Part 1 here.
Pairing 7-Ethiopia vs. Somalia
World Ranking
Ethiopia: 136th (37th Africa)
Somalia: 192nd (50th Africa)
Past International Records
Ethiopia 2011 to date: 1-3-2
Somalia 2011 to date: 0-0-0
Ethiopia 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-2-0*
Somalia 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-0
Head-to-Head Record: 3-1-0 Ethiopia
*-Ethiopia was banned from qualifying after 4 games when the Ethiopian Football Federation was suspended by FIFA.
Team Glimpses
Ethiopia: Unlike their opponent this round, Ethiopia has prospered of late, posting respectable results against some of Africa's top teams and bouncing back well from a 2010 qualifying campaign which ended in their dismissal by FIFA for governmental interference. Which was unfortunate because Ethiopia had been a position where they were contending to advance to Round 3 from a tough group with Morocco and Rwanda. All those problems have been taken care of though and Ethiopia is slowly but steadily building itself in to a contender in Africa.
Somalia: An unfortunate victim of politics impacting sport. Because Somalia has lacked functioning government and infrastructure for an entire generation now, the national team faces all sorts of challenges with training and funding. Somalia is unable to host matches because of the civil war which is still ongoing and as a result finds itself consistently near the bottom of the FIFA world rankings. Last Somalia win came against Tanzania in January 2009. They've since lost 7 games in a row, scoring just one goal in that stretch.
Games
Game 1
Ethiopia at Somalia
November 12, 2011
Time: 7:45 am EST
Location: Stade National Gouled, Djibouti, Djibouti*
Game 2
Somalia at Ethiopia
November 16, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
*-Due to security concerns in Somalia, Somalia will play their home game in Djibouti.
Ethiopia is a much stronger side and essentially gets 2 home games with Somalia's home leg being played in Djibouti. Somalia might stick around a bit but Ethiopia will be advancing from this pairing. Winner will be advancing to Group 1 in Round 2 to face Botswana, Central African Republic and South Africa.
Pairing 8-Burundi vs. Lesotho
World Ranking
Burundi: 141st (39th Africa)
Lesotho: 162nd (42nd Africa)
Past International Records
Burundi 2011 to date: 1-4-2
Lesotho 2011 to date: 1-1-2
Burundi 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-0
Lesotho 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-6-0
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Burundi: One of the smallest nations in Africa will meet one of the other tiny nations in this matchup. Burundi posted 3 losses in January, but in the games since has defeated Rwanda, tied Benin and narrowly lost to Ivory Coast, the best team in Africa. Burundi won't be a threat to advance past Round 2 but that mini-run of success could be enough to carry them past Lesotho. A former Belgian colony, Burundi has a number of players competing professionally in Belgium, some in the Belgian Premier League.
Lesotho: Landlocked by South Africa, Lesotho is one of the weakest teams in Africa who have recently run in to a string of positive results. Playing only 4 games so far this year, Lesotho looked near rock-bottom losing to and tying Swaziland at home in August. Rather then folding though, they've since come back to defeat Botswana and tie Namibia, one of the top teams in Round 1. With a roster comprised almost solely of domestic players, the team is a bit of a mystery but if they can channel the team that knocked off Botswana, they could pull the upset in this pairing.
Games
Game 1
Burundi at Lesotho
November 11, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Location: Setsoto National Stadium, Maseru, Lesotho
Game 2
Lesotho at Burundi
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:30 am EST
Location: Prince Louis Rwagasore Stadium, Bujumbura, Burundi
These two nations share many similarities, and not just on the field. Small nations, landlocked by larger neighbours with no real history in football to speak of. Both will be looking to build one with this matchup. Burundi has built up a nice run of games, while I think Lesotho's past 2 games are a bit of an anomaly more then anything. If not, this will be a dogfight but if true then Burundi should take this pairing. Winner will advance to Group 4 in Round 2 where they will face a gauntlet of teams in Ghana, Sudan and Zambia.
Pairing 9-Eritrea vs. Rwanda
World Ranking
Eritrea: 190th (49th Africa)
Rwanda: 112th (29th Africa)
Past International Records
Eritrea 2011 to date: 0-1-0
Rwanda 2011 to date: 2-2-0
Eritrea 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: Did Not Participate
Rwanda 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-5-2
Head-to-Head Record: 5-0-1 Rwanda
Team Glimpses
Eritrea: Biggest problem for Eritrea (other then winning games) in recent years has been keeping players at home to play for them. Many of the best Eritrean players have made a practice of immigrating to other countries, electing to forgo competing for Eritrea. Being unable to keep the best talent at home has crippled a nation's football team who is already well behind the best nations in Africa. Eritrea has played just 1 game in the past 2 calendar years, losing that game 3-0 to Sudan.
Rwanda: Rwanda was the chief beneficiary of Ethiopia's expulsion from 2010 qualifying, advancing as one of the best Round 2 runners-up, only to get plastered in Round 3 by the likes of Algeria and Egypt. After failing to qualify for the 2012 African Cup, Rwanda will be looking for redemption, particularly after being embarrassed by Ivory Coast 2 months ago, losing 5-0. Not even 3 years ago, Rwanda was ranked in the top 80 of the world. With much of the same personnel still on the team, this is a team with an outside shot of getting through the next round should they beat Eritrea.
Games
Game 1
Rwanda at Eritrea
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EST
Location: Cicero Stadium, Asmara, Eritrea
Game 2
Eritrea at Rwanda
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:30 am EST
Location: Stade Amahoro, Kigali, Rwanda
Eritrean football is a mess right now and a pair of games against an underrated Rwanda team isn't going to do anything to help out. I expect Rwanda to advance to Round 2 with little difficulty. Winner will advance to Group 8 in Round 2 to face Algeria, Benin, and Mali.
