October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 4

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Australia def. Oman 3-0 in Sydney, Australia on October 11, 2011

• Australia Goals-Brett Holman (8'), Joshua Kennedy (65'), Mile Jedinak (85')

An easy win for Australia helps them maintain their perfect record while Oman still has a firm grasp on last place in Group 4. Australia was not able to put the game out of reach until the middle of the second half but a lackluster effort by Oman never made victory in doubt for the Aussies. Biggest problem for Oman should be obvious; they have no goals in 3 games of round 3 and just 4 goals in 5 games this qualifying campaign. Oman's lack of offensive output will be the downfall for this team going forward.

Game 6-Thailand tied Saudi Arabia 0-0 in Bangkok, Thailand on October 11, 2011

Both sides will be disappointed with the draw in this game. Thailand had a golden opportunity to grab a 5-point lead over 3rd place but could not manage a goal at home. Saudi Arabia on the other hand now has a pair of goalless draws against Thailand and Oman, the two teams it must absolutely finish ahead of in order to advance to Round 4.

Thoughts

Australia-A win in their next game will give Australia a berth in Round 4 and with a return date against Oman up first followed by a game against Thailand, advancement looks to be no problem for the Aussies. After falling behind to Thailand in their first game, Australia has been unstoppable, pounding Saudi Arabia and Oman and keeping a perfect record. Australia is not just the best team in the group but arguably the best in the continent and are showing that form this campaign.

Oman-3 games, no goals for and 6 goals against. It's amazing really that this team even has 1 point from this round of qualifying. More amazing is that they are by no means out of contention, just 3 points behind Thailand for second place with 3 games to play. But if Oman wants to advance then all facets of their game need to improve. 0 goals for in round 3 and 6 goals surrendered in their past 2 games will both hold this team back from succeeding.

Saudi Arabia-I'm not a huge fan of making bold predictions when it comes to sport but Ill make one here. If Saudi Arabia does not win their game against Thailand, this team will not advance to Round 4. More then any other team in Asian qualifying, Saudi Arabia has underperformed and only a bit of luck has kept them within a win of second place. Saudi Arabia has a probable loss against Australia left on their schedule. No win in November against Thailand = no berth in the next round.

Thailand-We've established by now that Thailand is not the underdog they appeared to be when qualifying started. Now they beg the question though, can they make the leap from contender to advance to Round 4 participant? Thailand hosts Australia in November in a game where Australia should be favoured which makes the Saudi Arabia game crucial. Win that game and Thailand will be able to smell advancement. Lose and they'll have months to wait for their final game which would be a must-win scenario.

Going Forward

November 11th: Australia visits Oman and barring a miracle will pick up a win and clinch advancement to Round 4. Thailand visits Saudi Arabia in the most intriguing match of the day for Asia. Second place is riding on the result and the post-game point difference could be anywhere from +1 in favour of Saudi Arabia to +5 in favour of Thailand.

November 15th: Oman visits Saudi Arabia. Oman will need a win just to stay alive and Saudi Arabia will be looking at the last qualifying match in which they'll be favoured. Australia will visit Thailand and should be favoured in that match although Thailand has played them the closest so far and has this game at home which should be beneficial.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Australia: 9 pts
Thailand: 6 pts
Saudi Arabia: 1 pts
Oman: 1 pts

Actual:

Australia: 9 pts
Thailand: 4 pts
Saudi Arabia: 2 pts
Oman: 1 pts