October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Jordan def. Singapore 3-0 in Jalan Besar, Singapore on October 11, 2011

• Jordan Goals-Abdullah Deeb (11'), Anas Bani Yaseen (54'), Ahmad Hayel (64')

Another win for Jordan who is appearing to get more comfortable in qualifying with every game that passes. A header by Deeb in the 11th minute gave Jordan the advantage and they put the game away early in the second-half with a pair of goals from close range. Singapore actually played one of their better games in qualifying so far but Jordan in their current form is a tough challenge for anyone in Asia.

Game 6-Iraq def. China 1-0 in Shenzhen, China on October 11, 2011

• Iraq Goals-Younis Mahmoud (45')

In my October Awards, I named Iraqi Coach Zico as the Lucky Guy of the month. Reflecting upon this game, I'm still not sure exactly how Iraq managed to pick up 3 points in this game. Chinwas all over Iraq the entire match with countless chances and a wide margin of victory in terms of possession. China also had the luxury of a 25-minute period of 11-on-10 play when Iraq's Bassim Abbas was red-carded. And yet, a long cross off of a Chinese mistake led to the only goal of the game, netted for Iraq. Based on quality of play, China should have won the game. But results don't always go the way of the better team in sport and that was the case in this game.

Thoughts

China-I said last month that China's biggest problem plaguing them was finishing touch. Everything else was solid but they just needed to be more clinical in the opposing penalty area. Yeah, that hasn't happened yet. Granted, Iraqi goalkeeper Mohammed Gassid is the best in the group and made some fine saves but there is no excuse for losing at home to an undermanned team in a game you dominated. Results like that will cripple a team in qualifying, and no surprise, China is currently not in a position to advance as of now. China has just 3 goals for in 3 games, not good enough in a group with teams like Iraq and Jordan.

Iraq-Best course of action after a game like they had this month? Just move on. Iraq was not at their best and was frankly lucky to emerge a winner. But they did get a win and at the end of the day, that's what matters. The win was doubly important though because Iraq has forfeited away the ability to host their 2 remaining home games in Iraq. Every game will be a road game for them but a neutral site venue is still preferable to a hostile road venue. Picking up 3 points from China in China is a huge boost to Iraqi qualifying hopes. Iraq has China again next month and this win has given them some breathing room for that match, scheduled to be played in Qatar.

Jordan-Jordan is very close to clinching a Round 4 berth in Asia, a remarkable feat for a nation many pegged as being a surefire 3rd-place finisher in this group. Not only has Jordan been winning games they weren't expected to, they have been dominating their opponents both this round and last. In 5 qualifying matches for 2014 so far, Jordan has scored 17 goals and allowed just 2. Regardless of the opposition, those numbers are indicative of a very good team. Advancement to Round 4 seems a foregone conclusion now and I'm looking forward to seeing how they fare against the cream of the crop in Asia that round.

Singapore-With no points in 3 games, Singapore is on the verge of elimination and with just 1 goal in those matches, doesn't appear able to put up the fight necessary to stick around in this group. It's a tough situation for Singapore to be in, they're clearly the worst team in the group and while they would love to advance to the next round, realistic expectations for this team had to be low coming in to qualifying. Best case scenario for Singapore is to maybe play the role of spoiler going forward and possibly interfere with another team's hopes of advancing while redeeming some pride for Singapore.

Going Forward

Full 4-game slate for Asia in November. On November 11th, China has Iraq in a rematch in Doha, Qatar while Jordan will be looking to possibly clinch advancement when they host Singapore. China then travels to Singapore on November 15th while Jordan hosts Iraq. Biggest game on that schedule is the Iraq-China rematch. A Chinese victory puts them level with Iraq with 2 games to play while an Iraqi victory would put them 6 points ahead of China with Singapore still to play. Crucial game for both but a death sentence for China should they lose.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Jordan-9 pts
China-6 pts
Iraq-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Actual:

Jordan-9 pts
Iraq-6 pts
China-3 pts
Singapore-0 pts

Huge upset by Iraq in China. If China fails to advance, they'll be looking back and kicking themselves for that loss.