Pairing 10-D.R. of Congo vs. Swaziland
World Ranking
D.R. of Congo: 133rd (35th Africa)
Swaziland: 175th (45th Africa)
Past International Records
D.R. of Congo 2011 to date: 6-5-0
Swaziland 2011 to date: 1-6-3
D.R. of Congo 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-0
Swaziland 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
Head-to-Head Record: 1-1-1*
*-Includes games played by D.R. of Congo as Zaire
Team Glimpses
D.R. of Congo: After changing name from Zaire in 1997, D.R. of Congo are carrying on one of the longest and proudest traditions in African football. Zaire was the first black African team to ever compete in the World Cup Finals in 1974 (their only appearance) and have 2 African Cup of Nations championships to their credit (1968, 1974) along with a 3rd place finish (1998). Need to get more consistent in their play if they wish to qualify this campaign. Can't seem to string more then a couple wins together at a time, and not able to pick up draws the way other teams can.
Swaziland: Played some close games in 2011 against stronger competition but with only 1 win over Lesotho in 10 games this year, they could be in serious trouble in this pairing. Many of the players for Swaziland can count on one hand the number of games they've played for the national team which only adds to the problems they'll have with D.R. of Congo. Won't say they can't beat D.R. of Congo but I wouldn't get hopes up if I was a a Swaziland fan.
Games
Game 1
D.R. of Congo at Swaziland
November 11, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Location: Somhlolo National Stadium, Lobamba, Swaziland
Game 2
Swaziland at D.R. of Congo
November 15, 2011
Time: 9:30 am EST
Location: Stade des Martyrs, Kinshasa, D.R. of Congo
One thing about D.R. of Congo is they play to win games with little consideration for a draw. Nice mentality to have in qualifying but it can also cost you games due to poor defensive zone responsibility. Additionally, they have a bit of a mental block in building any run of success. Both those factors will make this pairing closer then it probably should be. D.R. of Congo should win, but I don't see it being a one-sided affair as much as others might. Winner advances to Group 9 in Round 2, joining Cameroon, Libya and either Guinea-Bissau or Togo.
Pairing 11-Congo vs. Sao Tome and Principe
World Ranking
Congo: 138th (38th Africa)
Sao Tome and Principe: Unranked*
*Was removed from World Rankings in November 2007 after not having played a game within the prior 4-year period which is the basis for the rankings. Has not been re-added to rankings as they have not played since 2003.
Past International Records
Congo 2011 to date: 1-3-0
Sao Tome and Principe 2011 to date: 0-0-0
Congo 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-0
Sao Tome and Principe 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: Did Not Participate
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-0 Congo
Team Glimpses
Congo: Would have likely advanced to Round 3 last campaign had they had an easier group. Paired with Mali, Sudan and Chad, they struggled to a 3-3 mark and missed out on advancement by a single integer in goal differential. Got taken to the woodshed by Ghana in a pair of games this year, with their only win of 2011 coming last month against Swaziland. Not a great run of games for Congo but they won't be too concerned about a pairing with Sao Tome.
Sao Tome and Principe: Literally have not much to write about here since they haven't played a game in 8 years. Highest ever ranking prior to being booted from the rankings in 2007 was 179th. 179th in 2000+8 years without a game = A long couple days for this team.
Games
Game 1
Congo at Sao Tome and Principe
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EST
Location: Estadio Nacional 12 de Julho, Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe
Game 2
Sao Tome and Principe at Congo
November 15, 2011
Time: 9:30 am EST
Location: Stade Municipal, Pointe-Noire, Congo
It's games like this when I'm happy I don't do score predictions. All I know about this matchup is that it could get ugly in a hurry. When Congo wins, they'll advance to Group 5 in Round 2 to face Burkina Faso, Gabon and Niger.
Pairing 12-Chad vs. Tanzania
World Ranking
Chad: 152nd (40th Africa)
Tanzania: 131st (34th Africa)
Past International Records
Chad 2011 to date: 0-3-1
Tanzania 2011 to date: 2-6-3
Chad 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-0
Tanzania 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-2-2
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Chad: A perennial underachiever, Chad has struggled through the years to put a competitive team on the field. Like other teams, a lack of consistency is the most infuriating part of their game. Look no further for an example then their matches against Malawi in 2012 African Cup of Nations qualifying, results that finished as a 2-2 draw and a 6-2 loss. How a team can go from a result like that to an another baffles me and has to baffles Chad's fans and coaches. Lots of potential for this team but they've yet to come close to reaching it.
Tanzania: Expected to challenge for a spot in Round 3 last campaign, they were doomed off the bat, tying Mauritius and losing to Cape Verde on the way to a dismal qualifying effort. Like Chad, Tanzania has a bad habit of playing down from their potential which shows in their recent results. They grabbed an impressive draw against Algeria in September, but that was after a 3-game losing streak, all losses to teams they're capable of beating.
Games
Game 1
Tanzania at Chad
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EST
Location: Stade Omnisports Idriss Mahamat Ouya, N'Djamena, Chad
Game 2
Chad at Tanzania
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Probably the biggest guess of all my predictions in this round. I really don't know what to expect which intrigues me more than any other pairing in Africa. Both teams in my opinion have great potential which neither has tapped yet. Maybe one can? Maybe both? Maybe none? We can only watch and find out. Slight edge to Tanzania only because they've actually won a game recently, something Chad has yet to do in 2011.
Round 1 Predictions
Ethiopia def. Somalia
Burundi def. Lesotho
Rwanda def. Eritrea
D.R. of Congo def. Swaziland
Congo def. Sao Tome and Principe
Tanzania def. Chad
Friday, October 21, 2011
Africa: Round 1 Primer Part 1/2
Round 1 of African qualifying consists of 12 2-leg matchups with the winners advancing to Round 2. It was predetermined in the 2014 Preliminary Draw which groups the Round 1 winners would be advancing to.
Part 2 here.
Pairing 1-Kenya vs. Seychelles
World Ranking
Kenya: 135th (36th Africa)
Seychelles: 178th (45th Africa)
Past International Records
Kenya 2011 to date: 3-8-1
Seychelles 2011 to date: 2-0-2
Kenya 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-7-1
Seychelles 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-6-0
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-0 Kenya
Team Glimpses
Kenya: Kenya has faced their struggles in 2011, winning just 3 of 12 games and failing to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, finishing behind Angola and Uganda. They've also had a few blowouts to top African teams losing 5-1 to Egypt and 3-0 to Nigeria amongst other losses. Kenya advanced to Round 3 of African qualifying in the 2010 campaign but that was when Round 3 consisted of 20 teams instead of 10 and they still did not win their Round 2 group advancing as a top runner-up. Kenya has the skills to be a tough opponent and will have an opportunity to make a statement in a weak Round 2 group provided they can pick up their game and get by Seychelles. Kenya will carry a 2-game unbeaten streak in to this matchup having tied Uganda and beaten Guinea-Bissau in their last 2 games.
