EUROPE (UEFA) QUALIFYING
Teams Participating: 53
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 13
2010 Finals Participants:
Denmark (3rd Group E, 1-2-0, 3 GF, 6 GA)
England (Round of 16 (2nd Group C), 1-1-2, 3 GF, 5 GA)
France (4th Group A, 0-2-1, 1 GF, 4 GA)
Germany (3rd Place (1st Group D), 5-2-0, 16 GF, 5 GA)
Greece (3rd Group B, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 5 GA)
Italy (4th Group F, 0-1-2, 4 GF, 5 GA)
Netherlands (2nd Place (1st Group E), 6-1-0, 12 GF, 6 GA)
Portugal (Round of 16 (2nd Group G), 1-1-2, 7 GF, 1 GA)
Serbia (4th Group D, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 3 GA)
Slovakia (Round of 16 (2nd Group F), 1-2-1, 5 GF, 7 GA)
Slovenia (3rd Group C, 1-1-1, 3 GF, 3 GA)
Spain (Champion (1st Group H), 6-1-0, 8 GF, 2 GA)
Switzerland (3rd Group H, 1-1-1, 1 GF, 1 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
Europe is largely considered to be the crown jewel of world football, providing the best competition and 2010 was no different. UEFA is the largest confederation with 53 members, and the calibre is reflected in the spot allocation for UEFA. 13 of 32 World Cup spots, almost half of the entire finals field is European. That calibre was also reflected on the podium in 2010, as the top 3 teams all came from Europe.
Because of the high calibre of football, Europe is a continent which always features some surprises regarding which teams were excluded. Ireland, Russia, Sweden, Czech Republic, Turkey, Croatia and Norway were just some of the names of teams that failed to qualify in 2010, a testament to the true strength of UEFA.
The thing most will remember about 2010 European qualifying came from the playoff round and it was the epic playoff matchup between France and Ireland. After dropping the first leg to France 1-0 at home, Ireland had to beat France on the road to have a shot at qualifying. A 1-0 score at the end of regulation sent the game to extra time. In extra time a blatant hand ball by French forward Thierry Henry went unseen by the referee and let to a French goal, which would seal their place in the tournament. Fans went as far as petitioning FIFA to allow Ireland a spot in South Africa but it was to no avail. This goal is one of the driving forces behind the push for goal line referees in international competition.
Structure for 2014
The qualifying structure is the exact same for 2014 as it was for 2010. The teams were seeded and drawn in to 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin with the group winners automatically qualifying for the World Cup. The 8 best 2nd-place finishers will advance to Round 2 and play a 2-leg playoff against one of the other opponents. The winners of those 4 2-leg playoffs will also qualify for the World Cup.
Because the 2nd-place finisher from the 5-team group will have played two fewer games then the others, results against 6th-place teams in the other 8 groups will be discounted in determining the best 2nd-place teams. That way, all 2nd-place teams are being judged by their performance against the top 5 in their respective groups.
The Seeding
Teams were seeded based on their world ranking at the time of the preliminary draw. They were separated in to 6 pots based on their seeding, with only 1 team per pot in any given group. The seeding was as follows:
Pot A:
1. Spain
2. Netherlands
3. Germany
4. England
5. Portugal
6. Italy
7. Croatia
8. Norway
9. Greece
Pot B:
10. France
11. Montenegro
12. Russia
13. Sweden
14. Denmark
15. Slovenia
16. Turkey
17. Serbia
18. Slovakia
Pot C:
19. Switzerland
20. Israel
21. Ireland
22. Belgium
23. Czech Republic
24. Bosnia and Herzegovina
25. Belarus
26. Ukraine
27. Hungary
Pot D:
28. Bulgaria
29. Romania
30. Georgia
31. Lithuania
32. Albania
33. Scotland
34. Northern Ireland
35. Austria
36. Poland
Pot E:
37. Armenia
38. Finland
39. Estonia
40. Cyprus
41. Latvia
42. Moldova
43. Macedonia
44. Azerbaijan
45. Faroe Islands
Pot F:
46. Wales
47. Liechtenstein
48. Iceland
49. Kazakhstan
50. Luxembourg
51. Malta
52. Andorra
53. San Marino
Round 1
Round 1 features 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Games will be played from August 2012 through October 2013. All teams will participate. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: First thing that jumps out about this group is that there are some very interesting regional matchups in the British Isles (Scotland, Wales) and in the Balkans (Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia). This group should be open for the taking; Croatia is the top seed but is one of two teams from Pot A that was not a 2010 Finals participant. The only member of this group that was in South Africa is Serbia, and those two countries are the likely favourites to finish in the top 2. Don't sleep on Belgium or Scotland though particularly Belgium. Both have had a tough go of it in the past decade but have the talent to play with some of the top teams in Europe. This is a fairly soft group and any one of those teams could pull a surprise.
