Round 1 of African qualifying consists of 12 2-leg matchups with the winners advancing to Round 2. It was predetermined in the 2014 Preliminary Draw which groups the Round 1 winners would be advancing to.
Part 2 here.
Pairing 1-Kenya vs. Seychelles
World Ranking
Kenya: 135th (36th Africa)
Seychelles: 178th (45th Africa)
Past International Records
Kenya 2011 to date: 3-8-1
Seychelles 2011 to date: 2-0-2
Kenya 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-7-1
Seychelles 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-6-0
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-0 Kenya
Team Glimpses
Kenya: Kenya has faced their struggles in 2011, winning just 3 of 12 games and failing to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, finishing behind Angola and Uganda. They've also had a few blowouts to top African teams losing 5-1 to Egypt and 3-0 to Nigeria amongst other losses. Kenya advanced to Round 3 of African qualifying in the 2010 campaign but that was when Round 3 consisted of 20 teams instead of 10 and they still did not win their Round 2 group advancing as a top runner-up. Kenya has the skills to be a tough opponent and will have an opportunity to make a statement in a weak Round 2 group provided they can pick up their game and get by Seychelles. Kenya will carry a 2-game unbeaten streak in to this matchup having tied Uganda and beaten Guinea-Bissau in their last 2 games.
Seychelles: Seychelles unbeaten record this year is a product of an artificially soft schedule. Seychelles elected to forgo attempting to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, instead focusing their efforts on the 2011 Indian Ocean Island Games and 2014 qualifying. Seychelles were victorious in the Island Games, posting victories against Mauritius and Maldives as well as ties against Comoros and Mauritius. All of those teams are ranked at least 30 spots beneath Kenya. Playing that sort of competition allows for even games for Seychelles but it doesn't necessarily prepare them for the challenge Kenya will pose. Almost the entire Seychelles team plays domestically as well, whereas Kenya has a wealth of international talent at their disposal.
Games
Game 1
Kenya at Seychelles
November 11, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Stade Linite, Victoria, Seychelles
Game 2
Seychelles at Kenya
November 15, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EST
Location: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi, Kenya
I don't think there's any chance that Seychelles' unbeaten 2011 record stands up after these games. When you elect not to play against superior talent, you aren't doing anything to improve your team. Seychelles doesn't match up with personnel against Kenya and doesn't have the big-game experience to fall back on and help them. Seychelles might keep it close playing their first game at home but Kenya should pull away on aggregate in game 2 in Nairobi. Winner of this pairing will advance to Group 6 of Round 2 along with the Pairing 3 winner, joining Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 2-Guinea-Bissau vs. Togo
World Ranking
Guinea-Bissau: 167th (44th Africa)
Togo: 94th (24th Africa)
Past International Records
Guinea-Bissau 2011 to date: 1-4-0
Togo 2011 to date: 1-3-1
Guinea-Bissau 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
Togo 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-4-2
Head-to-Head Record: 1-0-2 Togo
Team Glimpses
Guinea-Bissau: Guinea-Bissau is one of a few teams in Africa who were former colonial territories of Portugal which is impacted the national team greatly. Many of the players their players are Portuguese-born and they tend to follow in the Portuguese tradition of playing under one family name. While they have many ties to Portugal, they aren't close to that calibre of team on the field. Guinea-Bissau was eliminated in Round 1 of last campaign falling to Sierra Leone. They've also lost their last 5 meaningful games (all in African Cup qualifying) dating back to last year with their only 2011 win coming in a February friendly against Gambia. Also a concern for Guinea-Bissau will be experience. Very few national team players have appeared in 10 or more games.
Togo: Togo football has been in the news a lot in the past 2 years, mostly for the wrong reasons. In January 2010, their bus was attacked by Angolan separatists at the 2010 African Cup of Nations, killing and wounding nearly a dozen players and officials. Then in September of the same year, there was a scandal after a friendly match between Bahrain and Togo. The match had occurred without knowledge of the football association, instead being organized by a disgruntled ex-coach who had called up the players himself. For Togo's sake, let's hope they can put these instances behind them because this team has tremendous potential, having been a fixture in the African Cup through the turn of the century and having qualified for the World Cup Finals in 2006. Togo will miss star striker Emmanuel Adebayor though who retired from international football after the bus incident.
Games
Game 1
Togo at Guinea-Bissau
November 11, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EST
Location: Estadio Lino Correia, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
Game 2
Guinea-Bissau at Togo
November 15, 2011
Time: 10:30 am EST
Location: Stade de Kegue, Lome, Togo
Togo should be favoured but there is more of a potential for an upset in this pairing then the first. Guinea-Bissau has improved since last campaign while Togo has stagnated and with all the issues in their football association, it's hard to tell which Togo team will show up. Guinea-Bissau gets the first game at home and if they can emerge with a draw, I think they'll stand a shot at advancing. Winner of this pairing will join the winner of Pairing 10 and advance to Group 9 of Round 2 along with Cameroon and Libya.
Pairing 3-Djibouti vs. Namibia
World Ranking
Djibouti: 195th (51st Africa)
Namibia: 127th (33rd Africa)
Past International Records
Djibouti 2011 to date: 0-0-0
Namibia 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Djibouti 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-6-0
Namibia 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-0
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Djibouti: In November 2007, Djibouti beat Somalia 1-0 to advance to Round 2 of World Cup qualifying. That win remains the ONLY senior level win Djibouti has EVER recorded. They are the lowest ranked team in African qualifying and one of the worst teams in the world. Last games they played were a string of 3 friendlies in late 2009 which they lost by a combined score of 13-0 to Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia. Sufficed to say, Djibouti could be in for a rough couple of games in November.