Seychelles: Seychelles unbeaten record this year is a product of an artificially soft schedule. Seychelles elected to forgo attempting to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, instead focusing their efforts on the 2011 Indian Ocean Island Games and 2014 qualifying. Seychelles were victorious in the Island Games, posting victories against Mauritius and Maldives as well as ties against Comoros and Mauritius. All of those teams are ranked at least 30 spots beneath Kenya. Playing that sort of competition allows for even games for Seychelles but it doesn't necessarily prepare them for the challenge Kenya will pose. Almost the entire Seychelles team plays domestically as well, whereas Kenya has a wealth of international talent at their disposal.
Games
Game 1
Kenya at Seychelles
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Stade Linite, Victoria, Seychelles
Game 2
Seychelles at Kenya
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi, Kenya
I don't think there's any chance that Seychelles' unbeaten 2011 record stands up after these games. When you elect not to play against superior talent, you aren't doing anything to improve your team. Seychelles doesn't match up with personnel against Kenya and doesn't have the big-game experience to fall back on and help them. Seychelles might keep it close playing their first game at home but Kenya should pull away on aggregate in game 2 in Nairobi. Winner of this pairing will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 along with the Pairing 3 winner, joining Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 2-Guinea-Bissau vs. Togo
World Ranking
Guinea-Bissau: 167th (44th Africa)
Togo: 94th (24th Africa)
Past International Records
Guinea-Bissau 2011 to date: 1-4-0
Togo 2011 to date: 1-3-1
Guinea-Bissau 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
Togo 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-4-2
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-2 Togo
Team Glimpses
Guinea-Bissau: Guinea-Bissau is one of a few teams in Africa who were former colonial territories of Portugal which is impacted the national team greatly. Many of the players their players are Portuguese-born and they tend to follow in the Portuguese tradition of playing under one family name. While they have many ties to Portugal, they aren't close to that calibre of team on the field. Guinea-Bissau was eliminated in Round 1 of last campaign falling to Sierra Leone. They've also lost their last 5 meaningful games (all in African Cup qualifying) dating back to last year with their only 2011 win coming in a February friendly against Gambia. Also a concern for Guinea-Bissau will be experience. Very few national team players have appeared in 10 or more games.
Togo: Togo football has been in the news a lot in the past 2 years, mostly for the wrong reasons. In January 2010, their bus was attacked by Angolan separatists at the 2010 African Cup of Nations, killing and wounding nearly a dozen players and officials. Then in September of the same year, there was a scandal after a friendly match between Bahrain and Togo. The match had occurred without knowledge of the football association, instead being organized by a disgruntled ex-coach who had called up the players himself. For Togo's sake, let's hope they can put these instances behind them because this team has tremendous potential, having been a fixture in the African Cup through the turn of the century and having qualified for the World Cup Finals in 2006. Togo will miss star striker Emmanuel Adebayor though who retired from international football after the bus incident.
Games
Game 1
Togo at Guinea-Bissau
November 11, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Estadio Lino Correia, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
Game 2
Guinea-Bissau at Togo
November 15, 2011
Time: 10:30 am EST
Location: Stade de Kegue, Lome, Togo
Togo should be favoured but there is more of a potential for an upset in this pairing then the first. Guinea-Bissau has improved since last campaign while Togo has stagnated and with all the issues in their football association, it's hard to tell which Togo team will show up. Guinea-Bissau gets the first game at home and if they can emerge with a draw, I think they'll stand a shot at advancing. Winner of this pairing will join the winner of Pairing 10 and advance to Group 9 of Round 2 along with Cameroon and Libya.
Pairing 3-Djibouti vs. Namibia
World Ranking
Djibouti: 195th (51st Africa)
Namibia: 127th (33rd Africa)
Past International Records
Djibouti 2011 to date: 0-0-0
Namibia 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Djibouti 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-6-0
Namibia 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-0
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Djibouti: In November 2007, Djibouti beat Somalia 1-0 to advance to Round 2 of World Cup qualifying. That win remains the ONLY senior level win Djibouti has EVER recorded. They are the lowest ranked team in African qualifying and one of the worst teams in the world. Last games they played were a string of 3 friendlies in late 2009 which they lost by a combined score of 13-0 to Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia. Sufficed to say, Djibouti could be in for a rough couple of games in November.
Namibia: Namibia will come in to this game on a 3-game unbeaten streak pending the results of a friendly against Lesotho and will take no small comfort in knowing who they have as an opponent. Namibia, like many African teams is short on international experience so a pair of games against a team like Djibouti will help for them to continue gelling as a team and to prepare for Round 2. Namibia finished 2010 qualifying at 2-4 with wins over Kenya and Zimbabwe, but they will need more in Round 2 this time around if they wish to advance past that stage.
Games
Game 1
Namibia at Djibouti
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade National Gouled, Djibouti, Djibouti
Game 2
Djibouti at Namibia
November 15, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Location: Sam Nujoma Stadium, Windhoek, Namibia
Namibia isn't a great team in their own right but they'll probably look like it on the field against Djibouti. Of course, most teams would look like one against Djibouti. Barring one of the greatest upsets in football history, Namibia will be advancing to Group 6 of Round 2, joining either Kenya or Seychelles along with Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 4-Liberia vs. Mauritius
Mauritius withdrew from qualifying on October 31, 2011. Liberia has been advanced to Group 10 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying where they will face Angola, Senegal and Uganda.
Pairing 5-Comoros vs. Mozambique
World Ranking
Comoros: 183rd (47th Africa)
Mozambique: 110th (27th Africa)
Past International Records
Comoros 2011 to date: 0-4-3
Mozambique 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Comoros 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-0-2
Mozambique 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-5-3
Head-to-Head Record: 2-0-0 Mozambique
Team Glimpses
Comoros: Attempting to qualify for the first time in their history, Comoros faces an uphill battle having failed to win a game in the past 2 years. Comoros posted a series of draws at this eyar's Indian Ocean Island Games but the competition faced in that tournament is a sizeable degree lower then Mozambique. Comoros hasn't exactly faired well against Mozambique either, losing to them twice in the past round of qualifying for the African Cup of Nations, including a 3-0 loss less then a month ago.
