sports and people want to see it. I do it as objectively as possible, and it usually results in predicting the top seed. I;m breaking that habit here. I liked Gabon in 2010 qualifying and if they can carry the momentum from that campaign forward, they can take this group. In any case, this will be an interesting one to follow.
Group 6
Analysis: One of two groups that will feature 2 Round 1 teams, the only one of those four that could be a threat would be Kenya. In reality, this is Nigeria's group to lose, with Malawi and Kenya fighting it out for second. Nigeria defeated Kenya earlier this year and also posted a 4-1 victory over Argentina in a friendly.
Prediction: Nigeria. Far and away the best team in an otherwise soft group.
Group 7
Analysis: Egypt is one of the best teams in Africa when it chooses to be, and that will be something to watch in this group. Guinea, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are all top 30 teams in Africa and if Egypt sleeps on any of them, then they will lose.
Prediction: Egypt but I don't have a lot of confidence in that prediction. They are such a roller coaster of a team and you never what you'll get from them. Saving grace for them might be that the rest of the group is so evenly matched that they're likely to split results against each other.
Group 8
Analysis: I'm very curious to see if Algeria can follow-up on its succuessful qualifying campaign in 2010. They were a bit of a surprise qualifier, knocking off Senegal in Round 2 and then needing a playoff to beat Egypt in Round 3. I'm not convinced they can repeat, on the back of losses to Morocco and Central African Republic in recent games, as well as a draw with lowly Luxembourg. If they can regain their form then they should be fine but if not, watch for Benin or Mali to step up and perhaps be the Algeria of the 2014 campaign.
Prediction: This is entirely wide open. Not in the sense that Group 5 was where any team could step up and beat anyone, more in the sense that none of these teams are overly good. It's just be a slugfest of mediocrity. I have to go with Algeria. Not because I'm impressed with them, just because in spite of how poorly they've played, there isn't any one better in the group. Prove me wrong, please gentlemen. Prove me wrong.
Group 9
Analysis: I can guarantee you that the only teams less impressed by this draw then the Round 1 teams that will advance to it, are Cameroon and Libya at having to play each other. Ranked 8th and 12th respectively in Africa it's a brutal draw for both teams, as they will have to face the other twice and the group will likely hinge on those two games.
Prediction: Cameroon might be a slightly better team, but the edge will come from off the field. Because of the ongoing civil war, it is unforeseen whether or not Libya will get to play a home game. It's unfortunate that politics could potentially interfere, but having to face Cameroon in two away games is probably too big a hurdle for Libya.
Group 10
Analysis: I was enamoured with Group 5 because of how open it was and this is no different. Senegal is the highest seed and has posted a lot of wins in the past year but Angola and Uganda are both teams capable of competing at the top level in Africa. Look for Uganda to provide the biggest challenge, they defeated Angola 3-0 last time they met in 2010.
Prediction: Senegal is going to have to sweat against every team it meets in this group. They are the strongest team in the group. But they were also the strongest team in their Round 2 group last campaign, and found themselves on the outside looking in in Round 3.
Summary
One of the things I'm curious to see is how the shorter qualifying campaign effects some teams. With only 10 teams advancing to Round 3, every game in Round 2 will be crucial. There is no saving grace like in 2010 where 8 runners-up made it through, if you don't win your Round 2 group, you're done. That should make for some fascinating drama, especially in the second half of that round. I'll make some Round 3 predictions once the pairings are drawn. Expect most of the teams seeded 1-10 to be there, but who actually makes it to Brazil is an unknown at this point.
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 5
2010 Finals Participants:
Algeria (4th Group C, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 2 GA)
Cameroon (4th Group E, 0-3-0, 2 GF, 5 GA)
Ghana (Quarterfinals (2nd Group D), 2-1-2, 5 GF, 4 GA)
Ivory Coast (3rd Group G, 1-1-1, 4 GF, 3 GA)
Nigeria (4th Group B, 0-2-1, 3 GF, 5 GA)
South Africa (3rd Group A, 1-1-1, 3 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
2010 was the first time the World Cup Finals were held in Africa, and as a result, the continent had the most participants they've ever had at 6 teams. No longer the host they will be down to 5 slots again for 2014.
2010 qualifying exposed some of the persistent problems existing in African football as no less than 4 teams withdrew during the competition due to corruption amongst their governing bodies. There was also some controversy in Group C of Round 3, as violence erupted in 2 separate matches between Algerian and Egyptian fans, resulting in injuries and deaths.
