NORTH AMERICAN (CONCACAF) QUALIFYING
Teams Participating: 35
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 3.5
2010 Finals Participants:
Honduras (4th Group H, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 3 GA)
Mexico (Round of 16 (2nd Group A), 1-2-1, 4 GF, 5 GA)
USA (Round of 16 (1st Group C), 1-1-2, 5 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
The two continental powerhouses USA and Mexico were joined by Honduras to complete the CONCACAF contingent in South Africa. The USA had little difficulty in qualifying for the finals, but the same cannot be said for the other two teams.
Mexico walked all over Belize in a Round 2 pairing and won its first 3 round robin games in Round 3. Losses to Jamaica and Honduras and a draw with Canada put Mexico precariously close to being eliminated, only advancing to the final qualifying round on the strength of a better goal differential then Jamaica. They continued their slide with losses in 3 of their first 4 games of Round 4, culminating in the firing of coach Sven-Goran Eriksson. They put together a string of victories following but it was a harrowing campaign for Mexico.
On the last matchday of Round 4, Honduras found itself on the road in El Salvador needing a victory to have any chance of qualifying. They managed to pick up a late goal to win the match but needed help from the USA against Costa Rica who began the day 2 points ahead of Honduras. Down 2-0 with 10 minutes remaining, the USA made an improbable comeback capped off with an injury time equalizing goal to end their game at 2-2. Tied at 16 points, Honduras qualified over Costa Rica by virtue of a stronger goal differential. Costa Rica subsequently lost to Uruguay in the inter-confederational playoff.
Structure for 2014
CONCACAF has remodeled their qualifying procedure from last campaign. Rounds 3 and 4 are the same format but the advancement procedure has been amended to favour the higher seeded teams. It also is potentially the longest qualifying campaign in terms of games played. It is possible that some teams will end up playing 26 games in qualifying, far more then any other confederation.
In 2010, the procedure was as follows: The 13 highest seeded teams received a bye to Round 2, with the remaining 24 paired off in to 12 pairings playing 2-leg playoffs, with the winners advancing. Round 2 featured another 12 pairings with the highest seeded teams and the Round 1 winners playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners would advance to Round 3. Round 3 consisted of 3 groups of 4 teams playing a double round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing. Round 4 consisted of the 6 remaining teams in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 3 teams qualified for the World Cup with the 4th-place team going to an inter-confederational playoff.
For 2014 the procedure is as follows. Teams seeded 1-6 will received a bye to Round 3, instead of to Round 2. Teams seeded 7-25 will receive a bye to Round 2, and teams seeded 26-35 contested Round 1. In Round 1, seeds 26-35 were drawn in to 5 pairings, playing 2-leg playoffs with the winners advancing to Round 2. In Round 2, the 5 Round 1 winners and seeds 7-25 were drawn in to 6 groups of 4 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. Round 3 will consist of 3 groups of 4 teams, each group consisting of two top 6 seeds and two of the Round 2 group winners. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the top two teams in each group advancing. The 6 teams that advance to Round 4 will play in a single group in a double round-robin, with the top 3 teams qualifying for the World Cup Finals, and the 4th place team advancing to a playoff against the Oceania Champion.
Confused? You aren't alone. Probably the most complicated qualification structure in a confederation where you might as well give USA and Mexico 2 of the 3 guaranteed spots right now.