Mozambique: Mozambique is the highest seeded team in Round 1 and is coming off a 2010 qualifying campaign which saw them advance to Round 3 in Africa before falling in a group that featured traditional powers Nigeria and Tunisia. Like Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique is a former Portuguese colony and they have a number of Portuguese-born players on their squad. Mozambique also receives a boost from having a number of players based in foreign Premier leagues, always an advantage for smaller nations. Despite a poor run in 2012 African Cup qualifying, Mozambique should have a sizeable edge over Comoros with a 3-0 victory over the island nation fresh in the minds of the players.
Games
Game 1
Mozambique at Comoros
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade Said Mohamed Cheikh, Mitsamiouli, Comoros
Game 2
Comoros at Mozambique
November 15, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio do Zimpeto, Maputo, Mozambique
Mozambique would likely be favoured over any other team in this round of qualifying at this juncture. Against a weak side like Comoros who Mozambique has twice knocked off recently, they're miles ahead of their opponent. I expect this pairing to be out of reach after Game 1. Winner will advance to Group 7 in Round 2 where they will meet Egypt, Guinea and Zimbabwe.
Pairing 6-Equatorial Guinea vs. Madagascar
World Ranking
Equatorial Guinea: 155th (41st Africa)
Madagascar: 165th (43rd Africa)
Past International Records
Equatorial Guinea 2011 to date: 3-2-1
Madagascar 2011 to date: 0-4-1
Equatorial Guinea 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-5-0
Madagascar 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-2-3
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Equatorial Guinea: Still need to improve greatly if they want to qualify but this team has come a long way since last which saw them lose 5 of 6 games. Equatorial Guinea has made a point of playing against stronger competition and the improvement has shown in their results. They've beaten all the teams ranked near or beneath them and most recently tied Cameroon, one of the best nations in Africa. If they can at least compete with teams in that echelon, they'll stand a shot at making some noise this qualifying campaign.
Madagascar: Not sure what to make of this team and how they've performed this year. Madagascar has paired close losses to powerhouses like Iran and Nigeria with bad losses to Ethiopia and Guinea. Are they the team that can play with Iran? Or are they the team that gets blown out by mid-level African nations. Equatorial Guinea will be a good measuring stick to see which is true of this team. Madagascar was a bit of a shock last campaign, in contention to win their Round 2 group until the last day, a group that featured Ivory Coast among others. Not knowing what to expect could be dangerous for Equatorial Guinea. Or they could coast through. We'll see.
Games
Game 1
Madagascar at Equatorial Guinea
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EST
Location: Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea
Game 2
Equatorial Guinea at Madagascar
November 15, 2011
Time: 6:30 am EST
Location: Mahamasina Municipal Stadium, Antananarivo, Madagascar
In a round where there really isn't a lot of intrigue, this is a matchup with a lot of potential for excitement. I think that if the two teams play to their capabilities, every minute of both games will be needed to decide a winner. I'm leaning towards thinking Equatorial Guinea takes the win though simply because we know what to expect from them. They're a solid mid-level African team with the potential to pull some upsets in the next round. We don't what Madagascar really is right now and that's a problem for them heading in to a tough 2-game set. Winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 2 where they'll face Cape Verde, Sierra Leone and Tunisia.
Round 1 Predictions
Kenya def. Seychelles
Togo def. Guinea-Bissau
Namibia def. Djibouti
Liberia def. Mauritius*
Mozambique def. Comoros
Equatorial Guinea def. Madagascar
*-Not being played although I had this part done up before they withdrew.
Part 2 here.
Pairing 1-Kenya vs. Seychelles
World Ranking
Kenya: 135th (36th Africa)
Seychelles: 178th (45th Africa)
Past International Records
Kenya 2011 to date: 3-8-1
Seychelles 2011 to date: 2-0-2
Kenya 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-7-1
Seychelles 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-6-0
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-0 Kenya
Team Glimpses
Kenya: Kenya has faced their struggles in 2011, winning just 3 of 12 games and failing to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, finishing behind Angola and Uganda. They've also had a few blowouts to top African teams losing 5-1 to Egypt and 3-0 to Nigeria amongst other losses. Kenya advanced to Round 3 of African qualifying in the 2010 campaign but that was when Round 3 consisted of 20 teams instead of 10 and they still did not win their Round 2 group advancing as a top runner-up. Kenya has the skills to be a tough opponent and will have an opportunity to make a statement in a weak Round 2 group provided they can pick up their game and get by Seychelles. Kenya will carry a 2-game unbeaten streak in to this matchup having tied Uganda and beaten Guinea-Bissau in their last 2 games.
Seychelles: Seychelles unbeaten record this year is a product of an artificially soft schedule. Seychelles elected to forgo attempting to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, instead focusing their efforts on the 2011 Indian Ocean Island Games and 2014 qualifying. Seychelles were victorious in the Island Games, posting victories against Mauritius and Maldives as well as ties against Comoros and Mauritius. All of those teams are ranked at least 30 spots beneath Kenya. Playing that sort of competition allows for even games for Seychelles but it doesn't necessarily prepare them for the challenge Kenya will pose. Almost the entire Seychelles team plays domestically as well, whereas Kenya has a wealth of international talent at their disposal.
