October 2011 Review: South America-Group 1

Standings



Game Results

Game 1-Uruguay def. Bolivia 4-2 in Montevideo, Uruguay on October 7, 2011

• Uruguay Goals-Luis Suarez (3'), Diego Lugano (25', 71'), Edinson Cavani (34')
• Bolivia Goals-Rudy Cardozo (17'), Marcelo Martins (87')

Despite allowing a pair of goals, Uruguay thoroughly controlled this game from start to finish, scoring just 3 minutes in to the contest and taking a 3-1 lead to halftime. A late Bolivian penalty kick kept the final scoreline at 2, in a game where Uruguay missed several chances on top of the 4 goals they scored. Uruguay's team was almost the exact same as the one that won the Copa America earlier this year and they showed that they have yet to suffer a drop in form from this summer.

Game 2-Ecuador def. Venezuela 2-0 in Quito, Ecuador on October 7, 2011

• Ecuador Goals-Jaime Ayovi (15'), Christian Benitez (28')

Ecuador came flying out of the gate offensively, relentlessly attacking Venezuela in the first half and building a 2-0 lead as a result. Once they had the 2-goal cushion, Ecuador was comfortable sitting back and riding out the game for a victory in their first qualifying match.

Game 3-Argentina def. Chile 4-1 in Buenos Aires, Argentina on October 7, 2011

• Argentina Goals-Gonzalo Higuain (7', 52', 63'), Lionel Messi (25')
• Chile Goals-Matias Fernandez (59')

Lack of attacking options certainly isn't an issue for Argentina. Using a 3-forward set of Higuain, Messi and Angel Di Maria, Argentina created havoc for the Chilean back line, with Higuain and Messi scoring all 4 Argentine goals, 3 of which were set up by Di Maria. Chile was expected to make this a competitive game but they had no answer for Argentina's talented forwards, all of whom start for either Barcelona or Real Madrid.

Game 4-Peru def. Paraguay 2-0 in Lima, Peru on October 7, 2011

• Peru Goals-Paolo Guerrero (46', 71')

Surprise of the day in South America. The Copa America showed Peru had improved as a team but a decisive victory against Paraguay seemed out of reach for the Peruvians. Not satisfied with a half-time draw, Peru exploded in the second half, notching a pair of goals from the feet of Paolo Guerrero on the way to the upset.

Game 5-Colombia def. Bolivia 2-1 in La Paz, Bolivia on October 11, 2011

• Colombia Goals-Dorlan Pabon (48'), Radamel Falcao (90+3')
• Bolivia Goals-Walter Flores (85')

Make no mistake, Bolivia is a weak team but beating them in La Paz is an impressive feat for anyone. Despite struggling with the altitude, Colombia managed to grab a lead at the start of the second half. The game appeared over when Bolivia equalized with little time remaining but an injury time goal by substitute Radamel Falcao gave Colombia a hard-earned victory in their first qualifying match of the campaign.

Game 6-Chile def. Peru 4-2 in Santiago, Chile on October 11, 2011

• Chile Goals-Waldo Ponce (2'), Eduardo Vargas (18'), Gary Medel (48'), Humberto Suazo (63')
• Peru Goals-Claudio Pizarro (49'), Jefferson Farfan (60')

Better from Chile who after being on the wrong end of an offensive clinic from Argentina , put on their own offensive show at home against upstart Peru. Credit to both teams for how they performed. Chile ran out to a 3-0 lead but as has been their downfall before, saw that lead shrink to 3-2 before putting the game away. Peru could have folded but was able to claw their way back, albeit briefly to try and take some points away from this game.

Game 7-Paraguay tied Uruguay 1-1 in Asuncion, Paraguay on October 11, 2011

• Paraguay Goals-Richard Ortiz (90+2')
• Uruguay Goals-Diego Forlan (68')

A tougher test for Paraguay and they managed to snag a draw at the last second to avoid losing their first 2 games of qualifying. While 1 point is better then nothing, Paraguay has to be discouraged that they needed all 90+ minutes to find the goal against Uruguay, especially after failing to score in their first match against Peru.

Game 8-Venezuela def. Argentina 1-0 in Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela on October 11, 2011

• Venezuela Goals-Fernando Amorebieta (62')

So we know scoring isn't a problem for Argentina, but apparently spreading goals around to multiple games is. The magnitude of this game cannot be underscored; this is the first ever time in history that Venezuela has defeated Argentina in a senior level match. Confidence gained from this win could be huge for Venezuela who are attempting to gain a berth in the World Cup Finals for the first game ever.

Thoughts

Argentina-Uh oh. A blowout win of a top-flight team followed by a let-down loss to a weak opponent sounds very similar to the script this team followed last qualifying campaign where they barely qualified. Uruguay is the only team in qualifying with arguably more talent then Argentina, and yet this team is continuing its penchant for underperforming to reasonable standards. They'll win some games just based on talent alone but losing to Venezuela isn't going to inspire fear in any of their opponents.