The Seeding
The seeding was based on the FIFA world ranking in March 2011 and is as follows:
Advanced to Round 3:
1. USA
2. Mexico
3. Honduras
4. Jamaica
5. Costa Rica
6. Cuba
Advanced to Round 2:
7. Panama
8. Canada
9. El Salvador
10. Grenada
11. Trinidad and Tobago
12. Haiti
13. Antigua and Barbuda
14. Guyana
15. Suriname
16. Saint Kitts and Nevis
17. Guatemala
18. Dominica
19. Puerto Rico
20. Barbados
21. Curacao
22. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
23. Cayman Islands
24. Nicaragua
25. Bermuda
Round 1 Participants:
26. Belize
27. Dominican Republic
28. British Virgin Islands
29. Saint Lucia
30. Turks and Caicos Islands
31. Bahamas
32. Aruba
33. U.S. Virgin Islands
34. Anguilla
35. Montserrat
Round 1
Round 1 consisted of the 10 lowest seeded teams in CONCACAF qualifying. Teams were in 5 different pairs, each playing 2-leg playoffs. Games were played in June and July 2011. Results are as follows:
Pairing 1-BELIZE 8-3 MONTSERRAT
Game 1-Belize def. Montserrat 5-2 in Couva, Trinidad
Pairing 2-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 6-0 ANGUILLA
Game 1-Dominican Republic def. Anguilla 2-0 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Game 3-U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 4-1 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
Game 1-U.S. Virgin Islands def. British Virgin Islands 2-0 in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Pairing 4-SAINT LUCIA 6-6 ARUBA
Game 1-Aruba def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Oranjestad, Aruba
Aruba Shots: Jean Luc Bergen GOAL, Raymond Baten GOAL, Rensy Barradas GOAL, Frederick Gomez GOAL, Jelano Cruden MISS
Saint Lucia Shots: Zaine Pierre GOAL, Nathan Justin GOAL, Kurt Frederick GOAL, Kevin Edward GOAL, Pernel Williams GOAL
Saint Lucia won the shootout 5-4 to win the pairing and advance to Round 2.
Pairing 5-BAHAMAS 10-0 TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Game 1-Bahamas def. Turks and Caicos Islands 4-0 in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
Round 2
Round 2 will consist of teams seeded 7-25 and the 5 Round 1 winners. Groups were drawn at the 2014 Preliminary Draw in July. Games will be played from September 2011 to November 2011. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: You're going to see a trend develop here so be forewarned. The competition in CONCACAF drops off pretty quickly after the top 10 or so teams so a lot of these groups have 1 team in particular that is far superior to the others. In this group, it's El Salvador. El Salvador finished 5th in CONCACAF qualifying last campaign, and was the only finalist to play in all 4 rounds. Primary challenge for El Salvador will be Suriname, a team El Salvador defeated 2-0 and 3-0 in the 2010 qualifying campaign.
Prediction: El Salvador should certainly win the group. Whoever is the winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 2
Analysis: Trinidad and Tobago reached the final qualifying group in 2010 qualifying largely on the back of a weak Round 3 group, but nevertheless are the best team hands down in Group B, qualifying for the finals as recently as 2006. They aren't the lock El Salvador are to advance, as they face a difficult test in Guyana, a team they played twice in 2010 resulting in a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw. One of those teams will be the one to emerge from this group.
Prediction: I'd be surprised if Guyana was able to step their game up enough to knock off Trinidad. Their games should be close but I like Trinidad & Tobago in this group. The group winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 3
Analysis: A gift of a draw for Panama, who a lot of observers see as a team with the potential to qualify for the 2014 finals. No real tests for them and they can treat this group as a tune-up for Round 3.
Prediction: Panama. The winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 4
Analysis: Like Panama, Canada will be very pleased with this draw. Only possible threat comes from Puerto Rico who haven't recorded a meaningful result since a 2-2 draw against Honduras in 2008, and that was against a 'B' level Honduran side. Look for Canada to advance with little trouble from this group.
Prediction: Canada. The group winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 5
Analysis: Groups 5 and 6 should be the interesting ones in Round 2, only because they have in my opinion the two weakest top seeds in the round, and the talent gap between the top seed and everyone else is not so great. Grenada is the top seed but is coming off a horrible performance at the 2011 Gold Cup, which included a 4-0 loss to group mate Guatemala. Guatemala also knocked off Belize in a friendly last October.
Prediction: Guatemala was the one team coaches of the top Round 2 seeds said they wanted to avoid with reason. They are a strong team and if they can play as they have in the past year, they should come out on top. Both Grenada and Belize are capable of giving them a fight though. The winner of this group will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 6
Analysis: Haiti is the top seed and like Grenada is a very underwhelming one. Difference between this group and Grenada's is that I'm not sure there's a team in Group 6 capable of challenging Haiti, overrated as they are. Antigua and Barbuda and Curacao may have the potential, but they will both need to be at their best, especially when facing Haiti.