Games
Game 1
Kenya at Seychelles
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Stade Linite, Victoria, Seychelles
Game 2
Seychelles at Kenya
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi, Kenya
I don't think there's any chance that Seychelles' unbeaten 2011 record stands up after these games. When you elect not to play against superior talent, you aren't doing anything to improve your team. Seychelles doesn't match up with personnel against Kenya and doesn't have the big-game experience to fall back on and help them. Seychelles might keep it close playing their first game at home but Kenya should pull away on aggregate in game 2 in Nairobi. Winner of this pairing will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 along with the Pairing 3 winner, joining Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 2-Guinea-Bissau vs. Togo
World Ranking
Guinea-Bissau: 167th (44th Africa)
Togo: 94th (24th Africa)
Past International Records
Guinea-Bissau 2011 to date: 1-4-0
Togo 2011 to date: 1-3-1
Guinea-Bissau 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
Togo 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-4-2
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-2 Togo
Team Glimpses
Guinea-Bissau: Guinea-Bissau is one of a few teams in Africa who were former colonial territories of Portugal which is impacted the national team greatly. Many of the players their players are Portuguese-born and they tend to follow in the Portuguese tradition of playing under one family name. While they have many ties to Portugal, they aren't close to that calibre of team on the field. Guinea-Bissau was eliminated in Round 1 of last campaign falling to Sierra Leone. They've also lost their last 5 meaningful games (all in African Cup qualifying) dating back to last year with their only 2011 win coming in a February friendly against Gambia. Also a concern for Guinea-Bissau will be experience. Very few national team players have appeared in 10 or more games.
Togo: Togo football has been in the news a lot in the past 2 years, mostly for the wrong reasons. In January 2010, their bus was attacked by Angolan separatists at the 2010 African Cup of Nations, killing and wounding nearly a dozen players and officials. Then in September of the same year, there was a scandal after a friendly match between Bahrain and Togo. The match had occurred without knowledge of the football association, instead being organized by a disgruntled ex-coach who had called up the players himself. For Togo's sake, let's hope they can put these instances behind them because this team has tremendous potential, having been a fixture in the African Cup through the turn of the century and having qualified for the World Cup Finals in 2006. Togo will miss star striker Emmanuel Adebayor though who retired from international football after the bus incident.
Games
Game 1
Togo at Guinea-Bissau
November 11, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Estadio Lino Correia, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
Game 2
Guinea-Bissau at Togo
November 15, 2011
Time: 10:30 am EST
Location: Stade de Kegue, Lome, Togo
Togo should be favoured but there is more of a potential for an upset in this pairing then the first. Guinea-Bissau has improved since last campaign while Togo has stagnated and with all the issues in their football association, it's hard to tell which Togo team will show up. Guinea-Bissau gets the first game at home and if they can emerge with a draw, I think they'll stand a shot at advancing. Winner of this pairing will join the winner of Pairing 10 and advance to Group 9 of Round 2 along with Cameroon and Libya.
Pairing 3-Djibouti vs. Namibia
World Ranking
Djibouti: 195th (51st Africa)
Namibia: 127th (33rd Africa)
Past International Records
Djibouti 2011 to date: 0-0-0
Namibia 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Djibouti 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-6-0
Namibia 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-0
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Djibouti: In November 2007, Djibouti beat Somalia 1-0 to advance to Round 2 of World Cup qualifying. That win remains the ONLY senior level win Djibouti has EVER recorded. They are the lowest ranked team in African qualifying and one of the worst teams in the world. Last games they played were a string of 3 friendlies in late 2009 which they lost by a combined score of 13-0 to Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia. Sufficed to say, Djibouti could be in for a rough couple of games in November.
Namibia: Namibia will come in to this game on a 3-game unbeaten streak pending the results of a friendly against Lesotho and will take no small comfort in knowing who they have as an opponent. Namibia, like many African teams is short on international experience so a pair of games against a team like Djibouti will help for them to continue gelling as a team and to prepare for Round 2. Namibia finished 2010 qualifying at 2-4 with wins over Kenya and Zimbabwe, but they will need more in Round 2 this time around if they wish to advance past that stage.
Games
Game 1
Namibia at Djibouti
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade National Gouled, Djibouti, Djibouti
Game 2
Djibouti at Namibia
November 15, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Location: Sam Nujoma Stadium, Windhoek, Namibia
Namibia isn't a great team in their own right but they'll probably look like it on the field against Djibouti. Of course, most teams would look like one against Djibouti. Barring one of the greatest upsets in football history, Namibia will be advancing to Group 6 of Round 2, joining either Kenya or Seychelles along with Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 4-Liberia vs. Mauritius
Mauritius withdrew from qualifying on October 31, 2011. Liberia has been advanced to Group 10 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying where they will face Angola, Senegal and Uganda.
Pairing 5-Comoros vs. Mozambique
World Ranking
Comoros: 183rd (47th Africa)
Mozambique: 110th (27th Africa)
Past International Records
Comoros 2011 to date: 0-4-3
Mozambique 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Comoros 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-0-2
Mozambique 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-5-3
Head-to-Head Record: 2-0-0 Mozambique
Team Glimpses
Comoros: Attempting to qualify for the first time in their history, Comoros faces an uphill battle having failed to win a game in the past 2 years. Comoros posted a series of draws at this eyar's Indian Ocean Island Games but the competition faced in that tournament is a sizeable degree lower then Mozambique. Comoros hasn't exactly faired well against Mozambique either, losing to them twice in the past round of qualifying for the African Cup of Nations, including a 3-0 loss less then a month ago.
Mozambique: Mozambique is the highest seeded team in Round 1 and is coming off a 2010 qualifying campaign which saw them advance to Round 3 in Africa before falling in a group that featured traditional powers Nigeria and Tunisia. Like Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique is a former Portuguese colony and they have a number of Portuguese-born players on their squad. Mozambique also receives a boost from having a number of players based in foreign Premier leagues, always an advantage for smaller nations. Despite a poor run in 2012 African Cup qualifying, Mozambique should have a sizeable edge over Comoros with a 3-0 victory over the island nation fresh in the minds of the players.
Games
Game 1
Mozambique at Comoros
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade Said Mohamed Cheikh, Mitsamiouli, Comoros
Game 2
Comoros at Mozambique
November 15, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio do Zimpeto, Maputo, Mozambique
Mozambique would likely be favoured over any other team in this round of qualifying at this juncture. Against a weak side like Comoros who Mozambique has twice knocked off recently, they're miles ahead of their opponent. I expect this pairing to be out of reach after Game 1. Winner will advance to Group 7 in Round 2 where they will meet Egypt, Guinea and Zimbabwe.