Prediction: I like Serbia to win the group. I don't know if they're necessarily more talented then Croatia are but they're more cohesive as a team and have that experience of being in the last World Cup. A raucous home crowd doesn't hurt them either (except when they force matches to be abandoned resulting in a Serbia loss like happened in Euro 2012 qualifying). Second-place should go to Croatia. I don't know if Belgium or Scotland (or anyone else for that matter) will be able to grab enough points to unseat them.
Group 2
Analysis: The first of several groups featuring a pair of 2010 Finals participants. Barring an upset, either Italy or Denmark should take this group and secure another Finals berth. On paper, Italy would be favoured but Denmark has continually overachieved in these qualifying campaigns and will pose a challenge for Italy (they topped favoured Portugal in Group 1 in 2010 qualifying). Also in the mix for the top two spots will be Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Bulgaria has fallen on some hard times and could struggle but the Czechs were not so long ago a major force in European football. At the top of their game, they can defeat anyone in this group.
Prediction: I like Denmark but Italy is in a rhythm right now. They've lost just 1 game in the past year and just defeated world champion Spain in a friendly. If they can continue that roll, they'll be tough to top in the group. It will be a battle for 2nd place, fought primarily between Denmark and Czech Republic. They played last November resulting in a scoreless draw so there isn't much between the two teams. Bulgaria might try and sneak in the mix if possible as well, but I'll stick with Denmark in 2nd for now.
Group 3
Analysis: There were three teams in Pot A that no one wanted to draw in qualifying. Germany is the first. Germany has been nearly unstoppable in the past decade and have been cleaning up in their qualifying groups. This will be no exception, they will take 1st in this group. The real battle will be for second place and Sweden and Ireland look like the prime candidates to challenge for it. In any other group, both would be contenders for the top spot and their games against each other will be crucial in deciding who can grab the playoff spot in this group.
Prediction: Germany in 1st is a given. I'm torn on second place though. At their best, I think Sweden is a better team, but I think Ireland is more consistent from game to game. I'm trusting that Sweden will have a strong qualifying run and will take second by the narrowest of margins.
Group 4
Analysis: The second member of that trio is Netherlands who were perfect in 2010 qualifying, and have also been perfect in Euro 2012 qualifying. They will not be challenged for first place in this group. There's a massive drop in talent behind Netherlands, as this is probably the weakest qualifying group in Europe this campaign. Turkey checks in at an overrated 24th in the world, and then you go all the way down to 47th in the world to find Hungary, barely ahead of Romania. If either Hungary or Romania step up they can challenge Turkey for second place but this is a very poor group from Turkey on downward.
Prediction: Netherlands and Turkey in that order. Should be a sizeable gap between 2nd and 3rd place.
Group 5
Analysis: If you've read all my previews, you know I'm a fan of groups where there will be competition instead of a dominant team. This is that kind of group. It features two teams from 2010 Finals (Slovenia, Switzerland), neither of which is the top seed in the group (Norway). What's likely to result is a 3-way battle for 1 automatic spot and 1 playoff spot and I'm looking forward to it. Albania might be able to put up enough fight to stay in contention but keep an eye on those three teams during qualifying, as they're the ones that will be there until the end.
Prediction: Momentum is important in soccer and the team with the least momentum in my opinion is Slovenia. I think if any team is going to fall off, it will be them leaving Switzerland and Norway at the top, I believe in that order. Make no mistake though, this group will be a dogfight, and probably the last one to be settled.
Group 6
Analysis: Portugal or Russia, who do you like to win it? That's essentially what Group 6 boils down to. Israel and Northern Ireland are the 3rd and 4th seeds in the group but neither will really be able to contend with the two top dogs in the group.
Prediction: Hard to predict the order in which Russia and Portugal will finish in because both teams are known to take games off. If one team can show up in both games between the two, they'll take the group, with the other finishing second. My guess; Russia 1st, Portugal 2nd. Don't be surprised to see a younger Russian squad through qualifying. They'll be wanting to gain experience ahead of 2018 when they'll be hosting the World Cup.
Group 7
Analysis: Forget about the L's in this group, this is going to be a battle of 3 teams with Greece, Slovakia and Bosnia/Herzegovina. Slovakia and Bosnia are two teams on the upswing, Slovakia having appeared at the 2010 Finals and Bosnia coming surprisingly close to qualifying, only to be thwarted in a playoff with Portugal. Greece is the top seed and no team in the world perhaps has overachieved as much as Greece has in the past decade. No matter what team they put on the field, opponents have to be wary as Greece has consistently won games when people counted them out.