It was also a qualifying campaign with few surprises, as the prohibitive favourites in almost every group qualified comfortably for the Finals in South Africa.
Structure for 2014
African qualifying will again have 3 rounds, but has been set up differently. In 2010, Rounds 2 and 3 were double round-robin group stages, and Round 1 was a 2-leg playoff round. Round 1 remains the same format, but Round 3 will also consist of a 2-leg playoff.
The slots in each round have been amended as well. In 2010, the objective of Round 1 was to pare the field to the 48 teams competing in Round 2. 20 teams would then advance to the penultimate Round 3. For 2014, only 40 teams will feature in Round 2 as opposed to 48. This means Round 2 will be smaller, but Round 1 will considerably bigger as more teams will participate and subsequently be eliminated at that phase. Round 3 is also smaller, featuring just 10 teams, half as many as competed at that stage for 2010.
All 52 participating teams were seeded prior to the draw. The top 28 teams will receive a bye to Round 2, while the remaining 24 will contest Round 1. Round 1 will consist of 12 pairs of 2 teams participating in 2-leg playoffs. The 12 winners will complete the Round 2 field of 40 teams. Round 2 will consist of 10 groups of 4 teams, playing a double round-robin. The group winners will advance to Round 3, while all other teams will be eliminated. Round 3 will then feature 5 pairs of 2 teams playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners of those playoffs will qualify for the World Cup.
The Seeding
Advanced to Round 2:
1. Ivory Coast
2. Egypt
3. Ghana
4. Burkina Faso
5. Nigeria
6. Senegal
7. South Africa
8. Cameroon
9. Algeria
10. Tunisia
11. Gabon
12. Libya
13. Morocco
14. Guinea
15. Botswana
16. Malawi
17. Zambia
18. Uganda
19. Mali
20. Cape Verde
21. Benin
22. Zimbabwe
23. Central African Republic
24. Sierra Leone
25. Sudan
26. Niger
27. Angola
28. Gambia
Round 1 Participants:
29. Mozambique
30. Democratic Republic of Congo
31. Togo
32. Liberia
33. Tanzania
34. Congo
35. Kenya
36. Rwanda
37. Ethiopia
38. Namibia
39. Burundi
40. Madagascar
41. Guinea-Bissau
42. Equatorial Guinea
43. Chad
44. Swaziland
45. Comoros
46. Lesotho
47. Eritrea
48. Somalia
49. Djibouti
50. Mauritius
51. Seychelles
52. Sao Tome and Principe
Round 1
Round 1 will consist of the 28 lowest-ranked teams in qualifying. Games are scheduled to be played in November 2011. The pairings were drawn at the 2014 preliminary draw in July 2011. They are as follows:
Pairing 1: KENYA vs. SEYCHELLES
Kenya is perhaps a little underrated in their seeding; traditionally they're in the upper half of African football. While they've struggled in 2011, they should overmatch Seychelles in this pairing. The pairing winner will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 2: GUINEA-BISSAU vs. TOGO
Togo is another team unfortunate to feature in Round 1. Only 5 years removed from a World Cup Finals appearance in 2006, they have not won a senior level match since November 2009. Guinea-Bissau will need to be at their strongest to beat Togo, but given Togo's poor form, the opportunity is there for the upset. The pairing winner will advance to Group 9 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 3: DJIBOUTI vs. NAMIBIA
Neither team is a threat to make noise in Round 2. Djibouti has not scored a goal at the senior level since January 2009. Namibia should coast in this matchup. The winner will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 4: LIBERIA vs. MAURITIUS
Liberia has won it's last 2 games and only lost twice in its last 6. Mauritius' only victory since 2007 came against Comoros, one of the few teams in Africa arguably worse than Mauritius. Liberia will be happy with their draw and it would be a shock if they did not advance. The pairing winner will advance to Group 10 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 5: COMOROS vs. MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique is the highest seeded Round 1 participant facing off against a Comoros team that has not won since October 2009. Mozambique was a surprise in 2010 qualifying, recording wins over Kenya and Tunisia as well as tying Nigeria in the final round of qualifying. They should have little with Comoros, a team they beat in a friendly last year. The winner will advance to Group 7 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 6: EQUATORIAL GUINEA vs. MADAGASCAR
The most evenly matched first-round matchup with these teams checking in at 40 and 42 in the seeding. Equatorial Guinea has had success in 2011 with a pair of shutout wins over Chad and Gambia. Madagascar also impressed in their last game with a narrow 1-0 loss to Asian power Iran. From a competition standpoint, this should be the best Round 1 pairing. The winner will advance to Group 2 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 7: ETHIOPIA vs. SOMALIA