Pairing 6-Equatorial Guinea vs. Madagascar
World Ranking
Equatorial Guinea: 155th (41st Africa)
Madagascar: 165th (43rd Africa)
Past International Records
Equatorial Guinea 2011 to date: 3-2-1
Madagascar 2011 to date: 0-4-1
Equatorial Guinea 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-5-0
Madagascar 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-2-3
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Equatorial Guinea: Still need to improve greatly if they want to qualify but this team has come a long way since last which saw them lose 5 of 6 games. Equatorial Guinea has made a point of playing against stronger competition and the improvement has shown in their results. They've beaten all the teams ranked near or beneath them and most recently tied Cameroon, one of the best nations in Africa. If they can at least compete with teams in that echelon, they'll stand a shot at making some noise this qualifying campaign.
Madagascar: Not sure what to make of this team and how they've performed this year. Madagascar has paired close losses to powerhouses like Iran and Nigeria with bad losses to Ethiopia and Guinea. Are they the team that can play with Iran? Or are they the team that gets blown out by mid-level African nations. Equatorial Guinea will be a good measuring stick to see which is true of this team. Madagascar was a bit of a shock last campaign, in contention to win their Round 2 group until the last day, a group that featured Ivory Coast among others. Not knowing what to expect could be dangerous for Equatorial Guinea. Or they could coast through. We'll see.
Games
Game 1
Madagascar at Equatorial Guinea
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EST
Location: Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea
Game 2
Equatorial Guinea at Madagascar
November 15, 2011
Time: 6:30 am EST
Location: Mahamasina Municipal Stadium, Antananarivo, Madagascar
In a round where there really isn't a lot of intrigue, this is a matchup with a lot of potential for excitement. I think that if the two teams play to their capabilities, every minute of both games will be needed to decide a winner. I'm leaning towards thinking Equatorial Guinea takes the win though simply because we know what to expect from them. They're a solid mid-level African team with the potential to pull some upsets in the next round. We don't what Madagascar really is right now and that's a problem for them heading in to a tough 2-game set. Winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 2 where they'll face Cape Verde, Sierra Leone and Tunisia.
Round 1 Predictions
Kenya def. Seychelles
Togo def. Guinea-Bissau
Namibia def. Djibouti
Liberia def. Mauritius*
Mozambique def. Comoros
Equatorial Guinea def. Madagascar
*-Not being played although I had this part done up before they withdrew.
October 2011 Review: North America-Group 6
Standings
Game Results
Game 5-Haiti def. U.S. Virgin Islands 7-0 in Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands on October 7, 2011
Game 6-Antigua/Barbuda def. Curacao 1-0 in Willemstad, Curacao on October 7, 2011
Game 7-Curacao tied Haiti 2-2 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti on October 11, 2011
Game 8-Antigua/Barbuda def. U.S. Virgin Islands 10-0 in St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda on October 11, 2011
Thoughts
Antigua/Barbuda-There are entire groups in qualifying with less goals scored the Antigua has to its credit. Remaining question is can they continue their offensive burst against a quality opponent such as Haiti. No disrespect to Curacao or USVI but they don't represent nearly the same challenge that Haiti will. Yes, Antigua has performed better then Haiti against those same opponents, but head-to-head is all that will matter in November.
Curacao-I think getting eliminated ticked this team off because they were an entirely different animal against Haiti. While they can't advance, they've done what a lot of teams struggle to do which is constantly improve throughout qualifying. For many teams, that is all you can ask and Curacao has done exactly that. If they can continue that trend, they could pose a bigger threat next qualifying campaign.
Haiti-I was waiting to see if either Haiti or Antigua would falter before meeting in November and Haiti did on their last game of October. While they were able to salvage something with the draw, they're in a real bad position now as they prepare to take on Antigua. Lose either of their 2 November games and they're out. Antigua can take a loss and still advance, a big advantage as these teams prepare to face off.
U.S. Virgin Islands-2 more games. 2 more games and they can end the agony of this round. Curacao should be a more fair fight for them although they'll still face an uphill climb just to get a point.
Going Forward
Curacao and USVI will play a pair of games to finish up their qualifying campaign. Both were eliminated October 7th. Haiti and Antigua will play a pair of games with the group on the line an Antigua/Barbuda holding a 2 point margin. Haiti will need to take 4 points minimum from those 2 games in order to advance.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-12 pts
x-Curacao-0 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
Actual:
Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-10 pts
x-Curacao-1 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
We'll see in November whether or not that draw with Curacao will come back to burn Haiti.
Game Results
Game 5-Haiti def. U.S. Virgin Islands 7-0 in Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands on October 7, 2011
- Haiti Goals-Jean-Eudes Maurice (5', 66', 82'), Kim Jaggy (11'), Kervens Belfort (57', 74'), Reginal Goreux (64')
Game 6-Antigua/Barbuda def. Curacao 1-0 in Willemstad, Curacao on October 7, 2011
- Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Tamarley Thomas (73')
Game 7-Curacao tied Haiti 2-2 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti on October 11, 2011
- Curacao Goals-Rocky Siberie (7'), Sendley Bito (14')
- Haiti Goals-Jean-Eudes Maurice (25'), Kervens Belfort (60')
Game 8-Antigua/Barbuda def. U.S. Virgin Islands 10-0 in St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda on October 11, 2011
- Antigua/Barbuda Goals-Tamarley Thomas (7', 41', 78'), Peter Byers (24', 31', 40'), Randolph Burton (55', 65'), Jamie Thomas (86'), Kieran Murtagh (90+2')
Thoughts
Antigua/Barbuda-There are entire groups in qualifying with less goals scored the Antigua has to its credit. Remaining question is can they continue their offensive burst against a quality opponent such as Haiti. No disrespect to Curacao or USVI but they don't represent nearly the same challenge that Haiti will. Yes, Antigua has performed better then Haiti against those same opponents, but head-to-head is all that will matter in November.
Curacao-I think getting eliminated ticked this team off because they were an entirely different animal against Haiti. While they can't advance, they've done what a lot of teams struggle to do which is constantly improve throughout qualifying. For many teams, that is all you can ask and Curacao has done exactly that. If they can continue that trend, they could pose a bigger threat next qualifying campaign.