Prediction: I think Haiti gets through, and says a little prayer to the football gods in the process for giving them the group they did, as they'll just squeak past. The winner will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Round 3
The top 6 seeds in qualifying and the 6 group winners from Round 2 will comprised the field for Round 3 in 3 groups of 4. While the Round 2 teams participating are unknown, their spots have already been allocated in each group. Games are scheduled to be played between June and October 2012. Even though I'm reasonably certain which teams will advance from Round 2, I'll hold off on Round 3 Analysis/Predictions until the field is official. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Summary
There's a lot of games to be played, especially considering there's another 6-team group in a double round-robin that I haven't listed here. Watch for trends throughout qualifying, in such a long campaign momentum is critical. When a team is hot, they can go a long way (like El Salvador going from Round 1 to Round 4 last campaign). And when they're down, they can get really down (Mexico losing 6 of 7 games over 2 rounds last campaign).
Personally I think the qualification procedure is far too long given the poor calibre of the continent. You could count the number of teams with a realistic shot of qualifying on your hands in this confederation but you still have to play games and stranger things have happened in sport before...
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 3.5
2010 Finals Participants:
Honduras (4th Group H, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 3 GA)
Mexico (Round of 16 (2nd Group A), 1-2-1, 4 GF, 5 GA)
USA (Round of 16 (1st Group C), 1-1-2, 5 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
The two continental powerhouses USA and Mexico were joined by Honduras to complete the CONCACAF contingent in South Africa. The USA had little difficulty in qualifying for the finals, but the same cannot be said for the other two teams.
Mexico walked all over Belize in a Round 2 pairing and won its first 3 round robin games in Round 3. Losses to Jamaica and Honduras and a draw with Canada put Mexico precariously close to being eliminated, only advancing to the final qualifying round on the strength of a better goal differential then Jamaica. They continued their slide with losses in 3 of their first 4 games of Round 4, culminating in the firing of coach Sven-Goran Eriksson. They put together a string of victories following but it was a harrowing campaign for Mexico.
On the last matchday of Round 4, Honduras found itself on the road in El Salvador needing a victory to have any chance of qualifying. They managed to pick up a late goal to win the match but needed help from the USA against Costa Rica who began the day 2 points ahead of Honduras. Down 2-0 with 10 minutes remaining, the USA made an improbable comeback capped off with an injury time equalizing goal to end their game at 2-2. Tied at 16 points, Honduras qualified over Costa Rica by virtue of a stronger goal differential. Costa Rica subsequently lost to Uruguay in the inter-confederational playoff.
Structure for 2014
CONCACAF has remodeled their qualifying procedure from last campaign. Rounds 3 and 4 are the same format but the advancement procedure has been amended to favour the higher seeded teams. It also is potentially the longest qualifying campaign in terms of games played. It is possible that some teams will end up playing 26 games in qualifying, far more then any other confederation.
In 2010, the procedure was as follows: The 13 highest seeded teams received a bye to Round 2, with the remaining 24 paired off in to 12 pairings playing 2-leg playoffs, with the winners advancing. Round 2 featured another 12 pairings with the highest seeded teams and the Round 1 winners playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners would advance to Round 3. Round 3 consisted of 3 groups of 4 teams playing a double round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing. Round 4 consisted of the 6 remaining teams in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 3 teams qualified for the World Cup with the 4th-place team going to an inter-confederational playoff.