Border matchups are always interesting and this should be no exception. Ethiopia had had moderate success recently but if anything, are entertaining for the fans as their games tend to breed lots goals, both for and against. Somalia will be hindered by both a dearth of talent, and also the inability to contest a game at home due to ongoing strife in the country. While not announced, I imagine Ethiopia will host both legs of the playoff, and advance easily. The winner will be in Group 1 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 8: BURUNDI vs. LESOTHO
2 of the smallest nations in Africa will contest the 8th pairing in Round 1. Lesotho has not played since 2009, but was somewhat successful in that year, posting 1 win, 1 loss and 5 draws, albeit against poor competition. Burundi has struggled of late, althouh did defeat neighbour Rwanda in June 2011. In the end, Burundi should be the victor, as they are a stronger side and have played a number of games in African Cup Qualifying where Lesotho has not. The winner will advance to Group 4 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 9: ERITREA vs. RWANDA
Eritrea has just 1 win since 2009, and that was against bottom-dweller Somalia. They've played Rwanda twice in the past 5 years, Rwanda victorious in both games. Look for Rwanda to win this matchup handily. The winner will advance to Group 8 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 10: D.R. OF CONGO vs. SWAZILAND
D.R. of Congo (not to be confused with Congo) has played 7 games in 2011, with great success posting 5 wins and 2 losses, with a pair of wins against Kenya as well as against Sudan. They are one of the hottest teams in Africa playing a Swailand team without a win since 2009. D.R. of Congo shouldn't have trouble in this pairing. The winner will advance to Group 9 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying.
Pairing 11: CONGO vs. SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
I could try and break down the matchup but that would be a waste. What you need to know: it will have been 8 years since they played a competitive match when Sao Tome and Principe takes the field in November. Congo isn't great, but I like their chances against a team that will likely field no one with senior level international experience. The winner will advance to Group 5 of Round 2 in CAF Qualifying.
Pairing 12: CHAD vs. TANZANIA
Neither team will enter qualifying at their best. Chad has not scored a goal in 3 games in 2011 and has not won since 2008. Tanzania is on a 3 game losing streak but has posted a pair of wins and ties in early 2011. Chad has the ability to pull an upset in this pairing provided they can regain their form in time for mid-November. The winner will advance to Group 3 of Round 2 in CAF qualifing.
Round 2
The 28 highest seeded teams and the 12 Round 1 winners make up the field for Round 2. They were drawn in to 10 groups of 4 at the 2014 preliminary draw. Games are scheduled to be played between June 2012 and September 2013, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: A weak group to start out qualifying with. South Africa is one of the lower top seeds and frankly is rated higher then they should be on the strength of a surprising run at the World Cup and some success against middling African teams since. That said, they don't exactly have formidable competition in this group. Botswana has posted some strong results but the darkhorse threat could come from an Ethiopian team who can score goals and were only eliminated from 2010 qualifying because of a suspension to their federation.
Prediction: South Africa wins but it won't be easy. I think Central African Rep. is the only team without a reasonable chance of advancement from this group.
Group 2
Analysis: A 2-horse race between Cape Verde and Tunisia. Cape Verde has posted some big results in the past year, notably a win over Burkina Faso and a draw with Portugal. They'll face a stiff test in Tunisia who only missed out on a 2010 finals appearance as the result of a shock 1-0 loss to Mozambique on the final day of qualifying. Sierra Leone and the Round 1 winner should not pose a threat.
Prediction: Tunisia comes out on top. Cape Verde has been impressive but so has Tunisia and the Tunisian team has played stiffer competition over the years, and made appearances at the World Cup finals. They're also unlikely to throw away any points against the other two teams in the group, something Cape Verde could very well do at some point in the competition.
Group 3
Analysis: Tough break for everyone in this group to have drawn Ivory Coast, far and away the strongest team in Africa. The Ivorians primary challenge will come from Morocco, a side just on the outside of the top echelon in African football. Biggest concern for the Ivory Coast though is age. They had one of the older rosters in South Africa and will need to replace those players in the next few years in order to keep their spot as top dog in Africa.
Prediction: It really is too bad for Morocco, because in most other groups I think they would stand a fair chance of advancing. In Group C though, it should be Ivory Coast running away with it before the final matchday.