Haiti-I was waiting to see if either Haiti or Antigua would falter before meeting in November and Haiti did on their last game of October. While they were able to salvage something with the draw, they're in a real bad position now as they prepare to take on Antigua. Lose either of their 2 November games and they're out. Antigua can take a loss and still advance, a big advantage as these teams prepare to face off.
U.S. Virgin Islands-2 more games. 2 more games and they can end the agony of this round. Curacao should be a more fair fight for them although they'll still face an uphill climb just to get a point.
Going Forward
Curacao and USVI will play a pair of games to finish up their qualifying campaign. Both were eliminated October 7th. Haiti and Antigua will play a pair of games with the group on the line an Antigua/Barbuda holding a 2 point margin. Haiti will need to take 4 points minimum from those 2 games in order to advance.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-12 pts
x-Curacao-0 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
Actual:
Antigua/Barbuda-12 pts
Haiti-10 pts
x-Curacao-1 pts
x-U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
We'll see in November whether or not that draw with Curacao will come back to burn Haiti.
October 2011 Review: North America-Group 5
Standings
Game Results
Game 5-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 3-0 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on October 7, 2011
Game 6-Grenada def. Belize 4-1 in Belmopan, Belize on October 7, 2011
Game 7-Guatemala def. Belize 3-1 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on October 11, 2011
Game 8-Grenada tied St. Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 in St. George's, Grenada on October 15, 2011
Thoughts
Belize-Looked really strong in Round 1 and early in this group but fell apart this month with a pair of losses. Guatemalan loss is understandable against a good team with some calls going against them but loss to Grenada is an anomaly, especially considering Grenada's failures in every game this group. Belize could be suffering from a lack of depth as many of their stalwarts have played every minute of qualfiying this year. With a pair of meaningless games left, they'll have a chance to tinker with their roster.
Grenada-I give up trying to understand this team. No consistency whatsoever and their fans have to be frustrated because this team has shown in previous competitions that they're capable of competing at a high level. I don't know what they can do to stop the bleeding right now but they better come up with something quick; they have a pair of games against Guatemala on deck.
Guatemala-In a group full of underachieving teams, Guatemala has held strong all round, posting a perfect record and having the dubious honour of being the only group team with a positive goal differential. Already qualified for Round 3, they'll use their games against Grenada as a warmup for greater competition. Looming on the horizon in Round 3 will be the U.S., a big test for the central American nation.
St. Vincent/Grenadines-Wasn't expected to be a threat in this group and with 4 points in 4 games, they're right where you might expect them to be. Would have liked to defeat Grenada and maintain a slim shot of advancing but playing a spoiler role is a small consolation prize and they can claim to be the ones who torpedoed Grenada's hopes. Not a glamourous role but one they've filled quite well.
Going Forward
Guatemala has clinched the group and will advance to Group 1 in Round 3. with Jamaica, USA and the group 6 winner.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts
Actual:
a-Guatemala-12 pts
x-Grenada-4 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Belize-3 pts
Surprise win by Grenada against Belize the only miss, and also the primary reason why Guatemala has clinched the group.
Game Results
Game 5-Guatemala def. St. Vincent/Grenadines 3-0 in Kingstown, St. Vincent/Grenadines on October 7, 2011
- Guatemala Goals-Mario Rodriguez (44', 58'), Dwight Pezzarossi (71')
Game 6-Grenada def. Belize 4-1 in Belmopan, Belize on October 7, 2011
- Grenada Goals-Shane Rennie (37'), Marcus Julien (41'), Lancaster Joseph (50'), Clive Murray (80')
- Belize Goals-Ryan Simpson (90')
Game 7-Guatemala def. Belize 3-1 in Guatemala City, Guatemala on October 11, 2011
- Guatemala Goals-Carlos Gallardo (8'), Minor Lopez (65'), Carlos Ruiz (78')
- Belize Goals-Deon McCauley (31')
Game 8-Grenada tied St. Vincent/Grenadines 1-1 in St. George's, Grenada on October 15, 2011
- St. Vincent Goals-Myron Samuel (62')
- Grenada Goals-Clive Murray (90+2')
Thoughts
Belize-Looked really strong in Round 1 and early in this group but fell apart this month with a pair of losses. Guatemalan loss is understandable against a good team with some calls going against them but loss to Grenada is an anomaly, especially considering Grenada's failures in every game this group. Belize could be suffering from a lack of depth as many of their stalwarts have played every minute of qualfiying this year. With a pair of meaningless games left, they'll have a chance to tinker with their roster.
Grenada-I give up trying to understand this team. No consistency whatsoever and their fans have to be frustrated because this team has shown in previous competitions that they're capable of competing at a high level. I don't know what they can do to stop the bleeding right now but they better come up with something quick; they have a pair of games against Guatemala on deck.
Guatemala-In a group full of underachieving teams, Guatemala has held strong all round, posting a perfect record and having the dubious honour of being the only group team with a positive goal differential. Already qualified for Round 3, they'll use their games against Grenada as a warmup for greater competition. Looming on the horizon in Round 3 will be the U.S., a big test for the central American nation.
St. Vincent/Grenadines-Wasn't expected to be a threat in this group and with 4 points in 4 games, they're right where you might expect them to be. Would have liked to defeat Grenada and maintain a slim shot of advancing but playing a spoiler role is a small consolation prize and they can claim to be the ones who torpedoed Grenada's hopes. Not a glamourous role but one they've filled quite well.
Going Forward
Guatemala has clinched the group and will advance to Group 1 in Round 3. with Jamaica, USA and the group 6 winner.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Guatemala-12 pts
Belize-6 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Grenada-1 pts
Actual:
a-Guatemala-12 pts
x-Grenada-4 pts
x-St.Vincent/Grenadines-4 pts
x-Belize-3 pts
Surprise win by Grenada against Belize the only miss, and also the primary reason why Guatemala has clinched the group.
