October 2011 Review: Asia-Group 5

Standings



Game Results

Game 5-Qatar def. Indonesia 3-2 in Jakarta, Indonesia on October 11, 2011

• Qatar Goals-Abdulaziz Al-Sulaiti (14'), Khalfan Ibrahim (32'), Mohammed Razak (59')
• Indonesia Goals-Cristian Gonzales (26', 35')

Back-and-forth battle as Qatar surrendered a pair of first-half leads in quick succession before notching the winner in the second half. Both teams needed victories in this match and fought hard for 3 points. Qatar should feel lucky they escaped with a victory though. Qatar is by far a better team but were irresponsible in their own end, twice surrendering leads in the span of 10 minutes.

Game 6-Iran def. Bahrain 6-0 in Tehran, Iran on October 11, 2011

• Iran Goals-Seyed Hosseini (22'), Mojtaba Jabbari (34'), Hadi Aghili (42'), Andranik Teymourian (62'), Karim Ansarifard (75'), Gholamreza Rezaei (83')

Iran is typically very strong at home but this result stunned pretty much everyone. Bahrain finished aheadof Iran in 2010 qualifying but looked helpless in this match as Iran rained down shots from all over the Bahrainian zone and ran circles around the defenders on their way to a blowout victory. Iran is a team that can go through highs and lows, but this was about as high as any team can get. Huge win for Iran which teams all over Asia will have taken notice of.

Thoughts

Bahrain-A win in Tehran was always going to be a challenge but they could not have possibly expected to fall 6-0. All you can don after a loss like that is to forget about it and move on. Bahrain is just 1 point back of Qatar for second place and still has a game to go against their Gulf neighbours. Best for them to just accept the Iran loss and move forward with their attempt to advance.

Indonesia-Played their best game of 2011 against Qatar and still came up short. I don't know if there's anything Indonesia can do to be a factor in some form in this group. All 3 opponents have an advantage in talent and coaching which Indonesia has yet to be able to compete against. Indonesia has just 1 home game remaining against Iran so the road won't be getting any easier from here on out.

Iran-I said last month that while this team was the best in the group, they'd need to play like it in order to ensure advancement. A 6-0 victory over quality opponent is a pretty strong response to that. Only question that remains for Iran is whether they can repeat this performance away from home. Iran has a pair of road games in November, including a repeat game against Bahrain. Iran could find itself flying high at the top of the group, or be forced to catch up in 2nd or 3rd depending on how they fare away from Tehran.

Qatar-Halfway through group play and I still don't know what Qatar is as a team yet.So far, Qatar's had a lackluster draw against Bahrain, an inspiring draw against Iran and a win over Indonesia which featured 5 lead changes. This team has been up and down all round in a group where any mistake could mean failure to advance. Not a favourable place to be in for a team looking to make an impact as the most recently announced future World Cup host.

Going Forward

November 11th: Iran travels to Bahrain for a rematch while Qatar hosts Indonesia. Indonesia was unable to top a second-rate Qatar performance at home so being on the road means a probable loss. Logic says Bahrain should be better off at home against Iran but it remains to be seen what mental scars remain from the 6-0 beatdown Iran just handed them.

November 15th: Iran visits Indonesia in a game where a mercy rule might need to be requested. Qatar also hosts Bahrain in the most pivotal game of the group. Assuming results of October are repeated, Bahrain will enter that game 4 points back of Qatar for second-place. A win will be necessary for them to stay alive and then a win over Indonesia in their final game should seal advancement for them. But they have to get past Qatar first.

Post-October Standing Predictions Revisited:

Prediction:

Iran-7 pts
Qatar-5 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Indonesia-0 pts

Actual:

Iran-7 pts
Qatar-5 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Indonesia-0 pts