October 2011 Review: North America-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-El Salvador def. Dominican Republic 2-1 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic on October 7, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Osael Romero (37'), Lester Blanco (67')
• Dominican Republic Goals-Erick Ozuna (54')

First goal of the game came on a penalty kick from Osael Romero off of a Dominican Republic red card. Rather then fold against the superior Salvadoran team, the Dominicans pushed forward and managed an equalizer early in the second half. The numerical disadvantage eventually caught up with the home team though and El Salvador was able to escape with the victory.

Game 6-Suriname def. Cayman Islands 1-0 in George Town, Cayman Islands on October 7, 2011

• Suriname Goals-Giovanni Drenthe (57')

2nd straight 1-0 victory for Suriname over Cayman Islands in qualifying. No surprise that they've beaten the Caymans in both games but Suriname's inability to score goals against this level of opposition has to be troubling for the Suriname team. 1 goal a game isn't typically enough firepower to secure advancement in a group like this.

Game 7-Dominican Republic def. Suriname 3-1 in Paramaribo, Suriname on October 11, 2011

• Dominican Republic Goals-Jonathan Fana (9'), Erick Ozuna (47', 75')
• Suriname Goals-Naldo Kwassie (80')

Best game of qualifying for Dominican Republic who finally showed the form people which people thought could propel them to the top of this group. They jumped out to an early lead and didn't let off the gas pedal until the final whistle blew, picking up a decisive 3-1 win. Too little, too late for the Dominicans in the group but they should have a shot at second place in this group.

Game 8-El Salvador def. Cayman Islands 4-0 in San Salvador, El Salvador on October 11, 2011

• El Salvador Goals-Victor Turcios (6'), Steve Purdy (13'), Jaime Alas (45'), Herbert Sosa (88')

This game almost didn't happen, delayed 90 minutes due to torrential rains in San Salvador. Once the game did start, Cayman Islands found itself in a different kind of downpour, one coming from a proficient Salvadoran offence who easily went out to a 3-0 halftime lead. El Salvador remains perfect in qualifying with this win and will need only a draw against Suriname in November to advance.

Thoughts

Cayman Islands-Eliminated with 3 games remaining, Cayman Islands has a firm grasp on the bottom of the group. A pair of games against Dominican Republic in November will give them a chance to get some points out of qualifying but there's no question that they were out of their depth against El Salvador and Suriname. Cayman Islands have managed just 1 goal so far in qualifying, a meaningless penalty late in the game in a 4-1 loss to El Salvador.

Dominican Republic-This team is continuing to improve as they play more games and should continue that trend in November as they face Cayman Islands twice. Unfortunately for them, the improvements they're making are too late for this team to advance to Round 3. A draw and a win against Suriname are great steps for this team but El Salvador was always going to be the team to beat and a pair of losses against the Salvadorans are what torpedoed this team's shot at advancement.

El Salvador-Their last game against Cayman Islands was the first time this campaign that they've looked in complete control of a match. I'm still not sure what to make of them as a result. With a 5-point cushion, they should be clear in to the next round but awaiting them there is Costa Rica and Mexico. Based on what they've shown so far, El Salvador is not in good enough form to compete with those 2 opponents next round.

Suriname-Suriname could not afford to drop any points before facing off against El Salvador next month, but they've managed just 1 point of a possible 6 against Dominican Republic so far. As a result, Suriname has been stuck with needing to beat El Salvador 2 games in succession in order to advance. With just 4 goals for in 4 games and a +0 goal differential, Suriname's shot at advancement looks bleak at best.

Going Forward

A pair of 2-game series to be played between Cayman Islands-Dominican Republic and El Salvador-Suriname. Both Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic are eliminated so that series only has a bearing on final standing. El Salvador and Suriname meanwhile will compete for the right to advance to Round 3. Down 5 points, Suriname must win both November games against El Salvador if they wish to advance. Should they draw or lose either game, El Salvador will go through.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

El Salvador-12 pts
Suriname-8 pts
x-Dominican Republic-2 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

Actual:

El Salvador-12 pts
Suriname-7 pts
x-Dominican Republic-4 pts
x-Cayman Islands-0 pts

Gave Dominican Republic benefit of the doubt drawing Suriname. Turns out they wiped the floor with them.