October 2011 Review: North America-Group 4
Standings
Game Results
Game 5-Canada def. Saint Lucia 7-0 in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia on October 7, 2011
Game 6-Puerto Rico tied Saint Kitts/Nevis 1-1 in Bayamon, Puerto Rico on October 7, 2011
Game 7-Canada tied Puerto Rico 0-0 in Toronto, Canada on October 11, 2011
One of the strangest results of CONCACAF qualifying so far, Canada put forward a very weak performance, tying Puerto Rico on home soil and failing to score a goal in the process. Canada dominated possession but could not find a way past Puerto Rican keeper Brandon Saldana. Surprisingly, the best scoring chance of the game came from Puerto Rico late in the second half when Andres Perez was just barely denied by Canadian goaltender Lars Hirschfeld.
Game 8-Saint Kitts/Nevis tied Saint Lucia 1-1 in Basseterre, Saint Kitts/Nevis on October 11, 2011
Thoughts
Canada-Drawing Puerto Rico was disappointing but thanks to a couple of blunders by Saint Kitts, Canada remains firmly in control of the group. All they need is to draw Saint Kitts in one of their 2 November matches in order to advance to Round 3. Biggest concern coming out of the Puerto Rico game is the return of a long existing one: finishing ability. Canada was held goalless despite a serious possession advantage, after scoring 14 goals in their first 3 group matches.
Puerto Rico-Given an outside shot at advancing at the beginning of qualifying, they showed the form people expected of them this month, picking up a pair of draws against the leaders of the group. 3 ties in 4 games are a testament to the strong defence of this team but with only 1 goal for in 4 games, this team probably was never going to be a serious threat in the group. Will definitely have a chance to improve their standing in November when they meet Saint Lucia.
Saint Kitts/Nevis-I don't want to be that guy but if they'd done what they were expected this month, they'd be tied with Canada on points and have a much more favourable shot at advancing then they do now. Saint Kitts seems to be lacking the killer instinct needed against weaker opponents. They allowed both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia an opportunity and both teams seized on it, forcing Saint Kitts to focus not on winning but just on surviving.
Saint Lucia-Rebounded nicely from a 7-0 pounding to take a lead against Saint Kitts late only to see it wiped away before the final whistle. Saint Lucia will have Puerto Rico in November, the opponent most closely matched to them skill-wise in the group. While already eliminated, these games could be the most important for Saint Lucia as they continue to try and build their program and evaluate the talent available for next campaign.
Going Forward
Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia meet in a 2-game series. Both teams are eliminated and will just gain experience from the games. Saint Kitts/Nevis and Canada meet in a 2-game series with the group on the line. Saint Kitts/Nevis must win both games in order to advance to Round 3. With no losses on their record, Canada doesn't appear likely to give those wins up to Saint Kitts.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Canada-12 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-8 pts
x-Puerto Rico-2 pts
x-Saint Lucia-0 pts
Actual:
Canada-10 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-6 pts
x-Puerto Rico-3 pts
x-Saint Lucia-1 pts
Both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia picked up surprise draws on the 11th, making for quite a boring day for the group.
Game Results
Game 5-Canada def. Saint Lucia 7-0 in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia on October 7, 2011
- Canada Goals-Simeon Jackson (18', 28', 40'), Olivier Occean (34', 51'), Iain Hume (72', 86')
Game 6-Puerto Rico tied Saint Kitts/Nevis 1-1 in Bayamon, Puerto Rico on October 7, 2011
- Puerto Rico Goals-Andres Cabrero (37')
- Saint Kitts/Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (59')
Game 7-Canada tied Puerto Rico 0-0 in Toronto, Canada on October 11, 2011
One of the strangest results of CONCACAF qualifying so far, Canada put forward a very weak performance, tying Puerto Rico on home soil and failing to score a goal in the process. Canada dominated possession but could not find a way past Puerto Rican keeper Brandon Saldana. Surprisingly, the best scoring chance of the game came from Puerto Rico late in the second half when Andres Perez was just barely denied by Canadian goaltender Lars Hirschfeld.
Game 8-Saint Kitts/Nevis tied Saint Lucia 1-1 in Basseterre, Saint Kitts/Nevis on October 11, 2011
- Saint Lucia Goals-Cliff Valcin (74')
- Saint Kitts/Nevis Goals-Ian Lake (83')
Thoughts
Canada-Drawing Puerto Rico was disappointing but thanks to a couple of blunders by Saint Kitts, Canada remains firmly in control of the group. All they need is to draw Saint Kitts in one of their 2 November matches in order to advance to Round 3. Biggest concern coming out of the Puerto Rico game is the return of a long existing one: finishing ability. Canada was held goalless despite a serious possession advantage, after scoring 14 goals in their first 3 group matches.
Puerto Rico-Given an outside shot at advancing at the beginning of qualifying, they showed the form people expected of them this month, picking up a pair of draws against the leaders of the group. 3 ties in 4 games are a testament to the strong defence of this team but with only 1 goal for in 4 games, this team probably was never going to be a serious threat in the group. Will definitely have a chance to improve their standing in November when they meet Saint Lucia.
Saint Kitts/Nevis-I don't want to be that guy but if they'd done what they were expected this month, they'd be tied with Canada on points and have a much more favourable shot at advancing then they do now. Saint Kitts seems to be lacking the killer instinct needed against weaker opponents. They allowed both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia an opportunity and both teams seized on it, forcing Saint Kitts to focus not on winning but just on surviving.
Saint Lucia-Rebounded nicely from a 7-0 pounding to take a lead against Saint Kitts late only to see it wiped away before the final whistle. Saint Lucia will have Puerto Rico in November, the opponent most closely matched to them skill-wise in the group. While already eliminated, these games could be the most important for Saint Lucia as they continue to try and build their program and evaluate the talent available for next campaign.
Going Forward
Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia meet in a 2-game series. Both teams are eliminated and will just gain experience from the games. Saint Kitts/Nevis and Canada meet in a 2-game series with the group on the line. Saint Kitts/Nevis must win both games in order to advance to Round 3. With no losses on their record, Canada doesn't appear likely to give those wins up to Saint Kitts.
Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:
Prediction:
Canada-12 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-8 pts
x-Puerto Rico-2 pts
x-Saint Lucia-0 pts
Actual:
Canada-10 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-6 pts
x-Puerto Rico-3 pts
x-Saint Lucia-1 pts
Both Puerto Rico and Saint Lucia picked up surprise draws on the 11th, making for quite a boring day for the group.
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