For 2014 the procedure is as follows. Teams seeded 1-6 will received a bye to Round 3, instead of to Round 2. Teams seeded 7-25 will receive a bye to Round 2, and teams seeded 26-35 contested Round 1. In Round 1, seeds 26-35 were drawn in to 5 pairings, playing 2-leg playoffs with the winners advancing to Round 2. In Round 2, the 5 Round 1 winners and seeds 7-25 were drawn in to 6 groups of 4 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. Round 3 will consist of 3 groups of 4 teams, each group consisting of two top 6 seeds and two of the Round 2 group winners. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the top two teams in each group advancing. The 6 teams that advance to Round 4 will play in a single group in a double round-robin, with the top 3 teams qualifying for the World Cup Finals, and the 4th place team advancing to a playoff against the Oceania Champion.
Confused? You aren't alone. Probably the most complicated qualification structure in a confederation where you might as well give USA and Mexico 2 of the 3 guaranteed spots right now.
The Seeding
The seeding was based on the FIFA world ranking in March 2011 and is as follows:
Advanced to Round 3:
1. USA
2. Mexico
3. Honduras
4. Jamaica
5. Costa Rica
6. Cuba
Advanced to Round 2:
7. Panama
8. Canada
9. El Salvador
10. Grenada
11. Trinidad and Tobago
12. Haiti
13. Antigua and Barbuda
14. Guyana
15. Suriname
16. Saint Kitts and Nevis
17. Guatemala
18. Dominica
19. Puerto Rico
20. Barbados
21. Curacao
22. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
23. Cayman Islands
24. Nicaragua
25. Bermuda
Round 1 Participants:
26. Belize
27. Dominican Republic
28. British Virgin Islands
29. Saint Lucia
30. Turks and Caicos Islands
31. Bahamas
32. Aruba
33. U.S. Virgin Islands
34. Anguilla
35. Montserrat
Round 1
Round 1 consisted of the 10 lowest seeded teams in CONCACAF qualifying. Teams were in 5 different pairs, each playing 2-leg playoffs. Games were played in June and July 2011. Results are as follows:
Pairing 1-BELIZE 8-3 MONTSERRAT
Game 1-Belize def. Montserrat 5-2 in Couva, Trinidad
- Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (24',75',83'), Harrison Roches (50'), Elroy Kuylen (53')
- Montserrat Goals-Jaylee Hodgson (44',86')
- Belize Goals-Daniel Jimenez (24'), Deon McCaulay (61'), Luis Mendez (63')
- Montserrat Goals-Jaylee Hodgson (59')
Pairing 2-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 6-0 ANGUILLA
Game 1-Dominican Republic def. Anguilla 2-0 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
- Dominican Republic Goals-Domingo Peralta (8'), Jonathan Fana (42')
- Dominican Republic Goals-Inoel Navarro (18',42'), Jhoan Sanchez (25'), Jonathan Fana (56')
Game 3-U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 4-1 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
Game 1-U.S. Virgin Islands def. British Virgin Islands 2-0 in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Alderman Lesmond (6'), Reid Klopp (52')
- U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Dwayne Thomas (1'), Reid Klopp (90+3')
- British Virgin Islands Goals-Trevor Peters (37')
Pairing 4-SAINT LUCIA 6-6 ARUBA
Game 1-Aruba def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Oranjestad, Aruba
- Aruba Goals-Erik Santos de Gouveia (13'), Maurice Escalona (48'), Frederick Gomez (74'), David Abdul (84')
- Saint Lucia Goals-Kevin Edward (19'), Kurt Frederick (46')
- Saint Lucia Goals-Jamal Joseph (14',20',71'), Kurt Frederick (73')
- Aruba Goals-Frederick Gomez (44',75')
Aruba Shots: Jean Luc Bergen GOAL, Raymond Baten GOAL, Rensy Barradas GOAL, Frederick Gomez GOAL, Jelano Cruden MISS
Saint Lucia Shots: Zaine Pierre GOAL, Nathan Justin GOAL, Kurt Frederick GOAL, Kevin Edward GOAL, Pernel Williams GOAL
Saint Lucia won the shootout 5-4 to win the pairing and advance to Round 2.