Prediction: I'm admittedly surprised at how well Greece does because frankly I don't their team is actually that good. I've learned not to bet against them however and I expect them to win this group. Slovakia and Bosnia should be fighting tooth and nail for the playoff spot but I think Slovakia has a bit more big game experience then Bosnia and I think they'll grab second by a very slight margin.
Group 8
Analysis: About as good a draw as England could have hoped for. They're far and away the top team in the group but have a habit of making things difficult on themselves in qualifying. The other 3 teams in contention for the top 2 are Ukraine and Poland (co-hosts of Euro 2012) and Montenegro, the surprise 2nd seed in this group who are currently tied with England in their Euro qualifying group.
Prediction: England won't be perfect but they'll grab enough points and benefit from the Montenegro/Poland/Ukraine matchups splitting points amongst themselves to win the group. I like Ukraine in 2nd, they're underrated in the 3rd pot in my opinion and should be able to knock off Montenegro and Poland for 2nd place. England in 1st and Ukraine in 2nd would be the same result as their 2010 qualifying group. Ukraine went on to lose to Greece in a playoff that campaign.
Group 9
Analysis: Oddly enough, the third member of that trio of teams I mentioned everyone wanted to avoid from Pot A, was drawn with the team from Pot B everyone wanted to avoid. If you only watch 2 games of the 800+ in qualifying, make it the 2 games between Spain and France. Spain is the defending World and European champion, and were unfortunate enough to draw France, one of the best teams in the world who only fell to Pot B because of a string of poor results in 2010. Those poor results are behind them and this will be a war for first-place in this group. Also feel free to pity Belarus, Finland and Georgia. They could not hand-pick a worse draw for themselves.
Prediction: Spain is a slightly better team then France, even when they're at their best. Spain should win, with France second, but it will be really fun to watch them go at it twice in qualifying.
Summary
One thing I need to stress about my predictions is that games will not start until over a year from now, once Euro 2012 has finished. A lot of things can and will happen between now and then. Great storylines will emerge as qualifying happens so make sure to stay tuned to UEFA qualifying, both for great football, but also some great excitement.
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 13
2010 Finals Participants:
Denmark (3rd Group E, 1-2-0, 3 GF, 6 GA)
England (Round of 16 (2nd Group C), 1-1-2, 3 GF, 5 GA)
France (4th Group A, 0-2-1, 1 GF, 4 GA)
Germany (3rd Place (1st Group D), 5-2-0, 16 GF, 5 GA)
Greece (3rd Group B, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 5 GA)
Italy (4th Group F, 0-1-2, 4 GF, 5 GA)
Netherlands (2nd Place (1st Group E), 6-1-0, 12 GF, 6 GA)
Portugal (Round of 16 (2nd Group G), 1-1-2, 7 GF, 1 GA)
Serbia (4th Group D, 1-2-0, 2 GF, 3 GA)
Slovakia (Round of 16 (2nd Group F), 1-2-1, 5 GF, 7 GA)
Slovenia (3rd Group C, 1-1-1, 3 GF, 3 GA)
Spain (Champion (1st Group H), 6-1-0, 8 GF, 2 GA)
Switzerland (3rd Group H, 1-1-1, 1 GF, 1 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
Europe is largely considered to be the crown jewel of world football, providing the best competition and 2010 was no different. UEFA is the largest confederation with 53 members, and the calibre is reflected in the spot allocation for UEFA. 13 of 32 World Cup spots, almost half of the entire finals field is European. That calibre was also reflected on the podium in 2010, as the top 3 teams all came from Europe.
Because of the high calibre of football, Europe is a continent which always features some surprises regarding which teams were excluded. Ireland, Russia, Sweden, Czech Republic, Turkey, Croatia and Norway were just some of the names of teams that failed to qualify in 2010, a testament to the true strength of UEFA.
The thing most will remember about 2010 European qualifying came from the playoff round and it was the epic playoff matchup between France and Ireland. After dropping the first leg to France 1-0 at home, Ireland had to beat France on the road to have a shot at qualifying. A 1-0 score at the end of regulation sent the game to extra time. In extra time a blatant hand ball by French forward Thierry Henry went unseen by the referee and let to a French goal, which would seal their place in the tournament. Fans went as far as petitioning FIFA to allow Ireland a spot in South Africa but it was to no avail. This goal is one of the driving forces behind the push for goal line referees in international competition.