Group 4
Analysis: Ghana is one of the top teams, not just in Africa but in the world, as they showed in South Africa last year, losing to Uruguay in the quarterfinals in a game many thought they were robbed of a victory in. Ghana will be pleased with this group. Zambia is the next highest ranked team at just 17th in the continent and has lost to Libya and Ethiopia of late. Ghana will have to seriously flounder at some point in qualifying if any of the other teams want a shot at advancement.
Prediction: Ghana in a landslide. Taking 18 of 18 possible points would not be surprising in any way.
Group 5
Analysis: One of the realities in African football is that their are clear echelons of teams. In group play, you can generally see before play starts who should win. This group is an exception to that which is nice as an observer. Congo is probably unlikely to win the group but any of the other 3 could take the group if they play to their best. Burkina Faso is the highest rated but hasn't been overly impressive of late, losing to Cape Verde and tying group-mate Gabon. Gabon is a team not to sleep on, they've posted some losses recently but were very successful in 2010 qualifying, and looked for a while that they would knock off African power Cameroon in their final group. And Niger is a team that has demonstrated an ability to compete with the best, defeating Egypt and tying Libya in the past year.
Prediction: I do these predictions because it's just part of writing about sports and people want to see it. I do it as objectively as possible, and it usually results in predicting the top seed. I;m breaking that habit here. I liked Gabon in 2010 qualifying and if they can carry the momentum from that campaign forward, they can take this group. In any case, this will be an interesting one to follow.
Group 6
Analysis: One of two groups that will feature 2 Round 1 teams, the only one of those four that could be a threat would be Kenya. In reality, this is Nigeria's group to lose, with Malawi and Kenya fighting it out for second. Nigeria defeated Kenya earlier this year and also posted a 4-1 victory over Argentina in a friendly.
Prediction: Nigeria. Far and away the best team in an otherwise soft group.
Group 7
Analysis: Egypt is one of the best teams in Africa when it chooses to be, and that will be something to watch in this group. Guinea, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are all top 30 teams in Africa and if Egypt sleeps on any of them, then they will lose.
Prediction: Egypt but I don't have a lot of confidence in that prediction. They are such a roller coaster of a team and you never what you'll get from them. Saving grace for them might be that the rest of the group is so evenly matched that they're likely to split results against each other.
Group 8
Analysis: I'm very curious to see if Algeria can follow-up on its succuessful qualifying campaign in 2010. They were a bit of a surprise qualifier, knocking off Senegal in Round 2 and then needing a playoff to beat Egypt in Round 3. I'm not convinced they can repeat, on the back of losses to Morocco and Central African Republic in recent games, as well as a draw with lowly Luxembourg. If they can regain their form then they should be fine but if not, watch for Benin or Mali to step up and perhaps be the Algeria of the 2014 campaign.
Prediction: This is entirely wide open. Not in the sense that Group 5 was where any team could step up and beat anyone, more in the sense that none of these teams are overly good. It's just be a slugfest of mediocrity. I have to go with Algeria. Not because I'm impressed with them, just because in spite of how poorly they've played, there isn't any one better in the group. Prove me wrong, please gentlemen. Prove me wrong.
Group 9
Analysis: I can guarantee you that the only teams less impressed by this draw then the Round 1 teams that will advance to it, are Cameroon and Libya at having to play each other. Ranked 8th and 12th respectively in Africa it's a brutal draw for both teams, as they will have to face the other twice and the group will likely hinge on those two games.
Prediction: Cameroon might be a slightly better team, but the edge will come from off the field. Because of the ongoing civil war, it is unforeseen whether or not Libya will get to play a home game. It's unfortunate that politics could potentially interfere, but having to face Cameroon in two away games is probably too big a hurdle for Libya.
Group 10
Analysis: I was enamoured with Group 5 because of how open it was and this is no different. Senegal is the highest seed and has posted a lot of wins in the past year but Angola and Uganda are both teams capable of competing at the top level in Africa. Look for Uganda to provide the biggest challenge, they defeated Angola 3-0 last time they met in 2010.
Prediction: Senegal is going to have to sweat against every team it meets in this group. They are the strongest team in the group. But they were also the strongest team in their Round 2 group last campaign, and found themselves on the outside looking in in Round 3.
Summary
One of the things I'm curious to see is how the shorter qualifying campaign effects some teams. With only 10 teams advancing to Round 3, every game in Round 2 will be crucial. There is no saving grace like in 2010 where 8 runners-up made it through, if you don't win your Round 2 group, you're done. That should make for some fascinating drama, especially in the second half of that round. I'll make some Round 3 predictions once the pairings are drawn. Expect most of the teams seeded 1-10 to be there, but who actually makes it to Brazil is an unknown at this point.
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