Pairing 5-BAHAMAS 10-0 TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Game 1-Bahamas def. Turks and Caicos Islands 4-0 in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
- Bahamas Goals-Nesley Jean (32',60'), Cameron Hepple (34'), Jackner Louis (90+2')
- Bahamas Goals-Woody Gibson (OG 4'), Lesly St. Fleur (17',64',73',86',90')
Round 2
Round 2 will consist of teams seeded 7-25 and the 5 Round 1 winners. Groups were drawn at the 2014 Preliminary Draw in July. Games will be played from September 2011 to November 2011. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: You're going to see a trend develop here so be forewarned. The competition in CONCACAF drops off pretty quickly after the top 10 or so teams so a lot of these groups have 1 team in particular that is far superior to the others. In this group, it's El Salvador. El Salvador finished 5th in CONCACAF qualifying last campaign, and was the only finalist to play in all 4 rounds. Primary challenge for El Salvador will be Suriname, a team El Salvador defeated 2-0 and 3-0 in the 2010 qualifying campaign.
Prediction: El Salvador should certainly win the group. Whoever is the winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 2
Analysis: Trinidad and Tobago reached the final qualifying group in 2010 qualifying largely on the back of a weak Round 3 group, but nevertheless are the best team hands down in Group B, qualifying for the finals as recently as 2006. They aren't the lock El Salvador are to advance, as they face a difficult test in Guyana, a team they played twice in 2010 resulting in a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw. One of those teams will be the one to emerge from this group.
Prediction: I'd be surprised if Guyana was able to step their game up enough to knock off Trinidad. Their games should be close but I like Trinidad & Tobago in this group. The group winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 3
Analysis: A gift of a draw for Panama, who a lot of observers see as a team with the potential to qualify for the 2014 finals. No real tests for them and they can treat this group as a tune-up for Round 3.
Prediction: Panama. The winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 4
Analysis: Like Panama, Canada will be very pleased with this draw. Only possible threat comes from Puerto Rico who haven't recorded a meaningful result since a 2-2 draw against Honduras in 2008, and that was against a 'B' level Honduran side. Look for Canada to advance with little trouble from this group.
Prediction: Canada. The group winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 5
Analysis: Groups 5 and 6 should be the interesting ones in Round 2, only because they have in my opinion the two weakest top seeds in the round, and the talent gap between the top seed and everyone else is not so great. Grenada is the top seed but is coming off a horrible performance at the 2011 Gold Cup, which included a 4-0 loss to group mate Guatemala. Guatemala also knocked off Belize in a friendly last October.
Prediction: Guatemala was the one team coaches of the top Round 2 seeds said they wanted to avoid with reason. They are a strong team and if they can play as they have in the past year, they should come out on top. Both Grenada and Belize are capable of giving them a fight though. The winner of this group will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 6
Analysis: Haiti is the top seed and like Grenada is a very underwhelming one. Difference between this group and Grenada's is that I'm not sure there's a team in Group 6 capable of challenging Haiti, overrated as they are. Antigua and Barbuda and Curacao may have the potential, but they will both need to be at their best, especially when facing Haiti.
Prediction: I think Haiti gets through, and says a little prayer to the football gods in the process for giving them the group they did, as they'll just squeak past. The winner will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Round 3
The top 6 seeds in qualifying and the 6 group winners from Round 2 will comprised the field for Round 3 in 3 groups of 4. While the Round 2 teams participating are unknown, their spots have already been allocated in each group. Games are scheduled to be played between June and October 2012. Even though I'm reasonably certain which teams will advance from Round 2, I'll hold off on Round 3 Analysis/Predictions until the field is official. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Summary
There's a lot of games to be played, especially considering there's another 6-team group in a double round-robin that I haven't listed here. Watch for trends throughout qualifying, in such a long campaign momentum is critical. When a team is hot, they can go a long way (like El Salvador going from Round 1 to Round 4 last campaign). And when they're down, they can get really down (Mexico losing 6 of 7 games over 2 rounds last campaign).
Personally I think the qualification procedure is far too long given the poor calibre of the continent. You could count the number of teams with a realistic shot of qualifying on your hands in this confederation but you still have to play games and stranger things have happened in sport before...
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