Bolivia-2 losses in 2 games, one of them to Colombia at home in the most hostile venues imaginable. Bolivia was always going to be facing a difficult road to qualification but there always exists hope when a new campaign starts. But this Bolivia teams appears to be just like the ones before it, destined to find itself at the bottom of CONMEBOL standings in the future.

Chile-After 2 matchdays in South America, Chile is tied for the group lead in both goals for and goals against. And that sums up Chile in a nutshell. Fast-paced, attacking soccer with a premium placed in 0ffence. Lax defensive zone responsibility is sacrificed in favour of an all-out offensive attack designed to simply outscore their opponents. After games against Uruguay and Paraguay in November, they face a long stretch of winnable games, and expect them to emerge from the middle of the pack at that point.

Colombia-Still too early to tell exactly what to expect from Colombia. Only played 1 game in October against a weak Bolivian team. Granted, the win was in La Paz but no one really knows how bad Bolivia really is. Colombia hosts Venezuela and Argentina next month and we should know more about this team after those games.

Ecuador-The other team to play just one game in October, Ecuador put on their best impression of Chile against Venezuela, beating them up on the way to an easy win. Like Colombia, it's a little tough to glean anything from a single-game performance but an impressive first half performance along with a victory over the USA in a friendly on the 11th shows that Ecuador is in top form right now and should be in contention to qualify until the end.

Paraguay-The most disappointing team in CONMEBOL this month, the Copa America runners-up were an injury time goal away from 2 losses to open qualifying, with Ecuador and Chile on the immediate horizon. Along with Bolivia, they are the only team in South America without a win on their resume and they'll need to find one in November, if only for morale purposes. Going on a 7-month hiatus from qualifying with no wins in 4 games could destroy the fabric of this team.

Peru-Suffered a loss in October but I'm really impressed by the dramatic turnaround this team has made in the past couple years. Defeating Paraguay and hanging around offensively with Chile would have been out of the question for this team just a year ago, and yet they look like one of the best teams on the continent right now. Only plays once in November and it will be a tough road game against Ecuador. While it's very early in qualifying, it's entirely possible only one of these teams qualifies and head-to-head matches will be critical to that battle.

Uruguay-With 4 points, Uruguay leads CONMEBOL qualifying and is the only team to play 2 games and not have a loss so far in South America. With Argentina struggling and Brazil not partaking in qualifying, this team is the clear number one in CONMEBOL right now and played like it in October, thrashing Bolivia and just missing a victory against Paraguay. Uruguay meets Chile in November in a must-see game for qualifying fanatics.

Venezuela-Defeating Argentina for the first time ever is a huge feat for this team and one that Venezuela is still likely talking about. But one game does not make a difference in qualifying and Venezuela still needs to improve drastically if they wish to qualify for the first time. They'll get a pair of winnable games in November, at Colombia and home to Bolivia which could determine what path this team will take for Venezuela. Will they be at the top half of the bracket facing potential qualification, or languishing at the bottom of the standings, fighting only for respectability.

Going Forward

November 11th-Argentina will host Bolivia in Buenos Aires. Bolivia should be severely overmatched although last time these two met in qualifying, Bolivia came away a 6-1 victor. Ecuador travels to Paraguay for a game in Asuncion. Ecuador will be looking to come flying out of the gate like in their first match. Paraguay on the other hand is seeking their first win in their third qualifying game. Venezuela travels to Colombia and Colombia has a shot to open qualifying with 2 straight wins, a great start for a team absent from the Cup Finals since the 1990s. In the game of the day, Chile visits Uruguay in what should be an offensive explosion. These two teams ared tied for the continental lead in goals for with 5 in 2 games.

November 15th-Colombia hosts its second game of November but with a much tougher opponent on the pitch in Argentina. Argentina should be favoured but after their debacle in Venezuela, they cannot take anything for granted. Bolivia visits Venezuela in a battle with 2 of the worst teams in CONMEBOL. Still too early for games to be must-wins but a Bolivia loss would likely mean 4 losses in 4 games, not a start conducive to qualifying. Paraguay continues their brutal stretch of games when they travel to Chile in a battle between the Chilean offence and Paraguay's vaunted back line. And Peru faces Ecuador in Quito in a battle of two teams who are sleepers to qualify from this confederation.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Argentina-4 pts
Chile-4 pts
Uruguay-4 pts
Ecuador-3 pts
Paraguay-2 pts
Bolivia-1 pts
Colombia-1 pts
Peru-1 pts
Venezuela-0 pts

Actual:

Uruguay-4 pts
Argentina-3 pts
Ecuador-3 pts
Colombia-3 pts
Peru-3 pts
Chile-3 pts
Venezuela-3 pts
Paraguay-1 pts
Bolivia-0 pts