Structure for 2014
The qualifying structure is the exact same for 2014 as it was for 2010. The teams were seeded and drawn in to 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin with the group winners automatically qualifying for the World Cup. The 8 best 2nd-place finishers will advance to Round 2 and play a 2-leg playoff against one of the other opponents. The winners of those 4 2-leg playoffs will also qualify for the World Cup.
Because the 2nd-place finisher from the 5-team group will have played two fewer games then the others, results against 6th-place teams in the other 8 groups will be discounted in determining the best 2nd-place teams. That way, all 2nd-place teams are being judged by their performance against the top 5 in their respective groups.
The Seeding
Teams were seeded based on their world ranking at the time of the preliminary draw. They were separated in to 6 pots based on their seeding, with only 1 team per pot in any given group. The seeding was as follows:
Pot A:
1. Spain
2. Netherlands
3. Germany
4. England
5. Portugal
6. Italy
7. Croatia
8. Norway
9. Greece
Pot B:
10. France
11. Montenegro
12. Russia
13. Sweden
14. Denmark
15. Slovenia
16. Turkey
17. Serbia
18. Slovakia
Pot C:
19. Switzerland
20. Israel
21. Ireland
22. Belgium
23. Czech Republic
24. Bosnia and Herzegovina
25. Belarus
26. Ukraine
27. Hungary
Pot D:
28. Bulgaria
29. Romania
30. Georgia
31. Lithuania
32. Albania
33. Scotland
34. Northern Ireland
35. Austria
36. Poland
Pot E:
37. Armenia
38. Finland
39. Estonia
40. Cyprus
41. Latvia
42. Moldova
43. Macedonia
44. Azerbaijan
45. Faroe Islands
Pot F:
46. Wales
47. Liechtenstein
48. Iceland
49. Kazakhstan
50. Luxembourg
51. Malta
52. Andorra
53. San Marino
Round 1
Round 1 features 8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams. Games will be played from August 2012 through October 2013. All teams will participate. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: First thing that jumps out about this group is that there are some very interesting regional matchups in the British Isles (Scotland, Wales) and in the Balkans (Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia). This group should be open for the taking; Croatia is the top seed but is one of two teams from Pot A that was not a 2010 Finals participant. The only member of this group that was in South Africa is Serbia, and those two countries are the likely favourites to finish in the top 2. Don't sleep on Belgium or Scotland though particularly Belgium. Both have had a tough go of it in the past decade but have the talent to play with some of the top teams in Europe. This is a fairly soft group and any one of those teams could pull a surprise.
Prediction: I like Serbia to win the group. I don't know if they're necessarily more talented then Croatia are but they're more cohesive as a team and have that experience of being in the last World Cup. A raucous home crowd doesn't hurt them either (except when they force matches to be abandoned resulting in a Serbia loss like happened in Euro 2012 qualifying). Second-place should go to Croatia. I don't know if Belgium or Scotland (or anyone else for that matter) will be able to grab enough points to unseat them.
Group 2
Analysis: The first of several groups featuring a pair of 2010 Finals participants. Barring an upset, either Italy or Denmark should take this group and secure another Finals berth. On paper, Italy would be favoured but Denmark has continually overachieved in these qualifying campaigns and will pose a challenge for Italy (they topped favoured Portugal in Group 1 in 2010 qualifying). Also in the mix for the top two spots will be Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Bulgaria has fallen on some hard times and could struggle but the Czechs were not so long ago a major force in European football. At the top of their game, they can defeat anyone in this group.
Prediction: I like Denmark but Italy is in a rhythm right now. They've lost just 1 game in the past year and just defeated world champion Spain in a friendly. If they can continue that roll, they'll be tough to top in the group. It will be a battle for 2nd place, fought primarily between Denmark and Czech Republic. They played last November resulting in a scoreless draw so there isn't much between the two teams. Bulgaria might try and sneak in the mix if possible as well, but I'll stick with Denmark in 2nd for now.
Group 3
Analysis: There were three teams in Pot A that no one wanted to draw in qualifying. Germany is the first. Germany has been nearly unstoppable in the past decade and have been cleaning up in their qualifying groups. This will be no exception, they will take 1st in this group. The real battle will be for second place and Sweden and Ireland look like the prime candidates to challenge for it. In any other group, both would be contenders for the top spot and their games against each other will be crucial in deciding who can grab the playoff spot in this group.
Prediction: Germany in 1st is a given. I'm torn on second place though. At their best, I think Sweden is a better team, but I think Ireland is more consistent from game to game. I'm trusting that Sweden will have a strong qualifying run and will take second by the narrowest of margins.
