SOUTH AMERICA (CONMEBOL) QUALIFYING
Teams Participating: 9
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 5.5 (1 spot allocated to Brazil as host)
2010 Finals Participants:
Argentina (Quarterfinals (1st Group B), 4-1-0, 10 GF, 6 GA)
Brazil (Quarterfinals (1st Group G), 3-1-1, 9 GF, 4 GA)
Chile (Round of 16 (2nd Group H), 2-2-0, 3 GF, 5 GA)
Paraguay (Quarterfinals (1st Group F), 1-1-3, 3 GF, 2 GA)
Uruguay (4th Place (1st Group A), 3-2-2, 11 GF, 8 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
For much of the 2010 Finals, it appeared as if South America would dominate it. All 5 teams advanced to the knockout stages, 4 of the teams by winning their group. Yet only Uruguay was left standing in the semifinals and finished in fourth place. Still it was a remarkably successful performance by the confederation with the fewest members in FIFA.
The big story in qualifying for 2010 was not in who would qualify, but in who might not, specifically would global powerhouse Argentina make it to South Africa. Argentina lost 3 straight games down the homestretch of qualifying and only last second victories over Peru and Uruguay saw them through to the Finals. Otherwise the only surprise would be that Uruguay was the most successful team in the Finals despite finishing 5th in qualifying and requiring a playoff win over Costa Rica just to be in South Africa.
Structure for 2014
The simplest of all confederations. Like 2010, all 9 teams (Brazil is already qualified as host and will not take part in qualifying) will be placed in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 4 teams will qualify for the World Cup. The 5th place team will advance to an inter-confederational playoff against the 5th-placed Asian team. The winner of that playoff will also qualify.
One thing is certain, South America will be well represented on their home continent. At least 50% of the CONMEBOL member nations will qualify for the finals.
Qualifying Round
Analysis: Nothing is ever a lock in CONMEBOL qualifying (Just ask Argentina). It is unlike any other qualifying format. You will play every one and road games can be some of the most hostile environments imaginable between fans and altitude (Bolivia regularly plays home games at 10,000+ feet ASL). Other formats, especially the ones with 2-leg playoffs for rounds are sprints, this is a marathon. 16 games for each team, 8 home and 8 away. Each team will lose games along the way, the key is to just grind out as many points as possible and hope for the best.
4 of these teams will qualify automatically and 2 jump out immediately as being at the top; Argentina and Uruguay. Despite Argentina's struggles in making it to South Africa, they remain one of the best teams in the world, and without arch-rival Brazil in qualifying, they should face a slightly easier road. Uruguay was the most successful CONMEBOL team last World Cup and just won the 2011 Copa America. They might be the best team on the continent right now (Brazil and Argentina included) and like poised for a strong qualifying run.
As for who grabs the other spots, we're going to have to wait and see. Things can change in a hurry and in a confederation where the qualifying round will span two years in length, it's very hard to separate who will be be strongest now and in the future. Chile and Paraguay should be in contention to repeat their Finals appearances, but don't sleep on either Ecuador or Peru. Ecuador narrowly missed out on 5th place in last qualifying campaign and Peru has done a complete 180 since then, finishing 3rd at the Copa America. Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia are the likely bottom-dwellers right now but like I said, this is a strange group where anything can happen. Odds are that a year from now, the standings will look nothing like any of us expect them to.
Prediction: Argentina, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay to qualify automatically. Paraguay to the playoff. I'll be patting myself on the back in two years if this is even remotely close. Fun group to watch.
Summary
If you're a fan of entertaining football, CONMEBOL qualifying is for you. Anything can happen and usually does. Brazil's exclusion from qualifying may hurt the overall allure of the campaign but it is still arguably the most competitive confederation in the world. One thing to keep an eye on early in qualfiying as to who might do well is any team that can have some success on the road. Home field advantage is a huge premium in South American football and picking up points in road games is the mark of a very strong team.
[ed.] I'll post Europe later today since this section is so short. North America tomorrow then on to previews in the next couple weeks for the September games in Asia and North America.