Namibia: Namibia will come in to this game on a 3-game unbeaten streak pending the results of a friendly against Lesotho and will take no small comfort in knowing who they have as an opponent. Namibia, like many African teams is short on international experience so a pair of games against a team like Djibouti will help for them to continue gelling as a team and to prepare for Round 2. Namibia finished 2010 qualifying at 2-4 with wins over Kenya and Zimbabwe, but they will need more in Round 2 this time around if they wish to advance past that stage.
Games
Game 1
Namibia at Djibouti
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade National Gouled, Djibouti, Djibouti
Game 2
Djibouti at Namibia
November 15, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Location: Sam Nujoma Stadium, Windhoek, Namibia
Namibia isn't a great team in their own right but they'll probably look like it on the field against Djibouti. Of course, most teams would look like one against Djibouti. Barring one of the greatest upsets in football history, Namibia will be advancing to Group 6 of Round 2, joining either Kenya or Seychelles along with Malawi and Nigeria.
Pairing 4-Liberia vs. Mauritius
Mauritius withdrew from qualifying on October 31, 2011. Liberia has been advanced to Group 10 of Round 2 in CAF qualifying where they will face Angola, Senegal and Uganda.
Pairing 5-Comoros vs. Mozambique
World Ranking
Comoros: 183rd (47th Africa)
Mozambique: 110th (27th Africa)
Past International Records
Comoros 2011 to date: 0-4-3
Mozambique 2011 to date: 2-3-1
Comoros 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-0-2
Mozambique 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-5-3
Head-to-Head Record: 2-0-0 Mozambique
Team Glimpses
Comoros: Attempting to qualify for the first time in their history, Comoros faces an uphill battle having failed to win a game in the past 2 years. Comoros posted a series of draws at this eyar's Indian Ocean Island Games but the competition faced in that tournament is a sizeable degree lower then Mozambique. Comoros hasn't exactly faired well against Mozambique either, losing to them twice in the past round of qualifying for the African Cup of Nations, including a 3-0 loss less then a month ago.
Mozambique: Mozambique is the highest seeded team in Round 1 and is coming off a 2010 qualifying campaign which saw them advance to Round 3 in Africa before falling in a group that featured traditional powers Nigeria and Tunisia. Like Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique is a former Portuguese colony and they have a number of Portuguese-born players on their squad. Mozambique also receives a boost from having a number of players based in foreign Premier leagues, always an advantage for smaller nations. Despite a poor run in 2012 African Cup qualifying, Mozambique should have a sizeable edge over Comoros with a 3-0 victory over the island nation fresh in the minds of the players.
Games
Game 1
Mozambique at Comoros
November 11, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EST
Location: Stade Said Mohamed Cheikh, Mitsamiouli, Comoros
Game 2
Comoros at Mozambique
November 15, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Location: Estadio do Zimpeto, Maputo, Mozambique
Mozambique would likely be favoured over any other team in this round of qualifying at this juncture. Against a weak side like Comoros who Mozambique has twice knocked off recently, they're miles ahead of their opponent. I expect this pairing to be out of reach after Game 1. Winner will advance to Group 7 in Round 2 where they will meet Egypt, Guinea and Zimbabwe.
Pairing 6-Equatorial Guinea vs. Madagascar
World Ranking
Equatorial Guinea: 155th (41st Africa)
Madagascar: 165th (43rd Africa)
Past International Records
Equatorial Guinea 2011 to date: 3-2-1
Madagascar 2011 to date: 0-4-1
Equatorial Guinea 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-5-0
Madagascar 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-2-3
Head-to-Head Record: 0-0-0
Team Glimpses
Equatorial Guinea: Still need to improve greatly if they want to qualify but this team has come a long way since last which saw them lose 5 of 6 games. Equatorial Guinea has made a point of playing against stronger competition and the improvement has shown in their results. They've beaten all the teams ranked near or beneath them and most recently tied Cameroon, one of the best nations in Africa. If they can at least compete with teams in that echelon, they'll stand a shot at making some noise this qualifying campaign.
Madagascar: Not sure what to make of this team and how they've performed this year. Madagascar has paired close losses to powerhouses like Iran and Nigeria with bad losses to Ethiopia and Guinea. Are they the team that can play with Iran? Or are they the team that gets blown out by mid-level African nations. Equatorial Guinea will be a good measuring stick to see which is true of this team. Madagascar was a bit of a shock last campaign, in contention to win their Round 2 group until the last day, a group that featured Ivory Coast among others. Not knowing what to expect could be dangerous for Equatorial Guinea. Or they could coast through. We'll see.
Games
Game 1
Madagascar at Equatorial Guinea
November 11, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EST
Location: Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo, Equatorial Guinea
Game 2
Equatorial Guinea at Madagascar
November 15, 2011
Time: 6:30 am EST
Location: Mahamasina Municipal Stadium, Antananarivo, Madagascar
In a round where there really isn't a lot of intrigue, this is a matchup with a lot of potential for excitement. I think that if the two teams play to their capabilities, every minute of both games will be needed to decide a winner. I'm leaning towards thinking Equatorial Guinea takes the win though simply because we know what to expect from them. They're a solid mid-level African team with the potential to pull some upsets in the next round. We don't what Madagascar really is right now and that's a problem for them heading in to a tough 2-game set. Winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 2 where they'll face Cape Verde, Sierra Leone and Tunisia.
Round 1 Predictions
Kenya def. Seychelles
Togo def. Guinea-Bissau
Namibia def. Djibouti
Liberia def. Mauritius*
Mozambique def. Comoros
Equatorial Guinea def. Madagascar
*-Not being played although I had this part done up before they withdrew.
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