October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 2

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-South Korea def. United Arab Emirates 2-1 in Suwon, South Korea on October 11, 2011

• South Korea Goals-Park Chu-Young (55')
• U.A.E. Goals-Hamdan Al Kamali (OG 64'), Ismail Matar (90+2')

A marked difference in play from U.A.E. was unsurprisingly not enough to overcome South Korea on the road, but U.A.E can take solace in the drastically improved performance they showed under new coach Abdullah Masfar. U.A.E. looked lost in their first few qualifying matches but against South Korea they were defending well, challenging for possession and creating scoring chances against a superior opponent. The own goal ensured South Korea of the victory but had it not happened, things could have been very different in this game.

Game 6-Kuwait tied Lebanon 2-2 in Beirut, Lebanon on October 11, 2011

• Kuwait Goals-Musaed Neda (51')
• Lebanon Goals-Hassan Maatouk (15',86'), Mahmoud Younes (OG 89')

Not the most technically impressive match in qualifying but certainly one of the more entertaining ones. A heavy underdog going in, Lebanon scored quickly at home and held a lead in to halftime before Musaed Neda of Kuwait slotted home an equalizer. The game went back and forth until late in the second half when Hassan Maatouk scored on a penalty kick which appeared to be the winner for Lebanon, securing a stunning victory. But a defensive zone lapse just minutes later led to a Lebanese own goal, silencing the crowd and ending the game in a draw.

Thoughts

Kuwait-Just barely escaped from Beirut with a draw and they have reason to be concerned going forward in qualifying. You're always looking for your team to be improving throughout qualifying. After defeating U.A.E. and tying South Korea, barely tying Lebanon is a huge step backwards for this team. Moreover, the 2 teams beneath Kuwait in the standings have both made significant improvements over a short period of time. Holding on to a tenuous lead against a pair of surging teams is a tough chore, made more difficult when Kuwait is not playing near its best.

Lebanon-Against all odds, Lebanon is hanging around in this group but they still have a long way to go if they wish to advance. That advancement is even a consideration for this team halfway through group play is a feat for a team ranked lowest of all Round 3 teams in Asian qualifying. With a game remaining against South Korea, Lebanon probably needs wins against Kuwait and U.A.E. in their remaining games, an unenviable task but one slightly more possible then it would have appeared a couple months ago.

South Korea-No reason for concern right now as even on an off-day they are better then any team in this group. But the last couple games have been less then impressive for the Koreans and their play in this round might not cut it when they get to Round 4. It's possible that South Korea was merely struggling with an improved U.A.E. side but off the heels of a tie with Kuwait, this is hardly the world-beating team people expected of South Korea coming in to this round.

U.A.E.-Good news is they looked better by leaps and bounds against South Korea over any other performance so far this year. Bad news is that with 3 games to go, U.A.E. still has no points and is at least 6 points shy of the threshold they'll need to reach in order to advance. U.A.E.'s improved performance turned some heads this month, but it doesn't look as if they have the games left to make up the deficit they've placed themselves in.

Going Forward

November 11th is going to feature a pair of rematches from October as South Korea visits U.A.E. and Lebanon travels to Kuwait. Both games carry intrigue as U.A.E. needs an upset win if they want a shot at advancing while the winner of Lebanon-Kuwait will find themselves in solidly in 2nd (or 1st) place. On November 15th, South Korea will visit Lebanon while U.A.E. travels to Kuwait. What is at stake that day will depend entirely on the results of the 11th.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

South Korea-7 pts
Kuwait-7 pts
Lebanon-3 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts

Actual:

South Korea-7 pts
Kuwait-5 pts
Lebanon-4 pts
U.A.E.-0 pts