Group 4
Analysis: The second member of that trio is Netherlands who were perfect in 2010 qualifying, and have also been perfect in Euro 2012 qualifying. They will not be challenged for first place in this group. There's a massive drop in talent behind Netherlands, as this is probably the weakest qualifying group in Europe this campaign. Turkey checks in at an overrated 24th in the world, and then you go all the way down to 47th in the world to find Hungary, barely ahead of Romania. If either Hungary or Romania step up they can challenge Turkey for second place but this is a very poor group from Turkey on downward.
Prediction: Netherlands and Turkey in that order. Should be a sizeable gap between 2nd and 3rd place.
Group 5
Analysis: If you've read all my previews, you know I'm a fan of groups where there will be competition instead of a dominant team. This is that kind of group. It features two teams from 2010 Finals (Slovenia, Switzerland), neither of which is the top seed in the group (Norway). What's likely to result is a 3-way battle for 1 automatic spot and 1 playoff spot and I'm looking forward to it. Albania might be able to put up enough fight to stay in contention but keep an eye on those three teams during qualifying, as they're the ones that will be there until the end.
Prediction: Momentum is important in soccer and the team with the least momentum in my opinion is Slovenia. I think if any team is going to fall off, it will be them leaving Switzerland and Norway at the top, I believe in that order. Make no mistake though, this group will be a dogfight, and probably the last one to be settled.
Group 6
Analysis: Portugal or Russia, who do you like to win it? That's essentially what Group 6 boils down to. Israel and Northern Ireland are the 3rd and 4th seeds in the group but neither will really be able to contend with the two top dogs in the group.
Prediction: Hard to predict the order in which Russia and Portugal will finish in because both teams are known to take games off. If one team can show up in both games between the two, they'll take the group, with the other finishing second. My guess; Russia 1st, Portugal 2nd. Don't be surprised to see a younger Russian squad through qualifying. They'll be wanting to gain experience ahead of 2018 when they'll be hosting the World Cup.
Group 7
Analysis: Forget about the L's in this group, this is going to be a battle of 3 teams with Greece, Slovakia and Bosnia/Herzegovina. Slovakia and Bosnia are two teams on the upswing, Slovakia having appeared at the 2010 Finals and Bosnia coming surprisingly close to qualifying, only to be thwarted in a playoff with Portugal. Greece is the top seed and no team in the world perhaps has overachieved as much as Greece has in the past decade. No matter what team they put on the field, opponents have to be wary as Greece has consistently won games when people counted them out.
Prediction: I'm admittedly surprised at how well Greece does because frankly I don't their team is actually that good. I've learned not to bet against them however and I expect them to win this group. Slovakia and Bosnia should be fighting tooth and nail for the playoff spot but I think Slovakia has a bit more big game experience then Bosnia and I think they'll grab second by a very slight margin.
Group 8
Analysis: About as good a draw as England could have hoped for. They're far and away the top team in the group but have a habit of making things difficult on themselves in qualifying. The other 3 teams in contention for the top 2 are Ukraine and Poland (co-hosts of Euro 2012) and Montenegro, the surprise 2nd seed in this group who are currently tied with England in their Euro qualifying group.
Prediction: England won't be perfect but they'll grab enough points and benefit from the Montenegro/Poland/Ukraine matchups splitting points amongst themselves to win the group. I like Ukraine in 2nd, they're underrated in the 3rd pot in my opinion and should be able to knock off Montenegro and Poland for 2nd place. England in 1st and Ukraine in 2nd would be the same result as their 2010 qualifying group. Ukraine went on to lose to Greece in a playoff that campaign.
Group 9
Analysis: Oddly enough, the third member of that trio of teams I mentioned everyone wanted to avoid from Pot A, was drawn with the team from Pot B everyone wanted to avoid. If you only watch 2 games of the 800+ in qualifying, make it the 2 games between Spain and France. Spain is the defending World and European champion, and were unfortunate enough to draw France, one of the best teams in the world who only fell to Pot B because of a string of poor results in 2010. Those poor results are behind them and this will be a war for first-place in this group. Also feel free to pity Belarus, Finland and Georgia. They could not hand-pick a worse draw for themselves.
Prediction: Spain is a slightly better team then France, even when they're at their best. Spain should win, with France second, but it will be really fun to watch them go at it twice in qualifying.
Summary
One thing I need to stress about my predictions is that games will not start until over a year from now, once Euro 2012 has finished. A lot of things can and will happen between now and then. Great storylines will emerge as qualifying happens so make sure to stay tuned to UEFA qualifying, both for great football, but also some great excitement.
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