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 5.5 (1 spot allocated to Brazil as host)
2010 Finals Participants:
Argentina (Quarterfinals (1st Group B), 4-1-0, 10 GF, 6 GA)
Brazil (Quarterfinals (1st Group G), 3-1-1, 9 GF, 4 GA)
Chile (Round of 16 (2nd Group H), 2-2-0, 3 GF, 5 GA)
Paraguay (Quarterfinals (1st Group F), 1-1-3, 3 GF, 2 GA)
Uruguay (4th Place (1st Group A), 3-2-2, 11 GF, 8 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
For much of the 2010 Finals, it appeared as if South America would dominate it. All 5 teams advanced to the knockout stages, 4 of the teams by winning their group. Yet only Uruguay was left standing in the semifinals and finished in fourth place. Still it was a remarkably successful performance by the confederation with the fewest members in FIFA.
The big story in qualifying for 2010 was not in who would qualify, but in who might not, specifically would global powerhouse Argentina make it to South Africa. Argentina lost 3 straight games down the homestretch of qualifying and only last second victories over Peru and Uruguay saw them through to the Finals. Otherwise the only surprise would be that Uruguay was the most successful team in the Finals despite finishing 5th in qualifying and requiring a playoff win over Costa Rica just to be in South Africa.
Structure for 2014
The simplest of all confederations. Like 2010, all 9 teams (Brazil is already qualified as host and will not take part in qualifying) will be placed in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 4 teams will qualify for the World Cup. The 5th place team will advance to an inter-confederational playoff against the 5th-placed Asian team. The winner of that playoff will also qualify.
One thing is certain, South America will be well represented on their home continent. At least 50% of the CONMEBOL member nations will qualify for the finals.
Qualifying Round
Analysis: Nothing is ever a lock in CONMEBOL qualifying (Just ask Argentina). It is unlike any other qualifying format. You will play every one and road games can be some of the most hostile environments imaginable between fans and altitude (Bolivia regularly plays home games at 10,000+ feet ASL). Other formats, especially the ones with 2-leg playoffs for rounds are sprints, this is a marathon. 16 games for each team, 8 home and 8 away. Each team will lose games along the way, the key is to just grind out as many points as possible and hope for the best.
4 of these teams will qualify automatically and 2 jump out immediately as being at the top; Argentina and Uruguay. Despite Argentina's struggles in making it to South Africa, they remain one of the best teams in the world, and without arch-rival Brazil in qualifying, they should face a slightly easier road. Uruguay was the most successful CONMEBOL team last World Cup and just won the 2011 Copa America. They might be the best team on the continent right now (Brazil and Argentina included) and like poised for a strong qualifying run.
As for who grabs the other spots, we're going to have to wait and see. Things can change in a hurry and in a confederation where the qualifying round will span two years in length, it's very hard to separate who will be be strongest now and in the future. Chile and Paraguay should be in contention to repeat their Finals appearances, but don't sleep on either Ecuador or Peru. Ecuador narrowly missed out on 5th place in last qualifying campaign and Peru has done a complete 180 since then, finishing 3rd at the Copa America. Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia are the likely bottom-dwellers right now but like I said, this is a strange group where anything can happen. Odds are that a year from now, the standings will look nothing like any of us expect them to.
Prediction: Argentina, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay to qualify automatically. Paraguay to the playoff. I'll be patting myself on the back in two years if this is even remotely close. Fun group to watch.
Summary
If you're a fan of entertaining football, CONMEBOL qualifying is for you. Anything can happen and usually does. Brazil's exclusion from qualifying may hurt the overall allure of the campaign but it is still arguably the most competitive confederation in the world. One thing to keep an eye on early in qualfiying as to who might do well is any team that can have some success on the road. Home field advantage is a huge premium in South American football and picking up points in road games is the mark of a very strong team.
[ed.] I'll post Europe later today since this section is so short. North America tomorrow then on to previews in the next couple weeks for the September games in Asia and North America.
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